A new poll from ABC15 Arizona and OH Predictive Insights has Republican Rep. Martha McSally ahead of Democrat Rep. Kyrsten Sinema for the senate seat, 52% to 45%.

However, I am taking it with a little bit of salt because the article doesn’t reveal its methodology and it was taken October 22 and 23…yet they just now release the numbers?

From ABC15 Arizona:

The exclusive ABC15 Arizona and OH Predictive Insights poll shows McSally with a seven-point lead with 52% of the vote compared to Sinema’s 45%.

Only 2% are undecided with 1% saying they’ll vote for Green Party candidate Angela Green.

The chief pollster for OH Predictive Insights says the shift in numbers is being linked to the confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh and the caravan of migrants headed to the United States.

“If Kavanaugh didn’t happen I think it’d be an extremely tight race,” said chief pollster Mike Noble. “If not, I’d actually say the edge would go to Sinema but after seeing the polling – seeing the results – everything else – I think that McSally will end up winning coming election night.”

RealClearPolitics wrote that the poll had 600 likely voters with a margin of error of 4.

However, the other polls at RCP that do not involve OHI or The New York Times/Siena, all have Sinema ahead of McSally except for Fox News, which has the ladies tied. A poll from Gravis in early September had McSally in the lead.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/az/arizona_senate_mcsally_vs_sinema-6328.html#polls

At National Review, Jim Geraghty wrote that 1,230,433 Arizonians have already voted, which is almost the total number of votes cast in the 2014 midterm elections.

Out of the 3.7 million voters in Arizona, 525,647 have registered as Republicans and 413,005 as Democrats while “8,250 are classified ‘minor parties’ and 283,531 are classified ‘other’ or unaffiliated.”

Here are the early voting stats from Thursday morning:

http://www.arizona.vote/early-ballot-statistics

Geraghty already did the math and concluded that if Sinema wants to pull ahead in the early voting counts, she needs to win “the unaffiliated and minor-party voters by a roughly 70-30 split.” That may prove difficult because Green Party candidate Angela Green more than likely grabbed votes from the 6,463 party registered members. If that’s the case, then Sinema needs to go up 71-29 or 72-28.

This leads us to Election Day, which is next Tuesday:

What we don’t know in this equation is how many Arizonans will vote on Election Day. If the turnout is low like in 2014, with about 1.5 million votes cast, Sinema would need to win the Election Day vote by an overwhelming margin, something like a 73 percent to 27 percent split. But if Arizona’s statewide turnout is higher, like in 2010, when about 1.75 million people voted, Sinema could attempt to make up that 112,642-vote margin out of another half-million voters. That would require a 62-38 split in Sinema’s favor — less difficult, but still not easy. An NBC News poll found Sinema leading among self-identified independents, 58 percent to 32 percent.

Arizona’s total turnout could end up being higher than 2010; the higher the remaining turnout, the better chance she has of overcoming McSally’s advantage in the early vote. And it’s worth keeping in mind that it’s possible that Sinema is doing better among registered Republicans than McSally is among registered Democrats; the NBC poll showed Sinema winning Democrats 95 percent to 4 percent, while McSally’s margin among Republicans was 88 percent to 7 percent.

Geraghty didn’t mention the CBS/YouGov poll, which has McSally only bringing in 1% of the support from Democrats while Sinema has the support of 9% Republicans. The poll also showed that 12% of the conservatives went for Sinema and only 2% chose McSally.

In that same poll, 46% of the independents chose McSally compared to 43% for Sinema. Despite that, 52% of the moderates picked Sinema while only 23% chose McSally.

The latest CNN poll gave Sinema the lead, 51% to 47%, and she won over the independents 52% to 44%.

Overall, RCP has Sinema with a 0.7% edge over McSally. The Cook Political Report still has the race listed as a Toss-Up.

In other words, this race will go down to the last second on Election Day.