More signs Tracy Mitrano’s challenge to Tom Reed is going nowhere (#NY23)

More signs Tracy Mitrano’s challenge to Tom Reed is going nowhere (#NY23)

Siena College Research Institute, based in Loudonville, New York, near Albany, is among the few mainstream polling organizations to poll upstate NY congressional races.

Siena recently released polling results for several upstate NY races:

Faso Leads Delgado by 5 Points, 45-40 Percent (NY-19)

Incumbent Tenney & Challenger Brindisi Locked in a Near Dead Heat (NY-22)

Katko Has 15-Point Lead Over Balter, 54-39 Percent (NY-24)

Upstate NY congressional races are critical to Democrats’ attempt to recapture the House. While many people think of New York as uniformly Democrat, in fact upstate New York’s congressional delegation is overwhelmingly Republican. If Democrats can pick off 2-3 Republicans upstate, that will improve their chances dramatically.

But what about NY-23, where Democrat Tracy Mitrano is challenging incumbent Republican Tom Reed?

In response to my email inquiring whether Siena planned to poll NY-23, Siena Research Director Don Levy wrote:

We have no plans at present to poll the 23rd.

That’s more really bad news for Mitrano, another sign that NY-23 is not deemed competitive enough for a mainstream polling organization to bother. There is no public polling that I’ve been able to find, and I was hoping Siena would jump in.

As we documented, Mitrano’s own internal polling shows Reed with approximately a 15 point lead. Mitrano’s campaign has not been forthcoming with the full poll results, choosing instead to publicize a misleading measurement of favorability. But the numbers Mitrano Communications Director Aryns Fields did disclose were horrible for Mitrano.

I wrote about the Mitrano internal poll in my post, Rep. Tom Reed has commanding lead according to his opponent’s internal polling (#NY23):

The statistic used to measure favorability when Mitrano promoted the results on social media was Reed’s “Very favorable” rating. As readers undoubtedly know, it’s common to have multiple levels of favorability or unfavorability, such as Somewhat Favorable, Favorable, or Very Favorable (or at least two of those). Mitrano has not disclose the total of all the favorables, only the “Very Favorable” number. That’s suspicious….

The scant information released, and the unusual way the favorability was presented, led me to contact the Mitrano campaign for more information. While some information was provided, the campaign refused to provide the questions asked and answer choices

Saw the report on Upstate Politics regarding your internal polling. I may write about it and would like to see the full polling, including the portion showing what percentage of people polled support you versus Congressman Reed.

Would you please email it to me?

Mitrano’s Communications Director Aryns Fields responded:

Thank you so much for reaching out about this. We are keeping the poll and crosstabs internal but I would be glad to share the results of that question.

When asked to choose a candidate for Congress, 29% said Tom Reed, 22% said Tracy Mitrano, and 49% said they would not vote.

…. That means a 51% voter turnout, which is reasonable. It also means that of the people voting Reed has 29% of the 52%, or put another way, roughly 58% of those voting would vote for Reed. Mitrano would have 22% of the 51%, or roughly 44% of those voting.

I’d much rather see the raw data and full poll result. But all I have is what the Mitrano campaign has provided, which shows that Reed has roughly a 58%-44% lead. That actually makes sense. It’s about the margin of Reed’s victory in 2016.

So it’s clear that the Mitrano campaign’s internal poll, being spun to supporters as good news, is actually horrible news for Mitrano.

Maybe that’s why the DCCC is staying out of the race.

Nate Silver’s 538 also does not view the race as competitive. Its forecast for NY-23 projects a 15 point Reed win:

As we know from Trump’s 2016 win, sometimes these forecasts can be wrong, very wrong. But unlike the 2016 presidential election, there’s nothing on the ground to suggest such a groundswell of support for Mitrano that she could overcome an R+6 district that went for Trump by 15 points, with a multi-term Republican incumbent who defeated well-financed Democrats by double-digits in the last two elections.

Mitrano, of course, pushes on, seeking support and donations, touting that misleading “favorability” statistic.

Donating to Mitrano, at this point, seems like throwing cash down the drain.

[Featured Image: Tracy Mitrano campaign video]

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