“effects will not be felt equally across different regions of the country”
Small liberal arts colleges will likely feel the brunt of this. We will see more school closings.
The Washington Examiner reports:
College enrollment predicted to fall by 15 percent starting in 2025
A new report by economists at Carleton College predicts that universities nationwide will see a significant enrollment decrease starting in 2025.
According to Nathan Grawe, a professor of economics at the college in Northfield, Minn., most colleges and universities will start seeing a significant reduction in enrollment beginning in 2025 due to the marked decline in the birth rate that occurred between 2008 and 2011. According to Grawe, the major reason behind the decline in birthrate was the uncertainty created by the financial crisis in 2008.
“When the financial crisis hit in 2008, young people viewed that economic uncertainty as a cause for reducing fertility,” explained Grawe. “The number of kids born from 2008 to 2011 fell precipitously. Fast forward 18 years to 2026 and we see that there are fewer kids reaching college-going age.”
While many universities will undoubtedly experience enrollment decreases during this time period, the effects will not be felt equally across different regions of the country, according to the report. States with fewer colleges and universities, such as those concentrated in the Midwest, may actually observe increases in overall student enrollment during this period, the economists predict. But states that share a large percentage of the total colleges and universities, particularly those located in the Northeast, could see a massive decline in overall enrollment.
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