At one level, nothing has changed about Trump. He still stirs the pot on Twitter, the staffing changes continue, and the sense of turmoil never seems to leave.
Certainly, #TheResistance against Trump has not changed. If anything, the opposition to Trump has gone from foaming at the mouth to … Exorcist-like goo bursting head spins. And that’s just CNN.
But something has changed in Trump’s favor. Recent polling consistently shows a meaningful uptick in Trump’s job approval.
This RCP chart shows a steady improvement since the end of 2017:
A 42% approval rating may not seem like much, but as CNN notes, that’s not far off where Obama and Reagan were at similar points in their first term:
Overall, 42% approve of the way Trump is handling the presidency, 54% disapprove. Approval is up 7 points overall since February, including 6-point increases among Republicans (from 80% to 86% now) and independents (from 35% to 41% now). Trump’s approval rating remains below that of all of his modern-era predecessors at this stage in their first term after being elected, though Trump only trails Ronald Reagan and Barack Obama by a narrow 4 points at this point in their first terms.
These charts from 538 show the Obama and Reagan approval ratings at similar times, each of whom was under 50%:
This rise, CNN notes, is despite almost 2/3 of people believing the Stormy Daniels and similar accusations of affairs:
Almost two-thirds of Americans say they believe the women alleging affairs with Trump over the president (63% say so), while just 21% say they believe Trump’s denials of those affairs. And about half (51%) say the two women pursuing lawsuits seeking to free themselves from non-disclosure agreements relating to any relationship they may have had with Trump ought to be free to discuss those alleged relationships.There are party and gender divides on both questions. Women are more apt than men to say they believe the women claiming affairs (70% to 54%) and that holds even among those who are Republicans or lean toward the Republican party (45% of women who consider themselves GOP or lean that way say they believe the women compared with just 25% of GOP and GOP-leaning men). Democrats are far more apt than Republicans to say the women should be free from their NDAs (78% among Democrats, 49% among independents and 25% among Republicans say so), and while women break in favor of allowing the women to discuss their relationships (59% say they should be free to discuss them, 34% say that the agreements should remain in place), men tilt the opposite way (48% say the agreements should hold and 43% say that they should be free to discuss their relationships).
So what’s going on? The conventional wisdom is that Trump’s approval ratings rise thanks to economy, tax overhaul.
It makes sense that the economy and tax plan have helped. But it must be more than that. Perhaps the larger public has tired of the anti-Trump insanity. Perhaps Trump Derangement Syndrome has run its political usefulness.
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