#PA18 Special Election RESULTS
Can Saccone silence the Lamb?
11:31 PM ET: Race too close to call. From Politico:
The Pennsylvania special congressional election is too close to call, with Democrat Conor Lamb leading Republican Rick Saccone, 49.9 percent to 49.5 percent — a margin of only 755 votes — with 99 percent of precincts reporting, according to The Associated Press, which said it would not declare a winner Tuesday night.
Thousands of absentee ballots are still outstanding. After those are tallied, the trailing candidate has the option to request a recount, according to state law.
Apparently there is no automatic recount. There would have to be a petition filed signed by 3 voters in each precinct within 5 days of certification of the vote in each precinct.
This #PA18 situation is crazy: not only is a recount possible, but Lamb (D) & Saccone (R) must decide which district(s) to run for in the fall & collect 1,000 valid signatures before the filing deadline (3/20) in just ONE WEEK.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) March 14, 2018
This Democratic PA lawyer who is knowledgeable about the process explains what happens now:
If I have to, I'll explain. Promise. But the first important thing to know is that this is not a count tonight; it's unofficial and does not include absentee or provisional ballots. The formal count begins Friday, & overseas/military absentees have until next Tues to come in. https://t.co/M43ENosfZk
— Adam Bonin (@adambonin) March 14, 2018
Ok, thread time.
1. Almost all the voting in these counties is done on touchscreen machines. Westmoreland County has a mix of touchscreen and optical scan. So a recount won't change things much — only the Westmoreland paper ballots & absentees/provisionals could.
— Adam Bonin (@adambonin) March 14, 2018
2. Again, to stress: this isn't the official count. This is an informal count. Absentees/provisionals have not been counted yet. Wait until Friday on the former; on the latter voters have a week to verify their eligibility still.
— Adam Bonin (@adambonin) March 14, 2018
3. Firiday is when the real fun starts all over the place, but again the only issues of interpretation are with the paper ballots, which is a small portion of the total. And the UOCAVA votes (overseas & military) can break both ways.
— Adam Bonin (@adambonin) March 14, 2018
4. *After the county boards of election do their iniital count, particular decisions they make can be appealed back to the county boards of elections. Those decisions, in turn, can be appealed to the court of common pleas.
— Adam Bonin (@adambonin) March 14, 2018
5. And then, yes, all the machines can be judicially recanvassed/recounted upon petiitions duly filed. But most of this is just arithmetic, not staring at hanging chads.
— Adam Bonin (@adambonin) March 14, 2018
6. If you've come this far and need the bio info, I've lawyered three PA races in the past four years which were decided by zero-1 votes. Yes, two of them were ties and my client won the drawing of lots. So I've been deep in the weeds on this stuff.
— Adam Bonin (@adambonin) March 14, 2018
9. If I had to guess, I bet the absentees push things further in Conor's direction. I trust the @AlleghenyDems to have done their job to ensure eligible absentee voters knew and exercised their rights.
— Adam Bonin (@adambonin) March 14, 2018
10. As a reminder: Pennsylvania doesn't have early voting. We don't have no-excuse absentee voting. Only voters who know they'll be out-of-town for all of Election Day, or are physically unable to make it to the polls, can vote absentee.
— Adam Bonin (@adambonin) March 14, 2018
Before the Close Analysis
The PA-18 Special Election, in the western part of the state near Pittsburgh, should be a Republican cakewalk, considering Trump won the district by 20 points. (Note: This is the “old” district, not the new one the PA Supreme Court ordered for the November election.)
But it’s turned into what the polls suggest will be a close race. The polls close at 8 p.m. Eastern.
Republican Rick Saccone has run a lackluster campaign, while Democrat Conor Lamb is running as a conservative Democrat imposter, trying to shape himself as someone who is right on key issues. It’s a farce and a sham, but in a year when Democrats seem to have more motivation, it may dampen Republican turnout to have a Democrat who supposedly agrees with them on key issues.
Trump campaigned in the district, and Republicans put in the resources and manpower the Saccone campaign lacked.
If Lamb wins, it will dominate headlines for days or weeks and will be viewed as a precursor to Democrats taking back the House. If Lamb loses by low single digits, the spin will be that Democrats outperformed. The only way Republicans get spin out of this — as far as the mainstream media is concerned — is if Saccone wins by double digits.
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Comments
Results Pending Time Dilation.
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hadn’t been paying much attention to this one, just realized whoever wins this race only gets the seat for a few months, and then all the district boundaries change to much more democrat friendly ones.
So it’s almost a purely symbolic race. Maybe losing would be better, scare Republicans into getting their shit together before November.
Actually good until end of year. A lot of things could happen. A win would be good. A close on would make it sweet.
What’s more both will run in different districts in a few months. They have to decide in the next week where. And of course if the court redrawn map is thrown out.
Would be great if the US DOJ would use this small election as a great test run of an election fraud abeyance operation, post factor. Fear of the (long arm of the) Law and such.
50.4% to 49% looks like Alabama again… Dem, still 14% out but PA counted, wonder how many illegals voted?
Are we never going to do anything about illegals voting?
Number of illegals? None What you need to figure out is how many legal votes in predominately democratic precincts you need to suppress.
So far Kobach of Kansas has convicted exactly 1 non-citizen. The other 9 were citizens who voted in more than 1 state and most were repugnicans.
Have you no shame?
“Have you no shame?…”
You have enough for all of us, comrade.
Non-substantive
Ineligible people registering and voting is almost impossible to catch, so it’s no surprise that so few are caught. If you trawl with a 5-inch net you won’t catch any sardines, but that doesn’t mean they’re not abundant.
So absence of proof is proof?
Meanwhile it is a convenient excuse for voter suppression and intimidation.
There is proof. Your side denies the proof exists. Or they trash the studies:
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261379414000973
Just the result of a 10 second search:
https://pjmedia.com/blog/massive-voter-fraud-discovered-in-north-carolinas-2012-election
And of course, there’s the bussing, the districts where there were more votes than voters, and the old Chicago saw of “vote early vote often”
Heck, I could not get CA to stop mailing me absentee ballots for years after I moved away. All someone would have had to do was walk up to a polling place in CA and claim to be me, and there’s nothing that would have been able to trace them back to.
Commissioner Al Schmidt testified in December, 2017 that over 100,000 people had illegally registered to vote in the state of Pennsylvania over the past 20 years.
Democrats have always believed that the easier it is to vote, the more likely it is for them to win elections. All of their innovations: early voting; vote by mail; automatic voter registration increases the risk for voter fraud. Everybody knows that. Your side doesn’t care because it benefits from voter fraud.
Pennsylvania has a “motor voter” law. When a person gets a drivers license he is asked if he’d like to register to vote.
In PA, the government bureaucrats have been asking non-citizens who were issued a legal driver’s license if they’d like to register to vote. To get the driver’s license, the non-citizen had to hand over their green cards, visa, passports and other work documents showing they were NOT citizens. Yet the clerk asked the non-citizen if they would like to register to vote. That’s been going on for 20 years.
He explained that most of the non-citizens did not set out to commit voter fraud. Most only wanted to get a driver’s license. They assumed the government employee was competent. If the government has reviewed all their paperwork to get a driver’s license that clearly shows they are NOT a citizen – green card, visa, passport, work papers, etc., then asks at the end, “oh, by the way, would you like to register to vote?”, then the non-citizen likely believed they were lawfully eligible to vote. If I were them I would assume that, too.
The only way this was discovered was a handful of non-citizens self reported. They realized they were registered to vote in error. They feared that if it were discovered they illegally registered to vote, it may put their right to be in the country at risk. So they contacted the government and asked to be removed from the voter rolls.
Start watching about the 56 minute mark. He does a great job clearly explaining it all. He gets to the 100,000+ number just before the 64 minute mark.
http://stategovernment.pasenategop.com/121217/
So, again, we have a handful that has been extrapolated to 100K. Did he fix this problem? Did he testify about how many voted – that is easy enough to determine. Funny you didn’t mention that.
The real question is whether more citizens are being prevented from voting or more non-citizens are voting. I would be in favor of an honest, non-partisan examination of that question. Let the chips fall where they may! Deal?
Wrong. Nothing has been extrapolated. Either you didn’t watch what I suggested you watch or you are dense.
100,000 non-citizens have been identified as illegally registering to vote in Pennsylvania.
Drudge has it 50-50
If Drudge has it 5050 then I’m going with the Republican.
Where were those two rats Ryan and McConnell during all this?
Absent, as usual.
It’s us versus the democrats AND the GOPe.
Destroy the GOPe and you’ll destroy the leftist cancer growing out of control in our country.
Lying Ryan and *itch McConnell. .
You watch, the Dem is gonna win. They almost always win squeakers. Because they cheat. They throw out just enough R ballots, or create just enough D ballots for the D to win. It is organized by public employees. They cover for each other and engineer the result they want when they can.
The left cheats, the GOPe does nothing.
Damn them both.
It’s like NASCAR, I don’t want to watch.
the courts are going to have to redraw the pa districts, he only won by about 677 votes, should have been more
Ben Shapiro has most of it right, democrats are more enthusiastic is a nice way of saying that republicans have gotten complacent and there is a hate Trump factor there cultivated by the media and probably most effective with women. The left’s complete ownership of the MSM might be too much to overcome given how many easily influenced people there are out there.
PA18 is an interesting place. Let’s look at some statistics.
PA18 has ~6% more registered Democrats than Republicans. Trump got only 58% of the vote in PA18 in 2016, many local political offices are held by Democrats.
Pundits try to sell PA18 as a Republican bastion which was solidly in the Trump camp. However, one has to remember that Trump, though he “represented the Republican party” is not a Republican and was never seen that way. He was Trump. And, the Republicans can not count of Trump supporters automatically supporting other Republican candidates.
That being said, the Republican, in spite of being a lack luster candidate, lost by only .02% [600 votes]. This is not a significant win for the Democrats. This was, for all intents and purposes, a tie in a district with a Democrat majority.
Perspective will not be seen in the media reports, however.
Correction: Saccone is down by only 0.2%. I placed the percentage point in the wrong place.
The R’s in PA had better be on alert because this is when Demorats do their worst and dirtiest work. Think of all the close races where they went into the wee hours and then lo and behold, MORE ballots were found! All Demorat of course! Since this is a meaningless race due to the seat being eliminated in Nov., it will still serve as a wake-up call for the R’s who have gotten used to not having to work very hard to win.
I’ll bet in your whole life you never got the prize because someone cheated, or there was affirmative action or you were unlucky.
Any update on who the winner is? Apart from chicken dinner 🙂