Since Congress passed tax reform, both Trump’s approval and the generic ballot are showing an uptick in support for the President and the Republican party.
The Morning Consult explains:
While Trump’s net approval rating remained 7 points underwater in January — with 44 percent of registered voters approving of his job performance and 51 percent disapproving — the number represents a 2-point bump compared with his rating in September and a 4-point bump from October and November.Much of that gain was driven by an increase of enthusiastic support from Republican voters: Forty-eight percent of those voters in January said they strongly approve of Trump, compared with 43 percent in September.Some experts suggest Trump’s improved standing with the public, and Republican voters in particular, was partly due to rosy economic indicators during this period — from stock market gains to strong employment figures — and Republican lawmakers’ overhaul of the country’s tax code, despite the public’s mixed response to certain parts of the legislation.
Morning Consult attributes the increase in Trump’s approval ratings to a decrease in fear he won’t stick to the policy agenda he promised, and one that’s mostly congruent with Republican ideals.
The generic ballot mirrors the same trends. For only the second time since Trump’s inauguration and the first time this year, Republicans outpaced, albeit barely, their Democrat opponents:
Politico expounds:
“Not only have Republicans increased support on the generic congressional ballot, they are now trusted more to handle the most important issue when voters head to the polls: the economy,” said Kyle Dropp, Morning Consult’s co-founder and chief research officer. “In mid-December, 39 percent of voters said they trusted Democrats more to handle the economy, compared to 38 percent who said Republicans. Today, 43 percent say Republicans and 32 percent say Democrats.”Congressional Republicans also have a 9-point advantage on handling jobs, a 6-point lead on dealing with immigration and a 19-point lead on handling national security. The Democratic advantage on health care has dwindled to just 4 percentage points, down from double digits last year.And while House Democrats have pledged to yoke GOP candidates to House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.), the poll suggests that House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) will be a more effective foil for Republicans than Ryan will be for Democrats.Voters are split on their perceptions of Ryan: 36 percent view him favorably, and 40 percent have an unfavorable opinion.
Democrats and the political media have set their lasers to “Rob Porter” scandal, former White House Aide accused of domestic abuse by his ex-wives. They’re still pretending Trump or his “associates” colluded with Russia, despite lack of proof. Likewise, attempts to tie #MeToo to Trump have failed. Nonetheless, Trump’s approval ratings continue to climb.
Heading into the midterms, Republicans aren’t out of the weeds completely. As the Morning Consult explained, should economic conditions worsen, the GOP may end up with the blame. Further, Republicans running in local and national races as a Trump clone are likely to find there is only one Trump. Loud and brash might work for him, but it comes across as tacky and phony for many others.
There’s also the unanswered question of Obamacare. A constant hot button issue since its passage, Republicans capitalized in every election cycle, particularly 2014, but making repealing Obamacare the focal point of their agenda. Trump succeeded in gutting the individual mandate, but after several failed attempts and a handful of crappy bills that failed to gain traction, the Obamacare discussion is no longer on the radar.
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