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Last polls before Alabama Senate special election are all over the place

Last polls before Alabama Senate special election are all over the place

So who’s right?

All eyes are on Alabama. After months in the national spotlight, Tuesday, voters will cast their ballots in the special election to fill a seat left by now Attorney General Sessions.

As we’ve discussed at length, polling after the allegations were made public showed supporters rallying behind Moore as the national press corps and the political class called for Moore to step down.

Last minute polling is all over the place. Several polls released Monday completely contradict one another. Roy Moore, the Republican challenger, has been embroiled in scandal after numerous allegations of sexual misconduct with several teenage girls some thirty years ago. As the allegations state, Moore was in his thirties at the time.

A Fox News poll conducted Thursday had Democrat Doug Jones ahead of Moore by a whopping 10 points.

That’s according to a Fox News Poll of Alabama voters conducted Thursday through Sunday using traditional polling techniques, including a list-based probability sample with both landlines and cellphones.

Jones receives 50 percent to Moore’s 40 percent, with 1-in-10 undecided (8 percent) or supporting another candidate (2 percent) — which could make a difference Tuesday. That’s even truer with such an unconventional election with unconventional candidates.

Fox’s poll is in stark contrast to one released by Emerson College which shows Moore with a nine-point lead, up six points since last week.

In the final Emerson College poll before the election, GOP candidate Roy Moore now leads the Democratic candidate Doug Jones 53% to 44%, a six point bump from last week’s Emerson poll. The poll suggests Moore has weathered the storm of alleged sexual misconduct; The survey has a sample size of 600 very likely voters, and has a margin of error of +/-3.9 percentage points.

Since the Emerson Poll of Nov. 12, a few days after allegations of sexual misconduct, Moore’s lead dropped from 10 points, to 6 points Nov. 26, and to 3 points last week on Dec. 3. A major event that might have contributed to Moore’s improved poll numbers is his endorsement by President Trump this past weekend. The President is more popular than either candidate with a 55%/40% favorable/unfavorable rating; Moore is at 45%/45% and Jones at 43%/45%.

Yet another conducted by Monmouth shows the race as a dead heat, favoring Jones if turnout is high and Moore if turnout is low:

According to polling aggregation on Real Clear Politics, the Fox News poll appears to be an outlier, with Moore consistently polling results over Jones, even after the allegations of sexual misconduct broke. His lead has diminished these last weeks but is still a lead nonetheless.

Both former President Obama and President Trump have gotten involved in the race.

Axios reported that Alabama voters (specifically black voters) are receiving pre-recorded robocalls from the former president, urging them to reject Roy Moore.

Trump too has thrown his weight into the race, recording robocalls supporting Moore and tweeting in support of the Republican candidate.

The electoral showdown will be portrayed as many things it’s not, simply because it’s always politically expedient to do so. It’s not a referendum on the GOP or Trump, it’s simply a case of Alabama voters casting their ballots in the manner they see fit.


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Journolistic collusion. Trump… I mean, Moore for the win.

Because witch hunts and public lynching are so Democrat. #FeministReform

Even the fox poll was weighted as nearly 50/50 dems/reps in a state that out-voted Hillary by 28%.

Kemberly, the answer to your query: “who is right?” is: Never trust the media to be honest, fair, or transparent. Believe none of the ideologically driven tripe from self-proclaimed and demonstrably biased “journalists.”

The great folks in Alabama will speak for themselves on Tuesday, for good or ill.

I’m expecting democrat vote fraud.

Does Sessions know that he is no longer the Senator? Has anyone gone over to wake him up and tell him he has a new job?

At the time, Moore was allegedly in his thirties.

I don’t think he was allegedly in his thirties, unless there’s some confusion about his birth certificate.

If it were my state, I’d know the voting base better. If I had to put money on the race, I’d pick Moore to win. If I had to be right about the voter split to keep my money, I’d say Moore wins by 4% (+ or – two). The wildcat is what the women have decided about Moore. I’m not a woman, though I do love a few a great deal. One in the way you dogs are imagining, the others platonically.

DINORightMarie | December 11, 2017 at 8:44 pm

Given what happened in MS when the left got the black vote out, it could go Democrat.

However, I believe there are enough Alabamians who are both Trump supporters and anti-MSM patriots who will turn out to support Moore.

Time will tell. But about the polls…..if you don’t use a ratio that reflects the population, then results are skewed. All pollsters know this. So, don’t buy into their planned outcome, their propaganda.

Vote – and I pray, Alabamians, do NOT send a Democrat to DC to vote with the pack of Schumer’s and Booker’ crooks and liars!!

Fox just trying to give hope to the losers and make sure they turn out.

Moore +10 tomorrow, give or take a couple points.

It’s really bad or faux would not jump in and try to help.

Moore, and it won’t be a squeaker.

The polls are crap. Tomorrow’s exit polls will be crap.

The “black vote” won’t be a major disturbing factor because neither of the candidates is black.

Best part of this election—all the sanctimonious Republicans whining about how the Party should be about “character.” Indeed, it should—a man of character will vote to defeat the Democrats, and won’t be distracted by irrelevant fluff. Opposing the Democrats is the Republican Party’s sole raison d’être, and the only thing which makes any Senator worthy of a vote.

A man of character will also never be fooled into thinking that the Senate is anything more refined than a pig-wrestling arena. There’s nothing sublime or empyrean about it or its members. It’s an exclusive and thoroughly nasty club, one filled with the likes of Ted Kennedy, Robert Byrd, Joe McCarthy, and Andrew May (the guy who leaked to the Press the info that the Japs would have to correct their depth-charge settings if they wanted to sink American submarines).

Thane_Eichenauer | December 12, 2017 at 1:33 am

As mentioned above the only poll that counts is the official vote.

It needs repeating. The ONLY poll that vounts is the official vote.

Why LI talks polls and not prediction markets is beyond me.

The Fox News poll only has a sampling of Republican +2. In a state that Trump won by I believe over 25 points.

What that poll tells you is that if equal ratios of Democrats and Republicans come out as on election day Moore wins by over 20 points.

Well, I’m a woman, and my feeling is that while Moore is skeevy, he’s not “it’s okay to murder babies up until the moment of birth” skeevy. I’d vote for him over Jones. If I were a betting woman, I’d lay odds on that he’ll win.