UPDATE:

AP and networks have called the race for Jones at about 10:25 p.m. Eastern.

Moore led most of the night, but Birmingham (Jefferson County) was late reporting, and when it did, it swung the election. Jones won Jefferson County with about 70% of the vote.

There will be hot takes galore. Here’s my “quick” take:

Moore never could recover from the allegations of sexual abuse of a 14 year old and 16 year old. While he did manage to cloud the issue, with an assist from Gloria Allred, it wasn’t enough in the end. The polling showed Moore with a pretty solid 3-4% average lead, but the polls were off in what certainly was a hard to poll special election.

While this was a candidate specific loss, it certainly will be spun as part of a wave that started in Virginia and will be a precursor of the midterms. It also means that the Trump agenda is on the ropes, with just a single vote margin next year. Tax reform needs to pass this year (since Jones will not be seated until next term), or it may not get done. You probably can forget anything else big getting done before the midterms, not with McCain and Collins and a couple of others who barely vote with Trump.

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