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Pre-Final Presidential Debate – state of the race

Pre-Final Presidential Debate – state of the race

Polling averages are brutal for Trump, but is there a glimmer of hope far off in the distance?

As we approach the final presidential debate later tonight, the polling looks grim for Donald Trump.

In a sense, Trump never really recovered from his post Democratic convention fall, when his public feud with the Khan family wasted what had been a Trump rally after the Republican convention.

There was a rebound for a couple of weeks, as Trump maintained uncharacteristic composure and relative silence as Hillary’s email and other scandals took a toll.

But all of that went down the tubes as Trump took the bait on the “fat shaming” allegation after the first debate. Does ANYONE even remember the woman’s name at this point? She was just a Clinton prop used to set up what was to come, the NBC tape of comments about groping women and the rollout of a series of women accusing Trump of groping them in some form or another.

Now, Hillary has pulled into a consistent lead in the mid-to-high single digits in remarkably consistent polling (with an exception, discussed below).

Here are the Real Clear Politics averages and most recent polls.

real-clear-politics-presidential-averages-10-18-2016

real-clear-politics-presidential-averages-10-18-2016-latest-polls-4-way

With no toss-ups, based on current polling Hillary easily wins the electoral college:

real-clear-politics-electoral-map-10-19-2016-no-toss-ups

The glimmer of hope for Trump in the far distance is the IBD/TIPP poll, the only recent poll to show Trump leading. You could write that off as an anomaly, but, that poll was the most accurate in 2012.

So the hope for Trump is that the average polling is way, way, way off. That meme was pushed in 2012 to no effect.

Trump also needs to hope that something changes between now and November 8 that changes the nature of the race.

More Wikileaks disclosures proving that the Clinton machine has corrupted the media, DOJ, FBI and just about every other thing it touches will not be enough.

It will have to be something more than that. Because you can expect more October surprises to be dropped on Trump — probably one every few days.

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Comments

The only thing wrong with all of this is assuming that the polling is ACCURATE. Here is an article concerning the polls showing HRC having a 13-17 point lead against Bernie Sanders in Michigan during the primaries. Bernie won the state by 1.5%. [https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/10/18/media-polls/]

Ignore the polls. They are all being artificially slanted to show that HRC is leading DJT. It is being done to suppress the Trump voter turnout. There is absolutely no way that any of these polls can be trusted to be accurate or, in some cases. Look to the stats on voter affiliation and the turn out for candidate rallies.

I disagree that the polling looks bad for Trump.

Polling is not a science. Among other things, polling is based on assumptions (i.e., “guesses”) about the nature of the electorate that will be voting in this election. When the assumptions are garbage, the poll results are also garbage.

Many of the polls showing Trump significantly behind are either push polls promulgated by Clinton operatives, or are based on ludicrous assumptions about the nature of the electorate that will be voting in this election (i.e., the grossly oversample democrats and undersample independents and republicans). They are not based on good faith “guesses” about the nature of the electorate that will be voting. They are intended to demoralize Trump’s supporters, and depress his turnout. Those polls should be completely ignored.

The only thing we really know about this election is that Trump is a very unusual candidate, running a very unusual campaign, who has an unusual, but extremely motivated, base. And that Hillary is also a somewhat unusual candidate, with a less motivated base. All of which is likely to cause the making of assumptions about the nature of the electorate that will be voting much harder than usual.

My best guess is that the race is a quite close one. The candidates are certainly acting like it is. But that’s only a guess. Just like the guesses each of the (serious) polling organizations are making.

No one will be able to do more than offer guesses until those final poll results come in on election night.

    tom swift in reply to Wisewerds. | October 19, 2016 at 11:13 pm

    The only thing we really know about this election …

    We know something else.

    Thanks to that new-fangled Internet thing and the Democrats’ poor security procedures, we now have evidence that what we’ve believed for years about their lying, scheming, conspiring, propagandizing, bribing, press collusion, systematic racism, calculated violence, and outright voter fraud … are true. The only suspected malfeasance which hasn’t been revealed in the Wikileaks dumps is any collusion with prominent Republicans to support the rise of the New World Order. Everything else is in there in plain black-and-white.

    Of particular concern right now is the long history of voter fraud. They’re still at it, and nobody’s doing anything about it. Fraud will be a major factor in this election. My belief all along has been that the only way that such a wretched candidate as Hillary can win is through massive voter fraud … and the Dems know it.

    I don’t think they’ll be able to pull off a fraud of the magnitude of the Tilden/Hays election in 1876 … but they’ll certainly try.

Reagan / Carter or Truman / Dewey, that is the question.

I also think this is closer that the polls indicate. I think tonight’s debate could have an impact. Mostly because Chris Wallace could be the one to break the media’s wall of silence on the Wiki scandals, etc with some pointed questions to Clinton. If hew doesn’t ask them, no one will.

Hillary has pulled into a consistent lead in the mid-to-high single digits in remarkably consistent polling

And that mathematical smoking gun isn’t setting off your BS detectors?

It should be.

“as Trump took the bait”

Trump always takes the bait. He has no discipline to stick to what got him where he is, to stick to what is important in being able to defeat Slick Clinton’s wife. He always takes the bait, and there is always bait to take.

Also, the polls are national. The election is state by state. National polls in a state-by-state election are infotainment, which is to say, irrelevant.

    Her name is Machado, I don’t remember Trump “taking the bait” unless responding to the accusation is “taking the bait”. The only evidence was him actually being quite nice to her and defending her to the press.

    BTW I have her one of her Playboy pics as my wall paper. ( Just kidding. )

OnlyRightDissentAllowed | October 19, 2016 at 8:02 pm

You guys really ought to read fivethirtyeight.com. They discuss every issue raised here and many, many more. They even discuss the possibility that some Trump supporters lie to pollsters. They are pros at this. Literally.

538 only got one state wrong in the last 2 Presidential Elections. They got some primaries wrong, but not the generals elections.

I would think you would be more realistic after the ‘unskewed polls’ fiasco. But foolish hope never dies.

You could take comfort in the betting markets. Trump was 5-1 but now he is 4-1. So they have move his way a bit.

John Stossel’s site has Hillary @ 82.3%. He is no liberal and he bases his predictions on the betting sites.

    Yeah yeah. So why has Silver totally screwed up the midterm elections two times?

      OnlyRightDissentAllowed in reply to RodFC. | October 19, 2016 at 8:43 pm

      1st of all, he got the Presidential forecasts dead on. 2nd, I don’t care. Unlike a lot of other mythology on this site, we will have an answer Nov 8. At that time, you can accept it or not. I have no control over that.

      But please, does anyone really believe Trump has the temperament to be President. I mean, really? Just between us guys – I won’t tell anyone.

      Anyway, I am done for the night. You guys can fantasize about how the polls and betting markets are all wrong and – Every once in awhile there is an upset. That is why we hold the elections or the sporting events. But Trump in a long shot. He always was. According to WikiLeaks Clinton wanted Trump.

      Goodnight.

        Nate Silver has been right when Democrats won. He has been wrong when Republicans won. Why? He leans heavily Democrat. Surprise.

        So not hanging around? Guess Hiillary’s check didn’t clear.

        “just between us guys” and “you guys”? You didn’t give me a trigger warning,didn’t you realize that “guys” is not acceptable, I am so upset, you sexist 😉

        First of all, if Trump wins, will you accept it?

        Second, if Hillary wins, there will be no media watchdog over her – only more glowing reports of how great she is, as well as hiding all the illegal things she and her crew are doing. If Trump wins, everyone in the media as well as Congress will be fact checking every word he says, waiting to trip him up.While I may not like Trump, I will like the media eye on him, if he is elected.

        Yes. I believe that Mr. Trump does have the temperament to be President of the United States.

        If we can tolerate:
        – President Stompy-feet (President Obama, known for his tantrums);
        – President can’t keep it in his pants (President William Clinton, known for not being able to keep it in his pants);
        – President Malaise (President Carter, known for the worst modern economic period until Obama); and
        – President King of Camelot (President Kennedy, known for his trysts in the White House with many, many celebrity women)

        We can tolerate President Business Narcissist.

    Yes, yes, we read 538. It correctly predicted Obama elections based on the turnout. The turnout model didn’t work for the midterms. This year? I’m not a statistician, but a blind can see that Trump’s support is deep but narrow. Supposedly, Hillary closed the enthusiasm gap after the Billy Bush tape came out.
    There are wide discrepancies in the polling, way wider than I remember 2008 and 2012. There is no doubt in my mind that Hillary will win, though.

Care to show the RCP average of the Demographics.
RCP was first created because of ( whispered ) fears of manipulation of polls. At that time Zogby was relatively accurate.

But at this point GIGO. You obviously have a serious Gell-Mann amnesia regarding Wikileaks and the “revelations” that the polls and press are in bed with Illary.

Since the beginning I’ve said the polls are an unknown. They might be spot on, they might be widely off.

There is an even more complicated thing. They have been talking about the effect on polls of people going without landlines. Guess what I don’t hear? The effect of ANI on polls. I don’t answer any call from any person that I don’t know. For all I know I’ve been contacted by pollsters many times. They just haven’t left any messages.

Finally I think about previous examples in my experience where polls were wrong. The biggest common factor that I could find in those polls, the side underestimated had strong reason to lie to pollsters.
Usually fear or embarrassment of admitting their choice.

Burned out campaign headquarters. Rocks thrown through headquarters. Trump supporters attacked at Trump rallies. UIC… you think a Trump supporter is going to admit to a stranger he is a Trump supporter?

Misogynist, racist, the next Hitler. You think any Trump supporter is going to admit that to a stranger?

    RodFC in reply to RodFC. | October 19, 2016 at 8:38 pm

    This just came in.
    I don’t know what exactly the #3 veritas video is about. WHen IO checked it wasn’t out yet and I thought that he wasn’t going to release one today. It is described as the DNC sending protestors to get violent with women at Trump rallies.

    Any belief that a woman is going to be h0onest with a stranger about who she is voting for? So much for one of Illary”s main demographic.

      OnlyRightDissentAllowed in reply to RodFC. | October 19, 2016 at 8:47 pm

      Ever occur to you that veritas sent the violent demonstrators or did some other manipulation. He is the Boy who Cried Wolf. Even Breitbart disowned him and that is where he got started.

        Well another Democrat liar you said you were out of here.

        From the first two videos it’s not what O’Keefe said but what the DNC operators said including the guy who visited the White House 343 times.

I think Prof. Jacobson pinpointed his slide exactly, although I might say it was right after he sent out the 5am “check out her sex tape” tweet that it all really fell apart. I don’t see the debate changing anything – people’s minds are already made up about Trump one way or another, and most won’t feel the need to watch. It’s too bad other Republican candidates weren’t capable of doing the same opposition research that the Democrats were able to do.

DieJustAsHappy | October 19, 2016 at 8:46 pm

The majority of people I know are so disgusted with this election they’ve given up on any discussions. They know they’re voting for Trump, so don’t believe they need to listen to the hash n’ trash being doled about by the media.

That Hillary continues to have the support that she does at this stage of the game suggests to me just how far gone this nation is. I don’t know that I’ve heard or even heard of anybody of a clear vision, a doable one, for the future of America.

Henry Hawkins | October 19, 2016 at 9:10 pm

I’ve heard promises for a year that when Trump gets Hillary on the debate stage, he’s gonna tear her apart. Does that start tonight?

Polls aren’t all they cracked up to be-or are they???

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yPQDCMUCrf4

buckeyeminuteman | October 20, 2016 at 2:00 pm

Maybe I’m missing something. National polls are cute, but you have to win the majority of a state to get the Electoral College votes. Clinton may have a higher percentage nationally, but she’s going to win California, New York, and Illinois anyway. What matters are those swing states. It’s neck and neck in places like Ohio, Florida, etc.

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