I completely underestimated Hillary’s ability to screw up a massive lead
She still leads, but that lead has shrunk dramatically as Trump no longer is the center of attention and the spotlight is on Hillary.
On August 24, I noted that Hillary’s strategy was to run out the clock, in light of her massive lead in the polls since the conventions, Hibernating Hillary Running Out the Clock:
The current polling gives little rational reason to think Donald Trump will win in November.
No matter how you slice it — national 4-way, national head-to-head, battleground states, electoral college, unfavorability — Trump is deeply underwater, as this polling average chart at Real Clear Politics today shows:
That was then. Before Hillary’s hibernation combined with more email problems, and Trump’s staying out of trouble, caused something approaching a collapse.
Here’s what that same chart looks like now. Hillary is still leading, but in every category her lead has shrunk dramatically.
This is what a collapsing looks like nationally head to head (the first collapse was Trump’s, the second Clinton’s):
And in two key states, Florida and Ohio, where the collapsed lead was due to Trump rising more than Hillary falling:
The MSNBC forum was a fiasco for Hillary. Trump sharing — back to back — a stage with Hillary helped Trump tremendously.
Matt Lauer is being savaged by the liberal media for being mean to Hillary, with the sexism card being played, Trump’s sexist strategy gets assist from Matt Lauer:
In the aftermath Lauer has been widely called out for what many saw as an unfair, sexist approach to moderating.
For one thing, he devoted about a third of his time with Clinton to questions about her emails, while rushing her through other, weightier topics. He interrupted her, while allowing Trump to talk over him in his usual way, and he left unchallenged Trump’s contradictory statement about not supporting the war in Iraq (he did), among other things. The outrage across social media was immediate. “How in the hell does Lauer not fact check Trump lying about Iraq? This is embarrassingly bad,” asked former Obama aide Tommy Vietor, echoing many.
It was a fresh teachable moment for women everywhere about what happens when a woman dares to seek power.
Trump himself made this lesson plain when in response to a Lauer question, he issued a staunch defense of a tweet he’d made three years ago about how sexual assault in the military is in large part the inevitable result of allowing women to serve in the armed forces.
As offensive as this sexism is, it’s not new.
Why the Trump rise?
He has avoided screw ups. He has avoided making himself the issue in the race.
The race is becoming about Hillary. That’s not where Democrats want to be.
In my prior post, I suggested that at the beginning of the 4th Quarter (Labor Day), Hillary was ahead by three touchdowns. We’re just a few minutes in to the Quarter, and already the lead is down to 10 points.
Hillary has many structural Electoral College advantages shared by all Democratic presidential candidates. And the media refs are on her side. It may be enough. But what looked like a nearly sure thing just two weeks ago looks less certain.
At the end of my prior post, I cautioned that there still were risks for Hillary.
Meanwhile, to give solace to those facing a harsh reality, there’s a risk to Hillary running out the clock. She may wake up in late October and find that her overwhelming lead has narrowed, and that it’s a game again. That will depend on Trump executing a comeback strategy, not just winging it, and avoiding more unforced errors and fumbles.
Because there’s a catch to trying to run out the clock.
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video blocked by NFL…
and i’d remind everyone that it’s socially unacceptable to support Trump… but i’m not seeing much Shrillery love here in the deepest Blue part of blue Lost Angels.
I saw a lot of Trump love at the wedding of a Cuban-American friend here in Florida last weekend. Yuuuuuge extended family, and they all love the man. Unabashedly. So it’s definitely out there.
I met a legal immigrant at the West Hollywood DMV who was happy to tell me he was a Trump supporter. He was sick of the people in his neighborhood who weren’t working and were here illegally having a higher standard of living than he did. That was when I realized that Trump probably could get a significant share of the black vote if he stayed on message since they have the most to lose from illegal immigration.
never underestimate the ability of the Democrats to dig up a lot of votes for Hillary. it wasn’t that Trump had a bad day as it is that he stated out of the new altogether, the press has a habit of making a good day for Trump look bad.
Speaking of which, I am in a huge ethical quandary.
My mother is going to vote for Hillary.
So, should I continue visiting her grave knowing she voted for Hillary or not?
Such a shame! She was such a die hard Republican before she passed away too.
What three !@#$ ( that’s in Klingon for more forcefulness ) downvoted this?
I know. My late mother would have really appreciated my comment and had a very good laugh.
She went to school with the Goldwaters and taught her three children conservationism. She hated Chicago values and Democrat dirty tricks like the dead voting. And my mother would have been the first one to say that the only way she would ever vote Democrat is if she were dead and they voted for her.
I remember her last vote was for Bush 41’s second term done by a mail in ballot. As sick as she was, she wanted her vote counted.
It’s only a surprise to those who have had their eyes closed.
Mailman
BINGO !!! None so blind as those that refuse to see.
If one looks closely at the trends, Trump is, apparently, not taking any significant voters away from Hillary. So, they have to be coming from the undecided and independent voters. The most interesting poll number is the 16% of Democrats who say they are going to vote for Trump in PPP’s current Florida poll.
However, you have to be real careful how you interpret these polls. The recent PPP Florida poll had Trump up by 1 point [44-43], in a 5-way race. However, the percentage of the sample, by party, showed a significant oversampling of Dems. Dem voters currently make up 37% of the registered voters in Florida. But, 44% of the sample identified as Democrat. 36% identified as Republican, which is much closer to the 35% actually registered as Republicans. So, it is very likely that the Trump percentage is actually quite a bit higher than it is being reported in the polls. Forget about the polls and watch the people who are voting with their feet at rallies. These are the people who are going to be going to the polls, in November. The only thing we have to keep a close eye on is vote fraud. It is beginning to look like that is the only way that Hillary will win the election.
LOL. The professor can’t lift the anti-Trump bias blindfold all the way off. Hillary didn’t blow her lead. Trump exercised bold and highly competent management by reorganizing his campaign. It was Trump that changed his team. It was Trump that changed his style. It was Trump that went to Mexico. It is Trump drawing huge crowds. It is Trump sticking to a strong line on immigration and the border wall and not caving to the sissified maggots in the GOP.
Now Hillary is in a real conundrum. She can’t continue to hide so she risks BOTH exposing her health problems even more and she risks that as past experience has shown, the more people see of Hillary the MORE they don’t like her.
Hillary needs to admit she is a criminal who committed espionage and the professor needs to admit that Trump is a political genius and hard worker that is a WINNER.
WINNING !! Trump 2016
Excellent comment! I hope The Professor is paying attention.
Americans, sick of democrat crimes, are backing Trump, the Pro-America Patriot.
We’ve had enough of obaMao-like America-hatred, as he revealed in Laos today… For him: Tar. Feathers. Rail.
Political genius. Snort. You’re joking, right?
Yes. Trump is looking a lot more presidential lately. He went to Mexico…he went to Louisiana…he went to a black church in the Detroit ghetto…and his recent speeches have been great.
Spending all that time in Ithaca, one of the 10-most Liberal (leftist) cities in the U.S. seems to have affected the Professor’s formerly great judgment.
Now that he’s moved back to RI, there’s hope he’ll regain his equilibrium.
Other bloggers, particularly Don Surber, see this election as being a referendum on Trump, and the more people actually see him, the more they like him. I see it as a referendum on Monica Lewinsky’s ex-boyfriend’s wife, corrupt brain damaged alcoholic enabler of her sexual predator husband. And the more people see of her, the less they like her.
The idea that’s she’s a known quantity who’s been in the public eye for years is false. Completely and utterly false. She’s been carefully hidden from public view, and if the internet and blogs like this didn’t exist, she would still be way out in front.
I’ll give credit to the internet and social media for Trump’s nomination and soon to be her downfall. I have 98 friends on facebook, obviously most are going to be somewhat like me. But, every day new memes appear. And they’re all anti-HRC. Except for the occasional pro-Trump. Several of my friends were open Bernie supporters, and during primary season posted pro-Bernie memes. Nothing since the convention.
While the race may be tightening, please keep in mind that the LA Times – USC poll is not a real poll. Its real, as in, it exists, but it doesn’t resample the voters every round like a normal cross-sectional poll does. Instead, it just polls the starting sample again and again every couple of weeks over a period of months or years. The result is that any initial sampling error persists every time so its useful only for trends. As the LA Times – USC poll enters the RCP poll average Trump gets a boost, and then as other polls come in he gets a decline.
It’s raining Trumper downvotes but I could care less.
It’s always better to just look at the list of recent polls yourself then to have RCP average them for you. RCP’s trend line above has a spike in July, which most people would say is caused by Trump’s post-convention bounce. But even though he did get a bounce, at least half is actually caused by a single LA – USC poll in late July that had Trump + 7 at a time when no other poll had him anywhere near that. Then you can go back and look at some other poll results for the same poll and see if they also tend to come in high or low.
The LA – USC poll is actually designed to monitor trends in the same set of voters over time. This poll has never had Trump at +7 again, only tied at best, so draw your own conclusions from that.
Another poll that came in for Trump is the CNN-ORC poll. The problem is that poll is one of the most inconsistent polls I’d ever seen. One week it’ll have Clinton at +9, and then two weeks later Trump at +3. I don’t know enough about it to know why it’s wrong – every poll has a 3-4 point margin of error, so maybe its just unlucky, or maybe there’s more to it. But when it gets averaged in, Trump swings wildly. So you really have to look at the list closely when you see an upswing.
The more Clinton and her dogs attack, the more she is hurt.
Another wave in the sea of dishonesty where she plots her fate.
Prof. Jacobson totally discredited his own poll:
https://legalinsurrection.com/2016/08/reader-poll-trump-hillary-other/#more
Yes, there could have been(probably were) some shenanigans, but it also should have been a bit of a hint. Maybe that blindfold again?
http://lmgtfy.com/?q=Sample+bias+definition
If anyone can lose to Trump, it’s Hillary. I’m sure she’ll pull ahead, though.
Didn’t Ted lose to Trump before she will?
Yeah, but Trump had the Trumpster vote cornered for the primaries.
Such a rich fantasy world you inhabit at the edge of reality.
I am watching DATELINE NBC on the murder of JonBenet Ramsey. Everytime Patsy Ramsey opens her mouth – I hear Hillary Clinton denials.
It is kind of freaking me out.
Give Trump some credit here.
The man is a workhorse. He’s holding large events at least 2-3 times a day, every day.
In the past month, He visited the Flood victims, put together an impressive performance with the Mexican president on 2 days notice, met with African American leaders, and held multiple press conferences. He’s learned how to stay on the TelePrompTer, with no major gaffes in a month.
Meanwhile, Hillary can’t answer questions about her emails or her foundation, and she seems to be dying in front of our eyes. Her assistant Huma’s husband also had an embarrassing relapse.
I remember those days after the convention when Hillary had the big lead. Some polls changed their methodology, and the media discredited itself with an all out “he’s unpopular because he’s unpopular,” unsubstantial blitz.
Bill, well…
I think Trump nailed it when he said this was the last possible chance for a Republican recovery.
If we don’t pull this one out, I think it is over.
Burn it down, baby!
Well time to learn some things.
Don’t trust the polls.
Even when totally honest they are hard to get right this election. Some have been spot on others have been wildly off. That is mainly because some people do not want to admit they will vote for Trump. Especially to strangers, especially when he is getting blasted in the press.
But we know that in all these Presidential Election Polls, the MSM tends to underestimate the Republican vote. What is more we know from the leaked email that the MSM was manipulating Dem polls in the primaries. Would they do any less now?
So the upshot we really don’t have a clear idea where the race stands poll wise. It may be spot on, it may be wildly off either way.
When the first post occurred, I was knocked off the net for technical reasons. Which was sad because I wanted to point out the obvious.
One of Trumps biggest advantages was the enthusiasm gap. Hillary’s appearances are as anemic as she is. Trumps appearances are overflowing with many left out. It may not translate to votes, but Trump definitely has the enthusiasm advantage.
So the Hillary/DNC/MSM plan has been to make it appear that Trump is losing badly and drain that enthusiasm. Well that’s over with.
They even thought that pushed hard enough Trump would drop out. Did anyone who really knows Trump believe that?
What is more we were seeing things like Obama stopping his vacation early to campaign for Hillary. Would he have done that if Hillary was really so far ahead?
We were Trump’s campaign was in disarray because he fired Manafort. But didn’t they say the same thing when he hired Manafort and reduced Lewandowski’s influence? That Trump was falling apart and Cruz would soon take over. How did that work out?
Now we see a major part of their strategy has failed. Hillary is taking another five day weekend. I don’t think she can keep up.
I don’t think it is a good idea to be overly confident, but I do think that some optimistic is warranted.
Don’t trust the polls?
I get a few calls per day from people claiming to be pollsters.
When I laugh and tell them that:
1. I do not believe the poll results I have seen.
2. Would not answer their questions honestly, like many others, but at least I admit my lack of honest answers.
For some reason, the people on the other end of the line get upset. They interrupted my life, yet they are the ones getting upset. Sucks to be them.
The race I believe is going to change week to week and we may not truly know until the morning. Anyone see John McCain’s face today when asked about Trump and Putin. Anyone see the situation room foreign policy meeting Hillarry had with Bi-Partisan group of former High Level Generals , National Security Advisors etc. from prior Administrations, both Republican and Democratic.
It depends on:
1. Can Trump keep his Tantrums.
2. Can Hillary get the turnout close to Obama
That is the facts, chew on it . All comes down to Electorial College. Personally I don’t like either one.
The polls may not be accurate, but they shape perception.
And the perception is that Hillary has blown a massive lead.
The decline in her poll numbers coincides with FBI releases of notes, and various stuff from the emails. Regardless of what is going on, the perception is that the drop in poll numbers is justified by the charges of corruption and criminality. The polls give weight to the charges.
Well, I’m sure looking forward to the polls after her snotty comment of Trump supporters being a basketful of deplorables. Even Clinton Narrative Network is reporting that comment from the fundraiser last night.
“…snotty comment of Trump supporters being a basketful of deplorables.”
Nothing different than the neverTrump crowd. Hard to tell the difference.
I don’t doubt for one second that it is hard for YOU to see the difference.
Let me help you out. #NeverTrumpers dislike, distrust, and some of us even despise Donald Trump. We do not, however, carry these same sentiments forward to his supporters who number among our family, friends, and neighbors.
Does that help? Or are you really so far gone in that puff of orange Cheeto dust that you can’t distinguish between supporting or not supporting a political candidate for elected office and loathing or loving his (or her) supporters / detractors?
Vote your conscience.
Always, not just 2016.
You have to be conscious to “Vote your conscience”.
You nevertrumpers are just entertainment now.
I usually fix a bowl of popcorn before reading LI politics threads…
Months ago, before the conventions I was listening to Rush. He said one of hilldog’s biggest weaknesses was appearing in public and speaking.
He said every time she was out in public her numbers drop. It seems to be true, she’s been out of hiding and the hateful hitlery persona is coming to the surface and she just turns people off.
The media must wetting their Depends something awful with the way the numbers have fallen.
That’s the reason she went out and made that unbelievably stupid statement. Apparently video has surfaced of her saying the same thing earlier in the day.
Make no mistake, she said exactly what she meant to say. Democrats internal polls must be causing them to panic.
They know goddamn well that Hillary is going to be absolutely annihilated by Trump in the debates. They’ve been trying everything in their power to make people think the race is over.
Fortunately for us, Hillary is not content to just run out the clock. She’s trying to run up the score, and she’s prone to turnovers.