Counterargument: Why Donald Trump would vanquish Hillary Clinton
Not buying into the “doom and gloom” scenarios
I love my husband, but he is one of the “doom-and-gloomers” who insists Hillary Clinton will win in November, and in a landslide if the GOP candidate is Donald Trump.
This post is my response to him, and all the other naysayers and pessimists out there I see in social media. There are a myriad of reasons any Republican candidate can win in the end.
In light of recent developments in California, however, I would like to focus why Donald Trump specifically can achieve a glorious victory over Hillary Clinton this fall. I promise to prepare another, similar post if the summer conventions generate an alternative electoral battle combination.
My case will begin with some remarks my hairstylist made this week, during my regular hair-coloring session.
I know a lot of people who are planning to vote for Trump. Some remember him from his TV show, and really like what he did there. And one guy said to me, “I am willing to give him four years. He can’t be worse than the regular politicians who have been President the last few times.
Trump hosted 14 seasons of “The Apprentice”, which has been an extremely popular television show. So, millions of “low information voters” have already seen Trump without a mainstream media filter and have made-up their minds about him….for good or bad. A gang of Mexican-flag-waving thugs or stuffy political intellectuals will really not sway them.
And I suspect that while many American will be ambivalent about supporting Trump until Election Day, in the privacy of the voting booth, will come to the same conclusion as my hairstylist’s customer: Why not give the non-politician 4 years?
Secondly, as Democratic Party strategist Dave “Mudcat” Saunders notes: Trump will beat Clinton like a baby seal:
“I know a ton of Democrats — male, female, black and white — here [in southern Virginia] who are going to vote for Trump. It’s all because of economic reasons. It’s because of his populist message,” Mudcat told The Daily Caller Wednesday.
“Working class whites in the South have already departed the Democratic Party for cultural reasons. Well the working class whites in the North are now deserting the Democrats because of economic reasons,” Mudcat told TheDC. He added, “this is the new age of economic populism, man. This is about survival for a lot of people.”
My third reason for feeling optimistic about the results of a Trump/Clinton cage match? Saunders’ words about Democratic candidate Bernie Sanders and his supporters comport with my observations about fellow Democrats. That is, Sanders people will make jump to Trump. Another political analyst concurs with us both.
“Trump’s an outsider but he’s been very, very successful,” Dominic Dyer, fellow at networking organization The British American Project and Council, told CNBC Friday.
“Yes this campaign’s been based on fear and prejudice to a degree, but (Trump) has gone in right on those trade issues, the issues that really worry a lot of working class Americans about the fact that they’re working harder for less today. That resonates with the Bernie Sanders campaign as well.”
…”And I have no doubt, that some of the grand swell of support that’s gone to Bernie Sanders could move over to Trump and I don’t think we should underestimate the impact of that,” Dyer said, adding that he believed this trend was already emerging.
Furthermore, you can’t discount the pure gold that is Hillary’s dislikablity factor. Progressive icon Susan Sarandon has said she prefers Trump.
Many Sanders supporters will stay home in November. A friend of mine who is an Uber driver talks to the young people he chauffeurs, and often the topic turns to the upcoming election. Nearly all of the #FeelTheBern-supporting millennials say that they will sit out this election if Clinton is the nominee.
Their arguments are summed up in this Facebook post, captured in a thread I was following:
When Bill Clinton’s stump speech to this block of voters is to blame them for Democratic Party defeats in 2010 and 2014, I bet their attitude toward his wife won’t improve before November, either!
Finally, never forget that Superdelegates are the only reason Clinton is not in a more embarrassingly close race with Sanders now. There will no such saviors in the fall.
Again, the post is not offered as reasons to vote for Trump in an upcoming primary. I still urge everyone to vote their consciences. I simply wanted to offer counterarguments to the “doom and gloom” scenarios I see for this particular match-up.
I am and remain #NeverHillary. There are many reasons to be optimistic now and through the election cycle…and I intend to hold onto to each and every one of them until the end.
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Comments
Sanders people will make jump to Trump…
“And I have no doubt, that some of the grand swell of support that’s gone to Bernie Sanders could move over to Trump and I don’t think we should underestimate the impact of that”
Kinda what I have heard, and believe myself.
I believe it too, but it scares me.
Not the ones around here.
Trump needs enough white people who are not ideological liberals or conservatives, and I just don’t think they are out there.
It isn’t hard to believe for me, and it’s not necessarily that scary. It just suggests a lot of the Bernie support is more single issue or limited issues. And Trump’s chant about “fairness” covers a good deal of those issues.
It’s also the same reason (to me) that so many who self-identify as conservative did not vote for the most conservative candidate(s) during the primaries.
casualobserver wrote, “…It’s also the same reason (to me) that so many who self-identify as conservative did not vote for the most conservative candidate(s) during the primaries.”
Might it also be that many of the people who self-identify as conservative may hold conservative beliefs in only selective areas?
Just as a couple of examples:
Many Libertarians self-identify as conservative because they tend to hold fiscally conservative views – while tending to hold more liberal social views.
OTOH, NeoCons may self-identify as conservative because of their generally conservative social views – while holding fiscal views little different from liberal Democrats.
Ironically, many NoeCons do not consider Libertarians to be true conservatives – while many Libertarians feel the same about NeoCons.
Then again, many who hold both fiscally and socially conservative views consider neither Libertarians nor NeoCons to be true conservatives.
So, how many people who self-identify as conservative, actually hold mainly conservative views in all areas – or even most?
Sure. The primary electorate is composed of many types, just as the final election will be.
My only point was that two groups – those who identify as conservative and those who identify as liberal – seem to be very unpredictable this time around. Or they are at least less predictable than in recent history. And so the pundit class has been wrong frequently.
And Trump just may be the guy who can maintain unique shares of both sides come November. That’s how bizarre this cycle seems to me.
Up until a decade or so ago, I thought I understood politics. These days, I have no idea. The only solace is that obviously none of the usual talking heads and party leaders, both sides, do either. We could be looking at crushing defeats, either 1964 or 1984, or anything in between.
I agree with this. The #NeverTrumpers are seriously underestimating Trump, and I hate that they base their argument against him on “he can’t win”. So — if he can win, then he’s OK? Because I think he can – I don’t guarantee he can, I simply think its far far more probable than the #neverTrumpers want to admit.
I support Cruz, but have been disappointed in his inability to orient his campaign around the correct outcomes, vs. the correct policies to get to the best outcomes: economic freedom and less regulation = more, better paying jobs. Cruz may be a great debater, but he is not a great communicator on the order of Reagan.
Trump clearly understands how to brand himself (and importantly, others – “Corrupt Hillary”), and recognizes the importance of communication not to be “right” about policy, but about persuading people around their concerns. Cruz tries to channel Reagan, but Trump adopts his slogan and prints a zillion hats with it. Who’s smarter really?
Clinton, on the other hand, has no ability to persuade anyone to her cause. She has to do it 100% through surrogates – the media, Democratic arms like Planned Parenthood, unions. Most will remain loyal, many will remain effective. But not all, and not as much as the past. Unions risk defection over jobs, even media sees a windfall from a Trump presidency and will have an internal conflict.
Looks winnable to me. If Hillary goes into a coughing spell during a debate against Trump, who wins? Hands down, we know. It will be “there you go again” moment time for Trump.
So, I do think it could go either way, and the down ballot shifts could be significant and unpredictable. The #neverTrumpers raise potential concerns there – but not ones that should drive the conservative movement.
Digging in heels based on “he’s gonna lose” is wrong. Its got to be a better, more principled, and more persuasive argument than that … or its just a tantrum, and one that will wash all the credibility of the legitimate conservative voices in that group in the future. (and there are plenty of #nevertrumpers that are not legitimate and just lobbyists looking out for their own pockets – screw those crap weasels)
Its also more durable if we build a persuasive case around the policies we know are right – at the end of the day, if Trump is winning where he persuades people of the wrong policy but promising them the right outcome – the outcome that the right policy would deliver – then we didn’t do our job in communicating.
I was always taught never to sell a product based on its features or functions, but on how it would help the buyer achieve what he or she wanted or desired.
Conservatives, libertarians pay attention to one of the real messages of 2016.
Excellent! That’s the kind of discussion we SHOULD be having on LI rather than the drunken screaming from the usual suspects.
PrincetonAl makes an interesting argument.
I would point out that some of the #NeverTrumpers oppose the man not on the expected result (“he’s gonna lose and drag down the whole party with him”) but rather on their principles: they think the man to be an abomination and won’t vote for him. They won’t vote for Hillary, of course, so they’ll either stay home or vote for some 3rd party. The net result is a lost vote for the GOP, and in a tight election it doesn’t take too many of those to swing an election.
One wonders how much the Bernie #NeverHillary votes will cancel this out. I honestly don’t know.
DINORightMarie thinks that Trump is an easy target because of the large volume of opposition research. That might be true: then again, Hillary should be just as easy a target, and it doesn’t seem to be slowing her down right now.
PrincetonAl has a rejoinder to DINO’s argument: for both Trump and Hillary, most people have already made up their minds. I’m not confident at all of the end-result of that decision making, and so I can’t opine in which one is the biggest loser. To claim, as DINO does, that “Trump as nominee will GUARANTEE a Hillary presidency” is a stretch: one could just as easily argue the reverse.
There are parts of your tome of comments that I can agree with but your main obsession that people won’t vote for Trump because he cannot win is BS. That’s like going to Las Vegas and not playing Black Jack because you cannot win. How do you know unless you play? If Trump is the nominee it will be tough for him not to overplay his hand as he so frequently does. If he goes after hillary in the same way he went after Fiorina he will lose badly. If he goes after her record as both Senator and SoS he can beat her. His past performance does not bode well for him doing so. You like many of the other commenters seem to think that we non-Trump people do not like him because he is not your typical pol. That too is wrong. In my case, it is because he has said nothing of any depth about any issue he has discussed to my satisfaction. If you can’t handle a gun then don’t join the military. Trump hasn’t handled any subject with any intelligence so he should stay on T
V where he belongs.
I cannot believe this got 5 downvotes
Looks winnable to me. If Hillary goes into a coughing spell during a debate against Trump, who wins? Hands down, we know. It will be “there you go again” moment time for Trump.
(Trump) }Is there a doctor in the house?”
Still not a big fan of him, but I am an anti hitlery to the max.
Trump has amply demonstrated that he has the unique ability to focus on an opponent and drive down their support and poll numbers like no other GOP candidate. Trump compared to other GOP candidates both present and past is fearless at taking it to Hillary and the Clintons in ways the GOP has always been just plain too chicken to do. Trump appeals strongly to most of the GOP base plus many independents and democrats in a way not seen since Ronald Reagan. From center left to far right voters see the appeal and common sense of his “America First” policies that are directly opposed to the deconstructionist hate America First policies that rule the modern left, democrat party, and the PC culture to which the mainstream GOP elites have surrendered.
Trump is also the only GOP candidate with the media savvy to handle the always biased for Hillary MSM. Cruz nor any other GOP candidate other than Trump has the ability to survive the 100s of millions of dollars of PAC and MSM attacks that will be turned on them in the general election.
Finally to beat Hillary the GOP candidate must win Florida and Ohio. Cruz has already shown he will not win either of those states in general election having come in a distant 3rd in both states in the primaries.Radical protest movements that act both as the vanguard of the revolution for the far-left and the shock troops for establishment Democrats.
Everyone could see the American flags burning, the Mexican flags flying, the violence and the vulgarity all aimed at capitalism, freedom, and white Americans.
In my appearance Thursday morning on Breitbart News Daily on SiriusXM Patriot Channel 125, I connected the dots on a modern day axis of evil we see destroying the modern world: the deadly alliance between radical Islam and the radical Left.
I discussed the goal of these movements to destroy America and replace it with nation states divided along racial and cultural lines. It sounds crazy to think people really want to create the back-ruled country of New Afrikka out of America’s south or something as far-fetched as building a nation called Aztlan from the “stolen land” from California to Texas, but there it was on display in California.
In one video clip, a foul-mouthed female activist bleats into her megaphone about hating America’s values and railing against slavery, homophobia, and patriarchy.
The sick hypocrisy is that the leftists decrying slavery, homophobia, and patriarchy are defending Islamists who keep women as literal sex slaves, force female genital mutilations, and throw gay people off of buildings.
Everything the left claims to hate about the West is practiced in Muslim majority nations across the globe, which are the global leaders in the real war on women. If you want to see real rape culture, you’ll find it in gang assaults from the Arab Spring in Cairo to the New Years attacks in Cologne to the “migrant” camps springing up as the Muslim invasion of Europe continues.
Don’t count on the mainstream media to report it, however. Trained by the entrenched radicals of academia, they don’t dare color outside of the politically correct lines that have been set for them. They bring you cherry picked info filtered through ideological blinders that don’t let them report what’s really hapenning on the ground.
You can’t expect the GOP establishment or their media lapdogs to give you the unvarnished truth either. Yes, the worst media on the right probably brings you more real information than a left wing outlet on a good day, but a combination of fear of being tarred with leftist insults and kowtowing to global big business interests mutes the real story. Unfortunately, on issues from immigration policy to “mass incarceration” to foreign entanglements with counties like Saudi Arabia, too often the establishment right and left work in collusion.
Even self-defense against the protester gang is not tolerated. Note that when Donald Trump began to mock the disruptive mobs who had been attacking his supporters and trying to ruin his events for months, both the left and right establishment attacked Trump for creating an “atmosphere of violence.”
The California protests proved once again that Trump and his fans are the ones responding to an atmosphere of violence and anti-American hatred.
These are the reasons that Trump is the only candidate who can beat Hillary.
Sorry the above post of mine was ruined by an accidental paste from text on my telephone clipboard just as I was hitting the post button. Without an edit feature or the ability to delete the post all I can do is repost the intended text without the extraneous material.
Oh well, does this mean that you weren’t on the radio? I was really impressed,,, 🙂
Trump has amply demonstrated that he has the unique ability to focus on an opponent and drive down their support and poll numbers like no other GOP candidate. Trump compared to other GOP candidates both present and past is fearless at taking it to Hillary and the Clintons in ways the GOP has always been just plain too chicken to do. Trump appeals strongly to most of the GOP base plus many independents and democrats in a way not seen since Ronald Reagan. From center left to far right voters see the appeal and common sense of his “America First” policies that are directly opposed to the deconstructionist hate America First policies that rule the modern left, democrat party, and the PC culture to which the mainstream GOP elites have surrendered.
Trump is also the only GOP candidate with the media savvy to handle the always biased for Hillary MSM. Cruz nor any other GOP candidate other than Trump has the ability to survive the 100s of millions of dollars of PAC and MSM attacks that will be turned on them in the general election.
Finally to beat Hillary the GOP candidate must win Florida and Ohio. Cruz has already shown he will not win either of those states in general election having come in a distant 3rd in both states in the primaries.
These are the reasons that Trump is the only candidate who can beat Hillary.
I can remember people saying a ham sandwich could
beat Obama on the 2nd election ….
I suppose that could happen, if the ham sammie had a cool hat.
A ham sandwhich would have done better than Romney.
Jeez Gary, I see you are getting auto downvotes
Oh, please tell us all how you achieved this information. I went looking for a way to identify the voting list, and was unsuccessful.
Yep the cruzbots here are numerous and many of them auto downvote anything posted by persons known to have unapproved thoughts.
I don’t believe in men on White Horses. For that reason I don’t endorse candidates. Also I don’t believe any endorsement of mine count’s for much.
With the lame duck congress of 2014 I’ve done all I can to damage the Republican party. So also have millions of others. The Republican party has rendered itself largely irrelevant thru all those efforts & thru its own ham handed stupidity. It means nothing to me anymore.
It’s finally time we can go after the real enemy. Hillary will be torn limb from limb. We’ve been at this 7 years. Some of us decades longer. It wont be pretty.
I’ve said this before & I repeat it now. This wouldn’t be happening now without a Donald Trump.
H. W. Bush, Dole, W. Bush, McCain, Romney, the present Republican majority. All failures, all liars, all contemptible, all internationalist criminals.
Don’t hold back; Tell us what you really think LOL!
Oh, goody, another person working feverishly on burning the GOP in hopes of defeating the Democratic machine.
Really, how is it that destroying the GOP will help defeat the Democrats, most especially in the House and Senate?
The GOP is busily destroying themselves. Maybe the emerging political party will be different from the DNC, the GOP, as it currently acts, certainly isn’t.
The political Deck is stacked but this time all us little people are holding the Trump Card. I’d say we were all pretty lucky.
Counterargument: Why Donald Trump would vanquish Hillary Clinton
Hmmm. I seem to remember seeing statements very much like these before … sometimes on these very pages. Of course they were met then with vituperation and abuse by the usual suspects.
But, ahh, point of order, Mr Chairman—I’d like to suggest that the smarmy and condescending phrase “low-information voters” be retired, primarily because this electoral season everybody seems to be pretty damn low-information. (Though some are lower than others, naturally.) Imagination and plain old intelligence have been in conspicuously short supply, too. There’s no end of people who insist that they’re informed, enlightened, blah blah, and I’m sure they talk loudly in restaurants about it. But if they’re generating anything worthwhile, they don’t seem to be posting it online or pontificating about it on TV.
Maybe the word “populist” should go, too. It’s meaningless in a political context. Yes, I realize that it’s been used often in the history of American politics, either as a stock term used to obfuscate fuzzy thinking, or in some particular instances to refer to ancient crises du jour like “free silver”. But, usually, it’s meaningless. Now, if a candidate runs on an “un-populist” platform, that might be worth noting.
For what it’s worth, I agree with the overall speculative prognosis—I think it probable that Trump will flog and beat Hillary like she’s a Royal Navy swabbie with an attitude problem.
Typo report I think you meant “Trump will beat Clinton” not “Trump will be Clinton”.
Fixed. Thanks.
Naaaah. You got it right first time.
Let us put things in perspective.
I think Trump will beat Hillary easily, but if he cannot then I think no other candidate could either and it will be very bad news for the US.
It will mean that the Democrats are so entrenched that no one can beat Hillary despite all her negatives.
Two candidates with sky-high negatives means a low-turnout election. That’s the historical pattern anyway, and it makes sense: taking the trouble to vote isn’t generally inspired by the chance to hold one’s nose to vote for the lesser evil.
Who wins that race? Organization matters there. Will Trump develop it? So does the map. It’s hard to imagine the strongly red/strongly blue states moving. My bet would be on Hillary winning an election with turnout around 50% with the loss of about 4 Republican senators.
“…Two candidates with sky-high negatives means a low-turnout election…”
Doesn’t this clash with the high turnout for Republicans this year and the relatively low turnout for Dems, most of which I’ll credit to Trump.
Trump supporters are energized. And in the primaries, anti Trump voters were energized. So a high primary turnout in some states.
That a big chunk of both Republicans and Democrats will be unhappy with a Trump/Clinton race makes 2016 look something like 1976, when the Democratic left felt cheated that Carter came through the primaries and Reagan supporters were less than thrilled about Ford. Low turnout.
Delusional.
Trump is an EASY target – there is a YUGE amount of oppo-research material just waiting, being held back, until it’s CERTAIN it will be Trump as the Republican nominee.
He is literally HATED by both the youth and Democrats who believe in their party. In other words, they will NOT vote Trump!! Plus, those who voted for Trump in this primary season are a small group, not a majority. Those who VOTE REGULARLY (in EITHER party!) dislike Trump in record numbers, as well – in all demographics: women, African American, Latinos, and again the youth (as I mentioned before). All of these demos will vote for Hillary over Trump – and the MSM, the media mouthpiece for ONCE AGAIN CHOOSING OUR CANDIDATE, KNOW THIS!!! The open primary process, combined with the 24/7 Trump Broadcasting on ALL so-called “news” outlets have made the Trump MYTH, the Trump CON the populist phenomenon it has become. But don’t be deluded – he is despised, hated, by MANY. On BOTH sides of the aisle.
Don’t fool yourself. Trump is a KKK-endorsed (i.e. racists love them some Trump), womanizing (almost perfect “war on women” target), Democrat-supporting (no comment necessary – he admits this proudly!), “evil-rich” haters’ perfect-target (did you forget so soon the “occupy” “eat the rich” BS?), empty-suit (did you hear his nonsensical, puerile “foreign policy speech”?!) leftist-in-sheep’s-clothing (and that is proven over and over with his own mouth – during this race!) who will be CRUSHED in a match-up with ANY Democratic nominee. Hillary is the shoo-in Dem nominee – The Bern never had a chance – he was just a distraction to make it APPEAR there was some competition to suck the oxygen out of the Republican Primary race – and, regardless of her unpopularity with many (she is almost as unpopular in some polls as Trump!), people will VOTE HILLARY in all Blue states and in most Purple states IF Trump is the Republican nominee.
When choosing between two evils, all Democrats and most others will choose HILLARY over Trump, any day.
Remember – it is only a plurality (often under 35% even!) in almost all states that got Trump over the “winner take all” line, and that plurality is arguably NOT representative of the Party. The DELEGATES the states are sending, in fact, are a better litmus test of that.
Trump as nominee will GUARANTEE a Hillary presidency. To deny this clear image of reality, unfortunately, does not reflect reality in actuality. It’s a delusion.
Take off the rose-colored-glasses. Trump is a CON MAN (he’s going to court ON THE FIRST DAY OF THE CONVENTION IN CLEVELAND for this!); he’s conned too many…..and the MSM (including Hannity and Rush) have MADE TRUMP POSSIBLE.
Too many will NOT vote for him, will stay home, or will VOTE HILLARY over Trump.
And the Republican Party will be truly, nails-in-the-coffin dead.
IF Trump is the nominee.
Trump is a LOSER, big time. A whiny-baby loser who will pick up where he left off and THRIVE after this election, AFTER HE LOSES. It is NOTHING TO HIM if he loses…..in fact, he will probably write BOOKS about how he CONNED people by using the populist rhetoric that has tapped into the fear, hate, and anger that is fueling his core-supporters, making MILLIONS off of this BIG CON.
Trump. Will. Lose. BIG!!!
And we will have to suffer through criminal-Hillary. For. Four. LONG. Years.
I agree, but I think this works as a devil’s (Cruz’s) advocate.
“there is a YUGE amount of oppo-research material just waiting, being held back, until it’s CERTAIN it will be Cruz as the Republican nominee.”
See how that works?
Put up or admit you’re just making it up. Or, calling the republicans stupid for not using all that “research” material.
Leslie, I can see why you married your husband – for the common sense and insight. No Eeyore is he.
Trump becoming the nominee will be a True Crime Story!
Understandably furious at GOP leaders, Trump fans swoon to the charlatan promise of a fortress wall that will never be built, much less paid for by Mexico.
Meanwhile, it doesn’t seem to register with these voters that Trump is promising to give legal status to millions of illegal aliens after temporarily deporting them.
If we had a responsible media, this would surprise no one. In just the last three years, Trump has tweeted in apparent support of the Gang of Eight immigration bill (the same one that advocacy for which killed Rubio’s campaign) and has urged giving illegal aliens a “path” to legal status — and Trump was willing to grant this “path” under the express but exaggerated assumption that the illegal-alien population was 30 million (it is more likely 11 million, nearly three times less).
Moreover, in 2012, Trump described as “maniacal” and “crazy” a proposal to enforce the immigration laws in a manner that incentivizes illegal aliens to “self-deport.” Yes, only four years ago, the guy who now says he’d round them all up and deport them was complaining that merely pressuring illegal aliens to leave on their own was too “mean-spirited.”
Obviously, it would make no sense, and there is not nearly enough money, to kick 11 million people out of the country just so you can usher them back into the country, duly minted as legal immigrants.
So take this to the bank: If Trump were elected president, there would not be the mass deportations his followers crave; he would skip that step and move on to the amnesty they abhor.
Trump is the Washington establishment, the very embodiment of its progressive pieties, cloaked in tough-guy bravado. It is thus an amazing thing to behold: In our “insurgent election,” voters are so incensed at Republican-party leaders that if John Boehner and Mitch McConnell had run for president, they’d have gotten even less support than Chris Christie, who failed to win a single delegate despite $31 million spent on his candidacy.
Yet millions of those voters have been taken in by Donald Trump, who funds the establishment they tell us they despise and would press the agenda that has driven them from the GOP.
When will they realize they’ve been had?
Read more at: http://www.nationalreview.com/article/434787
/donald-trump-insurgent-republican-establishment-media
Some will never admit they’ve been had.
Others are not mere dupes. They are Collectivist hacks, and T-rump is their guy.
Donald Trump is simply a businessman, not an ideological politician. He has never claimed to a Conservative, that was Ted Cruz. But, in the case of both Trump and Cruz, their stances on immigration, trade and other issues have changed over the years. Cruz proposed an amendment to the Gang of Eight amnesty bill, which would still have allowed amnesty, without deportation, while blocking the “fast track to citizenship” provisions. Cruz was for TPA, before he was against it and was, apparently, a supporter of NAFTA both prior to its passage and after. Also, Cruz has close ties to the Wall Street financial community through his wife, Heidi, and through the Bush family.
So, in the case of both candidates, at this point, we have no true idea how they would govern. We can probably safely assume that Trump would govern as a moderate. But, we have no real indication that Cruz would govern as conservative.
But, in the short run, it really does not matter to most Trump supporters. They are not voting for his policies, which are still rather nebulously expressed and can be easily stymied by the establishment politicians in Congress. They are not voting for him because he is likable. They are voting for him, in droves, because he is a political outsider who has taken a strong anti-establishment, populist stance. They are sending a clear message to the establishment. And, as Ms. Eastman pointed out, many people are asking themselves, what do they have to lose by putting a successful, political outsider, businessman into the WH.
https://pjmedia.com/election/2016/04/29/donald-trump-is-the-quintessential-establishment-candidate/
Boehner’s BBF and Hellary’s financier is NOT an “outsider” OR anti-Establishment.
He’s the Mr. Establishment he’s ALWAYS been. Anyone who thinks differently is simply delusional.
Trump claimed just this last Friday that: “I am a conservative.” See the video clip on a HotAir post.
This the most infuriating point about Donald Trump that I can think of … he is just a businessman. NO he is NOT. He is a rent seeker. He is an Orrin Boyle capitalist.
He is advocating for the very rules that allow him to seek favor among the cronies in the government, and because of that he isn’t a free market capitalist, he is a crony capitalist. As a president he will continue to advocate for these rules under the guise of capitalism. The craziest part of all of this is that the middle class and the poor think that cronyism IS capitalism and they think that somehow it is going to help them. News flash, the only people that cronyism helps are the rich and well connected, and this is done at the expense of the poor and middle class. Really Dear Leader has already given us a taste of hard core cronyism, why on earth would we want four more years of it under the R brand.
I find this one point to be the biggest lie about Donald Trump that there is.
Businessmen play by the rules as they exist, not as they wish the rules were. Businesses that follow the latter course are punished, similar to Apple when it lost what should have been a patent case, presented as intellectual property rights in the novel area of “look and feel.”
Apple is famous for squandering a 10-year technological lead, because they thought they did not have to pay attention to existing law.
Prosecutors also play by the rules as they exist. Earl Warren had been a prosecutor, and when he was appointed to the Supreme Court, people expected him to be a law and order jurist. What he did on the court was substantially reform some of the abuses of our criminal justice system, in a series of cases that deeply surprised his sponsors.
Donald Trump’s supporters seem to be very sure that he will perform a similar function, with respect to the crony capitalism that has crept into our system. I would love to see that result, and I am not at all sure he intends to, or can, deliver.
“Trump is a businessman, not an ideological politician”?!!
There is a major disconnect going on.
Trump knows enough about business to want to become a chameleon ideological politician just like Hillary. Trump’s main interest: to increase his deference, his power and his influence. To do so, he (and his brand) must become card carrying members of the Ruling Class. Trump wants to join Hillary and Boehner and the rest. Trump knows that the government trough is getting bigger every day. And he wants to partake. Trump tasted from the government trough with his eminent domain stolen pie episode.
We as a nation have a ton to loose if Trump is elected. The learning curve for Trump is enormous, let alone the fact that Trump has no core values to speak of. None.
The ends (getting -r Donny into the WH & not Hillary) do not justify the means (voting for a -r immoderate knee-jerk narcissist). Nothing is justified for a Trump nomination, unless you love authoritarians.
Hillary is definitely in if Trump is the nominee. Hillary knows how to play the Ruling Class game. Trump is at the bottom of the learning curve eager to get started.
“Some will never admit they’ve been had.”
No, I don’t think you will. You’ve been had by the National Review for starters…
It is simply too early to make any prediction as to whether Trump or Clinton would win in a November match-up. We have not seen the general election campaign strategies of either of these two candidates, and their campaigns will be different than their primary campaigns, if history is any judge. We have no real way of determining how much Sanders support either will pick-up, nor how well either will do with the independent voters. And, of course, we have no real idea of the extent of effect Democrat vote fraud, which has been clearly visible in the last four Presidential election cycles.
So, all that we are left with, upon which to base a prediction, are the current polls, which are all being conducted during a highly contentious Republican primary, and actual voting statistics. In the case of voting statistics, we see that Clinton is receiving some of the lowest vote counts of any Democrat nominee in recent history. Trump is receiving the highest vote count of any Republican primary candidate, ever. Hillary is a pure establishment insider and Trump is a pure anti-establishment outsider, in a year where there is a phenomenal amount of anti-establishment feeling. Until about September, there will be no way to effectively predict an outcome of the general election, if it is a Clinton-Trump match-up.
How is it that an unindicted felon can even be running for any office? With all the people in this country we have a choice of a traitor, a socialist and a reality star.
Clinton beats Trump is not, as you said a “doom and gloom ” scenario. Both are equally despicable and both share the agenda. However, where Clinton will triangulate, Trump has the cover to push it. Not to mention this will be the end of conservatism. If Trump is the nominee I may vote for Hillary.
LOL! As we both live in California, I don’t expect our November vote will mean much. However, I look forward to seeing what the June primary results are…and preparing a follow-up post if the match-up is different than Trump/Clinton. 😀
“If Trump is the nominee I may vote for Hillary.”
Please do. All you #nevertrumpers are the same. You prefer a known commie to your fear of what you have convinced yourself trump might be.
I have said we first have defeat the GOPe in order to defeat the leftists in this country. Apparently the rot runs much deeper than we knew.
IN – 2016 GOP Presidential Primary: Donald Trump 49% – Ted Cruz 34% – John Kasich 13% – (NBC/WSJ/Marist 05/01/2016)
Source: NBC/WSJ/Marist
Method: Phone
Date: 04/26/2016 – 04/28/2016
Voters: 645 (Likely voters)
Margin of Error: 3.9 %
Full Result:
Trump 49%
Cruz 34%
Kasich 13%
So much for the IPFW poll.
In the past many NBC/WSJ polls have cooked the books against Trump in their polls. Who knows if this is honest or if they are trying reverse psychology to supress Trump turn out.
I’ll take the actual polling data over hairdresser stories, if you don’t mind. And that data indicates that while Clinton’s favorability among Democrats is going down, her current is +36. Meanwhile, Trump current favorability among Republicans is +9, and has never been as high as +36.
In other words, no, Democrats are not going to vote Trump. Neither are Republicans.
Frankly, I wouldn’t trust any poll data out there…as it has proven notoriously unreliable. But that’s me!
Poll data, while it is not always as accurate and reliable as anyone would like, is still the closest thing there is to factual information there is. Discounting facts is never a good idea.
I will simply reassert that unreliable polls are less factual than the statements made by actual voters.
But we shall see what we shall see at the end of the election cycle.
Polling is a bit like weather forecasts. Local polls a few weeks out are fairly reliable, like the local weather forecast a few days out. Polling of a national election, before the candidates have even been selected, is like a weather forecast 1 year out.
Please excuse me, but a record number of Republican primary voters disagree with you.
If you are doubting my numbers (they came from Gallup, btw), feel free to post better ones. Otherwise, you are talking out of your… well…
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/indiana-republican/
Note the weighting they give the relative polls.
They project the winner in Indiana is CRUZ.
Better look again Ragsy. 538 predicts Trump has 69% chance of winning Indiana based on polls plus the effect of their opinions regarding non poll factors.
Based on polls alone 538 predicts Trump has a 94% chance of winning Indiana.
Although I don’t put much weight in 538 they have been wrongly predicting Trump won’t win since last June.
Direct headline top of page prominent in bold quote from linked 538 article:
“According to our latest polls-plus forecast, Donald Trump has a 69% chance of winning the Indiana primary.”
Rabid Pierre’s take on this:
“They project the winner in Indiana is CRUZ.”
mmmmDOH Stadistics is doh HARD
— RabidPierre 2016
Look at the projection from yesterday, asshole.
lmao!
Yea, don’t pay any attention to today’s “prediction”, look at one from the past.
LOL. As though anything from 538 has been correct. So, at least you have that going for you.
Rut Row Ragsy,
Today here are the 538 odds of Trump winning Indiana:
According to our latest polls-only forecast, Donald Trump has a 97% chance of winning the Indiana primary.
According to our latest polls-plus forecast, Donald Trump has an 83% chance of winning the Indiana primary.
538’s weighted average of polls is Trump +8%.
Trump: “If We Win Indiana, It’s Over”: Donald Trump Predicts Victory
If we win Indiana, it’s over … and we can go on to Crooked Hillary,” he said, to cheers, using the new nickname he has coined for the former Secretary of State. Clinton is closing in on a delegate majority in the Democratic race, though Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT)
16%
only a few points behind in Indiana polls.
Trump predicted confidently that he would, by the end of the California primary on June 7, reach the 1,237 delegates needed to claim an outright majority on the first ballot at the Republican National Convention in Cleveland in July
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/05/01/donald-trump-rally-win-indiana/
Today Cruz was overheard telling Fiorina that after he loses Indiana next Tuesday he will announce his cabinet picks.
Video compilation of Hillary playing the woman card.
https://youtu.be/xlDqptoRR28
I think Trump is being very, very clever.
He accuses Hillary of playing the “woman card.” And then audaciously claims that “if she were a man she wouldn’t get 5% of the vote.” (That latter statement is true: were she a man she’d be an establishment figure like Jeb Bush or Martin O’Malley.)
Hillary falls for the trap: she prints up “woman cards” to distribute to her donors, and comes up with PBS-like gifts, such as handbags that proclaim “a woman’s place is in the White House.”
So people who really care about having a woman for president are probably 20-25% of the electorate. And they’re already gonna vote for Hillary, regardless of what Trump says. So he’s giving her that slice of the vote.
But what he’s also doing is tagging her as a single-issue candidate. The ONLY reason to vote for Hillary, Trump will claim, is because she’s a woman. He’s cornering her so indelibly as the ‘woman candidate’ that she’ll never get another word in edgewise. If you care about anything else then you should vote for Trump. And as I said, she’s falling for it hook, line and sinker.
So expect Trump to keep making attention-getting remarks about Hillary as a woman. That’ll win him every news cycle. And then: she voted for the Iraq war; she voted for NAFTA; she supported the TPP; she’s against the wall; she couldn’t answer the phone at 3am when Benghazi called; she lacks the energy and stamina to be president; she’s old and sick. Maybe Corrupt Hillary really is a woman, but she can’t Make America Great Again.
If Hillary can’t escape that trap then Donald wins hands down.
Byron York: How GOP bigwigs made their peace with Trump
But the fact is, some influential Republicans are beginning to question the assumption that Trump is guaranteed to lose big.
That’s the kind of change that decisive primary victories produce. Add to that the belief that Trump’s only remaining GOP rival, Cruz, is too unlikeable to win the White House. “The memories of Trump’s last outrageous statements have faded a little bit and he’s won big,” said another insider. “I think that Boehner obviously put it in pretty blunt language [“Lucifer in the flesh”], but he kind of reflected what the so-called establishment feels. They think they might be able to get along with Trump but remember that they can’t get along with Cruz.”
But the bottom line is, they can read election results. They realize the voters are telling them something. And they are moving toward accepting Trump as their nominee. “If anything,” said another insider, “it may be happening faster than you think.”
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/byron-york-how-gop-bigwigs-made-their-peace-with-trump/article/2589905
White Flag: Neocon J-Pod Says Trump ‘Going To Be The Nominee’
Neoconservative figure and “Commentary” editor John Podhoretz admitted Sunday that Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee for president.
Bar Rags :
What were you & Milquetoast/sop doing to that Great Dane under the bleachers late Tuesday? And why did it involve a turkey baster, 5 ft of surgical tubing, a hot water bottle & garden tools?
Rut Row
New Rasmussen poll shows Trump pulling into lead against Hillary. So much for the Cruz/GOPe talking point lie that Trump can’t win.
Trump 41%, Clinton 39%
Last week, Rasmussen Reports gave voters the option of staying home on Election Day if Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are the big party nominees, and six percent (6%) said that’s what they intend to do for now. Clinton and Trump were tied with 38% support each; 16% said they would vote for some other candidate, and two percent (2%) were undecided.
But Trump edges slightly ahead if the stay-at-home option is removed. Trump also now does twice as well among Democrats as Clinton does among Republicans.
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely U.S. Voters finds Trump with 41% support to Clinton’s 39%. Fifteen percent (15%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
Rut Row, Rut Row, Triple Rut, Row,
New Polls shows Clinton and Trump effectively tried in Ohio, but Clinton beating Cruz by 9%. In Indiana Trump extends his lead to 17% (Trump 44% Cruz 27%).
Like I said many times, Cruz can’t win Ohio and Florida and that means he can NEVER WIN IN NOVEMBER. The cruzbots need to come to terms with the fact that TRUMP is the ONLY hope to beat Hillary. TRUMP WILL BEAT HILLARY.
OH – 2016 Presidential Election: Hillary Clinton 44% – Ted Cruz 35% – (PPP 05/02/2016)
OH – 2016 Presidential Election: Hillary Clinton 45% – Donald Trump 42% – (PPP 05/02/2016) (Statistical Tie)
Indiana – Gravis 4/28 – 4/29 379 LV 5.0 44 27 9 Trump +17