Cruz engineering second ballot defection of “Trump delegates” (Update)
Trump’s delegate castle built on sand.
If Donald Trump gets 1237 delegates prior to the Republican convention, it’s lights out.
But that is looking less and less likely unless Trump scores a major upset in Wisconsin on Tuesday, at the Colorado convention on April 9 (where the delegates technically are unbound but the sides are fighting to get their people selected as in North Dakota), and wins big in New York on April 19.
Cruz has little chance himself of getting to 1237 prior to the convention, so his strategy is focused on the second ballot.
That strategy, as it is playing out in real time, has two components: Make sure only Trump and Cruz are the choices facing the convention, and make sure there are large defections on the second ballot of delegates pledged to Trump on the first ballot.
Strategy, Part 1: Keep it Trump or Cruz
When it comes to keeping it to two, Trump and Cruz are on the same page. They are planning to fight to keep Kasich from being put in nomination, much less someone not currently in the race.
The NY Times reports:
Senator Ted Cruz of Texas on Monday warned the Republican Party against pushing an “uber-Washington lobbyist” as a possible nominee at a contested convention, insisting that only he or Donald J. Trump should be chosen….
Both Mr. Trump and Mr. Cruz have made the case that Mr. Kasich’s exit from the race would help their campaigns. On Monday, Mr. Cruz invoked a rule from 2012 requiring prospective nominees to have won a majority of delegates in at least eight states, which could be hurdle for Mr. Kasich.
Mr. Cruz said that the rule had been intended to limit the influence of supporters of Ron Paul in 2012, suggesting that party leaders were now receiving a bit of karmic retribution.
“What’s good for the goose is good for the gander,” he said, adding, “We shouldn’t be changing the rules because Washington is unhappy with how the people are voting.”
If someone other than Mr. Cruz or Mr. Trump were to be selected as the nominee, Mr. Cruz said, “the people would quite rightly revolt.”
Cruz didn’t threaten riots or Days of Rage, but he made clear that he wants to give delegates only two choices — Trump or Cruz.
On this point Team Trump is in agreement, as NBC News reports:
The Donald Trump and Ted Cruz campaigns are working to prevent John Kasich from appearing on the ballot at the Republican National Convention in July, MSNBC has learned, an aggressive strategy suggesting the GOP’s leading candidates are girding for a contested convention to select the party’s nominee.
On Sunday, Trump told a supporter that “Kasich shouldn’t be allowed to continue and the RNC shouldn’t allow him to continue.” ….
Both campaigns are backing a rule that would require candidates to achieve a minimum amount of support to get on the ballot, which could block Kasich in Cleveland. That would effectively end his campaign.
So as to Strategy, Part 1 — Cats and Dogs are getting along. But that’s where it ends.
Strategy, Part 2 — Work Prior to the Convention to To Ensure Large-Scale Defections of “Trump Delegates”
Cruz has been fighting hard, using state delegate selection rules, to obtain as many delegates as possible to keep Trump from 1237.
Cruz’s use of Louisiana selection rules netted him more delegates than Trump even though Trump won the popular vote. Trump threatened suit, but as of this writing has not done so.
Cruz also is executing an effective ground game for delegates in North Dakota and in Colorado, where delegates technically are unbound, but Cruz is getting his people selected:
Ted Cruz is emerging as the Republican favorite to win Colorado after he captured the state’s first six national delegates and leads his rivals into this week’s party convention with the most pledged support.
Donald Trump is a distant second place, according to early results, and his supporters are outnumbered among the GOP activists vying for national delegate seats at the Cleveland convention.
But that strategy can only keep Trump from reaching 1237 on the first ballot. The primaries matter at the convention only to the extent a candidate can keep his delegates committed on later ballots, and get another candidate’s delegates to defect.
Since Cruz likely will have significantly fewer first ballot delegates, he needs to get a lot more delegate votes on the second ballot and beyond. Some of those may come from Marco Rubio and John Kasich delegates, but that is unlikely in itself to give Cruz a majority. Cruz needs Trump delegates to defect on ballot 2 and beyond.
Cruz is working to get delegates who technically are pledged to Trump. After the first ballot, they’re free to vote Cruz. The Washington Examiner describes the efforts in Arizona, which Trump won easily:
Sen. Ted Cruz is out-hustling Donald Trump and looks set to ensure many Arizona delegates will defect to him in a convention floor fight.
The Texas senator, who ever since Iowa has played a stealthy ground game in contrast to Trump’s chaotic populism, is taking steps to snatch the Republican presidential nomination from The Donald at the convention in July.
The New York businessman easily won last month’s Arizona primary taking 47 percent to Cruz’s 25 percent, scooping up all 58 of the state’s delegates. That’s nearly 5 percent of the 1,237 Trump needs for the nomination, and they’re tied are to him on the first ballot.
But Cruz, exploiting deep opposition to Trump among grassroots Republicans, has been far more active in Arizona than Trump, insiders say. He’s recruiting candidates for the available 55 delegate slots, that along with the other three delegate positions filled by party leaders, would be allowed to vote for him in a multi-ballot contested convention.
Trump is fighting at the 10,000 foot level, dominating the media and holding huge rallies. It’s worked so far.
But Cruz is undermining Trump by fighting in the trenches with a much more effective ground game at the delegate level.
Trump may find that his delegate lead is a castle built on sand, washed away with the approach of the second convention ballot.
UPDATE 4-5-2016: To Trump supporters complaining that the delegate rules are being used against him, consider how the delegate rules actually have given Trump a huge advantage unrelated to vote numbers. Via David Wasserman of 538 website:
If Ted Cruz wins by a huge margin in Milwaukee’s suburbs, as expected tonight, he’ll get all three delegates from Wisconsin’s 5th Congressional District, which cast 257,017 votes for Mitt Romney in the 2012 general election. But in two weeks, Donald Trump could capture just as many delegates by winning a majority of the vote in New York’s heavily Latino, Bronx-based 15th Congressional District, which cast only 5,315 votes for Romney four years ago.
Three weeks ago, Trump won three times as many delegates — nine — at the Northern Mariana Islands convention, which drew just 471 participants.
Welcome to Trump’s “rotten boroughs,” the curious places where mere handfuls of voters (relatively speaking) are keeping him in the hunt for the 1,237 delegates required to clinch the GOP nomination. And the quirks of the Republican National Committee’s delegate math — the ones once considered a safeguard against an upsetting of the party order by an insurgent like Trump — will take on a more pronounced role as the GOP contest enters its late stages.
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“Trump’s delegate castle built on sand.”
Millions of votes in America are mere “sand.”
And the SCOTUS once more gives illegal aliens succor.
It’s sickening. The United States of Mexico.
You really have no idea what you’re talking about, do you. The SCOTUS didn’t give illegal aliens “succor.” The plaintiffs in that case never had a chance. The “whole population” rule has always been constitutional. If this was about giving “succor” to illegal aliens then Thomas and Alito wouldn’t have agreed with the majority. But it wasn’t about illegal aliens; that’s why the ruling was unanimous.
As far as voters being “mere sand,” you never knew that when you vote for Trump (or anybody) in a primary you’re voting for delegates? Not the candidate?
Face it; there may be millions of Trump voters but they don’t even make a majority in the Republican primary. When I last checked in February they only amounted to 3% more than Cruz voters. Stomp your foot all you want and cry, but that doesn’t mean you get your way.
But I know, I know. It’s so unfair for Cruz to keep beating Trump in the chase for delegates by outsmarting him according to the rulebook in the chase for delegates.
SCOTUS has a habit of normalizing illegal aliens, and TO HELL with the constitution.
To HELL with it, they say.
Plyler v. Doe, 457 U.S. 202 (1982)
shh… don’t tell the Trumpophobes any of this, Ok?
It might trigger all sorts of hateful nasty reactions…
DC Madam’s Phone Records Have Been Obtained
LMAO you are seriously going to hold up an article that considered the National Enquirer to be real journalism.
Actually, most Americans, if not all, had no idea that we were only voting for delegates, not the potential nominee. You see, it’s like voting for the president. One goes in and pulls the lever and the person with the most votes – wins.
It’s obvious that the primary election is just smoke and mirrors for the political party machine to pull off their version of the old smoke-filled backrooms.
BTW, most fair-minded people have no problem about the “rules.” The problem is that the State political machine is manipulating who gets into the local district conventions and the state conventions for the choosing of the delegates to vote.
People voted in good faith in their states, and they certainly didn’t expect for the losers of the primaries to pack the convention with their delegates. It’s all been a scam, and now we find that the Republicans are quite good at stuffing the ballot box, only it just a different box.
I’d venture to say the vast majority of Americans aren’t politically aware and into the gamesmanship and sleight of hand of dirty politics.
It’s clear that having ethics and a conscience mean nothing. What was that saying? Oh yes, Machiavellian quotes are appropriate for what’s going on, and apparently the Democrats aren’t the only ones who live by “the end justifies the means.”
My personal apologies to you, though Arminius, I’m usually not so snarky, but I’m angry at the system that everyone is justifying. No offense intended.
“You see, it’s like voting for the president. One goes in and pulls the lever and the person with the most votes – wins.”
Well, no. It is NOT like that in EITHER case.
And if people are stupid and ignorant of the processes, that does not make the processes “corrupt” or “Machiavellian”. It just makes the people stupid and ignorant.
Yes, Rags, I know about the electoral college, but at least it’s based on the state’s voters’ decision. And that’s why the popular vote nationally doesn’t always square up with the final outcome. The electoral college was designed to keep the large urban states from controlling all the power in the country.
But within the state, disenfranchising the people’s votes, well that’s not so right.
I realize everyone is happy about that, but then again, it takes an open mind to see the big picture, not just the perspective that we have to hate someone like you all demand the rest of us hate.
“…not just the perspective that we have to hate someone like you all demand the rest of us hate.”
That’s just a pitiful straw man. And I mean REALLY pitiful.
Actually Rags it makes them uneducated or ignorant. Civics is such a glossed over subject compared to the days you and I went to school. We were taught how the government is supposed to operate not some liberal vision of how it should operate.
I don’t like the primary system either, but let’s not gloss over a few other salient facts:
1) It requires a majority of electoral votes (not a plurality) to win the Presidency. Failing that, the Congress (House only) decides.
2) It requires a majority of delegate votes to win the nomination, and requires most delegates to vote as bound to the primary results on the first ballot. Failing that, the delegates are allowed to mostly decide independently.
There is nothing wrong with a majoritarian requirement – in fact, it is prefered. However, there is a fair question about why delegates shouldn’t be chosen as true representatives of the candidate.
Unfair? Perhaps but so is:
1) Allowing non-Republicans to vote in Republican primaries.
2) Winner take all.
3) Disproportional weighting of delegates on behalf of the “winner”.
Were these elections “fairer”, Trump would have had no more than 38.5 percent (his approx. popular vote). AND were they TRUELY FAIR, the primaries would have been closed and Trump would have gotten 1/3 to 1/2 fewer votes.
So with bitching about the fairness of the rules, it depends on whose ox is gored, no?
You know what, I think we should make it completely fair, just like they want. Lets change it to where you get the same % of delegates that you do of the votes cast.
Of course then they would really be pissed because Cruz would have many more delegates now and Trump many less. Since Cruz is only about 3% behind trump in actual votes.
So your complaint is that the system is working as intended? Seriously?
What next? Hold your breath, turn purple, and hope everything will change?
In reality, this is a tale of two candidates and the consequences of their actions. Trump thought he could bull his way to the nomination. His campaign is based on rancor and self-serving statements. We now see the candidate has no clothes (or in Trump’s case, clothes not made in the US). Trump played a very large part in winnowing the field.
Cruz, unlike everyone else in the field, played the long game. While others were immediately trashing Trump, Cruz was building a foundation in 50 states. I saw the genesis of this a year ago, but I never thought Cruz would get this far. Thus, I backed Walker and Perry. I saw the budding potential of Cruz after Labor Day, but I was still skeptical. I am no longer a skeptic about Cruz and his chance to win in November.
Unlike Trump, Cruz is tactical, strategical, and most of all, a political junkie. While Trump was playing checkers, Cruz was playing chess. That should tell you much about the two men.
While you and the other Trumpkins whine, the Cruz ground game goes unabated.
Your name-calling is ill-placed. People have the right to support their candidate without being called a “Trumpkin” or a “Cruzbot.” The only point I am trying to make – and it definitely is an important one, was about the so-called rules which are being manipulated by the Establishment GOP, Cruz separately (maybe together who knows what to believe at this point) and your saying that too bad Trump wasn’t playing the political game is actually a positive as a person vs the so amazingly “clever” Cruz.
As someone who supported Cruz for a long time, the more I’ve seen, the less I like him. We’ll see how it plays out, but using (and being used by the GOP-E) and being sneaky and manipulative doesn’t come off as positive character traits, nor are they in the best interests of the people.
The only folks who are claiming manipulation of the rules are the folks who never bothered to read the rules.
Aren’t you at least happy the candidate you used to support actually read the rules?
No, not really. Manipulation of the rules which is being evidenced by making sure Trump supporters are not selected to go to the National Convention isn’t anything to be proud of. It’s also deceptive to call “Trump delegates” as “defecting,” since since they’re not Trump supporters being given those slots, just the same old political machine controlling the process as they’ve always done – which keeps them in power.
I see Cruz as a clever politician right now, doing the dirty work of the GOP. Yes, that may be the game of politics but the people would actually like a little more integrity in the process.
Seems to me that nothing Trump has said has had any effect on your logic . While Mr.Cruz and his sudden ‘Long game’ came about very quickly . While Cruz is Owned by ‘Wall St’ as they always are he is now on the ‘Yellow brick road.’ Same cr_p i’ve seen my whole life.
American voting and primary’s plus the convention is the trifecta for dirty greedy self serving people to have enough chances to make any dirty deed look legit.
Very very disappointed in the lies and political rape being practiced in the U.S . I may not be as intelligent as most of you. But ,i do process tratical common sense that tells me ‘It’s now all rigged .’ You’ll get your Wall st bud Cruz and America will fail and fall . But the Super-rich globalists from the U.S will not be effected at all ,no matter what our lying MSM says .
With out Trump , America is dead !! Old Nam Vet rant over .
You sound as intelligent as the rest of us. Not a political junkie maybe, but that’s it.
‘It’s now all rigged .’
I will ask you a question. When the GOP holds open primaries where Independents and Democrats can crossover and vote for the GOP nominee, did you complain about that?
I would hazard a guess and say no, because your guy was winning. Now that the primaries are going through the closed process, the game is somehow rigged.
It should be noted that WI is open and Cruz is poised to carry the state.
This is why it is called politics. When Trump was 1 of 17, he looked pretty good. Now that Trump is 1 of 3, the more focus is put on him, and he doesn’t look as good.
Cruz and his wife are very dangerous people to the American way of life. Cruz will take it now , lose to Billary and i pack my bags and move to Mars !!
Complicating Cruz’ effort is that he needs Kasich’s help in NY, a deep blue state unlikely to elect Cruz, favoring native son and liberal Trump or moderate Kasich. In NY, candidates need to win 50% of the vote in individual districts to avoid proportional assignment of delegates from those districts.
It’s a pipe dream that Kasich ends up with the nomination on multiple ballots at the convention. It is far easier to see Kasich’s delegates moving to Cruz once unbound.
Meanwhile, Trump continues with his foot-in-mouth disease, saying he shouldn’t have to win a majority of delegates (1,237) to win the nomination because….. OK, he hasn’t offered any reason for this assertion beyond implied entitlement because he’s Donald Trump, after all.
In New York State, in the Republican (but not the Democratic) primary, they are also electing delegates individually, by name. Each delegate candidate on the ballot will have the presdential candidte he is pledged to listed by his name.
Larry Sabato and others don’t seem to have the full and accurate details.
No Sammy it is the exact opposite. Dems can vote for the delegates but Reps vote for the candidates. The state Republican Party chooses the delegates after the primary results.
I’d venture to say it shouldn’t have to be a matter of being “built on sand,” but built on fairness and honesty. What the Republican party is showing is sleazy political wheeling and dealing. That’s also why it’s been so hard to effect change in our state parties, because the GOP machine has control, and this is how we ended up with Dole, McCain, Romney.
If the nominee wins fair and square, fine. If they steal the nomination, millions will abandon the GOP. Going around and manipulating whose delegates go to the convention, which is happening – and the state political party apparatchiks are doing it in all states – including Virginia, is nothing more than the 21st century’s version of spoke-filled back rooms. It’s also unscrupulous, but it’s clear that the GOP-E has no problem being as corrupt as the other political party we’ve supposedly been fighting against all these years.
You’re all gleeful that Cruz can pull this off. 1) I have my doubts the GOP-E will “let” him get the nod. 2) I think the Dems can beat us with him as our nominee. His appeal is too limited, and the GOP “base” isn’t enough anymore to bring the prize home. It just isn’t.
I think the Dems can beat us with him as our nominee. I think that is their plan. If they can’t get their guy (puppet, lackey, etc.) then Hillary is their next best outcome. And, as Henry pointed out a couple days ago, the Republican Party doesn’t have to be fair. They pretty much can and will call the shots.
If Ted is the nominee, I’ll vote for him, for sure. But I’ll have no illusions about his positions on the most important issues facing us which are demography, debt, and trade.
No illusions. Mr. I was for TPP, then I was against it, and Mr. McConnell lied to me about it.
TPP, TiSA, all of them are detrimental. We are building China’s man-made islands for them.
Ted was at a “Kill the Gays” rally. Video here:
That will be a BIG selling point for him in the general election, don’t you think?
I will say this, all the speculation about democrats crossing over to vote in the GOP’s primaries, is more about voters responding to Trump’s calls to end unfair trade and stop illegal immigration.
Those people probably will not vote for Cruz. He didn’t make these items his signature issues as Trump did from his first speech.
“Those people probably will not vote for Cruz.”
Your right they will not vote for Cruz. I don’t believe they will vote for Trump in the general either. They were just trying to manipulate our primary and choose the candidate that they believe they can beat. I also believe that is why we ended up with McCain and Romney the last two election cycles. The Dems swung the pendulum early and the MSM picked up and “anointed” them and carried them to victory. The funniest thing about all of this is that all of those elements have done the same for Trump but he still cannot get over the top. Why is that? Could it be he is the most despised candidate since Carter? Maybe instead of complaining about Cruz preparing the battlefield for a contested convention you should be focusing on how that is even possible with everything Trump was given.
The way someone wins the nomination “fair and square” is to receive the votes of a majority of the delegates. This has been the rule since the beginning of the Republican Party in 1856. If no one has a majority when they vote the first time, then they vote again (and again) until someone has a majority. For Cruz’s delegate work to pay off, Trump has to not win a majority of the delegates in the primaries and caucuses. If he does not, then Cruz is going to look smart for preparing and Trump’s lack of planning will show.
All nominated Republican Presidential candidates have won a majority of the delegates, some just not on the first ballot. Dole, McCain and Romney all won enough delegates to be nominated on the first ballot because enough people voted for them in the primaries and caucuses.
So far, Trump has won the most, but not a majority, of delegates. It is on him to win enough delegates in the remaining contests to get to a majority. Otherwise, there are no guarantees, just like previous 40 Republican Conventions.
I believe what is being implied is the comparative lack of ground game apparatus in place for Team Trump as compared to what is in place for Cruz.
What Trump has, Cruz can never bottle, however.
“What Trump has, Cruz can never bottle, however.”
Actually it has already been bottled. Ted just doesn’t need Lhaso Apso hair tamer. 😉
…or Lady Clairol hair lightener and toner.
The ‘Truth’, and it seems to hurt a lot of so called Americans nowadays . Kudos !!
Cruz is NOT manipulating the rules or stealing delegates.
If you’re upset, be upset with how the rules are written. As for the GOPe, the rule requiring a nominee to have won the majority in 8 states – was put in place due to Rand Paul.
Now is being used against Kasich as Trump and Cruz won’t rewrite the rule.
Now if Trump was doing what Cruz was doing, all his supporters would be saying how brilliant he is. What a “business” man who knows how to make deals (i.e., the fine print), etc.
The rule is 1237. After first vote, you can vote for who you like. I’d rather have Cruz, Trump, etc., trying to get delegates for themselves on the second ballot than the GOPe promising things to other candidates so their “delegates” never had an opportunity to vote for someone else and then back room deal happens and said candidate X now instructs his delegates to vote for candidate A. At least Cruz is doing the work one delegate at a time at the state level. AKA, grass-roots.
No, Cruz is not manipulating the rules. These are the rules, and they’re not invented just to stop Trump. They’re very old rules. Reagan was making the same moves behind the scenes, making the same deals with delegates, when he was contesting the 1976 GOP convention. And so was Ford.
I hate to burst anyone’s bubble about Reagan.
For instance, you know what’s entirely within the rules? Offering to pay for a delegates travel and lodging in exchange for becoming a double agent. Most people don’t know delegates have to pay their own way and a lot of them aren’t rich. Some of them are unemployed, even. Others work jobs that don’t pay that much. Travel expenses can be a big deal. Delegates will be flying to Ohio from as far as Guam. That’s not a cheap flight. And even if they’re not traveling that far, delegates don’t get to pick their hotels. State delegations are lodged together in hotels booked far in advance. If the RNC put you in the La Quinta Inn, meh. But if they put you at the Ritz Carlton now it’s tempting when someone offers to pay your bill in exchange for your vote.
I don’t know how it worked in Reagan’s day but these days it’s the candidate’s superpac that makes the offer and picks up the tab. But only if the delegate keeps the bargain and stays loyal on the second and subsequent votes.
The knowledge that they’ll otherwise have to pay their own bill keeps them loyal.
Illegal vote buying? No. A political party is a private entity. It would be illegal if we were talking about buying and selling votes to do government business but no one is breaking any laws as this is party business. As a matter of fact it would be legal for a delegate to sell a vote outright for cash but that doesn’t happen.
All this is fair game. It always has been. And try to get this through your heads; we’re not talking “GOPe,” whatever all you people who never knew about how contested elections work imagine that to be. It’s the candidates, and their superpacs these days, who make the deals with the delegates.
It’s not Cruz’s fault Trump, as with the nuclear triad and high school civics, either never heard about the rules or didn’t think it was important for him to know.
You know what isn’t fair game? Trump throwing a tantrum and threatening lawsuits. On what grounds? It’s going to be laughed out of court but what it boils down to is the other candidates, especially Cruz, did their homework and Trump couldn’t be bothered. That’s what passes for “cheating” and “lying” in spoiled brat Trump’s thumb-sucking universe.
And let’s not forget that Trump’s cultists are threatening a campaign of intimidation and actual violence if the other candidates “steal” their cult leader “Trump’s” nomination. “Days of rage,” riots.
Well it’s not his, Trumptard crybabies. And what Cruz and no doubt Kasich and possibly even Rubio since he didn’t release his delegates are doing isn’t stealing. It’s not even a crime. It’s how the rules work.
What you Trumptards are threatening are crimes. I have complete confidence many of you will be stupid enough to try it. I won’t be shedding any tears when you’re hauled off to jail after getting out of the hospital.
The only way that Hillary beats Cruz is if Trump actually does go third party. Cruz will smoke Hillary, pretty much anybody could at this point. Frankly I think Bernie would be a bigger challange.
“Cruz’s use of Louisiana selection rules netted him more delegates than Trump even though Trump won the popular vote. Trump threatened suit, but as of this writing has not done so.”
What grounds does Trump have to sue? I can see it now:
“Like the nuclear triad, I have no idea what the delegate selection rules are. Lyin’ Ted ‘cheated’ by knowing the rules. And that’s not fair to the Donald who can’t be bothered to learn stuff.”
Yeah, no kidding this moron hasn’t filed any lawsuits. I’m still waiting for the Iowa lawsuit.
Trump’s lawyers must have to sit the old gasbag down a lot and tell him that he can call Cruz a fraud all he wants on Twitter. But “beating ‘the Donald’ by knowing the rules” is not even close to fraud under the law.
Keep waiting . He needs to do nothing by your time table . He built a empire . I think maybe know more than you. Well you simply hate him which is ok by me . With the whole world against him now don’t worry. He no longer has a chance . Was winning honestly and then dirty deeds by GOPe took over !! enjoy the ride .
Please look up the number of times Trump has threatened a lawsuit versus actually filing one.
It was all rhetoric that people fell for. He had no standing to even sue over it. They are following the rules.
You Trumpsters are really in love, aren’t you? It’s kind of embarrassing to witness even from a distance. Speaking of embarrassing that’s the kind of President that Trump would be. I don’t hate the guy. I think he’s a clown, a buffoon. Why do I think that? Because he is. Did you see his campaign statement after he lost WI to Cruz? It was unhinged. The guy blew a freaking gasket.
I realize you Trumpsters all share the same dream. Someday you’ll meet The Donald on the campaign trail, you’ll hit it off, and he’ll invite you up to his hotel suite to go skinny dipping in the hot tub. Just because I don’t feel the same way about him doesn’t mean I hate him. So he’s all yours.
Oh, and by the way. He didn’t build that “empire.” He inherited it from daddy Trump.
We should totally elect Cruz.
He can’t hit 33% nationally in a three person race!
He’s buying favors from party officials!
He wants the party to ignore the voters, because he’s losing by 2 million votes’
Those establishment delegates who are screwing Trump are totally not going to turn around and screw Cruz!
The Establishment totally has credibility right now, this is the year they should totally overthrow elections and put in their own guy!
Party rules say that you need 1237 to win the nomination.
They also say that for most delegates, they’re only committed for the 1st ballot.
It might be true that Cruz hasn’t gotten 1/3 of the votes.
It’s also true that Trump hasn’t gotten 2/5 of the votes.
Neither has a majority yet. If it stays that way, it goes to the convention. Them’s the rules.
Oh, almost forgot.
Many states have runoff elections, both in primaries, and the general election, when no candidate achieves a majority in the original election.
In lieu of this, we have the contested convention here.
Professor, the problem with your analysis:
If Trump’s delegates are GOP hacks with no loyalty to Trump, then part 1 of the strategy (where the delegates listen to Trump) never happens.
I’ll let you in on a little secret, rotten.
Cruz has already thought of that. That his “double agent” delegates might turn “triple agent.” Unlike Trump, he thought about that looong before he got into the race.
It may be true nobody in the Senate likes Cruz, and maybe nobody at the RNC. But a lot of people outside DC like Cruz.
I think you’re wrong.
They use Cruz to dump Trump, then drop the hammer on Cruz.
The hammer exists.
Let me hazard a guess ……
You also believe the claims of Anita Hill are true and thus, Justice Thomas should not be on the Supreme Court.
I will take them your concerns seriously when I finally see some real evidence.
He’s trying to preclude the delegates at the convention from voting for anyone but Trump and Cruz, and the voters before them, too. (If that’s really what Rule 40b of 2012 means)
Cruz might be counting on Trump also wanting to enact Rule 40b. If so, it might carry on the convention floor.
So “Looking Good Losing” Cruz doesn’t want the GOPe to mess with the delegates, but he wants to mess with the the delegates himself. This just outs his basic slimy nature that supporters here tried so hard to hide when he is found to be doing his Jimmy Swaggart act, “voting violations”,”Ben Carson is dropping out”, “Rubio is dropping out”, FEC violations etc.
Too bad his supporters can’t keep his inner ambulance chaser hidden. Unfortunately for them Loser Cruz is a bad ambulance chaser. As his record at the SCOTUS and the Senate shows his main talent is looking good losing.
He thinks he can game the system better then the GOPe pros can. He thinks his delegates will remain loyal when the GOPe bigwig comes along and says “you like your job at the congressmans field office?”. “you like your ward commiteeman position” … > He and the Black Knights riding the White Horse are mistaken.
Cruz has little chance himself of getting to 1237 prior to the convention, Well a Cruz supporter admits it.
A vote for Cruz is a vote for Paul Ryan.
Ted’s decision to work with the House to try to stop implementation of Obamacare in October 2013 was great. He could have won that fight, I don’t care what he thinks or anyone else does about it. That could have been won.
My problem is that Americans have figured out that illegal aliens, including visa overstayers and muslims, are VERY BIG problems, and Cruz doesn’t get it. He’s a late and unconvincing convert.
My other problem with him is that Trump understands business, really gets it. Cruz does not have that background and does not think that way. It’s all great that he’s learned the rules of politics and Robert’s Rules of Order, and wants to rustle delegates, but he doesn’t seem to understand what we need to get the China trade imbalance corrected, and to stop corporate inversions. Trump knows these people, understands their problems, because he’s had to deal with the same issues.
We have a serious money problem, and Trump is serious about money.
Forgive me, but could you get any dumber? Trump good with money?
He claims he’s going to cut the $17 trillion debt in half in eight years, while also cutting taxes, while also promising not to touch entitlements whatsoever, and he’ll raise the defense budget.
Scale this down to a household budget and it’s the equivalent of saying he’s going to cut a $17,000 credit card debt in half in eight days without lowering credit card spending while also lowering income and spending more on groceries.
We can’t dumb stuff down any lower, but still y’all just don’t get it. Trump is full of shit. If he thinks you want something, he simply promises it to you and you lap it up like cheap gelato.
Trump is great with money.
The Trump Organization is debt free and his campaign operation has been run on a shoestring compared to Cruz/Bernie/Jeb/Hillary/Rubio.
He’s got credibility when he says he’ll cut waste because he’s cut out the waste on the campaign trail.
Trump listed a minimum of $265 million in debt when he filed papers with the Federal Election Commission. The Trump Organization (and probably any other big business) is not debt free.
Yea, he is great with cash, I mean anyone with 5 bankruptcies must be good with cash to not be broke now.
Feel free to call me Dumber too . Money . What do you know a bout money ? Nothing i would guess from the 20 Trillion dollar debt .
Trump’s worth 10 Billion and you ? I would guess you like me , comfortable . But the fed will end up taking it all with the worthless dollars they print .
I like being Dumb . Put me in a very good choice of people imo.
Being “worth” 10B means nothing. Notice he does not say “net worth.”
There is a difference. That being – debt.
Plus, what “worth” is he talking about? Read somewhere, it states Trump has gotten 1-2B of “free” network time. That’s BS. If that’s true, then the media didn’t run commercials but instead aired Trump. That would really be how you would calculate “worth” 1-2B of air time. Did Trump get this money? Not, because it does not exist because there’s no transaction to point to.
“Trump knows these people, understands their problems, because he’s had to deal with the same issues.”
Sorry to be blunt, but everything you said above is consummate bullshit.
T-rump had businesses that were like owning a freakin’ mint, and he lost them.
Others, he paid WILDLY too much for. I seriously doubt he could tell you what an “inversion” really is, and why its done, BUT he DOES understand “these people” well enough to think he has the right to order them to do what he wants.
Which is BOTH economically TERRIBLE and immoral.
He’s a business and economics moron, but he does have a talent for hucksterism and branding.
And how much are you worth, Rags?
Oh, hell, there are rappers who could buy and sell Der Donald!
Is that really how you measure the worth of a person? Or even their business acumen? Or their knowledge of economics?
Please, don’t go ad hominem on me! You can’t deal with the points, just say so!
He paints signs for a living and screams at people in the street. So to answer your question, not much. But he gets to use a computer at the library, so he screams unhinged vulgarities on the internet and pretends they’re “arguments”.
It’s the life of a homeless person, but it’s his.
BTW, if you’re referring his casinos being a “mint,” are you aware he had three men running them that died in a helicopter accident? Talented men are hard to replace, much less 3.
More bullshit. T-rump lied, cheated, and leveraged his way into his OVEREXTENDED Jersey properties.
Then he rode the bankruptcy process dirty. I’m surprised he didn’t go to prison over some of that crap.
I wonder what the “key-man” insurance was on the guys T-rump lost? I bet it was enough to cover the search for their replacements and any loses during that time. Please, honey, I don’t have the MBA for nothing.
Your name calling is as mature as that of the candidate you support. At least Cruz has a plan to address the issues. Trump has several conflicting ideas on each issue, depending on what day (or hour) it is. That is if he has any understanding of the issue at all (see nuclear triad, judges signing bills, etc.) He took five different stances on abortion in just a few days.
His idea of letting our “allies” get nukes to defend themselves is insane. One only has to remember that, at one time, Iran was one of our allies. Since today’s allies can become tomorrow’s enemies, his stance is dangerous and shows a complete lack of understanding.
Trump says he will bring jobs back to the U.S. by “great negotiations.” Except when he imposes tariffs on Chinese (or Mexican) goods they will just cost more for American consumers. And, why would those companies move back to the U.S. when there are another 100 nations they could produce more cheaply in? I suppose we could not trade with the world but, in the past, that has not worked so well (see Great Depression). The real answer is to make American companies more competitive in the world.
A “big, beautiful wall” will not address a majority of our illegal alien problem, since most illegals do not come into the country illegally. Deporting all of them, and then letting most back in, is a waste of money and does not solve the problem of cheap labor.
Trump has no real answers because he understands none of the problems. But he knows how to market things, which is all his campaign is, marketing himself.
Illegal aliens, building the wall won’t work? Well, I see how out of touch with reality you are.
As far as visa-overstayers, it’s called, backing up I.C.E. and the border patrol so they can do their jobs and enforce the law for a change.
As far as tariffs, you seem unaware that until the disgusting income tax, which brought the lois lerners of the world into our orbit, the federal government was funded primarily by tariffs. And America grew by leaps and bounds. perhaps you have heard of the 19th century? Other countries will build things here, because they want to SELL things here. We have the biggest market on earth – that is, until we make ourselves totally impoverished, like say, El Salvador.
This is something Trump knows, that you clearly do not. I would rather pay tariffs than have Lois Lerners bullying Americans and rigging our elections by making it possible for democrats but not tea partiers, to have tax free money for their efforts.
“…the federal government was funded primarily by tariffs…”
The Federal government, prior to the income tax, was funded primary by taxes on alcohol.
This is WHY, with Prohibition, came the income tax.
Do you remember when Cruz was able to tell Trump what Trump’s plan was, when Trump couldn’t? It was in a debate. Trump doesn’t know what his plan is.
Eight years ago there was manipulation and a mania. Doubt there will be a similar mania for Cruz.
If the guy can’t win except by machinations behind the scenes, does that portend a popular candidate or one that is truly worthy?
Behold the Trump supporter who believes in ends justifying means when it’s Trump, but when someone beats Trump by simply playing by the rules, omg, that’s cheating.
What are you talking about? If you do not understand, ASK!
I said NOTHING about Trump.
I said that Obama had a mania and Cruz will not. So the comparison is inapt.
I also said that if you can’t win without nontransparent manipulation of the process, instead of votes, than maybe you don’t deserve it.
The rules are perfectly transparent. They just require one read and understand them. Cruz learned lessons from past elections and is utilizing them brilliantly. It’s not dirty pool.
Well of course the rules are transparent. Except that they have yet to be decided. Remember Ron Paul 2012?
The rules are decided by the delegates. If Trump delegates are Cruz supporters do you think that will go over well?
What is not well understood is the progression.
Tea Party – euchred, budgets increase
Trump – ????
And if not Trump – ????
Be careful what you wish for.
No, that’s not true. The dirty little secret about those so-called “rules” is the part everyone who obviously hates Trump is self-deceiving about. That dirty little secret is the blatant and deliberate attempt to keep Trump SUPPORTERS from going to the National Convention, not only to cast their vote on the 1st ballot, but on any further balloting.
That’s right, you’re all hiding that Dirty Little Secret in the sanctimonious, righteous indignation that people aren’t on the GOP-E train to be manipulated.
This primary has been very enlightening. I’m wondering what you’ll all say when someone who hasn’t even been in the primaries is the nominee. Everyone will just sagely nod their heads and say, oh yes, we can live with this guy being the nominee…About the way the GOP-E does business, but not with integrity or honesty. Funny that, thought it was only the Dems who we thought had negatives like that.
I’m not going to vote to continue the Mitch McConnell, Paul Ryan wing of the party. At this point, it will be just intellectually interesting to see what rise from the ashes.
But isn’t this really transparent manipulation? And why isn’t Trump doing the same thing?
The fact is, stuff like this goes on all the time. If Trump was doing it, people would say he knows business, reads the fine print, can make a deal, etc.
Now that Cruz is doing it, not so much, eh?
Ah, now we’re quoting Machiavelli. I just posted a comment above, and attributed that same particular philosophy to the Republican Establishment, and Cruz, whether he is with them or not. Manipulating the delegate selection in a state to shut out the supporters of the actual winner of the states’ primaries isn’t about rules, fairness, ethics, honesty or integrity. But it is about shutting down the people.
Following you logic to conclusion, the first ballot at the convention would match the last ballot at the convention. Everyone who supports candidate A, would ALWAYS support candidate A, and those for B, and those for C, etc.
Or, side deals are done with the GOPe, so candidate D says to his supporters, vote for candidate A (because of a back room deal).
I’ll take the nominee who is playing the long game one on one with each delegate, than a candidate who tells his supporters to vote for another candidate – in all likely hood, because of a side deal for him/herself.
Good point, and you’re right, hadn’t thought about it, and we’d have to reach a final decision eventually.
OTOH, it’s not right if one side is shut out on its supporters actually going to convention, and that’s the moves the Republican Establishment machine is making – seeing that Trump supporters are not in the delegations chosen to go to the National Convention.
People who won the poker chips in the primaries should be able to bring them to the table at the next level of play.
Yes, but a lot of the double agent Cruz delegates, at least in Arizona, are really for Kasich or Rubio.
I suppose Rubio wants to keep his delegates so he can trade them for employment. He’s out of the Senate soon, and lost this race…..
I hate to burst your bubble but you do realize that the entire TX delegation will be going to Cruz on the second ballot. There are no Rubio/Kasich sympathizers in the bunch.
I still have to figure out the delusion of Kasich. He advances his campaign because the “polls” show him beating Hillary. Yet, he says he does not poll well in the primaries because the people don’t know him.
I just watched the Cruz town hall with Kelly and I know more about Cruz and what he stands for and how he will get the things done that he’s talked about in one hour than five months of Trump’s bs. Not one “Wonderful” or “Huge” or “Great”. What a relief it is to actually have a candidate talk about his vision for America instead talking about how far ahead he is in the polls or what scumbags his opponents are. I’m sorry to say it but the Trump supporters don’t seem to mind that they never hear anything concrete or solid about Trump’s plans. Yuuuge and grrreat is about all they get but they seem happy with that.
Trump’s been specific about his goals. Knowing goals is better than knowing plans sometimes.
Funny- that’s exactly what Glenn Beck said today. Guess he nailed it.
When? If you do not have a plan to achieve your goals then they are just platitudes. I am sure if Trump sets business goals he surely has a plan to achieve them. Plans tell you if the goals are realistic. Like Trumps statement that he would eliminate the National Debt in 8 years, the specifics of a plan to do so are crucial. You will not see a plan for this because, unfortunately, it is impossible to do if you also want to lower taxes, not touch entitlements and spend more for the military.
Plans separate fantasy from reality.
Sorry, I accidentally down-thumbed you.
A lot of T-rumpian “goals” involve stuff you cannot legally or rationally do.
One reason he does not like going beyond the “goals” level is that the whole deal becomes a LOT more ugly when you get into implementation-level stuff.
“You can’t get there from here” has a lot of application.
What’s your goal?
I’m gonna time travel to 1776 Philadelphia!
What’s your plan to do that?
I do not think this word means what you think it means.
“Make America Great Again” is no more specific than “Hope and Change”.
One without the other, they’re both useless.
Did you see Cruz at the “Kill The Gays” rally? His father was a speaker there. Watch the video:
Why do you have to lie? Yeah, I saw the video. And it wasn’t a “kill the gays rally.”
It was a “I don’t care what limits the left places on the First Amendment, I’ll read the entire Bible including parts of the Old Testament leftists don’t like” rally.
Your lies just make you look stupid because when you watch the video, if your not already a twisted leftist, they’re 180 degrees out from reality.
In fact, you’re proving the guy’s point by lying about him. The fact that you’re smearing him is exhibit A that if you could you would shut him up and curtail his free exercise of religion for preaching those parts of the Bible you don’t like.
Of course. You know a LOT about Cruz from watching the tube. But let me give you a little help. Search ” Ted Cruz dominionist ” – Just in case you were wondering.
Since he declared, I’ve read 2 of Trump’s books. His 2011 book, “Time to Get Tough”, hardcover edition, Ch. 9 entitled “It’s Called Illegal Immigration for a Reason,” pp. 135-152, he discusses illegal immigration at length. He discusses anchor babies, cheap labor, the costs of social welfare for illegal aliens, etc.
Read his books.
Other chapters in this book are:
1. Get Tough
2. Take the Oil
3. Tax China to Save American Jobs
4. It’s your Money – you should keep more of it
5. A Government we can afford
6. Strengthen American Muscle
7. A Safety Net, Not a Hammock
8. Repeal Obamacare
9. It’s called Illegal Immigration for A Reason
10. The America Our Children Deserve
Afterword: The Press and the Presidency.
Sorry so many here are too lazy to read. It’s cheap on Amazon. I purchase at smile.Amazon.com to help MaleSurvivor.Org.
I’ve read Trump’s books. They are comically inept, unwittingly revealing deep ignorance of just about everything.
…AND that’s often WITH a co-author or ghost-writer…!!!
trumps web site does explain thing clearly. Etc etc !!
You left out Strategy #3 – Destroy the Republican Party.
There is a “No Trump – No Vote” movement on. They are sending post cards to DC.
It is conceivable if Trump endorsed the Libertarian Party that they might win a few States. That would make 2020 a very different election. The Republicans destroyed the Whigs. We may be at another such turning.
Uh. This election is not about Trump. His flaws don’t matter. It is about the oligarchy. And there is a chance he is not one of them. The proof is that they are ganging up on him.
Of course Trump may be a ruse. If that is the case the odds of a civil war go way up.
Umm K. Let’s take a look see here. Most of the Trumpsters are complaining the system is corrupt. And, Trump brags about using his money to corrupt it so it caters to him and not the voters. He brags about being a special interest with politicians in his pocket so that, if he wants one of the little people’s houses for a limo parking lot for one of his casinos or just to destroy it so it doesn’t ruin the view from one of his golf courses, his politicians seize the house for him.
He brags about how well he gets along with Pelosi, Reid, and apparently he’s really tight with with Schumer. He socializes with the Clintons; in fact, they attend his wedding. When he was thinking about getting into the race, first he calls Billy Jeff to chat about it.
And you think maybe he’s not part of the oligarchy.
Riiiight. Got it.
This is by far one of the better analysis I’ve read – appreciate it. One other point – if Trump’s voters are disproportionally Democrats, as some say, then he won’t stand a chance on a second ballot unless he somehow makes the case to delegates that he has crossover appeal yet is still a solid Republican. And although I think Trump very may likely have more crossover appeal than Cruz, he has yet to make that case.
And even worse for Trump, some of those delegates may have long memories and may not appreciate his attacks on other candidates. Despite all of the online acrimony you see, most Republicans have a lot of respect for other Republican governors, senators, candidates, etc and didn’t particularly appreciate Trump’s going out of his way to steamroll someone with less coverage due to a sense that he hasn’t earned the right to criticize other Republicans to that degree. So I think a second ballot potentially looks very bad for Trump.
excellent points …
get belted in … it is gonna be
a wild ride …. 😀
You should look up the ” No Trump No Vote ” movement. I think a lot of Trump voters will not vote R on down ballot races if Trump is denied the nomination. Many of them have promised to vote straight D.
Think of a Congress with 2/3rds majority Democrats.
The alternative is D. Trump – Republican nominee.
Just how bad do the Republicans want to self destruct?
Honestly, go ahead.
I have a sneaking suspicion this is a lot of sound and fury signifying nothing. Folks like Michael Barone, who is one of the better political analysts, has gone over the numbers and has found the claim of 1st time voters going with Trump to be quite the exaggeration.
Last I checked, Trump also has a big problem with women. If the polls are to be believed, Trump’s negatives are between 67%-73%.
BTW, I have an aversion to people who try to threaten me to get their way. If you have to threaten folks, you probably do not have much of a movement.
FTR, I feel the same about the #NeverTrump movement.
why worry about the oligarchy when we have fascists like you to destroy the country?
THIS IS RIDICULOUS. I heard NO COMPLAINTS about how Romney mowed down Gingrich and Santorum.
Romney, the milquetoast, who couldn’t criticize O., but didn’t hesitate to use millions, tens of millions, to mow down good Republicans who HADN’T implemented socialized medical care.
But you see, that’s the point that should be made, and they’re not all democrats who are voting for Trump. Quite a few are folks who long ago gave up voting. Trump does pull in voters who will not be there in November if he is cheated, and let me emphasize cheated, out of the nomination. It’s human nature to say enough, is enough.
The turnout in this primary is of historical note. And it isn’t made up of Dems trying to mess with our process. No, the only people trying to mess with the process are those good old boys doing exactly what they did in 2008 and 2014.
Triple Amen, sister.
Well, if these zombies who have come out of their graves for the hump gave up voting long ago but will go all stompy feet and stay in their caskets if they don’t get their circus barker for nominee, then we don’t need them because we’ve gotten elected all along without them.
Or maybe we can do like the ‘rats do and get their names so we can vote FOR them, they being so frail and sensitive and all. 🙂
You make good points, but I want to point out the reason why it’s going to be tough for Trump on the second ballot, if there is one, is because the State Party apparatchiks are interfering with the delegate selection process – meaning they are deliberately able to use the local district GOP-E machines to keep out Trump supporters as chosen delegates. It’s happening where I live, and across the country.
Supporting your guy disenfranchising the voters works nicely – perhaps, for awhile, but eventually it works against you. Unfortunately, the people who point this out get beat up around here for not being a Trump hater.
It’s not disenfranchising the voters. The voters had their chance; if they couldn’t put their guy across the finish line then it’s out of their hands.
And, no, it doesn’t matter who gets closest to the finish line. If your candidate doesn’t cross it, your candidate doesn’t win. For some reason the Trumpsters think that’s some special rule the GOP just made up because Trump is running this year.
Now it goes to a contested convention. We’ve had those for almost two hundred years. Because, let me repeat myself, it doesn’t matter who got the most votes among all the other candidates who also didn’t get enough to win outright. “Most votes” means nothing and never has. There’s only enough or not enough. If nobody got enough it’s now a level playing field again. It always has been since Lincoln came from behind to beat the guy who came into the convention with by far the most votes on the third ballot in 1860. So quit stomping your feet and crying, Trump fans, this is not a new rule, and your boy is no Lincoln that we should change it for him. If Trump doesn’t have enough than he needs to horsetrade for Delegates. It’s not Cruz’s fault if Trump, and you frankly, can’t figure out how this work. And one of Trump’s problems, from the many I could pick from, is that he didn’t know he should have started laying the groundwork to “disenfranchise voters” last year.
Look at it this way, Lady Penguin; Cruz is doing the Trumpsters a favor. They’re sold on Trump because he’s supposed to be tough, a hard-nosed businessman, and great deal maker.
He’s not tough if he can’t play hard ball. And if Cruz makes deals with delegates so they’ll vote him instead of Trump after they’re unbound (or even on the first vote if they’re unbound from the start from states Trump won) then Trump isn’t the deal maker he claimed to be, is he?
If Trump isn’t willing to do his homework and put in the work then Trump fans should be angry at Trump. Not Cruz.
“Hmmm, number three, from the New York Times:
When Mr. Priebus explained that each campaign needed to be prepared to fight for delegates at each state’s convention, Mr. Trump turned to his aides and suggested that they had not been doing what they needed to do, the people briefed on the meeting said.”
Read more at: http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/433683/how-much-faith-does-donald-trump-have-his-team
If Trump had bothered to read “Primary Elections for Dummies,” Lady Penguin, your misplaced and baseless concerns about “disenfranchising the voters” would never have crossed your mind. Trump has simply dropped the ball.
Ask Trump if he’s a hypocrite for having his Trump brand of clothing made in Mexico while he blasts companies like Ford for moving manufacturing to Mexico, or saying he’ll build a wall to keep illegal aliens out and bringing jobs back while taking maximum advantage of the H1B visa program so he can bring in foreign workers instead of hiring American workers and he’ll say those are the rules. And he has to play by the rules.
Well, Cruz is playing by the rules. It took Priebus to sit Trump down a week or so back and loudly and slowly explain in very short words what the rules are. Every candidate has to fight for delegates at each state (and Congressional District) convention.
It’s Trump’s fault his campaign hasn’t been “doing what they needed to do.” Not Cruz’s fault. Not Kasich’s fault. Trump’s fault. And he knows it.
So if you’re feeling “disenfranchised,” assuming you’re a Trump supporter, blame your candidate if the delegate (not the candidate since you didn’t vote for a candidate) is actually a Cruz supporter. Because Trump didn’t bother to learn what he was supposed to do.
Two stories out this morning that tell how ANTI-freedom and ANTI-Constitution Der Donald really is…
This is the problem that the GOP now faces. Their chickens have come home to roost.
For decades the party leadership has preached that they are representatives of the will of the rank-and-file membership of the party. They draft their platforms with that in mind. But, they care nothing for the wishes and desires of the rank-and-file. They ignore their party platform and act contrary to the will of their constituents. They make byzantine rules to protect their own power and position. The policies of GOP-backed elected officials cost the ordinary Republican money and security. Yet, the leadership, and their elected politicians, get richer and more secure in their positions.
Well, the rank-and-file Republican has had enough. The Trump campaign is a “Network” moment. The rank-and-file is “mad as hell” and they are not going to take it anymore. Even with the GOP primaries slanted so heavily to create an open convention, in which the GOP leadership could still arbitrarily disqualify candidates that they did not like, Trump still has a good chance of gaining the minimum number of delegates to win nomination, BEFORE the convention. With a starting field of 17 major candidates, in a GOP Presidential primary is simply unheard of. The open attempts, by the party leadership, to derail the campaign of a leading candidate is also unheard of. But, in spite of those things, the Trump campaign continues to enjoy overwhelming support from the rank-an-file.
So, now the GOP leadership is faced with the prospect of having to openly sabotage the leading vote getter at the convention, in order to achi9eve their goals. Should this happen, it is likely that they will keep their positions, along with their benefits and perks. But, they will lose control of the federal government, and possibly state governments, as well, because the rank-and-file voter, justifiably feeling betrayed, simply does not go to the polls. And this at a time when the nation can ill afford to be governed by the Democrat party or either of its candidates for President.
You call something like 38%, and more strongly against him than for him, “overwhelming?”
Thank you, Mac45.
I have friends who quit voting the last 2 times around, after they went to conventions. They said they weren’t going to enable the fraud anymore.
There’s nobody in the rank and file arguing on behalf of the GOP powers. The argument is over which candidate is best for the rank and file. Some of us want a proven constitutional conservative, others want an orange carnival barker who cannot win.
Rather than bite off my nose to spite my face, I’ll go with the proven constitutional conservative who, I might add, has 20 times the brain wattage as the orange carnival barker, sees the reality of the world today, and can actually enunciate a fully-developed idea or observation using proper English grammar with a vocabulary consisting of more than repetition of trite nothing burgers such as “believe me”, “yuge”, “terrific” and “everybody loves me!”
There are actually two Rules Committees.
The first is the Republican National Committee’s Standing Rules Committee, which has 56 members (1 from each local Republican Party?) and meets three times each year between conventions.
THey will not adopt the special rules of 2012, which may have limited for whom delegates could vote for. The memers are all chosen already – Cuz will not be able to et his partisans on to it.
Then we have the convention-specific rules committee, with twice the members, consisting of one man and one woman from each state or territory [56 x2 = 112]
(The Democrats have 57 delegations, because they have an additional one for “Democrats Abroad. That’s where Obama got his number of 57 in 2008. All the places on the quarters from 1999 through 2009 – there were six quarters in 2009 – plus Democrats Abroad)
There may very well be a majority and minority report, or maybe even more than two proposed packages of rules.
The rules will then have to be adopted by a majority vote of the 2,472 delegates attending the convention.
Cruz may try to make a rule that says, in effect that nobody except the two leading contenders can get the nomination. (If the rule is somebody has to be nominated by a majority of at least 8 delegations, which he’ll have)
Let’s say it goes like this:
Trump may want a rule that the person with a plurality of delegates on the first ballot wins the nomination.
The Trump rule will lose, and then the Cruz rule (top two only) will be up for a vote. C
ruz is hoping all the people really for Cruz will vote for it AND that Trump will bite, and endorse it too.
That will be the key vote of the convention.
It is possible actually that all proposed rules (including ones like previous pre-2012 conventions) will lose on the floor.
If all proposed rules lose, I don’t know where they go from there.
The Chairman of the Convention, who is the Speaker of the House, or the Republican leader in the House, will have to rule maybe as to what to do then.
It is also possible that any rule precluding delegates from voting for anyone will be ruled against – but an appeal can be made from the chair.
The T-rumpian vision is for a higher tax, lower freedom, BIGGER GOVERNMENT America.
He can kiss my ass.
Levin’s kid is employed by Cruz. Levin is not a credible source of info. Naturally biased and non credible info is Rags specialty.
Ronald Reagan used a 45% tariff to save the usa jobs at Harley Davidson from Japanese abuse of trade agreements.. Ronald Reagan you see was smart enough not to be a stupid trade deal purist like you, Levin and Cruz.
Ronald Reagan would never support horrible stupid trade deals like Cruz who supports TPP/Obamatrade.
Levin and his accolytes are economic morons blinded by tgeir faith in 30 years of stupid job killing unfair trade deals. So blind tgey can’t understand that the USA has the leverage and China Japan Mexico etc can not afford to lose access to USA markets and as soon as they realize that loss is imminent and/or threatening to become permanent they will cave and renegotiate their trade deals with us at which point tariffs become unnecessary.
If Reagan were alive he would look at results of last 30 years and realize Levin and Cruz and the purists are just globalist morons
Yeah, no, Collectivist puke.
What really happened was that the unions…big favorites of T-rump and vise versa…and the Deemocrats got to Reagan.
Harley had…like its cousins in Detroit…run its product and its business into the ground, being fat, happy, and stupid. It was producing crap.
The Japanese were lean, mean, and cutting-edge. They were producing bikes that Americans LOVED and could afford, and would RUN.
Like in biology, you don’t do dinosaurs any favors by just protecting them from their more fit competitors. Eventually, they either adapt or they die.
Harley DID adapt…eventually. They began producing MUCH better products, but ONLY via the magic of the markets that FORCED them to adapt.
Just like Detroit…kinda.
The dregs of American iron…cars or bikes…was during that era. The pressure of imports changed that, and gave Americans MUCH better cars, trucks and bikes.
You moronic liar.
Ok I got it. Ragspierre says Ronald Reagan was unprincipled fool who sold out to democrats and unions and if Ronald Reagan had only had Rags, Levin, and Cruz to tell him what to do then Reagan could follow tge purists path and let Harley Davidson be put out of business along with all those manufacturing. It is a shame iguess that Reagan was such a collectivist puke putting 45% tarriffs out to save usa jobs.
I’m glad we have Ragspierre here to set us straight about history and that crony capitalist sellout Ronald Reagan.
Well, that post sure sealed the del. YOU are indeed a leftist and, thus, a troll in terms of this site.
If the Trump package of rules wins, which it won’t, unless everybody not for Cruz votes for it, Cruz may walk out. Trump will get the nomination, and the nomination will be rejected by many state Republican parties, who will name their own candidate or hold their own convention.
If the Cruz package of rules wins, mainstream Republicans may walk out.
If the standard package of rules wins, Trump may walk out.
New poll conducted by SurveyUSA on behalf of four California television stations and released Monday shows Donald Trump leads among likely Republican primary voters by eight points — and also leads among GOP women by seven points
Trump has 40% support, followed by Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)
at 32% and Ohio Governor John Kasich at 17%. The survey also showed former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton ahead of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT)
, 53% to 39%.
Female likely Republican voters favored Trump by 38% to 31% over Cruz,
In other words, Cruz has made major inroads in CA. The gap was much wider a month ago. It could become a repeat of what we’re seeing in WI thus far.
Trump supporters sure seem like a faithless lot, already lining up excuses for a defeat he hasn’t yet suffered. He was cheated! The nomination was stolen from him! Those dastardly Republicans are stealing Trump’s nomination! They’re using the rules to do it! Ahhh! Ahhh! There’s not a butterfly in sight -they’ve all been captured by Trump supporters’ bellies.
Cheer up, bunkies. Trump could actually win in Wisconsin, you know. Wisconsin polls close at 9pm EDT.
Tick, tick, tick, tick…..
Why you think it be like dat?
Well, it would be hard to find the person who doesn’t acknowledge that virtually every aspect of American politics is tainted to some degree with corruption, bias, dirty tricks, fals flagging, etc. But polls? Nope. Political polls are held to be as pure as the driven snow, the only aspect of American politics not tainted by corruption, never faked or co-opted to favor this or that candidate, party, or agenda – especially if a poll shows my guy in the lead. Polls that show my guy not winning? Garbage, outlier, fixed.
In the heart of our hearts we realize that the veracity of a given poll may only be determined after the fact – almost all of them are wrong to some degree, often to a huge degree. Polls were never proffered as a predictive device, only as an attempt to take a snapshot of things in a given moment of time. It is the media and the supporters of the various candidates who wrongly insist on seeing polls as predictive of outcomes. This is nonsense on its face since, as we ought to know, any predictive device that can only be scored after the fact is worthless.
So, supporters hope and pray and cling to useless poll results that show their candidate winning or close to it, knowing all the while it’s a fool’s game. The result? Some very nervous, anxious, and angry supporters. Chill out. It will be what it will be, and just like the basketball game last night, of which 90% of expert sports journalists believed UNC couldn’t lose, that ‘poll’ may be evaluated for accuracy only after the final buzzer.
“Faithless” that is rich. The GOPe is calling the shots, snaking delegates and lining up a run that will continue the slide of America.
I’ve made a couple of predictions and they came true. Here’s my last one. If Trump is robbed we’ll see three things happen. First, we’ll have an influx of illegals, maybe not on paper but in reality for sure. Second, we’ll see a mass defection from the GOP. It’ll be the Whigs round two. First the TEA party now this. The GOPe has proven they care nothing for their party’s base except for the noses they can count. Third, I hope this one is wrong, with the splitting of the GOP we’ll see a true nationalist come. And he won’t be warm and fuzzy like Trump.
“Robbed” connotes illegality. The GOP is following its own rules to get the nominee it wants, as it its right being a private entity. There’ll be consequences, of course, and they are also free to accept negative consequences, just as they are free to accept the positive ones.
There is already a mass defection from the GOP underway – only 24% or so of registered voters are GOP. The same is happening in the Democrat Party, who hold about 29% of registered voters. In both cases, the defections are from the respective party’s historical bases. Both parties are teetering on the edge of irrelevancy, but their repsective leaders don’t care as long as their positions are protected. It’s a slow motion revolution going unnoticed because the American public’s shutter speed is set too fast.
This, I believe, is a good thing, the two main parties earning the results of ignoring their bases. Each will adapt or die in political Darwinism.
I do not see this as opening a vaccuum into which some American Hitler will step. I have more, ahem, faith in Americans than that.
I pray you are correct ….
Robbed, faithless and lots of other terms fit the potential situation exactly. Before primaries and voting, party bosses selected delegates and they( the delegates) voted and often took several sets of votes to determine a nominee. Now, once the citizens vote for their nominee, the situation has changed. The person voted for should control the delegates. As the actual nominee no longer gets to select is delegates, but the party itself, the system is rigged.
The only person who should be allowed to change the votes of his selected delegates is the person who won the delegate. Anything else at all is anti-democratic, rigged, unfair and what ever adjectives one wants to throw up against it. We departed the party boss era decades ago. If Trump, Kasich, and Cruz want to make deals for their delegates, fine. Anyone else, anyone else at all, and the convention becomes a farce and will result in massive losses for R’s come November.
Exactly, and thank you for saying it so clearly and succinctly. It’s the point I’ve been trying to make, but the Trump animosity here is so great, the haters rather hate and be glad that they can steal the nomination by packing the convention with delegates who are not supporters of the candidates who actually won those delegates.
The GOP Establishment has essentially rigged the system so that the nominee will still be chosen in a back-room deal somewhere…which absolutely disenfranchises the primary voters.
Candidates who won the poker chips in the primaries should be able to bring them to the table for the next level of play.
Most of the commenters here are berating those of us who point out the ethics of the situation. As long as their guy wins, or takes out a candidate like Trump, it’s all fine with them. But the process is corrupt, and it keeps the party bosses in power. Power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely.
It’s the same old, same old, political system that everyone is justifying. That’s incredibly wrong and why we really can’t change Washington. Now all of this makes sense…
There is no Nomination being “Stolen”, you can’t steal what someone does not have, and last I checked Trump does not have the nomination and does not have it until he reaches 1237, if he goes into the convention with 1200 delegates he still doesn’t have the nomination. So quit lying and talking about a stolen nomination.
This is lunatic talk. Trump, Cruz, and presumably Kasich all want to win. None of them are going to deal their delegates away. The convention will open in Cleveland on July 18th, then close on the 21st after four days of deadlock. If you had your way.
That’s why we had sane people make the rules. Sane people, back in the 19th century. And we’ve been following those rules ever since.
It’s not so much that Trump built his (castle? really?) on sand as that he trusted his campaign staff to tell him about the rules and they failed and Teddy is undermining him.
Legal, yes, Moral or ethical? I don’t think so and neither will a lot of normal everyday nonlawyer people.
This is just the sort of trick and INSIDER would pull. An Establishment candidate if you will.
Teddy will try and do anything to get elected. And yet for him that’s a virtue but for Trump it’s a sin?
I pray my epitaph reads: I trusted to much and gave people the benefit of the doubt as to their morals and honesty.
Correct. And woe unto us who point out that lack of ethics involved in this corrupted process. It is disenfranchising the primary voters, and it makes clear that the politicians never ceded their power as they knew all along they would manipulate the delegates GOING to the convention. I see now that’s how they thought they’d get a Jeb or maybe even a Rubio in. They didn’t anticipate Trump’s strength and staying power, and they knew (and yes, I believe they don’t want Cruz – but now they may be stuck…)they could knock out Cruz.
I really like your remark:
“Teddy will try and do anything to get elected. And yet for him that’s a virtue but for Trump it’s a sin?”
The end justifies the means to these folks, and that’s not a very nice thing about people who tout that they’re conservatives.
The fact that you are just discovering how a contested convention works doesn’t mean the process is corrupt. Also, you really need to stop preening about your ethics. Because, no offense, but frankly I’m not convinced you are ethically superior to Abraham Lincoln or Ronald Reagan. Lincoln horsetraded his way into the White House in a contested election in 1860 while Reagan made a good showing but just fell short in 1976.
They played the game by the same rules as Cruz.
Just one correction.
“The end justifies the means to these folks, and that’s not a very nice thing about people who tout that they’re conservatives.”
No, you see, that would be Trump. He’ll try to win through threats and intimidation. Threats of lawsuits, threats of riots, threats of violent “days of rage.” Roger Stone, one of his supporters, is threatening to publicize the name, hotel, and room number of any of Cruz’s double agents who tries to help “steal” Trump’s coronation.
Cruz is not resorting to Trump’s illegal tactics. And by illegal I mean outside the bounds of both the GOP rules and outside the law. Cruz is operating within the rules. I know you’re surprised to discover what is within the rules. But Cruz is staying within bounds.
Trump never bothered to learn how to play the game.
You know who else would do anything to win? Abraham Linclon. Crua is doing nothing Lincoln didn’t do to win his contested election contested election.
Being willing to do what it takes to win came in pretty handy later in the Civil War, didn’t it?
Actually Lincoln played a lot dirtier than Cruz is. Lincoln’s campaign went so far as to print up counterfeit tickets. William Seward was the odds on favor who, like Trump, was a loud mouthed New Yorker who came into the convention with by far the most votes and the biggest national name recognition of all the candidates.
Seward, like many if not most candidates of the era, did not go to the convention. Instead what was functionally his campaign manager and a large contingent of supporters went in his stead. One day they decided to make a grand entrance. So they marched around Chicago behind a brass band arriving at the entrance to the convention hall right when the convention was supposed to start. Only to find the hall already packed, with the counterfeit ticket holders down in their front-and-center seats. So they had to sit way back in the bleachers.
Lincoln beat Seward, finally. When Seward found out about it via telegraph did his head explode like Trumps did tonight after Wisconsin. Did he start making fun of Abe’s wife? Did he start babbling about “lyin’ Lincoln?”
No, he said Lincoln had many of the qualities of a good President. Including, doing what it takes to win. Then Seward campaigned for Lincoln, and served in his cabinet as his Secretary of State (remember “Seward’s folly?”).
lol. Cruz follows the party rules and it makes him immoral and unethical. Had Trump done the same in reverse, you’d all be singing his praises for it.
It becomes clear what it takes to be a Trump supporter.
Hypocrisy and ignorance.
Trump ran his campaign with all of his cards and efforts in winning 1237 delegates on the first ballot. He probably didn’t even realize or think about the delegates until recently. I don’t think his ego would have allowed him to play the game the way Cruz has to this point either. In fact he probably still wouldn’t even glance in their direction if he was sure he could win enough delegates to get over the top. However the flip side of his ego is that if he is losing it is because someone is cheating.
Cruz has been looking for ways to maximize his support since early in the race and has basically run 2 campaigns. One campaign for voters and another for selecting delegates. This strategy doesn’t help him at all unless there is a contested convention. Basically Cruz will either look really smart if it works or like an idiot who should have focused where it really mattered.
Your post implies he cannot do both, when history shows that winners of open conventions are precisely those who did both.
Cruz doesn’t personally work the ground game for delegates, campaign employees do. The effort takes exactly nothing away from the crowd-pressing aspect of campaigning. In fact, doing both has contributed to Cruz’ closing a 20 pt gap in less than a month to draw even with Trump nationally by revealing Cruz is a professional who covers all bases and has a formidable national organization, while Trump is and does not, relying on force of a reality TV-style personality.
No one is mentioning why taking away the delegates from the person who won them is ethical, moral, or not a rigged system. They are just endlessly repeating it is the system. But the system is not in place.
What is in place in most states is that the candidate does not get to select his delegates–which would be the best system imho.
With a primary, the voters selected which candidate got the delegates, not just the first vote. Let the candidates themselves work it out at the convention. … Anything else is rigged, disenfranchises the voters and will result in large losses come November. If the process stinks too high, too many will not vote R in November regardless of the consequences. They won’t be able to hold their noses.
“No one is mentioning why taking away the delegates from the person who won them is ethical, moral, or not a rigged system.”
Because it isn’t, simple as that. You want to call them such because they don’t favor your candidate and show that he is in way over his head.
“But the system is not in place.”
Uhh, yes they are in place and have been. Contrary to what Trump implies there is no way for them to change the rules before the convention, those meetings happen after the nominee is chosen.
“With a primary, the voters selected which candidate got the delegates, not just the first vote.”
Actually that is exactly what I voted for and I knew that going in to cast my vote. Just because a voter is uninformed doesn’t mean something is corrupt.
“Let the candidates themselves work it out at the convention.”
Oh, yea like that would be fair to the voters. If that is gonna be the way its done then why have primaries at all?
“Anything else is rigged, disenfranchises the voters and will result in large losses come November.”
Only by those who think that Trump is pre-ordained to be the nominee. I have some bad news, Trump isn’t even 2/3 of the way to winning the nomination yet. So there is not “stealing” it from him.
“If the process stinks too high, too many will not vote R in November regardless of the consequences. They won’t be able to hold their noses.”
Ohh, I think if they can hold their noses and vote for McCain and Romney and if they don’t then what happens during the Hillary administration will be their fault directly, because they chose to be whiny titty babies, much like their chosen candidate.
I’m slightly amazed that people who have no idea how the primary process work are concluding it’s corrupt simply because it doesn’t work the way they imagined it should work.
“With a primary, the voters selected which candidate got the delegates, not just the first vote.”
No. You voted for the delegate. Some of those delegates aren’t even bound on the first vote to cast their ballots for the candidate who won their state. Some entire delegations are unbound; Guam has nine delegates and all are unbound. Pennsylvania is upcoming. They have 71 delegates, and 54 are unbound.
Unbound delegates can vote for whoever they want.
“Let the candidates themselves work it out at the convention.”
Yeah, right. How’s that supposed to work, especially with all the unbound delegates?
Here’s something else you clearly didn’t know. We’re talking about freakin’ state laws. It’s the state that decides wehn their delegates are unbound. Some states require their delegates to vote the candidate who won the state on all the ballots, like Alabama. Others are only bound for one ballot, others for two.
After. That. The. Candidates. Have. No. Say. Who. “Their.” Delegate. Votes. For.
Candidates can release their delegates earlier than the law requires. But it’s the states that has the final say. It’s up to the state when those delegates are unbound. Why? Because your notion about how it should work is unworkable. At some point in the convention, if it’s gridlocked, then somehow they have to break the gridlock. They do that by unbinding the candidates.
“… Anything else is rigged, disenfranchises the voters and will result in large losses come November.”
No, actually, anything else just can’t work in the real world. You’d just have round after round of voting over four days in Cleveland and everyone would leave at the same place the same place they started. If it were up to the candidates.
But the delegates don’t belong to the candidates. Really, they belong to the state that sent them.
“If the process stinks too high, too many will not vote R in November regardless of the consequences. They won’t be able to hold their noses.”
I realize this is all coming as a shock to you. It shouldn’t, but it is. Have you compared the GOP process to the Dems? The GOP is comparatively speaking anarchy compared to how the Dem process is about as Democratic as the NORK leadership succession.
The Democrats have nearly 800 super delegates. What’s a super delegate? That’s a delegate that people don’t vote for; a super delegate is appointed by the DNC. And they can vote for whoever they want from the jump. Bill Clinton is super delegate. Guess who he’s voting for. That’s right, he’s voting for Sanders because he knows Hillary.
Just kidding. Maybe.
The DNC invented super delegates so their Soviet central committee can overturn the will of the people and
The problem is when the people who voted for a candidate discover that their vote is so easily stolen by arcane rules, the stench and uproar will doom the establishment candidate. As I said, letting the candidates actually choose their own delegates eliminates all of these problems– that way Trump picks Trump supporters, Cruz picks his followers etc. But nooo, we have to have some system where the vote by the actual electorate becomes meaningless.
Its not that I don’t realize that the rules haven’t even been written yet that will govern this process, but those that exist now are too easily corrupted–existing from the old party boss system.
The outrage over stolen delegates will be HUUUGE. R’s will deserve what they get if they go down this path.
“Its not that I don’t realize that the rules haven’t even been written yet that will govern this process,”
Actually the rules that will govern the process for the 2016 election cycle have been written since before anyone announced their candidacy. Saying that the rules can be changed at the convention before the nominee is chosen is just a straw man to try to get people to believe that the nomination can actually be stolen.
There is one way to get the nomination, there has always only been one way and it has not changed, you get the nomination by getting 1237 delegates to vote yea for you. Period, done, end of story.
Something that is not yours can not be stolen. No one has the nomination therefore it can not be stolen. Trump chose to run as a Republican so he wouldn’t have to dish out the extra cash for signature drives as an independent. Now he wants to complain about the rules, even though those rules have not and will not change until after the nomination process is complete.
Guess what Ignorance of the Law is no defense, the same applies here.
Before my laptop became self-aware and hit submit I was going to say that the Democrats invented super delegates specifically so the party can pick the winner if they don’t like who the voters chose. They make up somewhere between 20 to 25% of all the Democratic party’s delegates.
The GOP has barely anything like that. Each state and territorial Republican committee can send 3 delegates. So the people don’t voter for them but out of 168 RNC delegates (state, territoris, D.C.) 153 have to vote on the first ballot for the candidate who won their respective primary just like a regular delegate. Only 15 are unelected AND are free to vote for whomever they want, like a Dem super delegate.
I don’t want to leave the impression that things are as simple as it may seem in my above two comments. We’re talking about 50 states, the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, the District of Columbia, and a dozen or so far flung territories.
Party primaries or caucuses, delegate selection, and delegate voting is governed by a mix of state law, state party committee rules, and national party committee rules. The exact mix is going to vary from state to state.
“RULE NO. 16 Election, Selection, Allocation, or Binding of Delegates and Alternate Delegates
(a) Binding and Allocation.
(2) The Secretary of the Convention shall faithfully announce and record each delegate’s vote in accordance with the delegate’s obligation under these rules, state law or state party rule. If any delegate bound by these rules, state party rule or state law to vote for a presidential candidate at the national convention demonstrates support under Rule 40 for any person
other than the candidate to whom he or she is bound, such support shall not be recognized. Except as provided for by state law or state party rule, no presidential candidate shall have the power to remove a delegate.”