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Carson Surges to 8 Point Lead Over Trump in Iowa

Carson Surges to 8 Point Lead Over Trump in Iowa

Trump responds exactly as expected

The latest from Quinnipiac has Ben Carson leading Donald Trump in Iowa by eight points. Trump’s average Iowa lead has shrunk to a meager .7.

Rubio and Cruz are the only other candidates in the double digits.

According to the release:

This compares to the results of a September 11 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University showing Trump at 27 percent with Carson at 21 percent.

Today, Sen. Rand Paul is at 6 percent, with Carly Fiorina and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush at 5 percent each. No other candidate tops 3 percent, with 3 percent undecided.

Even more interesting how poorly Trump polls among women and that he’s earned 30% of the “no way” vote.

Carson tops Trump 33 – 13 percent among women. Men are divided as 25 percent back Carson and 24 percent go with Trump.

Carson tops Trump 33 – 13 percent among women. Men are divided as 25 percent back Carson and 24 percent go with Trump.

Trump tops the “no way” list as 30 percent of Iowa likely Republican Caucus participants say they “would definitely not support” him for the GOP nomination. Bush is next on this “no way” list with 21 percent.

For 28 percent of Republican Caucus-goers a candidate who shares their values is most important, while 23 percent most want a candidate who is honest and trustworthy.

Carson shares their values, 84 percent of Republicans say, and 89 percent say he is honest and trustworthy, topping the GOP field for both qualities.

Following the release of the Quinnipiac Poll, Trump’s Twitter account retweeted:

“@mygreenhippo #BenCarson is now leading in the #polls in #Iowa. Too much #Monsanto in the #corn creates issues in the brain? #Trump #GOP”

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 22, 2015

That tweet was later removed from Trump’s feed and followed by this one:

Meanwhile, we’re all wondering what happened to Carly Fiorina who seems to have disappeared over the last few weeks.

Professor Jacobson asks, “Carly Fiorina has fallen, can she get back up?” Click the link and take the poll!

Follow Kemberlee on Twitter @kemberleekaye


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Well, that screws up the ol’ narrative, huh?

“With a big boost from women, Dr. Ben Carson leads Donald Trump 28 – 20 percent among Iowa likely Republican Caucus participants, with 13 percent for Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida and 10 percent for Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.”

    Estragon in reply to Ragspierre. | October 22, 2015 at 5:27 pm

    Their support comes from separate groups. Carson is mostly drawing evangelicals while Trump appeals to the disaffected secular voters.

    Iowa isn’t a primary where you swing by to vote for ten minutes sometime during the day. You have to drive in the dark after dinner, perhaps in snow and icy roads, to spend up to three hours in an unheated school lunchroom trying to convince enough of your neighbors of your candidate’s worth.

    – –

    It continues on, re-voting and regrouping until no more candidates with less than 15% support in that location remain. It’s a pain in the butt, and requires dedication.

    We know that the evangelicals will show up – Pat Robertson, Huckabee, and Santorum proved that – but the Trump voters? Even if they turn out, will they turn off everyone else?

      SafeTea in reply to Estragon. | October 22, 2015 at 7:48 pm

      I have to wonder if the Evangelicals are aware that Carson is a Seventh Day Adventist (which are primarily Universalists). I also wonder if his supporters are fully aware of how his current, seemingly conservative stances are in striking contrast to his not-so-long-ago liberal stances.

        Henry Hawkins in reply to SafeTea. | October 22, 2015 at 8:45 pm

        In a recent interview with… Glenn Beck, maybe?… Carson said the federal government ought to monitor public universities for excessive political bias and defund accordingly, that is, he advocated that government ought to become thought police, using the withholding of federal funds as a cudgel.

        While such a practice would find excessive liberal bias 1000 times more often than conservative bias, this is a decidedly liberal, progressive, collectivist, fascist approach. It is worrisome. If he walked it back, I missed it, but he may have.

      ZurichMike in reply to Estragon. | October 23, 2015 at 12:27 am

      Interesting stuff about how the caucuses are held — and under what conditions. I would imagine there is also a urban/rural divide in thinking, too.

Ben Carson is a great guy. So is Trump. This definitely makes l8fe interesting. Will need to see other new polls and if this poll’s results are corroborated by same. Maybe club for growth negative ads in Iowa have hurt Trump. Maybe it is Carson campaigning there. Gonna be interesting next 30 days.

Donald J. Trump


The young intern who accidentally did a Retweet apologizes.
1:59 PM – 22 Oct 2015

1,345 1,345 Retweets

David Burge @iowahawkblog

.@realDonaldTrump no problem, Iowans love to be insulted by New Yorkers
2:07 PM – 22 Oct 2015

39 39 Retweets

For some odd reason, it seems like people on Twitter are not entirely sure that T-rump is telling the truth.


    jakee308 in reply to Ragspierre. | October 22, 2015 at 6:15 pm

    Iowans deserve to be insulted by New Yorkers.

    They’re hustlers just like those they look down their nose at.

    Go in there and tell them their ethanol subsidy is going away and that they need to get back to producing FOOD and see what response you get.

    Better have a fast car to get away in.

Cruz, Carson, Trump in that order but any/all three is just fine with me.

Henry Hawkins | October 22, 2015 at 6:06 pm

Quinnipiac = TDS!

    Ragspierre in reply to Henry Hawkins. | October 22, 2015 at 6:12 pm

    Damn straight! You can’t count on those guys like you can NBC and ABC.

    Right? Right…???

      Henry Hawkins in reply to Ragspierre. | October 22, 2015 at 8:29 pm

      Right! But I was really gigging commenters who dub even the most solid points against Trump as “TDS!” It’s easier than refuting the points, of course.

        You thought you were joking, but they beat you to it, Henry. I am not making this up. I wish I were.

        Bonus explanations of various *real* reason Iowans support Carson. My favorite has to do with them being white people who like to watch basketball, and we all know what race the best basketball players are, do we not, wink wink?. Or something.

    “Quinnipiac = TDS!”

    Obviously they have been corrupted 🙂

    And to think, they were once a serious, legitimate outfit, with good results…

      You liked them well enough a couple of weeks ago when they showed Trump leading in Ohio.

        Dear Amy,

        Lighten up a bit. That little smiley face is supposed to be a clue.

        Quinnipiac has been one of the better polling outfits historically.

        OTOH, it is Iowa. OTOH, sometimes even reputable polling firms produce an outlier. We will have to wait to see precisely what this one means. It may be a trend beginning, or nothing at all. Not enough info at this point to make a determination.

          Sorry I jumped on you :-/
          And as for “it *is* Iowa…”, I’m not even sure how important Iowa is anymore. Not to mention, it’s still very early days. In my opinion, it’s nice to see Carson get a bump like this, but I’m not about to go out and put any money on him. Any single one of the candidates out there still has plenty of time to do or say something stupid, or to have something from the past come up, and end up imploding. None of them should be getting cocky yet.

Carly hit that glass ceiling on her triumphant elevation from the “Debate”. It’s a real mess and then of course, what goes up, must come down and so she’s now back in single digits barely above the bottom feeders.

Christie, Paul, Huckabee and Kasich could be removed and we wouldn’t notice it a bit. There there only to be spoilers for JEB!

    DaMav in reply to jakee308. | October 22, 2015 at 6:20 pm

    A lot of folks liked Fiorina enough to look into her record and recoiled in horror at her support for Amnesty writ large (Gang of Eight bill) and the DREAM Act

      Ragspierre in reply to DaMav. | October 22, 2015 at 6:26 pm

      A lot of folks slavishly follow T-rump to the point they don’t care about his amnesty plan.

      Well, or any of his other Collectivist policies.

      Cults of personality are like that…

I still don’t consider Carson to be my favorite, but he is growing on me. On some issues where I disagree with Carson, I believe that he can be brought around to at least a somewhat better (from my perspective) view. I always have been a bit concerned about politicians who stake out strong, firm, unshakeable positions on everything under the sun. Of course, this covers most politicians. I am more concerned about their worldview, which underlies their views on the issues. With Carson, I feel he shares a worldview similar to my own. With Trump, I have no clue what his worldview is except that he is at the center of it.

For some of my notes on Carson and his appearance in Colorado Springs, go here :!carson-rally/c1oar

Kimberley, please resist the urge to tell us what to think.

    Radegunda in reply to Juba Doobai!. | October 22, 2015 at 11:32 pm

    Where did Kemberlee (not Kimberley) do any such thing in this post? It’s pretty straightforward reportage, except for a mildly subjective statement about the predictability of Trump’s response to anything he’s not winning.

    What’s also “as expected” is Trump fans’ touchy response to any statements that aren’t 100% supportive of Trump.

      Ragspierre in reply to Radegunda. | October 23, 2015 at 6:12 am

      I meant to give you “up twinkles”. You’re entirely correct.

      Kondor77 in reply to Radegunda. | October 23, 2015 at 9:18 am

      Ding ding ding! 100% spot on about Trump supporters. Any mild criticism of Trump to them is like you punting their dog across the street. It’s telling how some people treat another human being like a savior. Wonder how that turned out for the country last time.

    The bias from this one is overwhelming.

Carson’s support has jumped 10 percentage points since the last Iowa Poll in August, and Trump’s has fallen 4 points. This shift to a new pack leader is a thunderclap in the Republican presidential race.


Asked which candidate they’d like to see drop out of the race, if anyone, more caucusgoers (25 percent) name Trump than any of his 14 rivals. And among both moderates and caucusgoers ages 44 or under, 36 percent would like him to quit, noted J. Ann Selzer, the pollster for the Iowa Poll.


What an interesting turn of events.

Dr Carson gives T-Phobes a reason for hope, such as it is.

It’s Iowa.

Carson hasn’t yet received much opposition attention from fellow contenders, yet.

This Iowa poll puts him on all contenders’ threat radar.

One area that will likely see attention is Carson’s Medicare Policy.

Anyone here know about that? Yet?

Then there is Democrats’ hatred of a black republican because existential threat to their voter base. Liberals fear Carson more than Trump in the White House.

As he rises in the polls, so rises Democrats’ Racist Agent Orange.

Who knows what lengths they will go to to shut down that black republican at any and all costs.

Let’s face it, the chances of a black Republican surviving a racist Democrat tsunami is not good, sadly.

So let me get this straight; a guy who Trump has basically let alone and who has been climbing since his 2nd appearance suddenly surges in one poll in one state and suddenly it’s a irresistible tsunami that will sweep Carson into the Nomination?

Let’s wait and see for some other polls in other states and maybe another one in Iowa before you all start giving each other hand jobs.

And BTW, Carson isn’t as good a candidate as you may think. Right now you’re delighted to see Trump lose anything so you’re not thinking rationally. I believe that Carson would be a disaster. Perhaps even worse than Hillary. Because at least Hillary knows how to cover her ass. Carson is a babe in the woods politically. Nice guy, but nice guys get eaten up in DC like popcorn.

    Henry Hawkins in reply to jakee308. | October 23, 2015 at 7:00 pm

    Um, three polls now.

      Henry Hawkins in reply to Henry Hawkins. | October 24, 2015 at 9:42 am

      Here’s Trump not jumping on Carson:

      “I like Ben, but he cannot do with trade like I do,” Trump said. “He can’t do with a lot of things like I do, so we’ll just have to see what happens.”

      “He’s just not going to be able to do deals with China, to be able to do deals with Japan.”

      “He’s very, very weak on immigration and I’m very strong on immigration,” Trump said. “Ben Carson is very, very weak on immigration. He believes in amnesty strongly. He believes in citizenship. He’s going to give citizenship to people who are here illegally — you can’t do that.”


      None so deaf as those who will not listen.

I don’t think this is a one-off poll and I do think this should be of great concern for the Trump campaign. He is not doing well in Wisconsin either. As I have said before, the fight for the nomination in Iowa has only partially begun. The big money will be coming. Trump cannot just fly in, do a rally, fly out and expect to collect the votes he needs. He is actually going to have to do retail politics in that state.

It’s hard to understand why Cruz is not doing better there. He is the kind of candidate that Iowans should like.

    Barry in reply to PhillyGuy. | October 23, 2015 at 1:25 pm

    “He is not doing well in Wisconsin either.”

    What do you consider “doing well” in Wisconsin ?
    There have been very few recent polls in Wisconsin without a favorite son, only one I can find, from yesterday, which has Trump tied for 2nd place with Rubio at 18% and Carson in the lead at 20%. If that is not doing well your metric is different from mine.

    “Trump cannot just fly in, do a rally, fly out…”

    What makes you think that is trumps plan? Do you have any idea who and what trump has going on in Iowa?

    “It’s hard to understand why Cruz is not doing better there. He is the kind of candidate that Iowans should like.”

    I’ve always found Iowa to be a flakey place, really not worth much except for the position in the primaries.

      PhillyGuy in reply to Barry. | October 23, 2015 at 2:42 pm

      Barry, I have no idea what Trump’s plan is. All I said is that he will need to do retail politics in the state and get ready for the ad blitz against him. If they want to be on the air in Iowa in February, they are going to need to buy the time soon. We’ve already heard that some Super PACS plan on running anti-Trump ads in that state. No doubt Rubio and Bush will spend money there too. It’s a quirky state with all the religious conservatives there. The positive for Trump is they are building a large campaign structure there precinct by precinct.

      Wisconsin is a different issue. He has not campaigned there at all. He may decide that the state is not worth his time (they have 42 delegates up for grabs) The primary is April 5th but the northeastern states all come right after that. The delegate haul there is enormous. He needs to get to 1144 to win the nomination.

        Barry in reply to PhillyGuy. | October 23, 2015 at 9:00 pm

        “I have no idea what Trump’s plan is.”

        Actually, you do – “The positive for Trump is they are building a large campaign structure there precinct by precinct.”

        My real point however, trump is doing well in Wisconsin.

It isn’t “acceptable” in polite society to support Donald Trump, I am told.

America’s bullies – the sneering, “we know better than you” establishment classes – have made many cower in silence rather than proclaim that Trump is a tremendous presidential candidate and has earned their support.

It is a replay of the worst aspects of high school peer-pressure, about what’s OK and what isn’t, based on selfish interests and prejudices.

Well, enough of that. Trump is already changing America for the better – and is encouraging us to boldly stand up for our beliefs about what’s best for our nation and best for our fellow Americans.

So let’s get right to it. Shifting America back on course requires Donald Trump as the Republican nominee. Not only is he the only Republican candidate who could win the general election, but he is the only choice Republican voters should consider (and should consider themselves lucky to have on their side).

In no particular order, here are the top 20 reasons why:

    Ragspierre in reply to Gary Britt. | October 23, 2015 at 3:40 pm

    And nothing has changed. Duh Donald is a dangerous. Obama dangerous.

      I want everyone to know, Rags, your link is FOUR YEARS OLD & you learned yesterday that Levin is supportive of Trump’s Supporters & his 2016 run for President.

      What a deciever you are…

        Ragspierre in reply to VotingFemale. | October 23, 2015 at 9:06 pm

        I want everyone to you you were challenged to name anything that Levin said four years ago that was a lie.

        You could not.

        Levin is NOT “supportive” of T-rump.

        You are a liar.

          Rags you ignorant slu*t.

          If your claim that Levin doesn’t support Trumps immigration plan and Trumps tax plan is truthful then it should be easy for you to pkst a link from 2015 where Levin criticizes Trump and reasserts the things from 2012. Since the only link you have is so old clearly you are telling lies about what Levin says today. So that makes you what? Can you say LIAR.

        Ragspierre in reply to VotingFemale. | October 24, 2015 at 12:10 pm

        Why not go to Levin’s actuality on taxes, you stinking liar?

        Levin: “Do I prefer a Flat Tax; YES! Do I prefer a Fair Tax; YES!”

        Of course, the lying T-rump had…in turn…pretended to favor REAL tax reform like those above, before settling on “his” code dicking “plan”. Which is almost the same as Bush’s “plan”. And both leave the IRS intact.

        Levin: “This is where I have a disagreement with Donald Trump. Everybody…pretty much…otta pay something in taxes”…and etc. This, of course, is where REAL conservatives have issues with the NOT T-rump plan, which is NOT real reform at a time when we should militate for real reform. Being a CPA, I can see where you’re a reactionary in defense of your rice bowl.

        Levin also admits that he’s no tax maven, notes that Bush’s tax plan is about 3% different, etc. Since Reagan was WRONG on tax policy, calling T-rump’s plan Reaganesque is not a compliment if you’re actually a conservative (which we know you’re not, lying liar).

        NOT T-rump’s tax plan has been scored by a conservative tax policy outfit. They show that…if it were made law…it would result in even higher deficits that we have now.

        Analysis shows it is NOT a “tax the rich” plan as T-rump lied it was, but would actually leave the rich better off. Couple that with making MORE of America NON-payers for their federal government, you can see where the NOT revenue neutral scoring would have to be.

        IF you were not a dishonest puke.

          Rags quotes Levin as follows:
          Levin: “Do I prefer a Flat Tax; YES! Do I prefer a Fair Tax; YES!”

          He left out the very next statement “But this is a good plan”

          Wonder why?

          From the link provided by Rags:
          Mark Levin:

          “It’s a hellava plan” (5 seconds in)

          “Let me tell you the strong things in this” (15 seconds in)
          “7 brackets to 4”
          “and the top rate is 25%”

          “Do I prefer the flat tax, yes. Do I prefer the fair tax, yes. But this is a good plan” (about 1 minute in)

          I encourage everyone to listen to the whole thing, about 5 minutes.

          Is it my favorite plan, no. I prefer a simple consumption based tax plan. That is a difficult proposition however. Trumps plan (yes it is his plan regardless of who helped or created idea’s, to say otherwise is just more disinformation) is an improvement over what we have now, and is doable in that it does not require a constitutional amendment. My preference does, and it ain’t likely to happen anytime soon.

          So, change the current system, and work for a better one requiring amendment.

          Sum it up, Mark Levin said “It’s a hellava plan”.

          Everything else is dis-information.

          Oh darn, sorry I left out:

          “IF you were not a dishonest puke”, you would include Levin’s complete comment.

          Ragspierre in reply to Ragspierre. | October 24, 2015 at 8:43 pm

          But, Barry, you poor delusional liar, I did include the whole Levin statement.

          Did you miss the link?

          But, Rags, you poor delusional liar, you did not include the whole Levin statement.

          Ragspierre in reply to Ragspierre. | October 25, 2015 at 10:07 am

          No, Barry, you lying liar.

          I didn’t transcribe the whole Levin actuality.

          I DID include it. And, as always, I invited everyone to access it.

          You’ve become such a stinking liar as your TDS has advanced. Sad, really.


          You left it out on purpose because it suits your fake narrative. It was a clear part of what Levin was saying.

          What and why you left it out is clear for everyone to see.

          Ragspierre in reply to Ragspierre. | October 25, 2015 at 3:36 pm

          I have no “fake narrative”, you filthy lying liar.

          My comments are very clear, without artifice, and open to HONEST counterpoints.

          You’re lying. You’re using the pretext that I did not transcribe Levin’s actuality, which is a pure piece of bullshit on your part in searching for a lie to smear me over.

          I referred everyone to the Levin program segment, which is how you got your lying bullshit.

          You fail to address the OTHER elements of the same comment, including the quote from Levin that he’s not a tax guy.

          The NOT T-rump tax plan is almost identical to the Jeb! and Rubio plans, with very little distinctions between them, and fewer likely to emerge from Congress.

          You’ve really gone deep diving in the T-rumpian cess pool. Poor idiot.

          “I have no “fake narrative”, you filthy lying liar.”

          You left out the whole statement, you know, the part that says “But this is a good plan”.

          Period, lie by omission, and you new exactly what you were doing.

          You’re a liar. A filthy one at that.

          Ragspierre in reply to Ragspierre. | October 25, 2015 at 6:37 pm

          Again, you’re just lying, Barry.

          The whole actuality is in my post, where all (including you, you filthy liar) could go to it for reference.

          Which in fact you did.

          My point was…and it still IS…that Britt lied about Levin “loving Trump’s tax plan”. He approves of it generally with several of the EXACT same criticisms I and others here have been making since it came out.

          AND, again, he notes the frog-fur distinctions between the NOT T-rump “plan” and Jeb!’s “plan”.

          Neither of which he considers his choice…which, like me, is real reform.

          You not only have gone diving in the T-rumpian cess pool, you’ve inhaled.

          Again, you’re just lying, Rags.

          Rags: “My point was…and it still IS…that Britt lied about Levin “loving Trump’s tax plan”.”

          Marl Levin: “It’s a hellava plan” , “But this is a good plan”

          At guess it all depends on how you define “love”.
          If Britt made that claim, “love”, it was in another thread, not in this one that I can find.

          You purposely left out Levin saying it was a good plan because that fit your BS narrative, that Levin trashed trumps tax plan. A lie of course, perpetrated by the commenter that always accuses everyone else of being a liar. You included nothing in your original comment that indicated anything positive from Levin, even though your link is just that.

          It is clear to anyone what you tried to do.

          Ragspierre in reply to Ragspierre. | October 25, 2015 at 8:11 pm

          The whole actuality is in my post, where all (including you, you filthy liar) could go to it for reference.

          Which in fact you did.

          You not only have gone diving in the T-rumpian cess pool, you’ve inhaled.

          The whole deception is in your post, where all (including you, you filthy liar) could go to it for reference.

          You not only have gone diving in the TDS pool, you’ve inhaled.

          Ragspierre in reply to Ragspierre. | October 25, 2015 at 10:55 pm

          The whole actuality is in my post, where all (including you, you filthy liar) could go to it for reference.

          Which in fact you did. Liar.

          You not only have gone diving in the T-rumpian cess pool, you’ve inhaled.

i before e except after c… yeesh

Reagan did not win the Iowa primary, but became President. Huckabee and Santorum did win the Iowa primary on different occasions. They are not President.

‘nuf said.