Rick Perry might be down but he’s not out
Super PACs still have $14 million to burn
Late Monday evening, National Journal reported Rick Perry was no longer paying campaign staff in South Carolina.
Naturally, the report raised speculation that Governor Perry’s presidential campaign might be the first to run out of fuel. Later, several news outlets reported that Perry’s entire campaign staff had been relegated to volunteer status and given the go-ahead to seek other employment.
While Perry’s campaign isn’t rolling in dough, the Super PACs supporting the Governor’s presidential bid certainly aren’t broke. They’re also not flush with cash.
National Journal explained Tuesday:
But while his official campaign has been reduced to a volunteer operation, a trio of independent pro-Perry super PACs remain well-heeled, making it less likely Perry will be forced to exit the race entirely.
“Oh God, yes, full steam ahead,” said Austin Barbour, a senior adviser to Perry’s super PACs. “Because we raised $16.8 million.”
The remarkable imbalance between the cash-strapped campaign and the flush super PAC will likely test the limits, already being pushed by other underfunded candidates, of how much responsibility can be pushed off onto unlimited-money outside groups.
“We raised as much money as possible so that we would have the ability to spend it in whatever way we needed to spend it,” Barbour said, “whether it was traditional super PAC ways on paid media or whatever other ways we need.”
Several other Republican campaigns (see also: Fiorina’s, Walker’s, and Bush’s) rely heavily on their supporting Super PACs to purchase and place the lion’s share of often pricey ad buys.
Federal Election Commission regulations prohibit campaign staffers from hopping over to the PAC without first waiting 120 days.
In a crowded field, not having the opportunity to participate in the first prime time Republican presidential debate last week did nothing to help Perry’s cause.
RedState’s Erick Erickson reminded readers McCain’s campaign faced similar difficulties early on:
In the 2008 Presidential campaign season, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) ran out of money in August of 2007 and went on to be the Republican nominee in August of 2008.
In the 2012 campaign cycle, Newt Gingrich not only lost his money but his whole staff quit on him. He went on regroup and win South Carolina.
Perry and McCain did not see the staff departures. Most of Perry’s folks are saying they still stand with him because of passion, not money.
He needs a path forward and that may be hard for him since he did not get a seat at the first debate. But given McCain and Gingrich, I would not count him out.
McCain was able to overcome his predicament by going on to win New Hampshire. Perry’s campaign has their sights set on Iowa.
Presidential campaign history is littered with candidates who, after financial woes, retreated to focus on a single state, most notably John McCain in 2008, who went on to win the GOP nomination after winning in New Hampshire. For Perry, most believe that state must be Iowa.
“Bottom line is to make sure we get him in place to win Iowa,” Barbour said of their strategy, “or at least get a top-three finish in Iowa.”
Tuesday, Governor Perry tweeted:
We are continuing the fight & we will win! Donate today —–> http://t.co/YLEHGNSaDY #Perry2016
— Rick Perry (@GovernorPerry) August 11, 2015
Several of his campaign staffers appeared to be upbeat and claimed they were pressing forward nonetheless. Legal Insurrection spoke to other members of Perry’s campaign staff who mirrored the attitudes beneath.
Team Perry Crew isn't going anywhere. All 400 of us.
— Emily R. Berman (@EmilyRBerman1) August 11, 2015
Team Perry Campaign is STRONGER than ever! We are working 24/7 and are doing just fine! Praise God! 🙂
— Emily R. Berman (@EmilyRBerman1) August 11, 2015
The media can report whatever they want to but Team Perry SC isn't going anywhere. We believe in @GovernorPerry. Here to stay! #Perry2016
— ErikBCorcoran (@ErikBCorcoran) August 11, 2015
I thank God that I am a staffer for @GovernorPerry for such a time as this. The American people want a fighter, Rick Perry is that man.
— ErikBCorcoran (@ErikBCorcoran) August 11, 2015
At least one big donor is chipping in to help. While 100 g’s is a start, it’s going to take a lot more to keep Governor Perry in the race.
Just in: PERRY super PAC landed a $100,000 donation this morning from a Texas rancher. "I'm in," donor told @Austin_Barbour.
— Philip Rucker (@PhilipRucker) August 11, 2015
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Um, when you’re having serious money problems fifteen months out and you’re having trouble moving out of the bottom third of polls, and you didn’t do badly, but lost the JV debate, and big donors have gone elsewhere, it m-i-g-h-t be near to over.
I like Rick Perry, but unfortunately it just doesn’t seem to be happening for him.
So you dismiss the examples of McCain ’07 and Gingrich ’11 completely, then?
There will certainly be some early departures, but there really isn’t any need to be anywhere now except Iowa and NH, with an occasional trip to SC. Perry’s PACs have plenty of money, he will just have to make do with chain motels instead of Hiltons and Marriotts.
With the possible exceptions of Pataki and Gilmore, I don’t expect anyone to quit before Iowa votes, but after that, there will be several exiting quickly.
“So you dismiss the examples of McCain ’07 and Gingrich ’11 completely, then?”
Anything is possible.
Reality: Both McCain and Gingrich had a support level a bit north of Perry’s 1%.
It is that combination, out of money, no support. Declaring Perry’s candidacy as DOA is a no brainer. But you can hope and wish all you want.
There are few to no similarities between 2016 Perry and McCain or Gingrich, not in terms of the man, his biggest office (gov), his policies, or his political situation of being one on a very strong GOP roster for 2016.
For every come-from-behind, surge example exists polar counterpart, the examples of well-advantaged candidates deemed frontrunners from the beginning who flamed out in short order.
Of course Perry or any candidate can unexpectedly surge. They can just as easily go right down the drain. I don’t have to “dismiss” your pre-selected examples chosen because they serve your premise.
It is my judgment, and to my dismay because I like the guy, that Rick Perry is pretty much done. He got into 2012 too hastily, unprepared and dealing with pain meds and muscle relaxers. In 2012, a simple brain fart made him forget the third of three agencies he’d cut, no big deal to me, but unfortunately it happened during a very important televised debate and it damaged his campaign.
It’s four years later and the stage has been rearranged. 2012 was a long time ago. That GOP field is gone. Though there are currently 17 GOP candidates for 2016, only one – Rick Santorum – ran in 2012. Perry faces several very good candidates, far better than the 2012 primary slate.
Not long into his 2016 campaign, Perry is having major money troubles, is losing big donors fast, is stagnated at the wrong end of polls, and failed to win the 5 pm “JV” debate, losing handily to Fiorina. He is not likely to see a surge in the polls sufficient to put him in the top ten for the next debate.
I hate it, but I think he’s toast, pretty much smiling and treading water till the last of the money is gone.
(Only one from 2012 is running in 2016 beyond Perry himself, obviously).
Good! Perry SHOULD be in this.
He’s toast. Perry has a tin ear for the electorate. He’s not good in debates. His attack on Trump was pretty stupid and not very strategic either. But for a 1%er, he gets a lot of attention.
Maybe the comparisons to McCain aren’t helpful …
He’s dead, Jim.
As near as I can tell your only activity on this site has been to spruik that fraud Trump. How much is he paying you, or are you so enamored of him that you eat his **** for free?
Only someone so afraid of trump could read my comment about the state of Perry’s candidacy and get support for trump out of it.
As near as I can tell your only activity on this site has been to spread your fear of Trump.
You mistake fear for disdain. Trump is a terrible candidate because he is NOT a conservative. You are delusional if you think he is. He is the biggest RINO in the race, and he is helping Jeb by pulling support from conservatives candidates by hoodwinking your dumb ass.
Loud does not equal conservative. Infantilizing Americans does not equal conservative. Attacking the ONLY media outlet that ever presents the conservative viewpoint does not equal conservative. Notice he hasn’t attacked ANY other news outlet, and he sure isn’t going to attack NBC, the worst of them all. Support for TARP, the auto bail-out and the stimulus does not equal conservative. Dodging the draft does not equal conservative. Nationalized health care is not conservative. Giving cash to Democrats is not conservative.
I hope this is just a case of puppy love with someone who says what you want to hear because where the rubber meets the road, you are NOT supporting a conservative. You and the rest of the idiots in your camp had better wake the hell up soon, because Trump is driving us to a brokered convention which can only yield Jeb as the candidate, with Trump running 3rd party. Even people as stupid as his supporters should be able to see what that will mean for us.
Lets see, we have a thread about Mr. Perry and his prospects, and millhouse and JRT turn it into a screed about trump.
You are telling us who you fear. Not unwarranted to fear trump getting the nomination.
A more ridiculous claim has probably never been made. Everyone knows I’m one of the most active commenters here, on practically every topic. People wish I’d comment less. Yes, I am absolutely opposed to Trump, and will denounce him whenever the occasion presents itself (though I stood up for him when he was attacked for telling the truth about the uncontrolled stream of people crossing the Mexican border). But that is only a small percentage of my activity here, and you know it very well but deliberately lie.
“But that is only a small percentage of my activity here, and you know it very well but deliberately lie.”
Lately, you are all about trump. However, my comment was simply a parody of yours:
“As near as I can tell your only activity on this
site has been to spruik that fraud Trump.”
Which is, of course, a lie.
Trump is really getting to you.
Well I guess the glasses didn’t work.
Here’s a little quiz you should take. In fact, everyone should. It’s fun! 🙂
There are smart people who predicted Perry would be kept in the race come hell or high water till March 2016. To split the Texas vote because Jeb wants to win and he can’t get above 20% support from the base.
If that is true – Shame on Perry !
There are smart people who see a two term successful governor in a conservative state as being a natural in a GOP primary instead of a bloviating liberal RINO who is a known Hillary supporter and thinks all politicians are for sale. That would include Ted Cruz, Mike Lee and other solid conservatives. Trump thinks he can buy the. No, not buy them, OWN them. Think about that for a bit.
I know which website you’re talking about and I have their RSS feed in my inbox daily due to their excellent research on #blacklivesmatter and the Zimmerman issue. However, they’re proving to be completely politically blind when it comes to Trump, even to the point of creating some long term conspiracy theory that would be amusing coming from the left.
“We have to take care of women.”
—Donald Trump, yesterday
I thought that a very revealing statement for any Conservative to ponder.
He said it while approving of Federal funding for Planned Abortionhood…just not for abortions. Which shows his ignorance for BOTH current law and economics.
Food for thought.
Yeah, lol, Trump of all people, along with Hillary knows how fungible cash is. 🙂
If he’s got such a great health care plan (:rolleyes), why wouldn’t women just be taken care of by regular Ob-Gyn docs? Women don’t need special clinics for their female issues. Trump is full of crap. He just doesn’t want the abortion lobby on his butt. Planned Parenthood IS the back alley and he thinks we’re stupid enough to buy into “Oh, we should just fund the women’s health care part.”
“We have to take care of the women.” I don’t need that SOB taking care of me, and I despise the paternalism of the statement. Good gawd, what a jackass!
Then why is he at 0% for how long now?
Did I mention Trump? It is Cruz he is hurting. But go ahead, by all means, throw the “Conspiracy Theorist” curve ball.
Perry has got a Thad Cochran operative working for him, that should disqualify him immediately.
Most of the Republican field are being supported by big money establishment donors. Of course the establishment wants to split the vote of conservatives, that’s why none of them will pull out, even though staying in makes no sense.
Of course, stick with those staunch conservatives like Boehner and McConnell if you want; I reckon a wrecking ball is better; YMMV.
I strongly support Ted Cruz; but he’s got much less chance than Trump does. Why? 1/ He told the truth, that McConnell is a liar; 2/ he has a wee small constitutional problem in that a lot of constitutional conservatives won’t vote for him. (Emanations and penumbras belong in the outhouse, so don’t bring up caselaw, please.)
Also, the excellent website that discusses this is The Conservative Treehouse, found here:
Open eyes can see things that those wearing blinkers may miss; funny that!
“…he has a wee small constitutional problem in that a lot of constitutional conservatives won’t vote for him.”
Oh, I’ll just bet that Cruz is smart enough to factor in the Fruitcake Fringe in his thinking.
If you’re talking about the site I think you’re talking about, they are NOT smart people. It’s a bunch of politically unsophisticated, mostly under-educated, closed-minded, groupthink knee-jerk rubes following a cult-like, self-aggrandizing guru who has no political acumen and should stick to subjects where the site’s coverage has occasionally shown some value.
Amen, and amen. There are plenty of horror stories out there about the people running that site. Not at all pretty.
“… politically unsophisticated, mostly under-educated, closed-minded, groupthink knee-jerk rubes following a cult-like, self-aggrandizing guru… ”
Whew. Fer ah while thar, it sounded lock yew wuz talkin’ ’bout ME.
Chamber of commerce and other puppeteers are trying to keep Perry in for their chess game of getting THEIR choice Jeb as the R nominee.
Sundance at Conservative Treehouse has laid this all out in several posts.
Its We.The.People VS R.establishment. Perry is just a pawn…. literally….
As a proud Trump supporter, I beg of you all:
Please keep attacking Donald Trump!
Please, please, pretty please with unicorn droppings!
(My underhanded motive for the above is, I want to Make America Great Again!)
In the immortal WORD of Gen. Mcalluf at Bastonge…
Nope. That comes when we ask you to surrender 🙂