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Jeb’s Super PAC to Meet $100 Million Goal

Jeb’s Super PAC to Meet $100 Million Goal

Can he “spend his way to the win”?

Jeb Bush’s super PAC expects to raise $100 million by the end of this month.  According to Politico:

Jeb Bush is putting in motion an ambitious plan to develop a super PAC that would be unprecedented in its size and scope — a blueprint growing in scale and intensity as he nears the formal launch of his presidential campaign.

The group, called Right to Rise, is said to be on track for raising an historic $100 million by the end of May, and its budget is expected to dwarf that of Bush’s official campaign many times over. In interviews, more than half a dozen sources familiar with the Right to Rise plans described a juggernaut that was rapidly taking shape — from its likely headquarters in Los Angeles, 2,700 miles from the Miami office where Bush was basing his campaign, to a new fundraising push aimed at expanding its ballooning coffers.

It turns out that his delay in announcing his candidacy is likely tied to campaign finance laws:

Bush’s decision to put off a formal announcement is rooted in the complex nature of campaign-finance laws. As a non-federal officeholder who hasn’t yet become a candidate, he’s allowed to travel the country and solicit large contributions of unlimited amounts for Right to Rise. Once he becomes a declared candidate, though, Bush won’t be able to ask for donations of more than a few thousand dollars for the super PAC. At that time, he’ll also be prohibited from discussing strategy with the consultants and operatives who will be running the group.

One person who’d been briefed on Bush’s timeline said he was eying a June announcement, tied to his return from a trip to Poland, Germany and Estonia. Under that scenario, the former governor would have about another month to, without restriction, raise funds for Right to Rise and to communicate with the strategists who are likely to guide it.

In January, Jeb announced his Right to Rise PAC. Here’s the smart phone clip he posted to Facebook:

While it seems likely that Bush’s fundraising will rival only Clinton’s, there is some doubt about whether he can “spend his way to the win”:

Certainly, money will still be essential in 2016, and it remains an advantage to have more of it than anyone else. In an extended primary, when the race moves on to larger states for votes held on the same day, an outsized bank account could yet play an important role.

But diminishing returns on cash investments undoubtedly shift the burden of securing the win back on to the candidate and his or her skills: These contenders will need to demonstrate an ability to click, in real time, with voters and offer a compelling message rather than simply relying on slick strategy to sell them digitally. In effect, the Republican presidential primary could become like the general election for the presidency, where the massive amounts of money spent by each party cancels itself out and rarely leads to substantial returns with voters.

That’s bad news for the candidates who are struggling to connect—namely Jeb Bush, whose current front-runner status hinges mostly on the expectation that he will outraise, not outperform, his rivals.

It seems questionable whether Jeb can outperform his more conservative GOP rivals in areas that will secure him wins in  Republican primaries.  As CBS puts it, Jeb “clings to unpopular views on immigration and Common Core,” and even if he does decide at some point to shift right on these points, the base is unlikely to believe him.  As it stands now, he’s already lagging in polls in both Florida and Iowa, in the latter he was in 7th place in Quinnipiac‘s most recent poll.

Will his incredibly flush war chest make the difference?  Will it push him over the top and into the GOP nomination and even on to the White House?

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Comments

“and even if he does decide at some point to shift right on these points, the base is unlikely to believe him”

This should go in a Merriam-Webster dictionary as an example of an understatement:).

    Sammy Finkelman in reply to walls. | May 10, 2015 at 10:03 am

    I don’t think he has any intention of shifting his position on either of those two issues, except he may be a bit less strong on Common Core.

    Estragon in reply to walls. | May 10, 2015 at 5:45 pm

    Of course, money doesn’t guarantee the nomination. Phil Gramm in 1996 and Hillary in 2006-07 had huge fundraising advantages over the rest of the field, and Gramm didn’t even make it past Iowa. But it’s better to have it than not have it.

    The problem with asserting what “the base” will or won’t do is that the actual base isn’t just strong conservatives. Think about it: is there an elected GOP member of Congress who has NOT been called a “RINO” by the base? Maybe a couple dozen altogether. Well all those “RINOs” keep being reelected and, no matter what the self-anointed “base” thinks, it isn’t Democrats voting them in all the time.

    – –

    The fact remains that claiming to be “the base” doesn’t actually make anyone the base – else the hated “RINOs” wouldn’t win nearly every contested primary.

Sammy Finkelman | May 10, 2015 at 10:01 am

The PAC could hurt him, if he doesn’t control it (and he’s not supposed to – he’s not even maybe supposed t ask them not to do or say something)

Henry Hawkins | May 10, 2015 at 10:05 am

Money can buy you air time and slick messaging, but money won’t put substance into what’s being messaged. All Bush will do is bullhorn his deficiencies louder and wider.

Can he “spend his way to the win”?

No.

Next question.

Jeb Bush is a well-qualified candidate because he is a successful former governor. If I were not strongly opposed to political dynasties, I would be happy to support him as much as any of the other fine Republican candidates.

    clintack in reply to Valerie. | May 10, 2015 at 11:00 am

    This too.

    I’d rather see Jeb step up to help us hold the senate seat that Rubio is leaving vacant in a swing state when we’ve got a very narrow majority.

    It’s entirely possible that in 2016 we’ll take the White House, lose the Senate, and see lots of very important, very reasonable legislation tied up in the Senate.

      Ragspierre in reply to clintack. | May 10, 2015 at 11:18 am

      Hey, no worries!

      We have a clear precedent for executive action now!

      (Pay-back being a…well, you know…)

I don’t understand why Jebbie doesn’t declare for the democrat party. ALL HIS IDEAS ARE LIBERAL! If he isn’t smart enough to realize that, he shouldn’t even be in the race. 100 million, 100 billion. Doesn’t matter. There isn’t enough money in the world to get him elected.

Jeb’s open hostility to conservatives makes him obnoxious, as does his disregard for immigration law, his weird notion that the United States desperately needs to become more Latino, and his offensive suggestions that those of us who want our laws to be respected and our basic culture to be maintained are just mean.

On top of that, he has an air of dynastic entitlement, or at least a failure to acknowledge the perils of dynasties in a democratic polity. Altogether, he’s creepy.

    Estragon in reply to Radegunda. | May 10, 2015 at 5:37 pm

    True enough, but that stuff didn’t stop McCain from winning the nomination in 2008, and he blew all his early money (still had Schmidt and Wallace in the mix, not sure if that’s why, but …) and had to do it on a shoestring budget until Super Tuesday.

Golly: Perhaps George P is waiting so that he can run maybe 8 years after his father’s term in done! Then, perhaps Jenna or Barbara will run to try and balance the numbers of reigns for their side of the family tree!

Isn’t it just peachy that we’ve got these wonderful dynastic families to ensure our American Heritage forever! Yep, with the Adams’, the Harrison’s, the Clinton’s, and the Bushes, we’ll never run out of royal families to rule our great democracy!

Or, as was said in early 1775, we need a younger man to captain the 2nd Hollis militia company; things are looking bleak for a peaceful future, the way our government is going.

If he could, Jeb would have taken Christie’s place and hugged Obama right before the election.

He’s liberal milquetoast.

    Estragon in reply to TheFineReport.com. | May 10, 2015 at 5:47 pm

    Compare and contrast Jeb Bush’s two terms as Governor in Florida with Ronald Reagan’s two in California, and then tell me he’s a “liberal milquetoast.”

    You can’t help being a moron, but you could keep quiet.

      Paul in reply to Estragon. | May 10, 2015 at 7:13 pm

      There are a lot of people, and I mean a LOT, who simply will not vote for Jeb because he is the Republican establishment’s pre-ordained choice. We’ve been lied to and disrespected by that establishment enough… screw them and their candidate. Millions of conservative voters will simply stay home out of spite rather than vote for whatever that smarmy twat Karl Rove is selling.

      Henry Hawkins in reply to Estragon. | May 11, 2015 at 9:47 am

      You get immediately ugly with anyone who doesn’t agree with you. We’re morons now.

      World’s Worst Salesman again, lol. If Jeb Bush were commenting on this thread he’d be telling you, “dude, just shut up, don’t advocate for me, OK?”

Henry Hawkins | May 10, 2015 at 3:20 pm

Bush is a center-left progressive, has told the base of his own party to take a hike, he neither wants or needs them, and feels entitled to the White House despite not having run for office in over a decade, because, well, his last name is Bush. Not gonna happen.

    Estragon in reply to Henry Hawkins. | May 10, 2015 at 5:49 pm

    Name three Governors whose record in office was more conservative than Jeb’s, and then maybe you can talk about “center-left progressive.” Just because someone isn’t a raving lunatic doesn’t make them a “center-left progressive” except in your imagination.

      Henry Hawkins in reply to Estragon. | May 11, 2015 at 9:47 am

      LOL

        Henry Hawkins in reply to Henry Hawkins. | May 11, 2015 at 1:19 pm

        Henry, I guess he never heard of Scott Walker, Rick Perry, Nikki Haley, Rick Snyder, Jan Brewer, Paul LePage, Mary Fallin, Pat McCrory, etc.

        But why does he believe Bush was the most conservative, Henry?

        Because Bush TOLD him he was, Henry, and he bought it!

        “Jeb Bush: I’m as conservative as any governor of past 20 years”

        http://onpolitics.usatoday.com/2015/04/17/jeb-bush-new-hampshire-conservative/

        Wow! Bush must be one conservative governor, Henry!

        Well, no… he hasn’t been a governor for eight years, hasn’t run for election for twelve years. Bush is the consummate 20th century candidate… in the 21st century.

Can he spend his way to the win, he will have to. That plus knowing how much the American people don’t want his as president it would be an act of love for him to retire from the race and go back into retirement. Or back on the board of blood sucking octopus: Tenant Healthcare Corp. I know they will take him back he spent 8 years as their godfather while pretending to be governor of FL.

The Beatles had the song “Can’t buy me love” – well Jeb, can’t buy me vote. No more Bushes!

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