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Will Hezbollah attempt to capture Metula?

Will Hezbollah attempt to capture Metula?

If it comes to that, it’s all-out war.

After several senior Hezbollah military leaders and an Iranian General were killed in the Syrian portion of the Golan Heights, presumably by Israel, there is plenty of speculation as to when and how Hezbollah and Iran will react.

An article in The Times of Israel suggests that capturing an Israeli town or sections of northern Israel could be in store, as Hezbollah has threatened to do so in the next conflict:

Nasrallah, [Lt. Col. Dotan Razili] said of the organization’s leader, “wants to conquer a city,” perhaps in the Galilee. The border town at the tip of the Galilee’s panhandle, Metulla, he suggested, “is definitely a possibility.”

The army constantly practices perimeter defense and the invasion of enemy strongholds or towns in which the enemy is embedded. It does not, however, drill its infantry soldiers in the practice of taking back an Israeli town seized, in its entirety, by enemy forces.

“The main element is to lessen the shock and make sure they’ll act,” Razili said, noting that no Israeli village or town has fallen since Kibbutz Nitzana, in 1948, “and the trauma of that endures till today.”

Longtime readers may recall my trip to Metula in the summer of 2013, where I reported on the vulnerability, Metula and the fake Hezbollah village, including maps and photos showing the geography:

(Metula, Israel - Map View)

(Metula, Israel – Map View)

(Metula, Israel - Street Map View)

(Metula, Israel – Street Map View)

(Hezbollah fortifications overlooking Metula, Israel)(photo Hadar Sela 2013)

(Hezbollah fortifications overlooking Metula, Israel)(photo Hadar Sela 2013)

Most interesting to me was the “fake” Hezbollah village just next door:

Aadaisse, Lebanon - close up

(Aadaisse, Lebanon)

More details at the original post.

Already the Israelis are jittery in the town, sending tank reinforcements and heightening alert:

While life continues as normal in northern Israel despite the high tensions in the area, seemingly routine incidents can cause alarm. The Metula security squad was deployed to the Israel-Lebanon border on Tuesday morning after a convoy of civilian vehicles drove on the Lebanese side of the border, waving Hezbollah flags and firing their weapons into the air.

It later transpired that this was a funeral procession from Khiam in southern Lebanon.

The IDF said it was monitoring the incident, but that it had no bearings on Israel. Residents in Metula said the incident was unusual because Hezbollah usually does not allow firing near the border.

So would Hezbollah try to capture Metula in response to the attack on the Hezbollah and Iranian commanders?

My guess is not as part of a tit-for-tat. More likely rocket firings and attempted kidnappings, or attacks on Jewish and Israeli targets abroad.

Because an attempt to capture an Israeli town like Metula would be the start of, or result in, all-out war.

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Comments

JusticeDelivered | January 23, 2015 at 7:08 pm

The essence of war has always been to inflict enough property damage and loss of life that the opponent cries uncle.

Clearly, the amount of damage that Israel currently inflicts is not great enough to stop their enemies from continuing their attacks.

I can no imagine any country putting up with all the crap which has been inflicted on Israel.

Maybe it is time for Israel to to greatly increase the severity of their responses. Perhaps they should start fuel-air bombing any area which is used to attack them?

Subotai Bahadur | January 23, 2015 at 8:01 pm

If Hezbollah does this, Israel has to know that not only are they fighting alone, but that the US regime will be doing their best to protect Hezbollah. I commend to all the piece The Three Conjectures by Richard Fernandez of BELMONT CLUB.

http://belmontclub.blogspot.com/2003/09/three-conjectures-pew-poll-finds-40-of.html

While it is all worth reading, I draw attention to the Second Conjecture. Written in reference to the West as a whole and the US in particular, it does scale down to Israel. And yes, Israel has the capability to accomplish it.

Barry Hebdo better hurry up and get Iran the bomb before Israel repels an invasion once and for all.

Maybe that idiot John Kerry can get James Taylor to serenade Iranian troops while they’re on the march.

And while all this goes on, maybe that other idiot John Boehner can start work on getting Obama’s 2016 ten trillion dollar budget passed.

An all-out war will be something quite different once Iran goes nuclear. Which will be, what, weeks from now?

I can’t picture the Palistinians sacrificing so many of their soldiers for such a dumb attack that is certain to fail and wipe out the attackers, but then again, I’m sane. If they’re looking to make a stupid gesture, or purge a bunch of fanatics in their midst, maybe.

A wise precaution would be to run ground penetrating radar sweeps in the area. Counterflooding a few tunnels discovered with propane and a match would be a logical second step.

    David R. Graham in reply to georgfelis. | January 24, 2015 at 2:17 pm

    Did you look at this terrain? It’s not Gaza, it’s up north, hill country. Geographically, the Israeli village/town sits at the bottom of a well with an enemy peering down at it. Except that the village has very capable flying bugs swirling out of the well and onto the peering enemy, the village would be doomed. In fact, it would not have been built.

David R. Graham | January 24, 2015 at 2:11 pm

So they want to pinch off an Israeli salient, and they have elevation on it. Textbook bye bye salient. Minus Israeli air domination they probably could. Add Israeli air domination they probably could not. For them it would be a question of resupply. And it is unlikely Israel would allow them just to position their order of battle unanswered. So as long as Israeli air remains this side of Multi-Culti/PC, I’d say Metula can carry on in peace, and, by the looks of their fields, is doing.

    I’m pretty sure that Israel has MOABs, which would end the life of their berms and everything under them to a depth of about 30 feet or so.

    The Israeli air force does not have to cross the border or even be within view to devastate the countryside on the other side. Of course, they might have to ignore the faux outcry over also whacking those ‘innocents’ who cheered and danced on the streets on 9/11.

    Personally, I think Israel should hit Iran hard if there is any border attack. When they are done crushing Hezbollah, they should seed the entire area with mines and warning signs for about 10-20 miles past the border.

(looks at Google Maps) Oh. Good point. Sounds like this would be a good place for ‘territorial concessions’ in the event of an attack, with the surrounding highlands placed into a ‘permanent buffer zone to prevent future attacks.’

That is, if the P’s are stupid enough to attack.

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