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Wisconsin breaking for Walker? Marquette shows 50-43% lead

Wisconsin breaking for Walker? Marquette shows 50-43% lead

Republicans are more motivated to vote, and that may be the difference.

The Marquette Law School final poll was just released, and it shows Scott Walker with a 50-43% lead among likely voters:

A new Marquette Law School Poll finds Republican Gov. Scott Walker leading Democratic challenger Mary Burke 50 percent to 43 percent among likely voters in the Wisconsin governor’s race. Another 3 percent say that they are undecided or that they do not know whom they will support, while 1 percent say that they will vote for someone else. Likely voters are those who say that they are certain to vote in the November election.

Among registered voters in the poll, Walker receives 46 percent and Burke 45 percent, with 4 percent undecided and 1 percent saying that they will vote for someone else….

The previous Marquette Law School Poll, conducted Oct. 9-12, found the race tied among likely voters, with the candidates holding 47 percent each, while 48 percent of registered voters supported Walker to Burke’s 45 percent support.

The poll also found Republicans more motivated to vote:

“Shifting turnout intentions have provided most of the dynamics of the race this fall,” said Marquette Law School Poll director Charles Franklin. “While the results among all registered voters have varied between a tie and a 3-point Walker edge, the likely-voter results have ranged from a 2-point Burke advantage to the current 7-point Walker lead.”

In the current poll, 93 percent of Republicans say that they are certain to vote, while 82 percent of Democrats and 75 percent of independents say the same. Two weeks ago 82 percent of Republicans, and 80 percent of both Democrats and independents, said that they were certain to vote. By comparison, in the final Marquette Law School Poll before the 2012 gubernatorial recall election, 92 percent of Republicans, 77 percent of Democrats and 84 percent of independents said that they were certain to vote.

This is a significantly stronger showing for Walker than other recent polls. If Marquette’s enthusiasm numbers are accurate, turnout may be the difference.

Update: Charlie Sykes, Wisconsin radio host, says not so fast:


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Of course, the problem is not likely voters, but less likely voters. Which is why the Dems beat the polls in 2012 – their GOTV effort translated enough low and no information voters into Dem votes to overcome the Republican edge in likely voters. (And, this doesn’t even consider the level of voter fraud, which we are seeing more and more of).

I did my part. I took advantage of the start of early voting last week Monday and cast my votes for the Walker/Kleefisch/Schimel ticket.
Even if I weren’t conservative there’s absolutely no way I could vote for Mary Burke and John Lehman, a dilettante and a convicted draft dodger.
I’ll be spending election day driving several older voters to the polls to vote for Walker. As Election Day approaches the polls are now starting to show what we’ve known on the ground for several weeks.


#waronwomen no doubt. They made her lie, those diabolical Walker supporters.

    JimMtnViewCaUSA in reply to Ragspierre. | October 29, 2014 at 3:17 pm

    Other than the reason for leaving the company (fired by her own family) and the state she left the company (losing money and low morale) all the other stuff was true.
    Well, OK then.

Calypso Facto | October 29, 2014 at 3:09 pm

Not so much “breaking” as “staying consistent”. Walker won by 6% in 2010 and 7% in 2012 and the constituencies lines have been clearly drawn the whole time. Not many Wisconsinites “on the fence” when it comes to Walker.

Virtually all the close races are going to break Republican. People are massively fed up with Obama and the current direction of this country.

Walker/Cruz or Cruz/Walker in 2016! Watch the ‘rat heads explode!

I’m an “official” poll watcher. Assigned to a school on the fringe of campus, but deep liberal area. Was really hoping to either be right on campus, in mid-Milwaukee, or one of the border counties where vanloads of union employees with Chicago Bears clothing were found voting(with ID like Bed, Bath & Beyond “Occupant” mailers). I am very concerned with voter fraud, machine miscalculations, etc. They realize this election is the last without voter ID and will do anything to pull out the win.
Have a relative that works at Trek and she has said from the beginning that there must be a “story” about Burke, as any employees from her era, just shake their head and say “not good”. Glad to see it hit before the election and not next week.

    HappyWarrior in reply to WI4Walker. | October 29, 2014 at 4:21 pm

    I live in Racine County so I’m familiar with Illinois voters, especially how they swayed the last WI Senate election of John Lehman over Van Wanggaard. But it will be difficult to closed the gap between Walker and Burke through fraud.

The dead don’t respond to polls, but they are very motivated to vote [Democrat].

I’ll keep my fingers crossed, but I’m afraid that in many places the shock after election day will be ours.

The cigarette packs have not even started to be distributed yet. They will provide some with the motivation to go down and vote.


The public isn’t that fickle. And political ‘momentum’ going into an election is myth, as Nate Silver has demonstrated.

There were just a couple of intervening polls with bad samples. It happens all the time, but polling ‘science’ doesn’t want us to realize it.

On the Sean Trende chart, in recent cycles, a candidate with a 7 point lead, 7 days from Election Day went on to win… 100 percent of the time.

Also notice candidates with a 4% lead go on to win about 90% of the time.

Henry Hawkins | October 29, 2014 at 6:21 pm

With a win, Walker sits very high on my short list for 2016. What he has done in ice blue Wisconsin is nothing short of amazing.

NC Mountain Girl | October 29, 2014 at 8:13 pm

I have to wonder if the heavy handed ways of some of Walker’s opponents might be making life difficult for pollsters. If I lived in Wisconsin I doubt I’d be candid to any pollster who called. Maybe if the caller ID said Rasmussen or Gallup. But if it was “caller unknown” I’d probably lie.

During political season I pick up on all calls. I also have a notepad handy and take down the name of the firm and all the questions if it is a poll. I then e-mail my county chairman and the candidates I am supporting with what I learned about who is polling and what they are asking.

    Henry Hawkins in reply to NC Mountain Girl. | October 30, 2014 at 12:15 pm

    ^^SAVE THIS^^ people!

    This is exactly why NC went GOP after 150 years of Dem rule, grassroots efforts. The individual thing needn’t be ‘big’ – it’s the accretion of thousands of little things like this that bring substantive change.

    NC is improving fast. Voter ID (2016), taxes cut, budget balanced, teacher salaries increased, fracking begins next year, Castle doctrine, and NC just got moved from 47th to 16th on the list of states most ‘tax favorable’ to businesses. 200K jobs added.

    I do similar things and I’ll be adding this one, too. you go, Girl!