Last month we started writing about the mounting support for Scottish independence. Depending on which poll you read and who you listen to, an independent Scotland is either imminent or a pipe dream.
Saturday, YouGov released a poll showing the pro-independence movement with a lead over the British loyalists. Although the “yes” votes only had a two point lead over the “no”s, this marked the first time the independence movement had polled above their competition. And there was much rejoicing.
Just last night, another poll was released with the opposite results. According to the Daily Record:
The Survation survey of 1000 Scots showed 47.6% plan to vote No a week tomorrow with 42.4% voting Yes. The poll was carried out between Friday evening and Tuesday morning.
The news will come as a major relief for Better Together boss Alistair Darling, who has been accused of presiding over a “disintegrating” campaign after a bombshell poll on Saturday night put the Nationalists ahead.
While it means the referendum result is still on a knife edge, it may signal the Nationalist momentum built on the back of other narrow polls may have peaked too early.
With the race tightening with just seven days to go, observers had widely expected the poll to show a lead for the Yes campaign as Survation has consistently put Yes support higher than other pollsters.
Survation shows women less likely to vote for independence, finding, “48.5% of women are now planning to vote No compared to 38.6% who will back Yes,” a statistic that appears to be consistent across polling data.
Scots will vote on the referendum September 18.
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