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Scottish Independence Referendum in a dead heat

Scottish Independence Referendum in a dead heat

The end of the “United” Kingdom?

Last month we started writing about the mounting support for Scottish independence. Depending on which poll you read and who you listen to, an independent Scotland is either imminent or a pipe dream.

Saturday, YouGov released a poll showing the pro-independence movement with a lead over the British loyalists. Although the “yes” votes only had a two point lead over the “no”s, this marked the first time the independence movement had polled above their competition. And there was much rejoicing.

YouGov Scottish Independence Poll

Just last night, another poll was released with the opposite results. According to the Daily Record:

The Survation survey of 1000 Scots showed 47.6% plan to vote No a week tomorrow with 42.4% voting Yes. The poll was carried out between Friday evening and Tuesday morning.

The news will come as a major relief for Better Together boss Alistair Darling, who has been accused of presiding over a “disintegrating” campaign after a bombshell poll on Saturday night put the Nationalists ahead.

While it means the referendum result is still on a knife edge, it may signal the Nationalist momentum built on the back of other narrow polls may have peaked too early.

With the race tightening with just seven days to go, observers had widely expected the poll to show a lead for the Yes campaign as Survation has consistently put Yes support higher than other pollsters.

Survation shows women less likely to vote for independence, finding, “48.5% of women are now planning to vote No compared to 38.6% who will back Yes,” a statistic that appears to be consistent across polling data.

Scots will vote on the referendum September 18.

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Scotland is a dying country. At current birth rates the population of Scots will drop to 25% of current levels in the next 100 years.

    Nothing personal, but those statistics are always junk. If the population really declined and economic opportunities rose and the cost of child raising appeared lower (i.e. not having to finance a full university education for any kind of decent life) the birth rate would shoot up because parents would make different choices. There’s usually two sources of “panic”: the middle aged who can’t wait another couple of generations for patterns to change, and those who cry that massive third world immigration is required to redress the situation (not mentioning the situation they have in mind is the “North-South” imbalance).

    This canard is raised every other week against Japan, but Japan’s a hard place for a lot of people to get decent work and enough money to marry a girl and have kids right now. Ordinary human beings, not being complete idiots, respond to such stimuli.

      MattMusson in reply to JBourque. | September 11, 2014 at 3:01 pm

      Certainly things could change over the next century and the pattern could change. But every industrial nation that has birth control on demand has seen their rates plummet. Only the USA and Israel are anywhere close to replacement levels.

      Interestingly enough – many 3rd world nations are experienceing this drop. Women in Tehran recorded the largest birthrate drop in history – going from 8 births to 1.5 births in only 20 years.

        MouseTheLuckyDog in reply to MattMusson. | September 11, 2014 at 5:36 pm

        In the past new technology killed off old jobs and created new jobs, but now it’s mixed with new technology eliminating jobs( like fast food automation ).

        So decreasing birth rates in more technological areas goes hand in hand with decreasing job openings. Makes a nice balance.

MouseTheLuckyDog | September 11, 2014 at 12:23 pm

Scotland can’t leave the UK.
Where would the UK get it’s deep fried curly wurlies?

    TrooperJohnSmith in reply to MouseTheLuckyDog. | September 11, 2014 at 2:07 pm

    I can see Queen Bess II leading an army to invade Scotland. Wouldn’t that be a sight? Her horsefaced son at her side.

    OR… maybe QEII offers that same idiot son to Scotland as its first post-independence king, so that her much more likeable and not nutty-at-all grandson can succeed her.

    (Imagine: Monty Python voices)
    Chas: “Ay, but Mum! I don’t want to move to Scotland! Eet’s too bloody cold an’ Camilla ‘as cold feet!”

    QEII: “Awwww shut-up and pack your kit! Just take a ‘ot water bot’le with you! An’ don’t take me good towels!”


JimMtnViewCaUSA | September 11, 2014 at 12:50 pm

The UK establishment will pull out all the stops to make sure the vote fails. Too bad: without Scotland, England would become more conservative. And without subsidies, Scots would have to drop their leftie predilection and become more rational.

The Royal Bank of Scotland and LLoyds announced their intent to move to England if the referendum is approved. Maybe that’s why the polling has turned around somewhat. No country wants to have an economic downturn, and forcing companies to leave the country for greener pastures is one way that can happen.

Quarter Pounder, anyone?

TrooperJohnSmith | September 11, 2014 at 1:58 pm

If Scotland leaves the UK, the Cross of St. Andrew will be removed from all the Union Jacks. What an ugly flag this will create. Also, those nations who have a Union Jack on their flags, such as Oz and Kiwi and even Hawaii, will also have to change their flags!

Note to Buzz-Killers: Yes, I know, the OZ, NZ and HI flags will probably be “grandfathered” but the notion seems funny.

    Maybe there’s a shadowy flag-manufacturing interest behind the Yes campaign.

    BannedbytheGuardian in reply to TrooperJohnSmith. | September 11, 2014 at 9:16 pm

    NZ conservative PM has already decided this is to be his party’s next election platform ( Scotland yes or no ) .

    Australians are more laid back because most cannot even recognise the difference between an Oz or NZ flag .They might think – eh something is odd ( the missing Southern Cross ) but it takes a while . I myself had to peer at a little flag put on my hotel table once . Not sure when I figured it out.

    I would say Australians ( not the stupid PM ) support Scotland . Can’t see what the fuss is about . We did it 2 centuries back & things turned out ok.

If Labour is like our Democrats it won’t matter how many actual people vote for independence.

What currency will the new Scotland use?

Surely independence precludes using another nation’s currency, with no sovereign control over its value. And to enter the EU as an independent nation, they would have to adopt the euro.

It’s idea conceived after too much sampling of aged whiskey.