Recently the Cook Political Report moved my home district NY-23 from Lean Republican to Likely Republican, leading us to ask, Is “Red-to-Blue” Dem challenger Martha Robertson knocked out?

More evidence of Robertson’s problems comes from The Washington Post’s Election Lab / Monkey Cage blog, which gives Robertson just a 2% chance of winning:

NY-23 WaPo Election lab ao 8-7-2014

I know, I know, it ain’t over until it’s over.

But the question remains, for how long will national money keep pouring in to help a Democratic challenger in a Republican-majority district who has so little chance of winning based on the evaluation of every single independent election analyst?. (Hover over the district in the link to see all analyst ratings.)

NY 23 Election Rating Map Capital ao Aug 6 2014

Also, there’s a wider national significance.

Robertson also has run towards, not away from, Obamacare. That doesn’t seem to be working out for her. Other Democrats beware.

Robertson also is a “Red-to-Blue” Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee designee, meaning that she has the highest priority for being able to turn a red seat (like NY-23) into a blue seat.

If a top priority Democratic challenger is floundering so badly, what does that say about Democrats national congressional chances in November?


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