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Obamacare supporter Martha Robertson has just 2% chance of winning (#NY23)

Obamacare supporter Martha Robertson has just 2% chance of winning (#NY23)

WaPo analysis consistent with consensus — A harbinger of national Democratic problems in November?

Recently the Cook Political Report moved my home district NY-23 from Lean Republican to Likely Republican, leading us to ask, Is “Red-to-Blue” Dem challenger Martha Robertson knocked out?

More evidence of Robertson’s problems comes from The Washington Post’s Election Lab / Monkey Cage blog, which gives Robertson just a 2% chance of winning:

NY-23 WaPo Election lab ao 8-7-2014

I know, I know, it ain’t over until it’s over.

But the question remains, for how long will national money keep pouring in to help a Democratic challenger in a Republican-majority district who has so little chance of winning based on the evaluation of every single independent election analyst?. (Hover over the district in the link to see all analyst ratings.)

NY 23 Election Rating Map Capital ao Aug 6 2014

Also, there’s a wider national significance.

Robertson also has run towards, not away from, Obamacare. That doesn’t seem to be working out for her. Other Democrats beware.

Robertson also is a “Red-to-Blue” Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee designee, meaning that she has the highest priority for being able to turn a red seat (like NY-23) into a blue seat.

If a top priority Democratic challenger is floundering so badly, what does that say about Democrats national congressional chances in November?

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Comments

Please dems / libs keep sending $ to martha! M P A ! ( money pissed away )

A harbinger of national Democratic problems in November?

Let us hope so.

If the #Dems send me the money I’ll start another blog just for her- fair and balanced to the extreme.

Eastwood Ravine | August 8, 2014 at 9:57 pm

A little of topic, but there was a blub over WHO radio that one group is predicting Joni Ernst in Iowa has an 80% chance to win the seat. If that holds, and the probability is accurate, there is no reason the GOP, couldn’t get to a 56-58 majority. Iowa, for the last 26 years, goes back and forth (in statewide races)of being a toss-up and a lean-Democrat state.

    I’m in Iowa and Braley’s campaign is getting downright dirty. We got another campaign letter from him yesterday, trashing Ernst, the Koch brothers and Sarah Palin. Then one of TV ads popped up last night, picturing Republicans in smoke-filled rooms plotting nefarious deeds. Not word one about anything he has done in his six years in DC.

    It’s really pathetic.

      Eastwood Ravine in reply to creeper. | August 9, 2014 at 4:59 pm

      I got the same thing in the mail. Braley is pathetic. Conservatives in the state shouldn’t start measuring the drapes. The Democrats are going to deploy the best ground game as they can muster, likely relying heavily on the College towns in Central and Eastern Iowa. Conservatives need to up their game considerably, because the Democrats think Tom Harkin’s Senate seat is theirs. Maybe Joni Ernst needs to borrow Scott Brown’s “This is the people’s seat,” line when the debates happen in a month or two.

I don’t think Martha’s lack of campaign skills, policy acumen, and general intelligence is a sign of national mood. The national mood doesn’t help her, but most of her problem is Martha.

Ernst, OTOH, is in a traditional bellwether state which has trended Democratic nationally in the last 20 years or so. Statewide races are often close, but this is the “Harkin” seat: if ideology or party ID meant much, she would be no more than even odds.

True, Braley is a jerk and people are seeing it due to his own follies. But she may make him look like a lightweight, which wasn’t the conventional wisdom before the primaries.

Incidentally, Ernst was endorsed early by Mitt Romney, well before any major Tea Party names jumped on her bandwagon. Same with Sasse in Nebraska (who is claimed as a Tea Party win in his open primary despite having held no less than four political offices under the Bush Administration).

She does have the kind of face you want to slap.

At least give her that.

You have to feel sorry for Robertson. If she runs as the Ithaca area liberal she is and touts her liberal voting record, she is likely to be clobbered in the other ten counties of the 23rd. That’s a blueprint for defeat. If she runs away from her record, which she can’t sell outside Tompkins, she has to pose as the moderate she is not and deny her liberalism, while she is limited to mythical inventions like “Republican operatives hacked my website,” to attack Tom Reed’s character. That too is a blueprint for failure. The facts are so evident that the reputable political analysts have as Professor Jacobson says pegged her chances of winning as low as 2% (1 in 50). Want to bet or contribute to her campaign on those odds?

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