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Poll: Democrats lose lead in 2014 generic ballot following Obamacare rollout

Poll: Democrats lose lead in 2014 generic ballot following Obamacare rollout

After insurance policy cancellations and the botched launch of healthcare.gov, the political fallout from the rollout of Obamacare seems to be having an impact for Democrats in general and Obama, according to recent polling conducted by CNN and ORC International.

From a CNN post this morning entitled CNN/ORC poll: Democrats lose 2014 edge following Obamacare uproar:

What a difference a month makes.

A new CNN/ORC International poll indicates a dramatic turnaround in the battle for control of Congress in next year’s midterm elections.

Democrats a month ago held a 50%-42% advantage among registered voters in a generic ballot, which asked respondents to choose between a Democrat or Republican in their congressional district without identifying the candidates.

That result came after congressional Republicans appeared to overplay their hand in the bitter fight over the federal government shutdown and the debt ceiling.

But the Democratic lead has disappeared. A new CNN/ORC poll indicates the GOP now holds a 49%-47% edge.

This follows highlights released from the survey early Monday morning that revealed the President’s marks as manager have taken a hit:

Only four out of 10 Americans believe President Barack Obama can manage the federal government effectively, according to a new national poll.

And a CNN/ORC International survey released Monday morning also indicates that 53% of Americans now believe that Obama is not honest and trustworthy, the first time that a clear majority in CNN polling has felt that way.

According to the survey, conducted last Monday through Wednesday, 40% say the President can manage the government effectively. That 40% figure is down 12 percentage points from June and is the worst score Obama received among the nine personal characteristics tested in the new poll.

“A lot of attention has focused on the President’s numbers on honesty in new polling the past three weeks, but it looks like the recent controversy over Obamacare has had a bigger impact on his status as an effective manager of the government, and that may be what is really driving the drop in Obama’s approval rating this fall,” CNN Polling Director Keating Holland said.

Of course, polls change all the time and the 2014 elections are still a long way away.  A lot can change between now and then.  CNN also reminds us of the 2010 midterm elections and what preceded.

“There is just under a year to go before any votes are actually cast and the ‘generic ballot’ question is not necessarily a good predictor of the actual outcome of 435 separate elections,” [CNN Polling Director Keating] Holland cautions.

“A year before the 2010 midterms, for example, the Democrats held a six-point lead on the generic ballot but the GOP wound up regaining control of the House in that election cycle, thanks to an historic 63-seat pickup,” he said.

You can read the full poll/survey and results here and here.

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Comments

Not A Member of Any Organized Political | November 26, 2013 at 10:40 am

ObamaCare Law! Now more hated then the Prohibition Law!

Way to go Regressives!!!

Obama is now at 37% and falling. But Democrats quickly retort their talking point … “yeah but Republicans in Congress are at 10%”. And usually the response is “yes, you’re right, he is still much higher than (evil) congress.” (And of course this is why Obama poses as an innocent bystander and condemns those evil DC politicians, from his throne in heaven.)

But that talking point is not true. Most in Congress get reelected. Only when Congress is generic, without a face, are the numbers so (deservedly) low. “Do you approve of YOUR congressman” is at 44%.

And Obama has more face time and has all of media propping up his personal messianic image, and threatening any that even say they disapprove with charges of racism or ignorance.

But finally the media “allows” disagreement with our black president, and NO, his numbers are not better than your congressman’s. As Obama’s dishonesty and incompetence are revealed, past sins may be revisited, and a period of true enlightenment may begin?

Well … I can hope for that at least. 🙂

    NC Mountain Girl in reply to Midwest Rhino. | November 26, 2013 at 12:17 pm

    The comparison also fails to take into account that many rate the Republicans in Congress’s performance as poor because they feel the Republicans by and large have not been aggressive enough in opposing Obama.

A year is a long time. How many crises can Obama foment in that period?

    Not A Member of Any Organized Political in reply to raven. | November 26, 2013 at 12:30 pm

    and he’s got a long 3 years PLUS to go.

    How many more failures will he have?

    LOTS!

    Musson in reply to raven. | November 26, 2013 at 2:11 pm

    Just wait until sick kids who are currently getting treated – are forced out of CHildren’s Hospitals that are Out Of Network.

    Let’s hear the Democrats explain that away.

The GOP better hurry up with a cave on immigration if they want to turn these poll numbers around.

I’ve never taken congressional approval polls seriously. As implied upthread: everyone hates everyone else’s CongressCritter

when Obama blames congress, he is really blaming his own party. the opposition party in congress almost never gets punished at the polls if congress approval ratings are low, the presidents party takes the hit. when you dig in the the numbers, you see that the presidents party is taking the lions share of the hit. if this keeps up, and it looks like it will with 10’s of millions more in cancellations you could see maybe even impeachment grade changes in the markup of the house and senate.

What’s up next in the Obama circus? Global warming to fan the flames of solidarity? Evolution into polygamous marriages? A trip to Brazil and the Copacabana with Michelle to quell Dilma Rousseff’s fears of being spied upon? Closing Gitmo and releasing more Islamic radicals just for the fun of it? Circus McMurkus!

The shift in politics is only half the story, but I don’t expect them to cover the significance of the other half.

Sure, the 50%-42% lead Dems had has shifted to a 49%-47% GOP lead, but look at how much more polarized the numbers are. The number of undecideds/unknowns/don’t-cares has been cut in half – from 8% to 4%.

It’s long been my contention that “Independent” voters, as a population, tend to be more conservative then most people give them credit for; the reason Indy turnout leans left is because it’s notoriously difficult to motivate disenfranchised conservatives. That seems especially so now with the rise of self-described “libertarians” (both Big-L and small-l varieties) and Tea Party supporters. I believe a “preference cascade” is coming among conservative Independents, when they collectively realize they have enough numbers to tip the electoral scales and start to self-motivate.

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