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House really safe in 2014?

House really safe in 2014?

Guy Cecil is the Democratic strategist who was the hero of the 2012 Senate strategy which resulted in Democrats not only holding the Senate, but picking up two seats.  He will return in 2014.

Cecil, it’s worth noting, points out what people like Kathleen Parker refuse to admit, that Republicans’ failure was as much if not more a failure of establishment Republican candidates:

“We intend to hold the Senate [in 2014],” Cecil said. “No one thought we could hold it  last cycle. Not only did we hold it, we picked up seats. And it wasn’t just  because we had the Mourdocks. Nobody was saying Tommy Thompson was extreme, or  Dennis Rehberg was extreme. We won because we recruited candidates that best fit  their state.”

So when Cecil says the Democrats will not take back the House, it has credibility:

But I would take absolutely nothing for granted.

By 2014, Politico and others will have stopped complaining that they are puppets manipulated by Obama, and will resume full-blown puppetry.


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Yep, they’re just seeding the public record with a few statements about how dismayed they are about being manipulated by Bobo. That way when the history of this disaster is written they can point back and say “See!?! We tried to do our jobs!” What a pathetic joke they are, and the joke is on us.

In my line of work and yours, if we abdicated our responsibilities and flat out lied half as bad as the press is doing we would be fired, sued and probably thrown in jail.

2012 establishment Republican candidates were not only old past prime in thinking and behavior but also in campaign tactics.

We need conservatives with market- and tech-savvy campaigns. Exhibit A — Ted Cruz.

“There’s an old guard in Republican politics, and that old guard is mostly made up of television and direct-mail consultants,” [young Republican new media consultant] said. “And you can say that’s generational — but at the same time, David Axelrod has to be the same age as Karl Rove, right? The old guard in the Democratic Party made the adjustment with the Obama digital operation. There hasn’t been a concerted effort among the established G.O.P. folks to figure this stuff out.”

Oh, I don’t think the Mushroom Media are puppets. Not. At. All.

They are fully autonomous propagandist operations, though they certainly do coordinate their messaging with the other cadres on the Collective.

    Subotai Bahadur in reply to Ragspierre. | February 20, 2013 at 1:02 pm

    Absolute agreement. What they consistently choose to cover, and just as importantly what they refuse to cover, shows that it is an either-or proposition. Either they are merely cogs in the Leftist machine attacking the Constitution, or they are True Believers. I’m going with True Believers.

    However, noting the main subject here; predictions and conjectures about the 2014 elections seem to be predicated on two assumptions that are far from certain. First, in view of the inevitable series of economic and geopolitical crises’ that are looming on this year’s horizon; will there be elections in 2014? The second is, given the Democrats’ mastery of vote fraud sufficient to turn any election, and the Institutional Republicans’ willing compliance with that fraud; will any “election” in 2014 be a real election or a sham?

    Given events today, any discussion of electoral politics that totally ignores those elephants in the room is an exercise in fantasy.

    Subotai Bahadur

The Obama-fandom was more powerful than any House or Senate candidate’s appeal or any actions taken by Guy Cecil and the like. That won’t be the case in ’14. Many of the powerful tools (social media, get out the vote, etc.) will be leveraged. But the near idolatry will not be in play and helping candidates get votes they wouldn’t have gotten otherwise. This time, the Dem candidate will have to win primarily on message, merit, and the usual tactics, sneaky and above board, both. And they will do so in the political environment which will likely be less “enchanting” due to continuing long term unemployment, realities of the new health care legislation, etc.

It’s hard to say given the GOP infighting right now, but I think the situation I described SHOULD be an advantage for the GOP. Of course, other things have to fall into place, too.

“But I would take absolutely nothing for granted.”

Carve it stone, Dr.J.
My “First Law” of television producing:Assumption is the Mother of ALL F*** Ups. Apply that to most jobs and Quintuple it when applied to MSM-Lapdog-LegHumpers & Democrat ‘strategerisits’ and office holders.

I wish a certain Associate Clinical Professor,
Cornell Law School would run:)

    serfer1962 in reply to ClinkinKy. | February 20, 2013 at 1:30 pm

    Hold on there about Carson. Remember how we conservatives jumped at having Powel as our candidate? Or Rice? Just because a black says something Conservative doesn’t mean they’ll work out for us (Powel as an example).

    Let things work out in the next 2 years before we jump.

Maybe the best course of action is for “good” Republicans to resign from the party and join the democrats as “inside” influence.

The Republican party has shown me not much of anything in the past couple of years…

The way things are going, it’ll be a miracle if we hold House.

It’d almost be worth losing it to to finally end the disaster of Boehner being House Squeaker. Almost.

“So when Cecil says the Democrats will not take back the House, it has credibility:”

Does it? Or is this Cecil’s opening strategic move for 2014 – to lull the GOP into complacency?

Phillep Harding | February 20, 2013 at 3:37 pm

If the next vote is as crooked as the last, the GOP will not hold the majority after the next election.

I have no idea how Republicans win any position anywhere. Zero presence, and easily ridiculed positions.

I hope that the House IS NOT safe. After their inability to show any kind of spine, I would not weep if they ALL lost.

The GOP’s own words and actions give democrats reason to be confident. The most important thing to the GOP is to silence and marginalize the grassroots and their elected reps. The GOP is thrilled when Dems win because they can tell us we must be silent. As NPR observed, it was better for Boehner that Obama won: 12/8/12, NPR,”In a paradoxical way, Obama’s re-election victory coupled with congressional Democrats adding to their numbers may have helped Boehner. Some of those wins came at the expense of the Tea Party…whose affiliated House members have been very willing to stand up to Boehner.” The GOP doesn’t care about having the House majority, didn’t want the people we gave them in Nov. 2010. Trent Lott said first order of business was to co-opt new Tea Party members. From alleged GOP Rep. Darrell Issa, 2/10/11, “It wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world for President Obama to win reelection….My goal is to strengthen the president.”