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The end is near

The end is near

Given the news, that could refer to several different issues.

But I mean it with regard to Syria, where almost everyone seems to view Assad’s days are numbered, but no one seems to be sure how many days.  With Iran and Hezbollah at this side, Assad may hold on longer than most expect.

There already is speculation that Assad moved his chemical weapons as part of a final defensive strategy, possibly including a retreat to the Alawite Moutains.

Reportedly there is a fight underway for the Damascus airport:

Rebel fighters in Syria say that they are aiming to seize Damascus airport, saying it is a “fair target”.

Rebel spokesmen say the airport is being used by the Syrian military and that it should be avoided by civilians.

There has been fierce fighting in recent weeks in the countryside around Damascus, known as the Ghouta.

The city’s international airport has been inaccessible or closed to civilian flights repeatedly over the past two weeks.

The Christian Science Monitor examines the aftermath if Assad falls:

Any day now, the world will likely watch as the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad falls to armed rebels. But there is one thing the world cannot afford to watch when that happens: the violent revenge on the country’s minority Alawite sect and others who passively supported Mr. Assad.

Add into the mix the radical Islamists gaining traction in the opposition, Iran, and Hezbollah, and you have the makings of a very touchy situation.

Expectations of the fall of Assad and possible trouble with Iran and Hezbollah, may have been why Bibi Netanyahu ultimately decided against a ground invasion of Gaza.  Israel seriously damaged Hamas in Gaza, and the ground war necessary to achieve the remaining damage was not worth tying up troops given other likely crises.

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Comments

“The future’s uncertain and the END is ALWAYS near.”

Syria is by far the most dangerous threat to Mideast stability and the current situation could unravel very quickly. Consider the presence of nerve and probably biological agents coupled with the makeup of those who are fighting the Assad government and if the past is any indicator, we will have few friends there indeed.

Not only that, I understand that there are some 100,000 Russian military there as well.

Stay tuned for the latest developments…

I was just listening to Krauthammer talk about what may happen. He and others seem to believe Assad will end up dead within the next 90 days or so.
What is more the issue is what next.
I dont see how we can suddenly “deal ourselves in” in that event in a way where we derive any advantage. I mean really there isnt any military option given the Russian interests there.
I suppose in the end it will be a wash. Some other “strongman” will emerge like we saw with Egypt.

    “We” has become an ambiguous term in America because of Obama. Obama is being dealt in because the muslim jihadists will prevail. The rest of “us,” not so much.

I was watching Hillary on FNC this afternoon trashing Assad. I guess FNC and everyone else have forgotten that Hillary said, in paraphrase: “Assad is a Reformer. We can work with Assad.”

That stupidity should hang around her political neck like a mill stone.

The reason Assad has so many of his elite in the military and government willing to fight to the death with him is that most are Alawites. They are an islamic sect, but most other sects like Sunni, Shi’ia, and Salafi don’t consider them muslim, but apostates.

The Alawites are about 10% of the Syrian population, but have been in power since Daddy Assad took power in a coup in the ’70s. They have ruled with an iron fist and been particularly brutal towards the fundamentalist sects that constitute the majority.

If they lose, they are all dead. There will be no quarter, there is nearly 40 years of revenge spanning three generations to be had.

So the Alawites have nothing to lose by fighting on. Few besides Assad himself have the prospect of exile. It is not unlikely that if he tries to leave, they will kill him first, though.

Obama’s stern warnings about nerve gas are laughable, too. These folks aren’t worried about war crimes at the International Tribunal. Heck, right now a life sentence in a posh European prison looks pretty good – if they live that long.

If they are captured, they die a slow and painful death. Are they supposed to fear the Hague because Dutch food is bad?

” Israel seriously damaged Hamas in Gaza, and the ground war necessary to achieve the remaining damage was not worth tying up troops given other likely crises.”

Maybe this is why we spent money and political capital in Libya, so we couldn’t or wouldn’t have it available for intervening in Syria.

Or was it just dumb Hillary and her girlfriends trying to keep the French and Italian oil supplies flowing?

From the CSM: “But there is one thing the world cannot afford to watch when that happens: the violent revenge on the country’s minority Alawite sect…

I read the CSM story and they seem to think that wishful thinking will prevent the slaughter. In fact, the editorial board appears completely detached from reality.

It will be a slaughter.

It does not matter in the end. Tehran is going to get the government it wants in Syria. If not, then there is going to be months, if not years, of bloody civil war in Syria.

Damascus is the new Beirut.

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