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No, mass shootings are not on the increase

No, mass shootings are not on the increase

I told you yesterday that the remedies suggested in response to the Newtown, CT, shooting would be all about the politics.

Demands for bans on assault weapons in a shooting that did not involve an assault weapon [see update], or for greater gun control laws in response to a shooting in a state with gun control laws which were complied with, are based on emotion, not analysis.

The perception that mass shootings are on the rise such that “something must be done,” appears to be emotion not supported by facts, No rise in mass killings, but their impact is huge:

And yet those who study mass shootings say they are not becoming more common.

“There is no pattern, there is no increase,” says criminologist James Allen Fox of Boston’s Northeastern University, who has been studying the subject since the 1980s, spurred by a rash of mass shootings in post offices.

The random mass shootings that get the most media attention are the rarest, Fox says. Most people who die of bullet wounds knew the identity of their killer.

Society moves on, he says, because of our ability to distance ourselves from the horror of the day, and because people believe that these tragedies are “one of the unfortunate prices we pay for our freedoms.”

Grant Duwe, a criminologist with the Minnesota Department of Corrections who has written a history of mass murders in America, said that while mass shootings rose between the 1960s and the 1990s, they actually dropped in the 2000s. And mass killings actually reached their peak in 1929, according to his data. He estimates that there were 32 in the 1980s, 42 in the 1990s and 26 in the first decade of the century.

Chances of being killed in a mass shooting, he says, are probably no greater than being struck by lightning.

Still, he understands the public perception — and extensive media coverage — when mass shootings occur in places like malls and schools. “There is this feeling that could have been me. It makes it so much more frightening.”

The politicians, pundits and bloggers who seek to take advantage of this shooting do those dead children no justice.

Update:  The medical examiner stated Saturday that the rifle was used in the shooting, contrary to all earlier reports that the rifle was in the car and the shooting was with handguns.


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If Pavlov were alive today, the dogs would be replaced by journalists and the bell by audio of gun shots. | December 15, 2012 at 5:15 pm

And mass killings actually reached their peak in 1929, according to his data.

My guess is that there have been mass killings since humans began. The worst school massacre in US history was in Bath, Michigan in 1927, with 38 children and 7 adults killed, and the killer used explosives, not guns. This is an issue for psychiatry and theology, not new laws (unless we’re talking about being able to do something about criminally insane people before they do something terrible).

Well now the “story” has been changed. The ME was on the tube earlier and now the rifle that used to be in the killers car was the murder weapon apparently.
Talk about confused media…

We were also told the kids ages 6 and 7 were shot from 3 to 11 times each.

But find the interview at one of the news outlets. It was on an hour ago or so.

How hard is it to get the correct info? First the media got the name wrong and now the rifle somehow flew from the guys car and into the school. Fox was reporting this latest stuff BTW

Lemme add this as I just read it. If Obama wants to do something meaningful? Consider what Ann says here for starters

Doesn’t matter how crazed you are…if you are staring at the working end of a firearm, it gives you pause to reflect on mortality.

MaggotAtBroadAndWall | December 15, 2012 at 6:11 pm

I have an idea. Let’s have this gun control debate AFTER Obama instructs the CIA, FBI, Homeland Security, Secret Service and every other non-military federal employee to disarm – including the Secret Service that protects him and his family.

Something tells me he understands we live in a world with walls and those walls have to be guarded by men with guns. While Obama finds the existence of those men with guns grotesque and incomprehensible, he wants them on that wall. He needs them on that wall.

We must never lose sight of the plain and indisputable fact that the purpose of the Second Amendment to the Constitution is to afford the citizenry arms to protect themselves against a tyrannical government.

It bears repeating that the purpose of British regulars for marching upon Lexington and Concord was to confiscate a cache of weapons stored by Colonials – in other words, they were attempting to disarm the citizenry such that they would not have the means to defy the tyranny of the crown that they were so loudly protesting.

We have ample evidence that the very government that was established at the conclusion of the American Revolution has itself become tyrannical, operating in size and scope well outside of its charter and of its founding principles

We also have ample evidence that elements within our government are acting affirmatively towards collapsing the government from within through deliberate fiscal malfeasance, e.g. failure to pass a federal budget as prescribed in the Constitution, deliberate quantitative easing of the money supply, deliberate and exorbitant deficit spending leading to astronomical national debt (I could go on and on…).

There is no debate that what happened in Newtown, CT yesterday was a tragedy. So many lives were lost, so many more were irreparably ruined. As has been the case in almost all of the recent media sensations, the media’s initial reporting was wrong and in this case horribly and inexcusably wrong. I would say ‘a pox on their houses’ but they already are diseased and that disease is spreading unto us.

But what is so particularly galling, yet as predictable as the sun coming over the horizon in the morning, is the immediate seizure of a tragedy by those on the left to trumpet their political hobbyhorses – you can look to Michael Moore as an example of this.

And if one decides that one must rise to the defense of the importance of the Second Amendment to the very freedoms that we enjoy, we are shouted down as trying to politicize this tragedy. This, of course, is poppycock.

Yesterday, those who abided by the gun control laws of Connecticut found themselves defenseless and were mowed down by the one who did not abide by those laws. Laws constrain the behavior of those so inclined to live within the rule of law, not those who are determined to act lawlessly.

Guns are inanimate objects, incapable of reason or action. Guns are also an undeniable reality – their presence is a genie that cannot be put back in the bottle. Confiscation would be folly – only law abiding citizens would submit to confiscation (although I would be strongly in favor of civil disobedience – refusing to submit to confiscation as a direct attack upon my rights) and as can be seen in New York City or Chicago (tyrannical governments in their own right), the absence of a law abiding populace bearing arms only leads to increased violence. As the clique goes, “Why do I carry a gun? Because I can’t carry a cop.”

It is my feeling that this is yet another furtherance of DE-humanizing what happened here.

The left, I understand. Nothing better than dead bodies to further an agenda. I get it.

I think we find ourselves in an oh so familiar place.

Reacting to the left, as they assault our senses.

Sure, we all try to separate ourselves emotionally from painful events. Human nature. Survival.

My Lady broke down twice last evening. I stood tall, brave. Not letting my mind go there. In this case, empathy is dangerous to one’s state of mind.

However, the tv was on as I meandered about doing my thing, as I heard a two sentence response from a question to the Medical Examiner.

I broke. Lost it.

I’m thinking we need more time to mourn.

That’s all.

Has everyone forgotten the episode a few years ago where a church had hired an off-duty police officer to handle sucurity, and when a crazy attempted to invade the church, she promptly put him down. We cannot “prevent” violence, we CAN deal with it on the spot if adequately trained and armed. The Israelis have been training and arming school staff for about the last 40 years, after M’aalot and other schools were attacked violently by terrorists. Ignorance is repairable, stupid is forever!

    Browndog in reply to landesmann. | December 15, 2012 at 7:27 pm

    The innocence that are slayed are mourned, buried, and life moves on.

    The guilty that slayed them are housed and fed for a lifetime.

    Sometimes, if you refuse to shave your beard, we won’t even judge your guilt; that would be unjust.

[…] very disturbing aspect yesterday was how quickly progressive gun control advocates were out clamoring for more legislation undermining the Second Amendment rights of the millions of […]

BannedbytheGuardian | December 15, 2012 at 9:11 pm

The most recent Benghazi info has it that NO shots were fired by the ‘consulate ‘ security, They hid during the attack.

They were surprised even though Sean Smith had posted on an Internet site earlier that the Libyan contract staff were acting suspiciously.

I have no idea what the other staff at the ‘safe house / interrogation centre ‘ were but I bet they were armed to the teeth. They did not fire a shot either .

If rumours were true that the battle was screening to DC then they did not fire a remote shot either.

So if these Professionals could not react in the face of an attack then what chance has a minimally trained & armed public school union pissy liberal arts degreed woman teacher cornered in a classroom facing a hail of bullets?

Yesterday I got plenty of disIke’s for suggesting that good people are at a huge disadvantage in these situations & that they would hesitatetoshoot . Would a teacher have shot the Columbine shooters?

If theycan’t manage it at Fort Hood then where ? Certainly not at Camp Bastian where the Matrines had their worst loss in 40 years on Nov 14. The Brits hid Prince Harry so it was not acolyte defeat.

I don’t have an opinion on gun rights but clearly the situation has changed over not just 200 years but maybe 5 to be an entirely different world globally & maybe now domestically

    I think you are comparing apples and whales. At Benghazi there was an attack by hundred or more jihadis and the 2/3rds of the security personnel appeared (absent more information) to have run to save their lives. This is categorically different from facing one enemy. Ft. Hood was a demonstration of the insanity of “gun free zones” where our soldiers were intentionally disarmed.

    Furthermore, the incredibly brave actions of the teachers throwing themselves between the gunman and the children make it clear that, had they the wherewithal, they would have shot that sob without a second thought. Their selfless sacrifice means to me that one can never predict bravery and heroism.

      BannedbytheGuardian in reply to iconotastic. | December 16, 2012 at 12:37 am

      The Benghazi info is the best available but it definitely refers toAmericans not firing their weapons.
      The attackers look to be more dozens not hundreds. Info has 30 Americans being rescued which should have been a match.

      The only official reports are that 7 children have been audited & that they had between 3 & 11 shotgun hits . Nowhere are the actions of teacher /s & staff on record yet. It will take time .

      ALL conservative sites wail on about public school teachers & how pathetic they are ,which is a bit unfair yet here the woman/women have been transformed into Xena & Gabrielle Warriors .

      You have nothing to base that on . You don’t know a thing about them save their ages which iirc are 29 & mostly the others 40 plus. That would be quite typical of Schools anywhere.

      You ate fortunate it was not Islamists like Beslam.

        “You ate fortunate it was not Islamists like Beslam.”

        no disagreement there. Sadly enough, that day is coming as more Islamists are allowed to immigrate to the USA.

        “ALL conservative sites wail on about public school teachers & how pathetic they are…”

        That is both irrelevant and unfair. Irrelevant because I don’t care what you think “all conservative sites” post, it has absolutely nothing to do with my post other than attempt to discredit it by referring to someone else. wtf? Unfair because many oppose the teacher’s unions and the progressive activists who have captured them–not necessarily the individual teachers, many of whom gladly cut the union loose at the first opportunity (e.g. Wisconsin).

        “You have nothing to base that on . ”

        Reports are coming out now.

        Further references to Benghazi should be put on hold until any of the people there speak out publicly.

          BannedbytheGuardian in reply to iconotastic. | December 16, 2012 at 3:26 pm

          NZ Herald ?

          Hey NZ is a pretty place but. I just do not associate it with extra special journalism,

          They do have astrong public school ethos & teachers are held in high esteem. So wishful thinking would be my take

    I think you are comparing apples and whales. At Benghazi there was an attack by hundred or more jihadis and the 2/3rds of the security personnel appeared (absent more information) to have run to save their lives. This is categorically different from facing one enemy. Ft. Hood was a demonstration of the insanity of “gun free zones” where our soldiers were intentionally disarmed.

    Furthermore, the incredibly brave actions of the teachers throwing themselves between the gunman and the children make it clear that, had they the wherewithal, they would have shot that sob without a second thought. Their selfless sacrifice means to me that one can never predict bravery and heroism.

    “Camp Bastian”…”matrines” attacked on Nov. 14. Are you referring to the attack on Camp Leatherneck on Sept 14? You seem to insinuate that the marines were incapable of pulling the trigger to defend themselves.
    15 Taliban attacked and managed to torch 6 Harriers.
    2 marines were killed.
    Marines shot 14 of the attackers to death and captured the remaining one. Unable to fight?
    This information is readily available, should you bother to find out. I have also a first hand description from my son who was there.
    So what’s the relevance of this to Sandy Hook or Benghazi?

    SmokeVanThorn in reply to BannedbytheGuardian. | December 16, 2012 at 11:32 am

    So you profess to be concerned – based on a failure to react by individuals in Libya, whose dedication to those they were hired to protect is quesyionable or unknown – that “good people” would be at a disdavantage in “these situtations” because they might hesitate to shoot.

    And your answer is to continue to eliminate any possibility that these good people could shoot to defend themselves and others.


    What are matrines asks the former Marine.

    Let me add chief there is this thing called ROE and since it is obvious that you’ve never served don’t imply that I lack nerve based on the rules mandated to appease the civilian cowards.

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BannedbytheGuardian | December 15, 2012 at 9:18 pm

Acolyte =. A complete .

Autocorrect is a strange beast.

The media and the thoughtless idiots are all “let’s get rid of the 2nd Amendment”, so I thought I would suggest a few more Amendments to trash. Since a number of legal types hang out here, maybe they can sharpen my suggestions (or tell me I am full of it).

First, let’s limit the 1st Amendment when it comes to spree killings. Once some awesome bureaucrat decides that a killing is a spree killing like this no media or writer can publish on this matter. Eliminate the attraction to becoming famous (infamous) and some of these nutjobs will not do this murder/suicide combination. The advantage is that this will deal with other kinds of spree killings–poison, edged weapons, explosives, motor vehicles. The disadvantage, of course, is that some bureaucrat will decide what we get to read. But at least 1/3 of our citizens would love that world anyway.

Then, let’s limit the 4th/5th Amendments when it comes to mental illlness. Forced institutionalization/medication for potentially dangerous crazies. Criminal charges for caregivers who do not turn these crazies into the State.

So, how would the progressives like them apples?

I don’t know if this has come up, but “tragedy” is not a correct description for Sandy Hook. It’s an atrocity, a crime. Calling it a tragedy makes it sound more like an unfortunate turn of events, a mishap of impersonal forces. This crime had a perpetrator, a whack job named Adam. The focus must be on stopping the next Adam.

Macbeth is a tragedy. Likewise, one could describe the life of Adam Lanza as a tragedy, his abandonment of all humanity. But this isn’t a story about Adam.

Saying “tragedy” allows the left to shift the focus from the perpetrator to the instrument, to guns. Tragedy suits the narrative.

[…] you thought mass shootings were on the rise you would be wrong. That will not slow down the gun control Nazis on the […]

The massacre in CT can be laid at the feet of the our government

Last night it also emerged Nancy was a member of the Doomsday Preppers movement, which believes people should prepare for end of the world.

Her former sister-in-law Marsha said she had turned her home ‘into a fortress’. She added: ‘Nancy had a survivalist philosophy which is why she was stockpiling guns. She had them for defense.

‘She was stockpiling food. She grew up on a farm in New Hampshire. She was skilled with guns. We talked about preppers and preparing for the economy collapsing.’

… Trillion dollar deficits lead to the massacre .. but who is responsible for that ?

    jdkchem in reply to Neo. | December 16, 2012 at 11:50 am

    The doomsday prepper bit is yet another lib-fascist assault on people who have a desire to be self-reliant.
    The other disturbing bit in the article was the “Brother Ryan, 24, an accountant at Ernst and Young, said Adam had personality disorder” statement. That applies to 100% of the population and is a useless factoid.

The CT ME is getting poor marks for how he spoke yesterday from clowns like Piers Morgan and others.
You know? When that becomes the talk from the left it reminds us all of another not so obvious contributor to things like this recent horror story.
For a moment consider things and set aside the gun issue.
Two factors are at work that maybe setting the stage for these events: Somehow these this Adam character have slipped thru conventional cracks in our mental healthcare apparatus often enabled by the silence or denial of family members.
Here we have a kid who we learn is labeled at least as a fairly high functioning autistic individual. I have friends with autistic kids and Ive never seen evidense that suggests they are evil or even capable of planning or carrying out what we saw in CT. I also find it hard to believe a kid like this absent any drug issue/complication suddenly “snaps” and concludes a mass shooting is somehow a valid option. Obviously there was more at work than autism or some form like Asbergers.
For everyone’s convenience, including parents, school systems, and the medical community we rush to hang a tidy label on the kids with these illnesses. We allow some to be integrated with the school population to avoid imagined self image harm associated with being “different”.
This convenience seems to stop any close observation that should go along with any mental illness.

So now we have a mother intent on doing the right thing that removes the kid from school and opts for homeschooling.
A mother neither trained or equipped really to spot other issues. A father that is absent via divorce and a brother that has no contact for at least a two year period.
Adam gets his label as “high functioning autistic” and things seem to stop so far as his mental health issues are concerned. The kid is exposed to guns via his well meaning mother. I can understand the motivation to include Adam in afternoons at the shooting range. Every mother wants to consider her kid “normal” and Im sure denial was at work for the mother. Im sure it never crossed her mind that gun exposure might not be a good idea for an autistic kid most of whom live in what we consider an alternate reality of sorts. For me the medical community has failed here coupled with ill equipped parents unable to look objectively for changes with the kid.
If were going to have meaningful discussions they need to focus on parents and the mental health community and schools.
Something else we should consider is our modern “conflict junkie” society. Its an obvious change since most of us were kids. We were taught to “get along” with others and attempt to go with the flow. Its what was called “socialization” and we learned the tools needed to avoid conflicts.
We live in an age now where conflict is promoted from the President on down. Everything has become a “war” at one level or another.
Atheists complain about cemetary crosses. The President complains about rich people. On the tube we promote conflict with shows like “Whisker Wars” and “Shipping Wars”.
There is no longer a focus on agreed ground. Its become a series of mini fights in an attempt to get our ways.
Read and listen for one day and count the number of “conflicts” that are gloved as diversity or other liberal buzzwords.
No wonder we live in an “on edge” society where mind your own business is brushed aside in favor of conflict based talking points.
Now lay that daily crap on an Adam or any other poorly equipped person and were surprised at outcomes like this?

“BannedbytheGuardian | December 15, 2012 at 9:11 pm
If they can’t manage it at Fort Hood then where ?”

Fort Hood soldiers weren’t allowed carry weapons on the base. Only station police were armed. Just like the school they were defenseless.

Instead of the typical knee jerk reaction the libs at the MSM propaganda machine are routinely prattling, how about we actually propose something meaningful that gets to the core of the problem.

There needs to be a Megan’s Law for diagnosed severe forms of disorders of anxiety, paranoia, sociopathy and schizophrenia who should be known only to the local police. There should be a periodic review of their living circumstance and verification they don’t have access to guns. There should be a zero tolerance rule for these people found with any gun or explosive, they should be locked up in the nut hatch for life unless medical science can prove to society they can be made safe. Unsupervised medicating is unacceptable since they could decide not to take their medicine as often is the case.

This recent mass shooting is now on top of the other high profile mass shootings from Jared Lee Loughner (shooter of Gabrielle Giffords and others) to James Holmes (Batman movie killer) to Seung-Hui Cho (Virginia Tech shootings).

Disarming and making 99% of the law abiding population vulnerable to criminal assault is not the answer. If making the law abiding defenseless was the answer, then Chicago would be the safest place on earth not the most dangerous place, in fact Chicago streets are more dangerous than any street in Iraq before the Surge. It’s the mentally ill who need to be locked up not the guns because sane people don’t do these monstrous things.

And now we have another mentally ill person who was stopped:

Sammie Eaglebear Chavez in Oklahoma with guns and bombs –

A second mass shooting avoided on Friday

So when are mentally ill people going to be put on a leash?

BannedbytheGuardian | December 16, 2012 at 4:11 pm

Obviously Matrines is a typo.

Camp Bastian is the Brit name for Fort Leatherneck.

The attack was Set 14 not Nov 14 – the election month. A crowded calendar of events does confuse even those few trying to make sense of events. I might make a few errors.

Michelle Malkin is one of the few asking questions of Camp Bastion/Leatherneck on behalf of the Families.

Fort Hood is a mess. Things have gone backwards,

In my Benghazi example I specifically refer to American personnel . No americans fired os the latest info.

As for ROE imagine the list that would be handed down by a schools bureaucracy

    Thanks for the reply. Respect and appreciate the approach and attitude.
    5 of them came to a hanger occupied by a few mechanics maintaining helicopters with wrenches in their hands. A while later 5 Taliban left the place at room temperature. All of our boys are here at home today. BTW our marines had easy access to their rifles.

    For good reason the “ROE” for schools would be different. I would expect it to be extremely strict.
    It’s easy for you armchair generals to discuss “ROE” when you’ve never had to decide between not drawing down on someone or landing in the brig.

Also, in their rush tp get attention in the wake of all this we hear from politicians all over urging Federal involvement.
The State of CT can pass its own legislation around assault type weapons next week if it chooses.
Without any help from Obama and others.

[…] about guns.” It is must-reading. Contrary to popular gun-control fantasies, research shows mass shootings are not on the rise. And there is some evidence that both violence and gun ownership are on the decline in the US. Dana […]

[…] about guns.” It is must-reading. Contrary to popular gun-control fantasies, research shows mass shootings are not on the rise. And there is some evidence that both violence and gun ownership are on the decline in the US. […]

[…] No, mass shootings are not on the increase ( […]