A follow up to Hopeless in Rhode Island.
Boston talk radio host Michael Graham writes, DON’T Run, Scott, Don’t Run!
Actually, I have no problem with Scott Brown running in the special election we all expect to have in a few months after John Kerry becomes Secretary of State (could he do any WORSE than Hillary’s done?).
Sure, Scott—run! Have fun! Spend another 18 months or so as a US Senator. Polls show you’d be a very strong candidate in a special election….
ANOTHER $50 MILLION ON A PART-TIME SENATE SEAT!
Because Sen. Brown will not be able to hold the seat in a regularly scheduled election. Not gonna happen. How do I know? Because since 2000, only one federal or statewide Republican has won a special election. ONE. And that was the “fluke” election of Mitt Romney, a guy who couldn’t get 40% of the vote here running for president.
Republicans look at Scott Brown’s high approval rating and say “He’s a winner!” Have they forgotten that Sen. Brown had high approval ratings in November when he got crushed by amateur/first-time candidate/serial liar Liz Warren?
Massachusetts voters told pollsters again and again: “I like Sen. Brown, he’s doing a good job, he really is an independent voice…and I’m voting for the Democrat!” Why? Because this is Massachusetts, and Massachusetts doesn’t elect Republicans.
But Obama won’t be at the top of the ticket in 2014, Michael! You’re right—have you forgotten 2010? No Obama, huge GOP tidal wave, great candidates like Charlie Baker and Mary Connaughton…and Republicans lost EVERY FEDERAL AND STATEWIDE ELECTION.
I’m not trying to be mean, I’m not trying to be negative. I’m simply pointing out what should be screamingly, ridiculously obvious: Massachusetts doesn’t elect Republicans. Period….
Sen. Brown is such a good candidate (and great guy) that he might—MIGHT—be able to survive in a special election. But the GOP just spent $65,000 a day holding a US Senate seat for less than two years. Is it worth it to do it again?
I say … um, …, yes, maybe probably who knows.
I can’t see 18 months ahead. It’s possible I can see June, although I could be convinced otherwise.
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Comments
A Tea Party activist is worth at least ten union hacks. I continue to suspect that Brown’s fatal error was turning his back on the Tea Party after they got him elected in 2010.
After he came out as a Rockefeller Republican, many Tea Partiers would have dumped Brown if he hadn’t dumped them first—but IMHO many would have stuck with him as the lesser evil. However, when Brown’s definition of “independent” is “not giving the time of day to MA conservatives” (whose influence, to repeat, goes well beyond their numbers), that’s a different story.
Elizabeth Warren was the candidate of the radical wing of the national Democratic Party, with the White House in mind. I suspect that a centrist Democrat with MA roots would have good prospects against Brown in future elections.
How many voters in MA will vote along Tea Party lines? The difference in special elections versus regular elections mentioned here are synonymous with the problem. The Dem machine is so well oiled in MA that a Tea Party candidate has less of a chance than a ‘moderate’ GOPer, which still can’t get elected.
To run as a Tea Party candidate would put Brown in Mitt “Severely Conservative” Romney territory. As you say, a Tea Party candidate is unelectable in MA at present.
My supposition is that parts of the Tea Party have become politically savvy enough that Brown could have run with their support though not under their banner.
The world is going to end anyway…
Have an oyster.
Have an oreo!
Go ahead and run Scott Brown. He might get that Senate seat pulled from him like Charlie Brown running for the football. But go for it.
I sent him $50 (from CA) when he ran in the special election. After he proved himself just another RINO, I ignored his junk mail asking for a repeat.
Yes, I know all about the argument that a RINO is better than a Dem. I don’t agree; I would rather have the Dems own it.
You want my money or vote, see if you can find some vertebrae for that backbone.
Face it prof… The whole blue northeast might be in that “death spiral.”
Substance no longer means anything but free utopian stuff is the magic that the now dumbed down public laps up by the gallon.
When they all hit bottom, maybe change can be affected but until that time arrives, the only direction is down…
MA has a lot of problems in common with blue states. But hitting a financial ‘rock bottom’ isn’t one of them. CA and to a lesser degree NY will be climbing back form the brink long, long before MA is nearing the same point. Regardless of how one feels about the state’s politics, history shows there has been a steady effort to cut expenses to match annual revenues. Surpluses are gone, but the outlook is far less bleak than most blue states.
Rather see him run for governor.
I agree with your analysis. It will definitely be a waste of money to support a Brown candidacy. I figure he will probably run and, if elected, serve his time to qualify for a federal pension or enhance his pension if he has already qualified. I like Same Same’s option. All in all, Brown is a waste of time and good money.
I never knew Graham to be such a fatalist. The state elected Warren over Brown with a margin much, much smaller than the same to reelect Obama. Brown had a fighting chance until idiots like Todd Akin and Richard Mourdock uttered their bizarre rape and abortion nonsense. Warren was then successful in painting the ‘extreme right’ colors on Brown, using all of the ‘war on women’ gibberish. He was ahead in polls until that point. You could mark it on the calendar.
The problem Brown will have in a general election will come to a lesser degree from his left than from his right. I’m not saying he is the ideal conservative, nor is he the ideal candidate for MA. But he surely is better than a generic Kennedy, Coakley, Warren, and especially Ben Affleck. (is he even smart enough to learn rules of law?)
Aw gee whiz, Professor…what a downer two-fer. Here in the Land of Lincoln the Republican Party is so entirely moribund. Even our RINO Senator Kirk, who is still recovering from a very serious stroke, doesn’t stand a chance for re-election. The same democrats who protected JJJr. for months will savage him if he tries to run. Seems like a hat trick…. (It’s got to be five o’clock somewhere.)
Come on down to the Dominican Republic — 6 minutes to 5:00 here!
Scott Brown’s father, who was a city councilor in Newburyport, MA for 18 years and whom Brown credits for inspiring him to get into politics, died today of Parkinson’s disease.
http://www.boston.com/metrodesk/2012/12/20/father-senator-scott-brown-has-died/4NGzPlwauQ7y8MlIxle81I/story.html?comments=all#readerComm
I am sorry to hear that. My condolences to the Brown family.
Hell Ya, He Should! Let the duel continue! I can see it now…
Miss Indian, “BBrown like all Republicans won’t sponsor this bill because they hate _____!”
Sen. Brown, “Actually I personally believe it will undermine _____. Also, BUDGET”
18 months of a Republican vote (potentially) against BO’s socialist agenda is worth the $50M investment (especially when the election $$ does not come from me!)
John F’n Kerry (who served in Vietnam) has put out the word that the Benghazi attack happened because Congress did not appropriate enough money to the State Department. I don’t suppose that he would consider Foggy Bottom’s purchase of all those hot burning Chevy Volts just might have been setting the wrong priority.