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Egyptians want stability, but political realities make for rocky road ahead

Egyptians want stability, but political realities make for rocky road ahead

The newly drafted Islamist-backed constitution in Egypt appears to be on the path to approval, but that is doing little to quell the sustained feeling of instability in the country.

Passage is a victory for Islamist President Mohammed Morsi, but a costly one. The bruising battle over the past month stripped away hope that the long-awaited constitution would bring a national consensus on the path Egypt will take after shedding its autocratic ruler Hosni Mubarak nearly two years ago.

Instead, Morsi disillusioned many non-Islamists who had once backed him and has become more reliant on his core support in the Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamists. Hard-liners in his camp are determined to implement provisions for stricter rule by Islamic law in the charter, which is likely to futher fuel divisions.

His liberal and secular opposition, in turn, faces the task of trying to organize the significant portion of the population angered by what they see as attempts by Morsi and the Brotherhood to gain a lock on political power. The main opposition group, the National Salvation Front, said it would now start rallying for elections for the next lawmaking, lower house of parliament, expected early next year.

A series of high profile resignations have added to the tension.

Over the past month, seven of Morsi’s 17 top advisers and the one Christian among his top four aides resigned. Like Mekki, they said they had never been consulted in advance on any of the president’s moves, including his Nov. 22 decrees, since rescinded, that granted himself near absolute powers.

Those decrees sparked large street protests by hundreds of thousands around the country, bringing counter-rallies by Islamists. The turmoil was further fueled with a Constituent Assembly almost entirely made up of Islamists finalized the constitution draft in the dead of night amid a boycott by liberals and Christians. Rallies turned violent. Brotherhood offices were attacked, and Islamists attacked an opposition sit-in outside the presidential palace in Cairo leading to clashes that left 10 dead.

The turmoil opened up a vein of bitterness that the polarizing constitution will do little to close.

The one thing all Egyptians can agree on is the desire for a bit of stability. Unfortunately, the population is bitterly divided on how to move forward, and the current party in power shows little sign of accommodating the increasing number of dissenting voices.

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The lone Christian in Morsi’s inner circle resigned? I’m sure he’ll be all broken up about that for a long time.

Time’s up.

Egypt imports half the calories needed by its people. Its foreign reserves are falling. The ‘elites’ are exporting their own cash and movable assets overseas. Tourism is grinding to a halt as even the most gullible Westerners realize that the country just isn’t safe. Egypt has nothing to export to generate earnings so as to import the food required for its people. It has been kept afloat the last couple of years by cash, some as grants and some as ‘loans’, given to it by the U.S., Europe, Saudi-controlled Arabia, and various Gulf emirates.

Egypt is going to fall apart. It will run out of cash. It will not be able to feed its people. Regardless of whatever ‘constitution’ the people ratify and whoever they install in the presidential palace, Egypt is going to fail.

Now, as a mere American tied to what I’m spoon-fed by the DMM, various blogs and a few foreign sources, I can see this coming.

If I can see it, I would have to assume that somewhere at the Egypt desk at Foggy Bottom, the non-political career types also see this coming. I would assume that they’re dutifully filing their reports upward, and at some point Hillary, Susan and Champ all get the message that Egypt isn’t doing so well. I would assume that the various intel chiefs, the various oversight committees in Congress, and even a few perceptive journalists in the DMM have figured this out. If I can see it, they must be able to see it.

All this causes me to ask a simple question: what are we, the U.S., doing to prepare for the day Egypt fails? Because for the life of me, I don’t see anyone, anyone in our government preparing for that day.

Egypt is going to fail. Then it will explode. When it does it will take the Middle East with it in a way that Libya, Mali or Syria could never do. There will be war and there may be genocide.

What will we do about it?

    Estragon in reply to stevewhitemd. | December 23, 2012 at 2:18 am

    Quite right, the real problem is that Egypt is on the verge of economic collapse and there is practically nothing which can stave this off for long. Even those who were helping subsidize Mubarak in the Arab world will not be so anxious to feed the MB regime.

    When they run out of hard currency and no one will extend them credit for grain, chaos will result. It’s like watching a head-on train wreck from afar: we can see it coming and there is nothing we can do to stop it because they are well past braking distance.

    This may be why the Army has not acted. They are close to the situation and may also realize what is coming. If they bide their time a bit, they will return to power anyway – without getting the blame for the collapse.

BannedbytheGuardian | December 23, 2012 at 1:12 am

The tweets from the US embassy in Cairo were seemingly by a teenage boy down in the basement.

This first came to our attention on Sept 11& went on for s2 months without any oversight by. DC.

They even called Mubarek a dictator.& in your name heralded the Revolution as a wonderful thing. they were making up American foreign policy themselves so much that ordinary Ameican citizens citizens were having to get on & question them.

About 2 weeks ago it was announce that there would be a 2 day delay in their twitter messages.

There is no one at home in Foggy Bottom . It has fallen apart .

gee…. i wonder which side Lurch & our SCOAMF will come down in favor of?

/sarc

A dangerous fraud calling himself ‘Barack Hussein Obama’ is president. The sinister and corrupt Harry Reid controls the U.S. Senate. Incompetent backstabber John Boehner is Squeaker of the House. Union street thugs are on the payroll of the federal government. The Democrat party has morphed into a fascist movement. The American news media has been completely corrupted, and is an organ of the Democrat party. The Obamacare law that will forever and profoundly change our lives for the worse, goes into effect on January 1st.

Egypt?? — The place will be one big prison, rivaling Cuba at its worse.

ShakesheadOften | December 23, 2012 at 9:30 am

So, let me make sure I understand this. The Egyptians elect an Islamist party and they (and the world) are shocked, SHOCKED I SAY, to discover they rule as…wait for it…Islamists?

There are so many in this world who simply WANT to be fooled.

If Egyptians want stability, let them reject Islam entirely. They have two choices: Judaism. Evangelical Christianity.

ISRAEL: Prepare for a lightening-fast preventive war that pushes Egypt out of the Sinai and leaves them crippled and makes the(faux)Palestinian state ‘moot.

I’m thinking 1967 Redux…Hey, just sayin’…

“The one thing all Egyptians can agree on is the desire for a bit of stability.”

As Islam means “peace” it also means “submission.” Once every dissenter is properly dealt with, in submission or dead, then there will be stability and all will live in peace.

By the way, this is the same sort of thinking behind Hope and Change.

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