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Keep hope alive — Boston Herald poll shows Scott Brown up 1 point

Keep hope alive — Boston Herald poll shows Scott Brown up 1 point

The Boston Herald just released its final poll, and it shows a virtual dead heat, with Brown up 1 point over Elizabeth Warren:

The poll shows Brown holding a 49-48 percent advantage over Warren among likely voters, dispelling earlier polls and Democratic claims of a small Warren lead. The one-point lead is well within the poll’s 4.1 percent margin of error.

Brown held a four-point lead among likely voters in a UMass Lowell/Herald poll in mid-September, but the Harvard Law professor has closed that gap as more Democratic voters have moved to her side….

Among the 956 registered voters who responded to the poll, Warren is leading 49-47 percent, but with just a day before the election, the likely voter numbers are considered a more reliable barometer.

Brown is viewed favorably by 54 percent of registered voters, but 39 percent say they have an unfavorable opinion of him, a sharp increase of 10 points from September. Warren is viewed favorably by 50 percent of voters and unfavorably by 42 percent. In September just 34 percent viewed her unfavorably.

While other polls have shown Warren in the lead by 4-5 points, the Hearld poll closely matches The Boston Globe’s last poll, as well as that by the Republican-leaning Kimball Consulting.

This might be why Maybe Mass Senate candidates know something we don’t about polling.


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This might be why “Maybe Mass Senate candidates know something we don’t about polling.”

And it might be why Warren gave that completely unnecessary abrasive reply (“I have plenty of pictures, they’re not for you.”) to an MSM interviewer.


“Warren Pretender-of the Cheating Tribe”

There once was a “middling*” attorney–
Had to distance herself from the “herd”
Of so many hopefuls, with credentials so boastful
She knew she would never be heard.

So she traded her license to practice,
For a “poetic license” of sorts.
She became “part Cherokee”, and then Harvard could see,
She’d appear in “Minority Reports”.

Just this year, though, her “license” was *cancelled*,
By true Cherokee’s who had LOTS of proof,
That her “massive white lie”, just could not justify,
Her false claims—it was all just a “spoof”!

But her training in law had prepared her,
To ignore even truth’s mighty power.
“Doubled down” on her lies, she kept up her disguise,
Trusting she was BO’s “star” of the Hour”.

Well our story’s not ended so quickly,
For the people of MASS must now choose.
Do they elect “the Pretender”, or do they send her,
Back to law school to learn ethics rules!

* Middling = mediocre, second-rate.

Hmmm, money must be tight to run with a poll of registered voters the week before the election! Likely voter screens = more calls to generate a proper sample size = higher cost to polling firm.

But the general experience – in fact, I cannot recall any clear exception – is that polls of registered as opposed to likely voters always skew a couple points to the Democrat. This is presumably because the sort of miscreant who votes Democratic is far too lazy and self-centered to be relied upon his own to get out and vote.

Now, add to this that in Massachusetts the Senate contest is the only statewide race, and only a couple of congressional districts are at all competitive, and the Presidential contest is a foregone conclusion, there may be far less motivation for Bay State Democrats than Republicans and right-leaning independents.

I may have written Brown off too soon, he seems to have a realistic shot if things break right.

BannedbytheGuardian | November 5, 2012 at 2:16 am

You guys need to got outta da cites more offen.

Just like I predicted a Pennsylvania. Surprise I istellin ya the backwoods folk ain”t happy . I cannot say that they will counter the citee smarties but west MA is pissed off.

So one could say, the ‘arrow’ is pointing up for Scott.

Warren must be peeing in her moccasins.

Warren lags behind Truth by a hundred percetage points.

    GrumpyOne in reply to Sally Paradise. | November 5, 2012 at 7:20 am

    Like I said in another post, “Elizabeth Warren has absolutely nothing to recommend her.”

    But the dumbed down MA electorate has other ideas..

I haven’t studied the cross-tabs in depth, but I have to wonder here if much of the variation in polling is due to where the poll respondents live, specifically the Democrats. Suburban/rural Dems (aka. non-“Progressives”)are far more likely to vote for Brown than urban Dems (“Progressives”) are. If you oversample urban Dems, Warren wins…if you oversample suburban/rural Dems, Brown wins. I can see this phenomenon just by looking at yard signs…I’ve seen some yards with Brown signs right next to a sign for their Dem state rep/senator. The problem here is the urban Dems have tremendous enthusiasm for Warren for reasons that I still don’t understand. So this may be all about where the turnout is.

I know where I live in metro south, there has been a huge uptick in yard sign enthusiasm for Brown in the past week or so. There are yards with 2, 3, even 4 Brown signs. Very rarely do I see a yard with 2 or more Warren signs. I’ve always said that yard signs give some indication of enthusiasm levels and it is there for Brown. I also think I’ve also seen a fair number of Romney signs as well, far more Romney than Obama. (Of course you can get the “all in one sign” from Warren…her name, with Obama-Biden underneath it).

casualobserver | November 5, 2012 at 9:39 am

I rarely get into the guts of polls, primarily because there are so many of them, and they are so frequent. Since voter registration in MA is so heavily titled towards unenrolled (independent) by almost 50%, I usually wonder how accurate polls can be if the sampling and/or weighting is too heavily biased towards the parties.

It’s my gut feeling from living and working around the state that the only people who are fully committed to Warren are registered Dems. The unenrolled people seem to favor Brown more. And Brown has put a good deal of effort and money into presenting himself as the least-partisan Senator in the land (by record). For independents/unenrolled types, what could many see in Warren that looks the same? She deliberately comes across as the epitome of progressive politics and her lip service (in an interview?? not sure) to working with GOP types was not convincing.