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Has the dam broken?

Has the dam broken?

Obama is trying to hold back the storm surge.

Presidential race tied in Ohio newspaper poll (sample D+3):

President Barack Obama, 49 percent. Republican challenger Mitt Romney, ditto….

This is a major change from a similar poll a month ago, when Obama held a 51-46 percent lead over Romney.

Minnesota Poll: Obama leading, but Romney sees gains:

… [A] new Star Tribune Minnesota Poll has found that it is narrowing here as well, with President Obama holding a 3-point lead and Republican Mitt Romney making gains in the state.

The poll shows Obama with support from 47 percent of likely voters and Romney earning backing from 44 percent — a lead within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

Last month, Obama had an 8-percentage point advantage in the Minnesota Poll. Romney has apparently cut into the Democrat’s advantage among women since then and picked up support from Minnesotans who were previously undecided or said they would vote for a third-party candidate.

Poll: Obama still ahead in Pa., but Romney up:

President Obama holds a six-point lead over Mitt Romney in a new Inquirer Pennsylvania Poll with just over nine full days of campaigning left for the Republican nominee to make a play for the state.

Obama was the choice of 49 percent of likely voters, to 43 percent who backed Romney in the survey conducted for the newspaper by a bipartisan team of pollsters….

The poll’s margin represents a net swing of 2 percentage points in Romney’s favor since the last Inquirer survey, which found the president ahead 50 percent to 42 percent in the first week of October.

I don’t expect Romney to win Pennsylvania or Minnesota, but the fact that the race is tightening even in blue territory is a very good sign. Ohio a dead heat? That’s also hopeful because of the trend.

This has to help in Iowa, The Des Moines Register endorsement: Mitt Romney offers a fresh economic vision considering the source’s history of endorsing Dems post-Nixon:

• 1976: Jimmy Carter (D) – won
• 1980: Jimmy Carter (D) – lost
• 1984: Walter Mondale (D) – lost
• 1988: Michael Dukakis (D) – lost
• 1992: Bill Clinton (D) – won
• 1996: Bill Clinton (D) – won
• 2000: Al Gore (D) – lost
• 2004: John Kerry (D) – lost
• 2008: Barack Obama (D) – won


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I do think Romney will take Pennsylvania and come very close in Minnisota because ALL polls are using at least the generic presidential election models where the Democrats have typically had a +3 to +5 vote and some are using a 2008 model. I believe those models need to be thrown out and replaced with a 2010 model where Republicans were actually up by +1.

    With the “Voter ID” law being struck down for implementation in this cycle, I don’t think we’ll see Pennsylvania in the (R) column on Nov. 6th. The Socialists in Philly will pull out all the stops to stuff enough fraudulent ballots into the ballot box in order to keep the state a “liberal” state.

    I will be pleasantly surprised if I’m wrong, either because the poll workers actually take their job seriously by checking ID anyway, or by the “bitter-clingers” coming out in force in Pennsylvania’s more rural areas.

    BannedbytheGuardian in reply to iambasic. | October 28, 2012 at 6:11 pm

    I am on record way back on LI putting PA as red. it is a subjective assessment based entirely on Something In The Air. There is a quiet stoicness in the Pa I travelled through that belies the deep anger.

    Of all the Americans I spoke to at length it was Pennsylvanians who were close to tears. others like North Carolinians were simply resolute. henry Hawkins guys.

    I did not visit Philly or Pitts because I did not want to be murdered. I am sure there are nice parts & nice people there but no way Jose.

    How symbolic would it be if Pennsylvania were to be the Removal Guys for 1600Pennsylvania ave?

Oregon. Watch Oregon. I really do think it could go that far.

    NC Mountain Girl in reply to hald. | October 28, 2012 at 2:32 pm

    Oregon has been on my list for a couple of weeks. So has Maine and Minnesota. There is no firewall of a large minority community that will vote 95% Democrat in these states. If you live there you need a car to get anywhere. I am not as familiar with Oregon but I know that in Minnesota and Maine a huge number of voters also have snowmobiles, outboard motors, ATVs, lawnmowers, weed eaters, sno-blowers, etc. etc. That’s a lot of tanks to keep filled at $4/gallon.

I also think Romney will take Penn. We elected a Republican Governor, Senator, and turned the Congress in both houses Republican just 2 years ago.
This is not 2008 and basing the polling on 2008 numbers is not accurate. The pollsters under estimate the enthusiasm and energy of the state wide tea parties and other groups who helped bring 2010 results. Occupy Philly was a complete dud and the far left is angry with Obama and talk of voting for the Green party. 🙂

    BannedbytheGuardian in reply to tazz. | October 28, 2012 at 6:17 pm

    Thanks for that. my impressions of PA were mid 2010. glad to see I am not a lunatic .

I hope it has; that is, the “dam is breaking.” How much longer can we continue with a president who is negligent in carrying out the duties of the office to which he was elected? The undecided voters need to ask, “How many more American lives?” When it comes to accountability “How many more excuses or deflections?” Or, ask yourself “Is this president more interested in ‘covering his a**, then ‘having the back” of the American people?”

Why hasn’t Intrade caught up?

    Ragspierre in reply to perdogg. | October 28, 2012 at 10:16 am

    InTread can be scammed with very little risk.

    It is also open to the entire world, and we know Pres. Not Optimal is very popular with non-(and anti-) Americans.

l suspect Romney will take Ohio. lf not ,would Wisc. ,lowa & New Hampshire be enough? My hope & optimistic suspicion is it wont be that close. l feel the institutional expemplars have become warped & are therefor unreliable.

Sea-change election…flushing the Obamic Decline.

Gird your loins, and be ready to push our people toward the right moves!

Lefties have long asserted that the Electoral College should be scrapped in favor of the national popular vote. Recently they seem a tad…muted…about that point.

That Des Moines Register endorsement should be enough to swing the election here in Iowa to Romney. Like the ProJo, the Register is diminishing but it still carries a lot of weight with Iowans.

A lot of Iowans are embarrassed at having foisted the Grifter-in-Chief and his mooching wife off on the rest of the nation in the 2004 caucuses. They aim to fix that this year. The Register’s endorsement validates their desire to do it. I suspect it may not even be close here in Iowa. This should put the last nail in the Obama campaign’s coffin.


Our Founders would be proud of our progress. Their Constitution (A) prohibits a STATE RELIGION and (B) prohibits any “religious test” for service by officeholders. All those “founders” had different religions, but they AGREED to (1) let everyone worship as they wanted and (2) LIBERTY was for everyone! But they also came to realize that they still needed a benevolent SUPREME BEING who had brought them to this land of miracles to also do something that had NEVER BEEN DONE BEFORE: Bless a pitifully weak “colony” to throw off the yoke of tyranny imposed by the GREATEST ARMIES in the world so that these Believers could have INDEPENDENCE–WE WERE THE 1ST!

IT WORKED. Against all odds, against the Media Whores of the colonist’s day; against the talk of the “elites” who demanded we reconcile and bow to a foreign KING, we gained our freedom with the aid of the God of Our Fathers.

And we call upon them AGAIN, because our elected leader HATES OUR FREEDOMS!

* HE Refuses to protect us;
* He wants to give our freedoms away to those who worship a God of COMPULSION and CONQUEST;
* He has stolen and spent all of our money and borrowed TRILLIONS MORE from our enemies;
* He claims that “the most beautiful sound” is our enemies’ call to a foreign deity and that the “future does not belong” to those who slander the prophet of Islam” See: See, “Obama Recites The Islamic Call To Prayer In Perfect Arabic / The Adhan / Video” at and also see
* He plans to further borrow, stifle our economy, put us into further energy poverty, subject us to foreign gods with theri Sharia laws, and so much more!

So the dam broke, and a new sense of LIBERTY and WORSHIP OF OUR GOD OF FREEDOM FOR ALL sweeps the land. This is a good time to go to the chapel, synogogue, cathedral, or house of worship of YOUR CHOICE, if YOU WANT TO, and worship with AMERICANS of every language, creed, color, and birth heritage. OUR AWESOME GOD IS MIGHT TO SAVE if we call on Him. Then VOTE FOR ROMNEY & RYAN in just a few days.

I’d say with high certainty that the dam is breaking. Has it really broken? Not yet.

The Iowa paper story is HUGE, and for this reason…

as these reliably Leftist newspapers break for Romney, they destroy a awful…and powerful…Collectivist meme: the Right are racists.

That meme cannot be sustained in the minds of normal (i.e., none-hate-twisted) Left-leaning voters when the papers they read endorse Romney.

They are being given permission to think outside the “socially correct preference”, and that will LEAD to the dam break.

MaggotAtBroadAndWall | October 28, 2012 at 12:25 pm

I’m calling the popular vote for Romney based on the most recent presidential approval ratings. Obama’s poor debate performance in the first debate and mediocre performances in the second and third, combined with his lies and obfuscation about Libya appear to have caused his approval ratings to plummet. I don’t see how it is possible for a sitting president to win the popular vote with approval ratings of 47% by one respected national pollster and 46% by another with barely a week before the election.

I’m willing to bet a cheeseburger that Romney wins the overall national popular vote. Not by thousands. But by millions. If you believe approval ratings are a reasonable proxy for votes, Romney is going to crush Obama in the popular vote. McCain won 46% of the popular vote in 2008 and Obama got 53%. That translated into almost 10 million more popular votes for Obama.

I’m not wagering any cheeseburgers on the electoral college vote outcome. Yet. But I will say that after the final votes are counted we learn that Romney has won 53%-54% of the national popular vote, he’ll be submitting a change of address form to the post office requesting that his mail be re-directed to President Romney at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue after January 20, 2013.

“Preference cascade.” It’s happening. And they sense it too. It fills them with dread. There is no telling what awful lashing out this dread will incite (brace yourselves) but I don’t think it will matter anymore.

Sandy ain’t the only thing that’s surging, my peeps!

NC Mountain Girl | October 28, 2012 at 2:44 pm

The Minnesota Poll- a creature of the most politically correct newspaper in the nation- exists for the twin purpose of discouraging Republicans while allowing leftists to continue to enjoy life inside the media bubble. For it to show that race that close makes me suspect it is already a toss up.

While the image of the state is of urban progressives there are a huge number of blue collar Democrats. Those in the northeastern part of the state have more in common with the coal mining Democrats in West Virginia than the trendy leftists in Minneapolis. In 2010 Minnesota’s northeast “arrowhead” elected Republican Chip Cravaack to congress. The major paper in the arrowhead has already endorsed Romney. A huge open pit copper mine that would mean many high paying jobs is currently pending government approval. Open pit mining is an abomination to the urban left that makes up Obama’s base.

If Cravaack wins reelection and Romney takes the state it may mean a big political realignment is underway.

    BannedbytheGuardian in reply to NC Mountain Girl. | October 28, 2012 at 8:32 pm

    I also believe Michelle Bachmann’s bravery in coming out with the Huma Abedin attack openly addressed the Islamic influence in the the Obama admin &. Within Minesota itself.

    it is clear to many now how the Trojan horse of Islam rode in on the Saudi $ machine aka The Clinton foundation for example.

    Antony Weiner let the sham out of the bag. getting married by Bill Clinton – huh.

    I am thinking I should delete this but if eyes are not opened because of politeness then when?

Hearing of the Minnesota Poll reminds me of the guys at Powerline laughing at it years ago. I can’t remember who the candidates were, but the Democrat was supposedly ahead by 15 points or so but “surprisingly” lost the election. The Star/Tribune must be one of the worst shills in the nation for Obama and the left, and that’s saying a lot.

    NC Mountain Girl in reply to Mkelley. | October 28, 2012 at 5:37 pm

    I believe they have hired a new company to do the polling this year so we’ll see if their polls are more in line with reality.

    As for them being shills for Obama it’s far more than that. The Red Star Tribune reporters all seem to be trying to get a gig at the New York Times. They are so relentlessly politically correct I am surprised they don’t refer to Notre Woman University because dame is a sexist slur. At Christmas they will give huge coverage to Kwannza, so much so I have had to explain to friends and relatives in the Twin Cities that it is a bogus holiday created in 1966 by radical leftists and that I hardly ever heard of it the 20+ years I lived in Chicago. They found it hard to believe the blacks I know all celebrated Christmas just like they do.

    Low interest voters in Minnesota really have little idea what is happening because of the Trib’s slant.

When a dam breaks, it starts with a little trickle, a tiny breach that weakens it until KABOOM!

This also describes the “preference cascade” people are discussing. Once people discover it’s “okay” to be against Obama, they will flock to the idea because it is a great one.