All eyes on … Wisconsin
Wisconsin may be the new Ohio, according to Scott Rasmussen:
In Election 2000, Florida was the decisive state in the Electoral College. In 2004, Ohio was the ultimate battleground that put George W. Bush over the top. This year, it might come down to Wisconsin….
If Ohio goes for the president, Romney has a few perilous paths to victory available to him. All require him to carry Wisconsin and its 10 Electoral College votes.
The simplest path without Ohio would be for Romney to win Wisconsin, Colorado and one other swing state. It’s plausible, but an uphill struggle.
A Rasmussen poll released today shows a dead heat at 49% each. Three of the last four polls show it within 2 points.
I’m hoping the Republican enthusiasm from the recall victory in Wisconsin together with a native son on the Republican ticket can pull it out. We need some electoral insurance.
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This is as amazing as it is INFURIATING.
The Democrats are all-in. I read a news story in which Ann Romney says something like “Mitt’s soul will be at peace,” whether he wins or loses. Glad to hear that, Mittster. You’ll go home and resume your life of privilege; the rest of us will have to deal with an increasingly authoritarian Obama as we careen down the road to one-man rule.
Tea Parties? No match for the media, apparently. Enraged Americans? No match for the Democrat cheating machine.
Romney conceded the entire summer to Obama’s attack ads in the battleground states. As a result, it looks increasingly as though we’re going to lose Ohio.
We have probably the worst President ever. And the Republicans are having trouble beating him?
Risible. Contemptible. Unacceptable.
Win or lose, as close as this is, the Republican Party in the (for once relevant) words of George Will, needs to go out of business.
Calm down, you need to stop getting your information from the MSM. Romney is going to win and it will not even be close. I agree that the Republicans could be a bit more aggressive, but from my research and studying, Gov. Romney and his campaign have done just what they needed to do. There is no need for fear, it’s a done deal.
I really do not understand what you are seeing or hearing to come to this paroxysm of Eeyore-ism.
The Obamic campaign poured treasure into negative ads, as you say, that did not move the polls at all (or very little). What they were selling was incinerated in Denver as the actual Romney drubbed the actual Obama.
Things are going well!
The fountain of negativity is from personal assessment.
A number of things are reminiscent of 2008 on our side:
— The way we’re minutely parsing polls, looking for а GOP advantage;
— The closeness of the polls; Dem skew down from high single digits to 5 or 6, and it’s still very close;
— The huge struggle of getting enough electoral votes, against the worst President EVER. It shouldn’t even be close now. But it is.
“It shouldn’t even be close now. But it is.”
By what standard? Yours and mine?
But Kulhifornia and New York are populated by Collectivists. Deal with it!
What you are saying is that people should think right. Wul, OK. Granted…ish. Reality is that people are NOT thinking right in all cases. They never will.
Do you believe…fundamentally…that Americans are dominantly a stupid people? Because I don’t. 2010 showed us that most of us will pull our hand off the hot stove!
If you feel that way then why on earth are you here instead of out knocking on doors somewhere?
Fair question. I live in California, I’m unemployed, and I can’t afford to pay my way to someplace to volunteer.
Dude! No wonder you are down.
Rise up. Gird your loins, and get thee to Texas! Or even Oklahoma…
As long as Obama’s poll averages remain below 50%, Romney is winning. Whenever you have undecideds this late, about two-thirds or three-quarters of them aways break for the challenger, always away from the incumbent. So, if you see numbers lie this:
Take 4 pts and give to Romney
Take 2 pts and give to Obama.
You end up with Romney 53% / Obama 47%.
Historically, it is virtually automatic that an incumbent still in the 40s late in an election goes down to defeat.
All is well. Romney is ahead and still rising, slowly, steadily, the way it looks when it’s real. Now, buck up and fly straight, Mark! No more histrionic meltdowns! We’ve been over your eeyorism before!
Hi, Henry Hawkins!
Hi, CalMark — let me reiterate what our friends here are saying.
Have no fear. It isn’t close. Not at all.
Obama is way below 50%. Analysts are clear that if the incumbent is below 50%, as Newt said last night with Greta van Susteren last night “On The Record,” that’s called LOSING.
There are all kinds of ways to combat fearful eeyorism. Read Hillbuzz for Kevin Dujan’s anti-doom post each day. He’s fabulous!
Go to redstate today for “Why Obama’s Toast” — with graphs!
Follow links at InstaPundit and get the facts.
The MSM is playing on your fears. Things are about to get way way way way way better.
This election result is what Glenn Reynolds means when he talks about the “preference cascade” — this phrase comes from a book Glenn recommends —
when there’s a totalitarian state, the dictators lie to the people and suppress free speech in order to make each person feel that he or she is the only one who sees the lies and disaster. There is a widespread preference (for this to change) but it is suppressed by lies and silence.
Then some big event occurs and the truth comes out and everyone understands all at once that VIRTUALLY EVERYONE agrees with them — and things change, seemingly very quickly, and this seemingly quick “shift” is called a preference cascade — but it’s not a shift. It’s a result of the distortions caused by the lies and silence of the ministry of truth.
That’s what the MSM and the ridiculously over-democrat-sampling polls have been doing now in this election.
To see the truth, look at how RR are ahead with independents. RR can’t be that far ahead with independents and lose the election.
So drop you eeyore fears, CalMark, because RR are winning and winning big. Look at the photos from the Colorado rally from a few days ago. Read “Why Obama is Toast,” and study the charts. Huge advantage R. Huge shift: and Obama built that!
Don’t worry, CalMark. The great and wonderful people of this country are about to repudiate the lame, leftist, totalitarian tactics of the past 4 years.
CalMark, first off don’t believe these polls, they are getting better, but still not accurate. Romney/Ryan are way ahead. Second, don’t believe what the Eeyore Republicans are saying about them. It’s good that you come here for some information, look at other sites like this for more accurate information. Whatever you do, don’t go to RedState, Erik Erickson is one of the biggest Eeyore Republicans out there, trying to suck the life out of guys like you and I. Definitely do not read, listen too, or watch anything from the MSM, it will only depress you. I’m from California too, and unfortunately, there isn’t much hope that we will go for Romney, but, miracles can and do happen, so who knows? Keep your chin up, good luck with finding employment.
There you go, great advice. Plus…. come January 21st, 2013, CalMark and almost there will be running California. It’s all set up. Congratulations, people.
2008: D+7 2012: R+1
Romney even with women
Romney up big with indies
Romney up big with enthusiastic voters
Romney up big with men.
It’s not even going to be close.
Here’s something you can do from home to help. I am a very shy person and have never made calls like this but I’m going to do it. They even give you the script. We all need to keep up the pressure.
Or go to http://www.teapartypatriots.org/callnow/
Assuming Mitt gets the big 3 southern states, New Hampshire, and Colorado, Nevada and Iowa give him the win without Wisconsin or Ohio.
I wonder how many elections it will take for Wisconsin voters to get their point across.
thank you, Valerie. Good question. Plus, how many leftist, over-reaching judges may have to be removed from office.
Oh, and one more thing: the Democrats are defending 20 Senate seats this time around. TWENTY. Their big pickups from 2006.
In this economy, with the kinds of creeps the Democrats have running, with the President THEY own, we can’t make a net pickup of four stinking seats?
I don’t think the GOP is this incompetent. I think they’d rather lose and remain on the same corrupt, Washington ruling-class tax-and-spend-and-regulate road, than have us pesky peasants constantly pressuring them to reform and limit government.
You may be right. We’ll need to rattle the Repub’s chains from time to time, once they get to WashDC. They may or may not be virtuous without “a little encouragement”.
Now, don’t get cocky, be sure to vote, keep up the pressure and so on but that said, check out this terrific Gallup poll. On the one hand they say the demographics (proportion of age groups and racial makeup of the electorate) has not changed since 2008 so Obama is good to go. On the other hand, check out the percentages for Dem vs Repub, and Dem+leaners vs Repub+leaners for 2008 vs 2012.
2008: 39(D) vs 29(R) D+10
2012: 35(D) vs 36(R) R+1
What to watch for in Ohio: True the Vote has done two major things. The first is work with the Sec of State to identify 490,000 dead or non-eligible voters so that the Sec of State could remove them from voter rolls. About 1/3 of those were from Cuyahoga County (Cleveland). This makes voter fraud that much more difficult.
The second is to recruit poll workers and poll watchers. Ohio Law calls for one D and one R to be at each polling station as workers, but in heavily D areas (and presumably in heavy R areas), one of each have not been there. R’s have responded well, so there will be far more R’s involved in heavily D areas than in past elections.
The end result of this should be less voter fraud, and likely a big loss of votes in Cuyahoga County. Thus, if the vote is down big in CC, you can credit voter fraud efforts as well as reduced enthusiasm among D’s.
I am an R working at a heavily D polling station. I am one of hundreds that are the first line of defense against voter fraud. Wish us well. I predict a 2% margin of victory for Mitt in Ohio.
I’ve read numerous blogs and news sites and get the impression and from people who comment that are from these battle ground states that people are simply lying to pollsters. They say they’re going to vote for Obama, but in actuality the opposite is true.
It’s going to be a landslide for Romney.
I find the UnSkewed polls quite interesting.
179 Electoral Votes Obama/Biden
I’m skeptical yet hopeful about the predictions the October 25th electoral college prediction at UnSkewed Polls. If that scenario is true, I’d expect the final count to go upward of that by at least 1 more: Maine’s “Republican” district that is apportioned separately. So it could be 178 Obama/Biden, 360 Romney/Ryan.
I’d like to believe you. But that many people lying, to skew the polls to this extent? I hate to say this, but I’m beginning to detect some “whistling past the graveyard” on our side about this issue.
The simple fact is that Romney had a concerted strategy to a) not go on the offensive until a month out; b) limit attacks on Obama because of Obama’s alleged “likeability.” It appears that his strategy isn’t working.
Our biggest problem is that Obama (or any Democrat) starts with 84 electoral votes automatically in the bag: New York (29) and the big prize, California (55). Then there are a couple of other almost-can’t miss states: Minnesota (10), Illinois (20). That’s more than 40% of the electoral college right there.
By contrast, the GOP is assured (for now) of Texas (38) and some of the smaller states, but far less than the 40% automatically in the Dem column.
When Republicans conceded California, they made the GOP road to the Presidency ridiculously difficult. That is why, in this conservative country, it is becoming almost impossible to elect a Republican President.
“It appears that his strategy isn’t working.”
Using what for information?!?! They are polling even in likability.
Do you see the import of that?
“…it is becoming almost impossible to elect a Republican President.”
This will come as a shock to Presidents Dukakis, Gore and Kerry! 🙂
Another viewpoint is that it is easy to elect a Repub Pres since this is a center-Right country. There are some headwinds due to the press (“Dem operatives with bylines”) and there was a one-time glitch due to McCain (wasn’t he, in large part, chosen by crossover votes by Dems in open primaries?)
Romney just made ad buys in “can’t miss” Minnesota. Ignore the polls sponsored by the Minneapolis Tribune because they are laughable. Other recent polls have Obama up by only 2 and remember that Obama only beat his national average in Minnesota in 2008 by one percentage point.
There are three main Democrat bases in Minnesota, Minneapolis, St.Paul and the northeastern Arrowhead, which includes Duluth. Minneapolis is one of the most PC cities in the nation so Obama will hold that. St. Paul, which took its name from the first Catholic Church in the region, remains a very Catholic city. Obama will still win there but by a smaller margin than in 2008. The arrowhead may be another story. The real stunner of 2010 was Republic Chip Cravaack’s upset over 18 termer Jim Oberstar. Obama’s energy policies are devastating to residents of this region’s internal combustion engine lifestyle. Check a driveway in the Arrowhead and you are likely to find multiple cars, a snowmobile, a boat with an outboard motor, an ATV, etc. etc. But principally this is also mining country. Approval for a new open pit copper mine that would create a huge number of jobs is now pending. Obama’s urban supporters loath open pit mines.
Media buys in Minneapolis/St Paul in nat’l elections are usually as much about rural western WI as MN – Minn/St Paul is the only large media center broadcasting to rural west WI.
The Duluth News Tribune endorsed Romney this week. Keep in mind that a huge chunk of the Duluth media market is in northwestern Wisconsin. While that area of Wisconsin has long been a Democrat bastion in 2010 they sent Republican Sean Duffy to Congress.
Take nothing for granted. Keep sending money, if you can, even a few dollars will matter in these last days before the election.I have already voted and I’m ready to GOTV. I have sent more donations this morning even though I couldn’t really afford to. They weren’t huge, but even a few dollars could make a difference. Keep trying to convince those who might still be on the fence to vote for Romney and other Republicans. Don’t let up, don’t give up.
[…] All eyes on … Wisconsin (legalinsurrection.com) […]
I don’t think there’s any doubt in my mind that Romney is going to win. What bothers me are the lousy Senate campaigns the Rs have been running across the country –I just think the talent level is very low. How many of our people are going to get trapped on the abortion issue? This election is about JOBS….
I believe the tide has turned on abortion. A situation & fear for most women is infertility & the need for Ivf.
“WISCONSIN FOR FREEDOM—ROMNEY, RYAN, AND THOMPSON”
[The Deliverance of Joshua Glover. Today, a new form of slavery quietly shackles us—will Wisconsin allow this to happen, after such a glorious past?]
Let us return to a terrible day,
A time we did not forget,
The vice of slavery tainted us then—
A fact we came to regret,
But WISCONSIN led a valiant charge
For the good, the fair, and the free
And it stands TODAY, as it stood back then,
As a bastion for LIBERTY.
From a captive cage in a brutal place,
Joshua Glover made his run,
And with God’s own speed he headed North
Seeking the Liberty of God’s Son,
But at RACINE, he was tracked and snared,
To return him to the Devil’s fate,
Until the PEOPLE’S FURY ROSE,
And, WISCONSIN helped him escape! (1)
He was smuggled across the border,
He became a brand new man.
But the people did not end it there—
They finished what they began!
They did not rest till their courts declared
The Fugitive Slave Law was DEAD (2),
In the winning fight for freedom’s rights,
WE SALUTE, WISCONSIN, WHO LED!
We have left behind that difficult time,
When our Nation was wracked and torn,
By an evil practice by evil men,
Who claimed souls before they were born.
BUT THIS TYRANNY, HAS ONLY SLEPT,
Dear God, it has risen again!
It still strains and strives, with vicious lies,
To enslave both bodies and spirits of men!
(1) Joshua’s 1852 flight from St. Louis, his capture at Racine, his freedom at the hands of Sherman Booth and a mighty mob of Christian Abolitionists, and subsequent hidden passage to Canada via the underground railroad IS THE STUFF OF LEGENDS—it’s all true, and you can see markers in Milwaukee and elsewhere commemorating his thrilling deliverance. Take time to visit (and stay in) Wisconsin—the people are friendly, the fishing is fantastic, industry is picking up big time, and a clean pure spirit of FREEDOM IS EVERYWHERE—as seen in the recent tumultuous VICORY OF SCOTT WALKER. Fair laws, honest contracts, and and end to UNION SLAVERY is working miracles. PRIVATE ENTERPRISE GIVES US FREEDOM; “trickle down government is slavery”.
(2) Joshua’s escape became the basis for a civil suit, which was resolved when the Wisconsin Supreme Court voided the Fugitive Slave Act. Later, Wisconsin sent 91,000 of her finest sons to fight for liberty with the Union Army in the Civil War. THIS IS A STATE STEEPED IN LIBERTY FOR ALL—from labor union despots (Walker’s win again) and…even from the new slavery of economic tyranny, a foreign cult’s war upon America, and Presstitutes who enslave us in IGNORANCE.
It shall not stand—WISCONSIN SHALL, AGAIN, SHOW THE WAY!
Slavery now, here, directed from the White House?
YES: We, our children, and their children are enslaved to TRILLIONS IN WASTED DEBT
YES: We are shackled by a complete lack of competency, vision, capability.
YES: “Obamacare” enslaves all of us to its dictates…and the “death panels” are forming.
YES; He enslaves our troops with betrayal, treason, and fear—Dear God, they kill themselves!
YES: He has enslaved the Presstitutes, the Media Whores, the “public news media” [NPR]
YES: He enslaved our BENGHAZI martyrs—unto death.
SO MUCH MORE…SO MUCH MORE…CAN YOU NOT ADD TO THIS INFAMOUS LIST?
ARISE, AGAIN, WISCONSIN. LEAD US AGAIN WISCONSIN…TO FREEDOM.
Do you hear us Racine? Are you up to a challenge after so long?
Do you hear us, Milwaukee? Do you still have the blood of the Patriots and Abolitionists?
Do you hear us, Madison, Green Bay, Kenosha, Appleton, Waukesha, Oshkosh…and so many more beautiful places with good hearts and strong faith. WILL YOU AND YOURS BE FREE?
ROMNEY, RYAN AND THOMPSON FOR THE REPUBLIC
Fix bayonets; advance to the Voting Booths! JOIN US, BE PART OF THE WIN!
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The same demo operatives who were predicting that 1 month before the Wisconsin recall election that scott brown was going to lose by two points were saying that The Won was up +5 a month ago. Those same demo operatives were saying that the recall election was too close to call 2 weeks before the recall are now saying that the WI race now is too close to call.
Don’t believe them. Go look at the interals of all those polls and you find the same thing all the time. That this election will match or be better than 2008 for the Dems. That is totally and completely insane as 2010 midterms and the recall election showed. Turnout will be no worse than 2004 at D+3 and more than likeli, given the pew and Gallup polling on likely voting preferences more like D+1 or shocker D+0.
If you really want to get into the weeds on the internals, I suggest dave in FL. His analysis is quite good.
Oh yeah, i forgot
Ride right through them, they are as demoralized as hell!!!!
For sheer entertainment purposes a scenario where Romney loses Ohio, NH, and Wisconsin, but takes Colorado, Iowa, and Nevada would leave the race tied at 269-269.
That would send the election to the House of course, where every state delegation gets one vote, and would give Romney a 29-16 win in the house (with 6 delegations tied or too close to call) with 26 votes needed to win.
Imagine the apoplexy.
Wisconsin owes us big time. we here at Li have spent many hours maybe even days & weeks of our lives worrying about Wis,
When I tell people I have been studying polling results from the Wisconsin Supreme Court & whether Judge Prosser will hang on , I am greeted with stares of disbelief,
But there ARE. Turning points in history. Did someone slightly familiar stand on a podium in Wisconsin & say GAME ON. Mr President?
Wisconsin, we conservatives in Texas were all with you during the many recalls. That was the topic every day here. We are with you now.
(Shoot low boys they are riding shetlands).