Another bad unemployment report
The U.S. unemployment rate was rose to 8.3% in July and a broader measure ticked up to 15%, even as the economy added 163,000 jobs. Why the increase?
The key reason is because the two numbers come from separate reports. The number of jobs added — the 163,000 figure — comes from a survey of business, while the unemployment rate comes from a survey of U.S. households. The two reports often move in tandem, but can move in opposite directions, especially in months such as July where there are big seasonal issues at play. This month, the household survey was telling a darker tale than the poll of establishments.
The unemployment rate is calculated based on people who are without jobs, who are available to work and who have actively sought work in the prior four weeks, and that number was up by 45,000 in July….
This month 150,000 people left the labor force, lowering what is known as the participation rate. That can lead to a drop in the unemployment rate if people previously unemployed leave the labor force. The drop in the labor force even as the number of unemployed grows can be worrying, and indeed there was an increase in discouraged workers in July.
A further worrying sign came in the count of persons counted as employed, which fell by 195,000 last month.
James Pethokoukis notes (w/chart below):
Only in a world of lowered, New Normal expectations was the July jobs report anything less than another disaster for U.S. workers. Nonfarm payrolls rose 163,000 last month as the unemployment rate rose to 8.3%. In addition, employment for May and June was revised by 6,000 jobs.
– Not only is the 8.3% unemployment rate way above the 5.6% unemployment rate that Team Obama predicted for July 2012 if Congress passed the $800 billion stimulus plan. It’s way above the 6.0% unemployment rate they predicted if no stimulus was passed.
– This continues to be the longest stretch of 8% or higher unemployment since the Great Depression
– If the labor force participation rate was the same as when Obama took office in January 2009, the unemployment rate would be 11.0%.
– Even if you take into account that the LFP should be declining as America ages, the unemployment rate would be 10.6%.
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Despite MSNBC’s attempt to sell the numbers as something positive (Job engine revs up) there is simply no real way to spin this as good. Were moving in a wrong direction.
If we read at Zerohedge and elsewhere we see the reality isnt pretty.
Obama cant even say “moving in right direction”.
That fairytale is over.
A modest prediction…
In the few days after the election (assuming Obama is turned out) the mood of the nation’s consumers, business leaders, and investors will have COMPLETELY changed.
Not to say that it will not take a while to recover from the disaster that is the Obamic Decline, but you will see it begin immediately.
Hope and CHANGE !!!!
Part of the Romney sales pitch has got be a play to the notion, well maybe more a reality, that Obama can’t “play” with Congress very well. If it looks like the Republicans are going to take the Senate (and hold the House), can America really take 4 years of “I Won” from the White House ?
Romney needs to have an ingrown toe-nail or a bad tooth, so he can get a little bit ornery. Perfect example is this whole Harry Reid thing. Mitt comes back at these dripping, nasty accusations of Reid’s in a nice, even, well-spoken response.
After Reid invokes Mitt’s dead father as being ashamed of his son, Mitt had carte blanche to hammer that dirty old SOB, but he didn’t. If he’s not careful, that ‘wimp’ label is going to be applied by the reporters and talking-heads of the
Fourth EstateFifth Column.
In fact, if Mitt so chooses, he could pull Reid before LDS Elders and discuss this according to the tenets of their common faith. Then, we’ll see if Reid serves Obama or God. (I have a friend who is Mormon, and he had a problem with a fellow LDS member, who was engaging in some shady business practices. They resolved it accordingly.)
The entire national mood will change the next morning. It will be that fast. Systemic improvements will take longer but in terms of state of our spirit, it will be like a fever breaking.
I seem to recall it did something similar in 1980 after Jimmah was summarily dismissed.
Hurry, January 20th.
I won’t win the Nobel Prize in Economics for this formula, but I take every statistic published by our Pravda media and our corrupt Government, and if it’s “bad” I double it, and if it’s “good” I halve it.
Joseph Goebbels is sitting in the fires of hell, cheering on the modern day Democrats and their complicit, lap-dog, Fifth Column media. Alter Joseph can spend eternity roasting to a golden-brown perfection knowing that his idea spawn is alive and well in America of 2012.
Yes, we have become, The Chicago States of America. Obama Über Alles!
Aren’t we missing the real point here? Ann Romney rides a horse!!
LOL It’s a good thing candidates “families are off-limits.”
I thought the real point was Chick-fil-A?
She rides a horse in her $600 shirt.
While Princess FLOTUS has to make do wearing a $7,000 coat.
And $600 sneakers at a soup kitchen!
A coat I could understand eg Chanel Langerfield – one that would be smart for 30 years.
However it was a bejeweled little top with cap sleeves.
The WH has no etiquette advisors amongst its Gen Y sycophant staff..
1- you never wear jeweled clothing r ostentatious jewlery when the Queen is present.
2- Ladies cover their arms.
3 -No see through skirts.
This was an official reception where there is but ONE QUEEN.
Part of the mystery of the [f]unemployment rate is that the BLS has this fudge factor called the “Net Birth/Death Model” that estimates the number of jobs that small businesses are creating/destroying to make up for the slow rate at which this sort of data comes into the BLS.
Bingo. BLS assumed 52,000 new company formations in July 2012, versus 5,000 in July 11 and 6,000 in 2010. That results in an upward adjustment of 429,000 jobs. So in truth, we probably saw a reduction of 266,000 jobs.
So, the government said 2+2=5 and Reuters and AP agreed.
Call me cynical and paranoid, but could this be a ruse?
They’ve been “gaming” the stats for a long time now.
Figures don’t lie, but liars do figure. Are they doing one last build-up of the rate preparing for September and October, when the rate will miraculously drop by a half-point!
You read it here first.
I’ve been thinking the same thing for three years.
That graph is getting very scary!
The stock market recognizes the bad news, but is thinking it means Bernanke will throw more stimulus money on the fire, with some form of QE3. So the market soars on hopes more funny money will make stocks worth more, valued in less valuable dollars. Borrowing and printing wealth to distribute to cronies and favored causes is like burning the furniture to stay warm.
Our savings are being stolen by our government, with this inflated money supply. But US currency is holding up for now, since big money fears Europe will burn first.
The link on MSN’s home page reads “163,000 jobs added in July”. If you go to the money tab, the headline is “Stocks rally as US adds more jobs than expected”.
Since soon after Obama’s inauguration, I have been saying that the economy would tank again because all the things the Dems did are job-killers; none were job creators. The stimulus provided a very short-term boost to the economy but, like a sugar high, the economy is now crashing. Look for the news to get worse before election day.
My prediction = Romney 55, Obama 45, ±2
Another factor is the seasonal GM furlough which happens in July. The numbers factor the forloughed workers as a seasonal adjustment since they go back to work when the lines get refitted for the new models. This year, however, GM did not furlough any workers. I think they are double counting them in the seasonal adjustment. Can somebody check that?
In my small upholstery business customer mood gets worse and worse. I get less and less calls ,fewer people pull the trigger. The bills keep coming. The mood is worse than it was 32 years ago.
Obama’s tried his plan and it is working.
The legacy press will latch onto anything… anything… that they can spin to Obama’s benefit. Just as they will latch onto anything… anything… about Romney that they can spin negatively.
The former behavior will continue to get worse over the next 3 months. The latter behavior will continue to get worse over the next 3 months and become standard after Romney’s election. Without any doubt.
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It is a good thing our President concentrated like a laser beam on jobs (in between fund raisers and his sports interests). I can’t even imagine what those numbers might be like if it wasn’t for his concentrated efforts. We are fortunate that he is a genius who can immediately put his finger on the problem and then push for tax increases on the producers and the employers. We realize that won’t put any food on our tables or provide jobs but we will feel better knowing they are suffering, losing net worth and being forced to cut back on their greedy businesses. This can only strengthen the middle class as they are knocked down a few pegs to our level.
As soon as I get my welfare check I am going to think about donating to Obama’s campaign. My plan is to buy lottery tickets and when I win everybody will benefit because of my taxes. Then I will send Obama a few bucks so he can continue his outstanding performance as president.
Pretty soon we’ll need to rotate that chart 90 degrees clockwise.
“In response to the jobs report out today, some are praising President Obama for allowing more Americans to enjoy more time at home and with their families. However, there is blistering criticism from some, who are likely associated with the Tea Party, who wish to deny their fellow Americans the chance to spend more time with their families even though they claim to be pro family.”
Brian Ross ABC News Classically Trained Professional Journalist reporting from Obama’s lap.
OoooOOOOoooo Mr. President! I can feel that you liked that report. Heh, I guess that at least one stereotype about Black men is true.
Huh? What do you mean the mic is still live!!!!! Is there a teabagger in the control room trying to destroy me? I wanna know and I wanna know now!!!!
“Why Private Job Creation is Even Slower Than it Looks”
“But Alan Tonelson, research fellow at the U.S. Business and Advisory Council, said the number isn’t as good as it looks because the heavily subsidized health services industry generated 38,000 jobs, or more than 22 percent of the total …
” … Since the recession, as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research, ended in June 2009, such jobs have accounted for 1.144 million of the total 3.384 million private sector jobs created.
That means that the non-subsidized private sector generated 2.24 million jobs — considerably less than the more than four million positions President Obama trumpets on the campaign trail.”
Oh, good grief! 8.3% unemployment is a wild exaggeration vastly overstating the truth and I’m not going to take it anymore. The White House has had to correct this propaganda this morning – the true July unemployment is 8.254%. So, take that all you Chick-fil-A sandwich clinging scare mongers.
Um, this might need a sarcasm thingy. /sarcasm
I see the latest spin. Obama only needs 316,000 more jobs created to be back to where things were.
Its so laughable that a serious reply isnt needed.
^^Here. From the fiction department at CNN
JOBS: HE’S GETTING CLOSER
12:46PM: The U.S. needs 316,000 more jobs to get back to where it was when Obama was sworn in. More
A great comment with interesting breakdown: http://polination.wordpress.com/2012/08/03/the-friday-grudge-44/#comment-18298
ITookTheRedPill says at link,
The the BLS.gov data shows that the current Civilian noninstitutional population is 243,354,000.
If the Employment-population ratio right now was back to the average of what it was under the Republican majority for 12 years, that 63.3% applied to our current population would mean that the number employed should be:
243,354,000 * 0.633 = 154,043,082 people should be employed
However, the ACTUAL Number Employed in the Civilian labor force in July 2012 was = 142,220,000 people actually are employed
So how many missing jobs are represented by that Obama level of employment (58.4%) as compared to the 1995-2006 Republican average level of employment (63.3%)?
154,043,082 – 142,220,000 = 11,823,082”
The fact media wont mention when they spin the 168,000 jobs created as some big deal is this:
Everyday, 125,000 people turn 21. You can verify that yourselves.
So do the math in your head..around how many may be in school or entering the job market.
Obama can brag forever about 168,000 jobs created but at that rate of increase we will never..I repeat never get below 8%
[…] Utter, Total, Complete Fail Posted on August 3, 2012 1:30 pm by Bill Quick » Another bad unemployment report – Le·gal In·sur·rec·tion […]
CNBC is reporting the actual figures, too: http://po.st/3oDE5s
“Failed Obama policies” should be the new mantra.
A good Friday evening fellow Americans! The plutocrats send their best to all.
Well, it is my pleasure to report that the effort is proceeding according to plan. We have the major TV networks and cable stations and most print media within our fold. Legislatures at the state and national levels are, at our behest, not moving forward on measures to improve the employment situation. Disdain for the government has reached fever pitch which will allow our people to act freely. Voter ID laws are being implemented in more states everyday which is gonna allow Governor Romney to win the election. The plutocracy is holding back between $3 and $6 trillion dollars.
Obama is crippled. He will not be re-elected if the plutocracy has its way and it will! Governor Romney is our candidate not by accident and his challengers were not eliminated by accident. And, Obama’s defeat will not be by accident.
A new brighter day and future for America is coming in January 2013. Rejoice!
just a personal note,money is important in our lives,some people have more than others,and invest accordingly.
if you are more dependent on for fincial stability for day to day requirements,i plead with you to either do some personal research,or if you trust someone that’s finacially educated talk to them.
find out why the worst possible fiscal news can come out in a two week period,and some money news shows,facts are so much different than others.
i just don’t want people to be in the same situation as 2008,when the truth was there but was not widely reported,there were good people who were fincially educated that tried warning people,and were others that were insider educated who made millions, and billions.
i’m not a finacial adviser by any means,but i found the new media and researched and read,i personally trust very few of the figures that get the headlines.
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