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Texas Runoff Results (Update – AP and others call race for Cruz!)

Texas Runoff Results (Update – AP and others call race for Cruz!)

% Reporting – 95.4
Ted Cruz – 56.6
David Dewhurst – 43.4

Texas Sec. of State Election Results page is here.  Twitter hashtag #TXRunoff.  Politico has a map of results by county.  AP Results website is here.

Related post Ted Cruz serves Chick-fil-A at victory party


Sarah Palin issued the following statement on Facebook:

Congratulations to Ted Cruz! This is a victory both for Ted and for the grassroots Tea Party movement. This primary race has always been about the kind of leadership we need in D.C. Our goal is not just about changing the majority in the Senate. It is about the kind of leadership we want. Ted Cruz represents the kind of strong conservative leadership we want in D.C. Go-along to get-along career politicians who hew the path of least resistance are no longer acceptable at a time when our country is drowning in debt and our children’s futures are at stake. The message of this race couldn’t be clearer for the political establishment: the Tea Party is alive and well and we will not settle for business as usual. Now, it’s on to November!

Reports on Cruz victory from NY Times, Wash Post, Wall Street Journal

Texas Tribune calls race for Cruz

9:25 p.m. Eastern — looks like AP has called it for Cruz — still trying to confirm. — Confirmed

Results percentages have not changed much all night, so unless there are some big Dewhurst areas yet to report, it’s looking good for Cruz.

Cruz serves Chick-fil-A at victory party

For early voting, Cruz beat Dewhurst 52.3-47.7

Polls close at 7 p.m. Central Time.

Will update as results come in, but if you hear anything first, post in the comments.


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Nothing objective but…

I feel GOOOD…

According to Intrade, Cruz has it in the bag.

I regularly check Intrade, and I mention it more often than everybody else at LI put together. If Intrade is wrong about Cruz-Dewhurst, I’ll stop doing both.

WFFA reporter Brad Watson tweeted that Collin Co up in north Texas went strong for Cruz.

ALSO, remember that Chuck Skinner’s West Texas does NOT close until 7:00 MOUNTAIN time….

Cruz up by 8%!!!

With one precinct reporting (out of over 7k)

33,998 32,088 66,086 13,065,425 0.50% 43 53 7,957

(Cruz / Dew / total / # of voters / % / prov ballot / precincts reported / total precincts)

MaggotAtBroadAndWall | July 31, 2012 at 8:20 pm

Dewhurst did an interview on Fox Business late this afternoon between 3:00 and 4:00 Central time. I’m not from Texas so I don’t know what his “normal” personality is like, but he seemed very low key, even dejected.

He lent his own campaign something like $25 million, so I can understand seeming to be unhappy if he had reason to believe when he did the interview that he was about to lose the election.

Update: KHOU in Houston also reports an early Cruz lead — 54% to 46%.

Update: Cruz “clobbers” Dewhurst in Harris County (Houston) early voting, 60-39, according to WFAA’s Brad Watson. Wow.

Update: Now a report from Tarrant County (Fort Worth) that Cruz leads there too. You can’t give all these major counties away and win statewide in Texas.

ALL COUNTIES 210,781 191,981
Early 209,356 190,598
Cruz Dewhurts

I voted for Cruz this morning. I’m hoping I never again have to see the Dewhust ad with the mother who blames Cruz for her son’s suicide. it ran over and over again, even multiple times during each commercial break. I spoke with a woman at work who said it was that same add that made her up her mind to support Cruz. Anyone with common sense could see the horrible smear that ad was. if I were running for office you couldn’t pay me enough to run an ad like that.

    Aggie95 in reply to whippet. | July 31, 2012 at 9:26 pm

    I am from the county in which that incident happened ….called Kids For Cash ….a democrat judge was the Juv judge and he was filling a Juv facility he was secretly part owner of ( 2 of them ) with kids he sentenced ….over the last 4 – 5 years we have had close to 40 folks go to the pokey … 3 of them judges 2 of them were Republicans …Cruz came in on the tail end of that case and had little to do with it

      Aggie95 in reply to Aggie95. | July 31, 2012 at 9:42 pm

      sorry ….the 2 Republican that went to the pokey were not judges ….they were school board member and a zoning officer

    BannedbytheGuardian in reply to whippet. | August 1, 2012 at 1:09 am

    I love whippets.

Kerrvillian | July 31, 2012 at 8:46 pm

It seems like only a few weeks ago that the “prevailing wisdom” said that the Tea Party influence was gone.

Now that a another Senate seat is taken away from a Republican party darling I think the narrative was whistling past the graveyard.

Occupy is a flash-in-the-pan astro-turf gathering with no real legs. The Tea Parties are real grassroots and are in the game for the long run.

If the RNC hopes to survive they will need to realize something. They need the Tea Party. The Tea Party does not need the RNC.

    WarEagle82 in reply to Kerrvillian. | July 31, 2012 at 9:29 pm

    Rush talks about the RNC “elites” regularly. The one thing that he hammers home is they absolutely loathe true conservatives. I don’t know that they have to realize anything when you get right down to it…

    Meriadoc in reply to Kerrvillian. | August 1, 2012 at 12:58 am

    Hurray for Texas’ next Senator, TED CRUZ!! The Tea Party is not receding; it is ASCENDANT! Tonight’s elections should encourage everyone keep pulling for conservatives. Let’s make this November a Tea Party November!

AP early poll reporting shows Cruz up with 63 percent in Montgomery County #txrunoff—
ChrisTomlinson (@cltomlinson) August 01, 2012

It just takes so long to nudge the Senate a tiny bit. Conservatives make a win here or there but the establishment co-opts people as fast as we can elect them.

Frankly, the single most important change we could make is to repeal the 17th amendment and let the States legislatures elect Senators. If the majority of the States could wrest control of the Senate real limits on the size and scope of the federal government would be possible.

    Ragspierre in reply to WarEagle82. | July 31, 2012 at 8:57 pm

    Amen to that!

    Popular elections of the Senate are evil…

    punfundit in reply to WarEagle82. | July 31, 2012 at 10:49 pm

    The Sixteenth and Seventeenth Amendments were Progressive Movement amendments.

    The argument was made that by switching to direct popular election of Senators the people’s will would be honored (all the better to enact the populist Progressive agenda). History has shown that precisely the opposite happened. Now, Senators only have to submit to the will of the people every six years. After that, they’re free to ascend to their Beltway earldoms and hold court for all manner of lobbyists and suck-ups. They know they’re untouchable for about five-ish years. John McCain is a shining example.

    But then of course the original idea behind the U.S. Senate has nothing to do with direct representation of the people. That’s the House of Representatives’ job. There’s a reason the entire House is elected every two years (the two-year revolution). The will of the people is based on transient, turbulent populism; the events and issues that shape our every day lives. It is the source of new ideas, both good and bad. It is supposed to be the heart of fiery debate in our nation’s affairs.

    The Senate was supposed to represent the will of the states as represented by their respective legislatures. In this way the Senate *indirectly* represented the will of the people. Senators were supposed to be beholden to their state governments, which were elected by their respective citizens who could go to their local governments with their concerns and ideas. They were to be state ambassadors to the Federal union. They were to be the control rods in the nuclear furnace of Congress (to use a modern metaphor). The states would have their say too.

    The Seventeenth Amendment turned that concept on its head.

      TrooperJohnSmith in reply to punfundit. | August 1, 2012 at 9:14 am

      Finally… a like-minded person who hates 17 as bad as I do. When do we start pushing this? I’m ready!

Henry Hawkins | July 31, 2012 at 9:01 pm

FWIW – Ace Of Spades HQ has declared Ted Cruz the winner:

@tedcruz sweeps the four big NTX counties that Dewhurst needed to win or run very strong. Denton County goes to @tedcruz 62-38.

stevewhitemd | July 31, 2012 at 9:08 pm

Haven’t seen an answer so far to the following question: will Mr. Dewhurst support Mr. Cruz if the latter wins tonight?

    heimdall in reply to stevewhitemd. | July 31, 2012 at 10:42 pm

    Wouldn’t surprise me, most establishment republicans do not support their opponents when they lose because for them it is all about the power and they take their ball and go home when they don’t get their way.

    If tea partiers/small government conservatives win a majority of the seats in the Republican party, I predict that many of the liberal republicans will either retire or outright become independents/join the democrats to snub the “evil right wing” of the party.

MaggotAtBroadAndWall | July 31, 2012 at 9:30 pm

AP calls it for Cruz.

Somebody named Joe Holley just tweeted this quote allegedly from Clemson political scientist David Woodard:

“I think the Cruz victory is historic,” says Clemson political scientist David Woodard. “It reminds me of Rubio.”

    1. Gee, I thought The Narrative prophesies that white RINOs will be displaced by far-left Latinos.

    Demographics, you know. It’s inevitable.


    2. Schadenfreude aside, I bet a lot of people will look very closely at how Cruz does with Hispanic voters.

    Juba Doobai! in reply to MaggotAtBroadAndWall. | July 31, 2012 at 9:41 pm

    Nothing like Rubio. Cruz is actually a Conservative.

Looks like AP has called it for Cruz by about 8%

huskers-for-palin | July 31, 2012 at 9:34 pm

Hey Dewhurst….you can take your deceptive robocalls and shove it!!!!! And to you Dewhurst supporters, GOPe, and MSM giving smack to Palin and Cruz, you can suck it!

What great news. Nothing thrills me more these days than smacking down the Establishment. And Cruz is the genuine article.

MaggotAtBroadAndWall | July 31, 2012 at 9:47 pm

Public Policy Polling tweets:

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls
When we asked Texas Republicans last January who they wanted as their nominee 3% picked Ted Cruz. Amazing comeback story

huskers-for-palin | July 31, 2012 at 9:49 pm

Okay Karl Rove, try to spin this you fat bastard!!!!

theduchessofkitty | July 31, 2012 at 9:51 pm


I knew it! I Knew it!

Y’all know what pushed him over the top… It was Sarah!


    2hearts4life in reply to theduchessofkitty. | August 1, 2012 at 7:27 am

    As I said above, I am so glad that Mr Cruz won. But, after reading some of the comments, it saddens me to see so many comments detrimental to GOP members. Not all GOPs are the old ‘establishment.’ I totally support the Tea Party; they are successfully bringing about needed change within the government. I am hoping together we can create a more responsible govt against the liberal Demagogue, the waste, unaccountablility and dead weight no matter from which party they hurl. Let us work to make America its best it can be for America. God bless America!

[…] to cap off some Tea Party goodness, Professor Jacobson writes that Cruz served Chick-Fil-a at victory party! Like this:LikeBe the first to like […]

Cruz wasn’t the only Tea Party candidate to win. Dr. Donna Campbell upset State Senator Jeff Wentworth, a 19-year incumbent.

theduchessofkitty | July 31, 2012 at 9:55 pm

It was Sarah!


Well, I live in Hunt County, Texas. My wife is somewhat crippled and so we took a long time to vote today. The Democrats and Republicans were at the same long table. By the time My Linda Lou finished there were about eight people lined up and none had signed in for the Donk runoff. Bring on the general election!

Cruz is ahead by a lot now but if Dewhurst has a sudden surge and only loses by two votes, that’s me and my Linda Lou!

Palin helped but this is Texas Tea Party power, not Palin power.

    Juba Doobai! in reply to DRJ. | July 31, 2012 at 11:00 pm

    Where was TTP power before Palin endorsed him? Nice try at dimming her star though.

      I voted for Sarah Palin in 2008 and have donated to her PAC since then. I especially like her values and common sense. But Texans didn’t just vote for Cruz — they also turned out big for other conservative candidates that Palin didn’t endorse.

      In other words, I think this Texas election is more than just one person and endorsement. It could mean Texas is even redder than it already was.

        rodpatrick in reply to DRJ. | August 1, 2012 at 7:26 am

        If you follow your own logic, this is also a win for all “conservatives” and “republicans” in TX who voted for TheWorst. There are more than 40% of them who voted in this run-off.

        Of course, I get your point. You’re using the same unfair spin of Rove, Frum and Krauthammer in 2010 that Palin “barely contributed” in taking back the House.

        One thing for sure. It was Palin who gave the necessary boost to Ted’s campaign when almost everyone including Rick Perry was so against him.

        Let’s call a spade a spade. This is another hats off to Palin for introducing an excellent TP alternative to the GOP-E parasites.

On further reflection, they are important but this isn’t about politicians like Sarah Palin or groups like the Tea Party. This is about Texas voters voting for fiscal conservatism and values.

    Juba Doobai! in reply to DRJ. | July 31, 2012 at 11:01 pm

    Nice try. No cigar. The GOPe would be still ascendant without those two factors.

      I think we’re actually in agreement on this but I have to ask: The GOP would be still ascendant in Texas without which two factors — the Tea Party and Sarah Palin? Or fiscal conservatism and values?

      I think the GOP is ascendant in Texas because of all of the above.


It will be an honor to support him in the general election.

Texas – home of my father – ya’ made me proud (again)! 😀

WE82: “Frankly, the single most important change we could make is to repeal the 17th amendment and let the States legislatures elect Senators.”

Don’t be stupid! Do you really believe the TeaPartiers would have a chance when the state legislatures are infested with establishment politicians? To repeal the 17th would just give more power to the establishment and send the establishment approved candidates to the Senate. You have to change state establishment first before you can touch the Senate. You will get back to the future in which the bosses would decide which candidate would serve them better.

How many in the Texan legislature endorsed Cruz over their buddy, the Lt. Gov? Did the Utah legislature support Roberts or the insurgent who is now in the Senate? How about Rubio, a risky candidate against the Dem in a toss-up state? Do you think the Florida legislature would send Rubio instead of the shoo-in Crist to the Senate? And that affable, loveable Lugar who is so chummy with politicians of all stripes. Oh, that Ted Kennedy’s seat would be Cloakly’s. Don’t forget there are members of the opposition party in the legislature. They would certainly help to send a “bipartisan, moderate” candidate.

Your rationale to repeal the 17th is the conservatives sent to the cesspool will be corrupted. Your solution is to send those who are already corrupted. Why not unelect the stinky ones next time around?

    WarEagle82 in reply to elkh1. | July 31, 2012 at 11:16 pm

    Well, I have given your comments some thought and I have concluded you haven’t given my comments sufficient thought.

And how many know that one of the few Congressional endorsements came from that wonderfully fiscal and Constitutional conservative, Dr Ron Paul (R-14)? The Tea Party has Paul to thank for their intellectual foundation.

This narrow victory for the intolerant TEA Party extremists only shows that their tide is receding, their strength failing, and the movement largely foundering on the shoals of reason. The path to victory is clear for the GOP and it does not include such extremists. — Karl Rove, “The Architect”

Cruz is up by 12% at 11:30 with 81% reporting.

I wondered if he could maintain his earlier lead. He almost doubled it as the night went on. But rest assured, the GOP establishment will draw the wrong conclusions from this event…

The AP currently shows Cruz up 57-43 with 96% of the vote counted. The Democrats and Republicans both had rufoffs and turnout for both is over 1.2 million, which I think is around 8-10% of registered voters. If so, that’s bigger than prior runoff elections in Texas, where turnout was around 2-3%. (On the other hand, turnout in the 1993 Senatorial runoff between appointed incumbent Democratic Senator Robert Krueger and Republican Texas Treasurer Kay Bailey Hutchison was over 20%. Hutchison won.)

Nevertheless, I think this result contradicts the establishment claim that a big turnout favored Dewhurst.

I’m guessing that when you say “GOPe” you mean the GOP establishment? I didn’t catch that before, but I agree Texas politicians aren’t as fiscally conservative as I’d like them to be.

Sorry, my last comment was for Juba Doobai! I’m not used to this “Reply” feature.

2hearts4life | August 1, 2012 at 7:08 am

Congrats Mr Cruz and Texas! Lovin’ the ‘Chic-Fil-A Bouquet!’ Way to begin the celebration. Kudos!

My friend DRJ has again been proven a prophet. From my take> on the runoff:

[T]he total GOP turnout was quite high for a primary runoff, but still represented only 8.6% of the state’s total population of 13 million registered voters.

But for perspective on that: The Dem run-off for this U.S. Senate seat drew a truly pathetic 1.8% of the registered voter total, a mere 235,708 voters compared to 1,106,224 voters in the GOP runoff. The Dems’ run-off winner, in other words, should simply be listed as “Who Cares?”

And here’s the genuinely amazing statistic: Ted Cruz drew only 480,558 votes out of 1,406,648 total voters (34.16%) in the May 29th initial GOP primary. In this run-off, he drew 628,336 votes out of 1,106,224 total voters (56.8%). Almost as many Texas Republicans voted in the run-off as in the primary, but Cruz’ relative performance among them simply skyrocketed. Cruz’ net improvement (147,778 votes) was nearly two-thirds of the total Democratic runoff turnout!

Cruz’ big win foreshadows watershed election in November

Ted Cruz enjoyed a whopping 21% margin on runoff election day itself.

Major backfire for Dewhurst’s negative ads.