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Ted Cruz surging to lead?

Ted Cruz surging to lead?

Via Roll Call, the Cruz campaign has released the results of an internal poll which shows Cruz in the lead:

Ted Cruz led Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst by 9 points in a recent internal poll conducted for the former Texas solicitor general’s campaign, a Cruz source has confirmed.

From the earliest days of the race to replace retiring Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R), Dewhurst has been the frontrunner. But in this survey, 49 percent of respondents said they would vote for Cruz. Forty percent supported Dewhurst, and 11 percent were undecided.

The poll surveyed 750 likely Republican runoff voters June 24-26 with a 3.6-point margin of error. Cruz had 96 percent name identification among those voters and Dewhurst had 98 percent name identification.

I haven’t been able to find any other recent polling.  Is this an outlier, or is the Cruz surge the real deal?


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Without confirmation, I’d call it an outlier. Though I’d love to believe it’s accurate.

Henry Hawkins | July 6, 2012 at 2:33 pm

Any single poll is an outlier till corroborated.

    William A. Jacobson in reply to Henry Hawkins. | July 6, 2012 at 2:43 pm

    Maybe “outlier” wasn’t the best word. Is Cruz surging, and is it credible that he would have a lead?

      Henry Hawkins in reply to William A. Jacobson. | July 6, 2012 at 5:10 pm

      Yeah. I thought an outlier was a poll that differed significantly from other polls that as a set tend to corroborate one another.

      Cruz gets a lot of good buzz, so I’d say it’s definitely possible he’s surging.

In Texas, we only had 10% of registered voters turn out for the primary on May 29, which was pushed back from March due to redistricting battles. A run off in July is highly unusual. A 3-5% turnout will be considered good.

It’s definitely a ground war this time. The Cruz campaign is surgically targeting those May primary voters, mostly by phone and mail. Dewhurst, at least the first time around, spent most of his money on tv and radio ads. I expect the air war to begin next week, with early voting beginning July 22. However, lots of voters are voting by mail this time, as many will by traveling. It’s a process, and only the committed will follow through. A friend of mine on the ballot review board said the ballots are already coming in.

If you have friends or relatives in Texas, you might kindly remind them to vote for Ted Cruz. Send them to for instructions and deadlines. Among the grassroots, we also have a “windshield campaign” going by writing “Choose Cruz July 31” in large letters on the back windshield with a window marker. Lots of bang for the buck.

It’s hard to tell if this poll means anything, but from what I can tell, Cruz has the enthusiasm and the momentum!

    GrumpyOne in reply to parteagirl. | July 7, 2012 at 12:26 pm

    I was originally for the Dallas Business guy but he lost in the first primary.

    I was also against Cruz but later in a televised debate, I was convinced that he would be much better than another establishment politician. Dewhurst was pathetic in that debate.

    Yes, I’ll be voting for Cruz and hope that his claimed Tea Party roots are in fact real…

Thought we might have gone 3 for 3 in June. The Walker win on June 5; a SCOTUS opinion vindicating that federalism was alive and well and that Arizona was well within its own sovereignty in protecting its borders; a SCOTUS opinion swatting down the outrageous theft of liberty (by Democrats) represented by Obamacare.

We got 1 out of 3, but significantly that win was the result of the people speaking, not the “august opinion” of those who lord it over us.

My point. If Cruz wins that could be seen as further evidence, like the Walker win, of the rising voice of the Conservative American, and could herald November.

Poll, shmoll…

My vote is with Cruz.

I was contacted by phone. 3 Cruz votes in our household. Only 1 voted in primary becuz we felt certain there’d be a run-off.

The surge can’t be due to TV ads, at least not in my area; none during any program I’ve watched.

I’m a Conservative Texan who pays attention and this is the first poll I’ve seen……. AND I LIKE IT.

The Intrade market is highly illiquid and should be treated with even more than the usual caution. It continues to favor Dewhurst. For the reason just given, I won’t guesstimate odds.

TrooperJohnSmith | July 6, 2012 at 7:37 pm

Ted is gaining ground, fast! The RINO, Kay Bailey Baby Hutchison endorse Davey Dewlittle, a fellow RINO, to be sure. However, whether it’s Cruz or Dewhurst, I’ll vote for them over the Dash-D. Hell, I’d vote for an Amana side-by-side refrigerator, without an ice-maker, over any Dimocrat. Except maybe Jim Trafficant.

TrooperJohnSmith | July 6, 2012 at 8:42 pm

I just made some calls, and in an internal poll taken this week Cruz is up 5 points (+/-3) amongst likely run-off voters. Cruz is polling well in rural counties, especially among the emerging Hispanic Republicans. It all comes down to turn-out. (BTW, Cruz is of Cuban ancestry and barely speaks Spanish!)

A lot of Tea Party folks, as well as strong conservatives, remember Dewhurst proposed a state income tax; put RINO Joe Straus in as House Speaker and killed the TSA ‘anti-grope’ bill. He has played nice with the Democrats, even though the Texas House is 90% Republican, often watering down bills and twisting arms to ‘be civil’. When there were very Republicans for the first 120 years, things were so bad, joked one old timer, “We couldn’t even get ’em to pass the water pitcher without catchin’ hell!”

june beamer | July 6, 2012 at 9:41 pm

Ceuz has 2 mor votes here in Tx!!!

june beamer | July 6, 2012 at 9:43 pm

oh, heck I acn’t spell but I can tell a “C” from a “D”!!! Cruz!!!

Well, you can figure any “internal poll” to have a 3-4 point bias for the guy who is paying for it if it’s released. But polls are not necessarily so predictive of primary runoffs.

These elections aren’t on the regular election dates, and there is nothing else at stake except the run-off. Expect turnout to be lower than the primary. There is a huge premium on organization and enthusiasm, and Cruz probably has the most committed troops.

Dewhurst has more or less the incumbent role here. It reminds me of the 2004 SC GOP primary for the open Senate seat which had been occupied by Fritz Hollings since the ’60s. Former Governor David Beasley had a healthy lead in the primary but wasn’t close to a majority against the field. DeMint was a distant second, but won the runoff handily. This could be a similar case.