When it comes to the House, Republicans don’t need a wave. Via Charlie Cook:
One might have expected that two years after Republicans picked up 63 House seats—the biggest gain in a midterm election since 1938—Democrats would be on track to win back a boatload of those districts that the GOP didn’t have much business winning in the first place. But a little more than four months out from the election, the tides seem about as neutral as they can be. Both parties have surprisingly comparable levels of exposure, largely because of redistricting. The relatively calm surface of this year’s waters belies a lot of offsetting tumult and change underneath. But for House Republicans, who hold a 25-seat majority, a status quo election producing minimal net change would be good news.
When it comes to the House that may be right, but we still need a wave to take back the Senate, and to do so by more than a 1-vote margin which leaves us at the mercy of the weakest link.
And we also need that wave to overcome the structural advantages Obama has (sure win in several large electoral states, incumbency, people wanting free stuff, etc.).
So wave.
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Funny how much that “free” stuff costs. TNSTAAFL.
Ignore Romney’s campaign. Chances are he’ll have to be dragged across the finish line by the GOP Establishment anyway. Focus on electing a winning Senate.
Operation Counterweight.
Utter nonsense. Have you seen him on the campaign trail? He’s been very good with very good crowds. It’s only going to get bigger. This guy is running a much better campaign than McCain and Obama is much weaker.
Support Romney with time, effort and/or money. There is a real chance for a wave election with Romney winning by a healthy margin.
Even though I’m a Gingrich guy, I always thought of Romney as strong and fearless. I would SO like to believe you. However.
During his statement about the Obamacare decision, his voice was shaky and He seemed donwright timid. He didn’t exactly cover himself in glory responding to the Arizona decision, either; Rush “Newt’s Debating Skills Are Irrelevant” Limbaugh remarked that a Romney performance like that in a debate against Obama could sink Mitt.
We need to get him elected. But let’s not delude ourselves. At crunch time (rallies and bashing fellow Republicans with MSM help don’t count), Mitt seems (I HATE to say this, because I never thought so before) SMALL.
Professor, Please consider adding Josh Mandel to your list of supported candidates. Today he is Ohio’s State Treasurer, and he is trying to beat the loathsome Sherrod Brown. He’s a veteran, an experienced retail politician par excellance and a no-nonsense conservative.
Brown’s wife is a columnist at the Plain Dealer (on nominal leave for the election), so the press is violently against him.
Josh is running in a crucial swing state against a socialist and he needs all the support he can get! Thanks.
Disagree! We need both houses gone. The Senate is a definite and the house of reps needs to be cleaned out starting with Boehner, Cantor, mickie donald. It’s time to set term limits by elections people!! Definitely get rid of Boehner, cantor.
respectfully diagree. already, some of the new breed of R have already been voted in (e.g. rand paul). keep voting new people in and watch the old guard on both sides crumble.
above all: stay armed, loud, and vote.
i made my first ever campaign contribution yesterday.
One of the silver linings from the Obamacare decision is that the act is a tax, apparently. It seems that cloture and a 60 vote majority is not needed in the Senate to alter the act — because as a tax it is subject to the reconciliation process. Give me a GOP president, and simple GOP majorities in the house and senate and we can undo this thing. BUT the process of returning health care to private industry better be workable and practical, because the left and their MSM allies will be hammering us regardless of the merits.
Good thoughts and you may well be right. For political purposes, however, (including scaring the bejeebers out of the remaining Dems), the bigger the majorities the better. A 55/45 Republican majority in the Senate would be better than a 51/49 majority. Likewise, a 55/45 popular vote for Romney would be better than a 51/49 vote.
I think the reconciliation process might actually work to repeal Obamacare. If not, however, the more Republican Senators we have, the fewer Dems we have to flip.
Agreed, and I believe this (getting Dem flippers) may be easier to accomplish than it might currently appear. Keep in mind that the Democrats have to defend 20 Senate seats in 2014, versus 13 for Republicans. Among them are Mark Pryor (AR), Kay Hagan (NC), Max Baucus (MT) and Tim Johnson (SD). The fear for their own hides tends to concentrate the mind.
Demonstrates the importance of the Brown-Granny Warren contest here in Massachusetts. In this looney state any vote for Romney is wasted as the One is certain to win. Remember in 1972 this is the only looney state to go for socialist McGovern. But with Brown those of us who haven’t drunk Democratic kool aid might have the chance to vote for someone is is “less liberal.” I’m not fooled; Brown is no conservative but given the idiocy that grips the all-too-typical lefty Democratic voter, he’s the closest to acceptable that I’ve seen in a long time.
Hard to believe that this state was one of the Original 13.
The flip side of my Roberts decision comment is that the Left can push through its liberal agenda of mandates by adding a tax to punish/reward/mandate behavior AND use a reconciliation senate process that only needs a simple majority to pass.
Palin: In November The People Will Issue Their Ruling On Obamacare
http://frontporchpolitics.com/2012/06/palin-in-november-the-people-will-issue-their-ruling-on-obamacare/
I get very few political emails and rarely read them but once I “unsubscribed” to receiving mail from Barack Obama the rest of my mails of this sort became scarcer…
Google directed all mails of this sort to spam as decided by “other” Gmail user group think preferences.
Does anyone have a good read on what is happening in the upcoming Texas Republican primary run-off?
O/T…….
As if yesterday’s SC decision wasn’t bad enough, guess who’s been left off the official “20 Hottest Conservative Men In New Media For 2012” ????
http://www.rightwingnews.com/special/the-20-hottest-conservative-men-in-the-new-media-for-2012/
So, do we boycott? Protest? What? Oh, the humanity….
Don’t cry for me. I asked to be left off. The attention embarrasses me.
It’s the curse of social phobia.
Or, as my wife called me yesterday, “Social retard.”
I prefer the more decorous, “Social quadriplegic.”
Um er.. as handsome as you no doubt are, I was concerned that the Perfesser was left off this list.
BTW, I don’t know if I’m a social quadriplegic too, but I hate me some crowds, because they are made of people. I hate going out, I hate office-related social events with a passion (perhaps because my wife taught nursing for so long), I hate receiving phones when not at work, I hate me, I hate you, I hate….
Don’t be a hater.
Crowds that are large and impersonal, where I can be anonymous, don’t bother me so much.
It’s the little intimate gatherings that are my achilles heel.
I hate office-related social events, too. I don’t attend any outside the workplace. We were singing happy birthday to a coworker once in the office and people started laughing and one asked me, “Why are you blushing? It’s not your birthday and we’re not singing to you!”
We’re gonna have to start a LI Social Phobia Club. And because we don’t particularly like company, refuse all new membership applications.
In the House, we need to “repeal and replace”, not grow the size.
In fact, if we elected 20 more RINOs, we would be in worse shape than today, because Boehner would have more votes to allow him to ignore conservatives.
No, we need a House “wave of replacement” conservatives. It may be too late in many cases this year.
But we have to start primarying more deep red districts with fairweather friends.
One telling point. There are a growing number of dems distancing themselves from their parties position. More telling ,Pelosi is allowing if not encouraging it. On the other GOP side our leadership shows signs of growing a spine. l suspect the freshmen are having a growing impact.
I think the tactic of pressing a repeal vote on ObamaCare in the Senate is a great idea.
Let each Deemocrat senator have to step up to their tax hike monstrosity before the election. Expose them to that theme.
I’m feeling pretty tidal, myself. “Intensity” just got turned up to 11.
Here’s what the Professor is talking about. Now that’s a BFW.
A potential source of pressure on Obama/Dems, given that Obamacare represents the largest tax hike in world history, is the fact that the expiring Bush tax cuts looming on the horizon would constitute the second largest tax hike in history. Ouch. Go ahead, Dems. Approve both of them. On the record. On video.