Jews are a core Democratic liberal constituency, except for Orthodox Jews.

In the greater New York City area, there is a demographic time bomb for Democrats in the form of a surge in Orthodox Jewish children who now constitute over 60% of all Jewish children in the region:

The New York City area’s Jewish population is on the rise again, thanks largely to the growth of Orthodox households.

The number of Jews in the city and three suburban counties jumped to 1.54 million, up from 1.41 million a decade ago, according to a comprehensive population survey released Tuesday by the UJA-Federation of New York.

In New York City specifically, the Jewish population, which in 2002 was found to have dipped below 1 million, now stands at 1.086 million …

While 32 percent of the area’s Jews live in Orthodox households, Orthodox households are now home to 61 percent of the area’s Jewish children — a staggering statistic, said Brandeis University’s Jonathan Sarna.

“It serves as a reminder that while we talk about intermarriage, singleness/childlessness among non-Orthodox Jews may actually be a far more important long-term trend,” he said.

Change will come, but it will take a decade or more to be felt at the polls.

In the meantime, I’m slowly coming around to the view that maybe there is a possibility of a chance that the Democratic strangehold on Jewish voters is breaking.

I’ve resisted polling showing Jewish support for Obama slipping as contrary to my life experiences, but it is so bad on so many fronts that even the Jews seem to be coming around to reality (via Israel Matzav):

President Obama’s support among Jewish voters in the state of New York has dropped 22 percentage points in only a month, according to the results of a just released poll.

The poll, conducted by Siena College, finds that currently President Obama has the support of 51 percent of Jewish voters, while 43 percent are opposed to him. Five percent are undecided. That means, Obama’s lead among Jewish voters is at 8 percentage points.

Previously, in Siena’s May poll, Obama had the support 62 percent of Jewish New Yorkers, while 32 percent opposed him. That means, last month, Obama’s lead among this group of voters was at a strong 30 percentage points.

My people are letting go!


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