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Take nothing for granted

Take nothing for granted

While Richard Mourdock is rising, don’t count Dick Lugar out.  He’s throwing everything he has at Mourdock this week, each day multiple new accusations.  A poll just out shows Lugar with a two point lead, via National Journal:

Sen. Richard Lugar and Indiana Treasurer Richard Mourdock are in a dead heat according to a poll released Wednesday that was conducted for the Lunch Pail Republicans, a pro-labor group that announced its support for Lugar on the same day.

Lugar leads Mourdock 44 percent to 42 percent, separation that is within the margin of error.  Fourteen percent of respondents said they were undecided.

The live-caller poll was conducted entirely on Tuesday. One-day polls typically arouse a bit more skepticism than surveys conducted over the course of several days.

But most observers expect a close election and the findings of the survey is consistent with that line of thought.

A Wenzel Strategies poll conducted in late April for the pro-Mourdock Citizens United Political Victory Fund showed Mourdock leading Lugar 44 percent to 39 percent.

The Magellan Strategies poll of 400 likely Indiana Republican primary voters was conducted for the Lunch Pail Republicans on May 1 and carries a margin of error of +/- 4.9 percentage points.

Same story in Wisconsin, where there essentially is a dead heat in a Marquette Poll just released:

With less than a week until the primary in the historic Wisconsin gubernatorial recall election, a new Marquette Law School Poll shows Tom Barrett leading Kathleen Falk 38 percent to 21 percent, with 8 percent for Doug La Follette and 6 percent for Kathleen Vinehout. In a June general election between Barrett and Governor Scott Walker, Barrett leads by one percentage point, 47-46, among all registered voters, while Walker leads by one percentage point, 48-47, among likely voters. Both results are well within the margin of error of the poll. Walker leads former Dane County Executive Kathleen Falk 49 percent to 42 percent among registered voters and 49 percent to 43 percent among likely voters.

Given how close the Walker recall will be, it’s a good thing Wisconsin will have voter photo  i.d. to prevent voter fraud.  Oh wait.

Update: H/t Michelle Malkin, some interesting background on the Indiana pollster:

i did some digging and from their April FEC report, it shows $100,000 transferred to the group from 1 PAC called “ENGINEERS POLITICAL EDUCATION COMMITTEE” which is a union PAC that has given to a littany of Democrats with a rate repub.

So a union is hiding under a shell so called Lunch Pail Republican PAC to hide the fact they are helping Lugar. Gotta help Obama’s favorite Republican I guess.

That doesn’t mean the poll is wrong.  Take nothing for granted.

 

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Comments

The Walker recall is making me a bit nervous, but I saw a tweet that the D’s are being over polled. The other encouraging aspect is that the college students will be out of school in the June election.

Ragspierre | May 2, 2012 at 8:31 pm

It seems Cantor is confused about who he should be supporting, and no mistake.

http://www.redstate.com/erick/2012/05/02/eric-cantors-cage-is-rattled-so-im-giving-100-00-to-scott-keadle/

Just sent Mourdock some money. Will do the same for Walker tomorrow (forgot him tonight).

[…] (typeof(addthis_share) == "undefined"){ addthis_share = [];}by SmittyLegal Insurrection points to some National Journal polling showing Tea Party favorite Mourdock  in a statistical […]

I’m sorry, Professor, but my neighbor State, Wisconsin has taken all of my donation funds.
Lugar must go, but he’s not anywhere near my focus.
But keep “Palinizing” the enemy!

And I’d like to start that term: Palinized.

It’s not that Palin had anything to do with it. It’s that American citizens did, with her inspiration.

Wadda ya think?

I’m so sick of the miserable GOP establishment. Breitbart once said he wasn’t sure who had more contempt for conservatives, the Left or the GOPE. I understood instantly. And we’re seeing the contempt in its full glory now through Eric Cantor and the rest of his elitist weasel cohort. Mourdock must win.

That link to Michelle is her linking to what I wrote at Redstate in a diary. Wanted to spread the word. I see it’s working 🙂

Magellan is a decent polling firm. It’s the fact a union is helping Lugar that’s shocking.

Sorry for O/T post

If any bloggers out there tonight be fore-warned what will be all over the news tomorrow morning (Thurs AM)

A neo-nazi in Phoenix killed his whole family.

http://www.myfoxphoenix.com/dpp/news/crime/multiple-people-shot-inside-gilbert-home-5-2-2012

Need to get out in front of it as the guy was going to run for Sheriff in Pinal County as a Democratic

http://www.myfoxphoenix.com/dpp/news/elections/former-neo-nazi-to-run-for-pinal-county-sheriff-as-a-democrat-01202012

The media will try and spin this as a “right wing” terrorist

I reckon we’ll see shortly if the Indiana and Wisconsin voters are going to go the right way or the wrong way.

Whether either has national implications is unknown, but it won’t bode well to see the Libs or Rinos win these early contests.

Eric Cantor has been disappointing after such an encouraging start. That’s what seems to happen to all the politicos once they’ve been there awhile. Too many favors and chits that are owed – integrity be damned.

Lugar is toast. An incumbent with what? six terms? who is only pulling 44% in his own primary should be lining up movers.

The Walker poll from Marquette is also within the MOE of their previous poll. Don’t panic.

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