Just released.
This is the poll Lugar supporters were saying is the only reliable poll. No public link yet, but Barney Keller of Club for Growth says confirmed:
More to follow.
Updates: Pollster confirms:
More: The results and analysis are available, as of this writing, only to subscribers to the Howey Politics blog (which is very anti-Richard Mourdock) which commissioned the poll in conjunction with DePauw University. Here’s how National Journal reports it:
In what is likely to be the final live-caller public poll ahead of Tuesday’s Indiana Senate Republican primary, state Treasurer Richard Mourdock has opened up a ten point lead over Sen. Richard Lugar, whose 35-year Senate career is in serious jeopardy.A Howey/DePauw Indiana Battleground Poll conducted by Democratic and Republican pollsters on Monday and Tuesday of this week shows Mourdock leading Lugar 48 percent to 38 percent.The previous Howey/DePauw survey, which was conducted from March 26-28, had Lugar leading Mourdock 42 percent to 35 percent. In the weeks since that survey was taken, outside groups have come to the aid of both candidates, spending big bucks on TV ad buys and mail drops….The poll, conducted April 30 and May 1 by Republican pollster Christine Matthews of Bellwether Research and Fred Yang of Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group, surveyed 700 likely voters in next Tuesday’s primary. The margin of error is plus-or-minus 3.7 percentage points.All respondents have a history of voting in Republican primaries, the pollsters reported, with slightly more than three-quarters of respondents identifying as Republicans. Matthews writes that the GOP Senate primary could “attract some voters with no history of voting in a Republican primary.” To account for that, pollsters “also dialed a separate list of voters with no primary vote history but who voted in the 2008 and 2010 general elections,” she writes, but did not call those who had voted in Democratic primaries.
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