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New Indiana Poll – Mourdock up 48-38

New Indiana Poll – Mourdock up 48-38

Just released.

This is the poll Lugar supporters were saying is the only reliable poll. No public link yet, but Barney Keller of Club for Growth says confirmed:

More to follow.

Updates: Pollster confirms:

More:  The results and analysis are available, as of this writing, only to subscribers to the Howey Politics blog (which is very anti-Richard Mourdock) which commissioned the poll in conjunction with DePauw University.  Here’s how National Journal reports it:

In what is likely to be the final live-caller public poll ahead of Tuesday’s Indiana Senate Republican primary, state Treasurer Richard Mourdock has opened up a ten point lead over Sen. Richard Lugar, whose 35-year Senate career is in serious jeopardy.

A Howey/DePauw Indiana Battleground Poll conducted by Democratic and Republican pollsters on Monday and Tuesday of this week shows Mourdock leading Lugar 48 percent to 38 percent.

The previous Howey/DePauw survey, which was conducted from March 26-28, had Lugar leading Mourdock 42 percent to 35 percent. In the weeks since that survey was taken, outside groups have come to the aid of both candidates, spending big bucks on TV ad buys and mail drops….

The poll, conducted April 30 and May 1 by Republican pollster Christine Matthews of Bellwether Research and Fred Yang of Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group, surveyed 700 likely voters in next Tuesday’s primary. The margin of error is plus-or-minus 3.7 percentage points.

All respondents have a history of voting in Republican primaries, the pollsters reported, with slightly more than three-quarters of respondents identifying as Republicans. Matthews writes that the GOP Senate primary could “attract some voters with no history of voting in a Republican primary.” To account for that, pollsters “also dialed a separate list of voters with no primary vote history but who voted in the 2008 and 2010 general elections,” she writes, but did not call those who had voted in Democratic primaries.

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Comments

Ragspierre | May 4, 2012 at 9:26 am

Lugar should do the righteous, and bow out now.

Should, but won’t. I should add that I’ve seen quite a few Mourdock lawn signs, but not a single one for Lugar so far. I think it won’t even be close, because Lugar supporters aren’t going to bother, while Mourdock supporters are far more enthusiastic. The winner is the one with the most supporters who actually show up to vote.

I don’t think it is realistic to expect him to bow out before the primary. The righteous thing would be for him to endorse Mourdock if Mourdock wins and rally the Republican party behind its candidate. Unfortunately, I’m not particularly optimistic for that outcome either.

    hrh40 in reply to RCosta. | May 4, 2012 at 11:53 am

    Are you from CT by any chance?

    The reason I ask is because I know an RCosta from CT. If you are that person: “Hi!”

    [And even if you aren’t!] 🙂

MaggotAtBroadAndWall | May 4, 2012 at 10:05 am

What always blows me away with these polls is how many people remain uncommitted with less than a week to go until the election. Apparently, 14% in this case. And given the update to this post labled “More”, most of them are likely voters with a history of voting in Republican primaries. I just don’t understand how anyone can be undecided at this late date.

    Having been contacted by a number of polls (not in Indiana), it is not always clear who is doing the polling. Sometimes “uncommitted” or “undecided” simply means “I don’t trust you to tell you.”

    A secret ballot means you don’t have to tell anyone including pollsters how you plan to vote. 😉

Holding my breath. 🙂

stevewhitemd | May 4, 2012 at 10:45 am

It’s another demonstration that Lugar should not have run this time. He’s been there six terms. He’s quite advanced in years. He could have taken this opportunity to turn the seat over, work to have a Pub win in the fall, and bow out gracefully. He then could have spent time as a ‘senior statesman’ doing some good and enjoying his family.

But no, he’s addicted to the power so he decided to run again.

Prediction: if he loses (as it seems likely), he will not go in style. He won’t be classy about it.

    heimdall in reply to stevewhitemd. | May 4, 2012 at 11:55 am

    Indiana has a sore loser law so at least Lugar will not be able to run as an independent or democrat after he loses. The only thing he will be able to do is side with the democrats or change parties for the last few months in office.

Mr. Mourdock was on Sean Hannity yesterday speaking very confidently about winning.

Should he succeed, this will be a big step in the direction of retiring RINOS, who are addicted to Washington. The Tea Party will add another feather to their hat in affecting change.

The lies being spread by the GOP establishment and the efforts of detested RINOs to beat back Mourdock sure seem to have backfired bigtime. These people never know when to just STFU and GO AWAY.

Let’s just call that the Palin effect.

And today the Lugar radio ads got significantly more obnoxiously negative. Lies, damn lies, and a few false accusations thrown in for good measure. Too late to refute them all by election day but it is the kind of desperation attack that makes you want to not vote for Lugar EVER…even if he pulls out a win. Despicable stuff…nasty with an ominous music track. Fighting dirty because his aged back is up against the wall. I know Lugar, worked for him for a time, and have voted for him every election cycle since I was eligible to vote but I won’t ever vote for him again. Far too little decorum for a man I once greatly respected.

    Peg Conroy in reply to hang5. | May 5, 2012 at 12:20 pm

    We need a betting pool on whether, if he Lugar loses, he becomes a Sore Loser traitor and campaigns for the Dem opponent in the general (if there is a Dem opponent). Didn’t Murkowski, Castle and Crist all do that or something very like it? It’s almost impossible to describe how detestable RINOs can be.

[…] Le·gal In·sur·rec·tion has the details. This is a race that Prof. Jacobson has been watching as part of Operation Counterweight. In what is likely to be the final live-caller public poll ahead of Tuesday’s Indiana Senate Republican primary, state Treasurer Richard Mourdock has opened up a ten point lead over Sen. Richard Lugar, whose 35-year Senate career is in serious jeopardy. A Howey/DePauw Indiana Battleground Poll conducted by Democratic and Republican pollsters on Monday and Tuesday of this week shows Mourdock leading Lugar 48 percent to 38 percent. […]

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