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The words “brokered convention” may not be as scary as once thought

The words “brokered convention” may not be as scary as once thought

As the primary season has continued to wear on, some supporters from the not-Mitt Romney voting bloc are deciding to fold up shop and reluctantly begin shifting their support from their candidate of choice. They do this largely because they’re worried that if conservatives don’t unite around a candidate soon, President Obama will bury the eventual nominee in attack ads and negative press using the billion dollars he saved up while Republicans were having at each other all spring and summer. These worries may not be as valid as once thought.

As the monthly fund raising totals for the President’s reelection campaign continue to trickle in, they seem to indicate that Democrat donors are not all that motivated to give to a campaign that doesn’t yet have a clear-cut opponent. January’s fundraising totals for the President were about $29 million, down from his efforts in the 2008 election cycle. Similarly, February also shows a sitting President that is unable to keep up with the fundraising numbers he had in 2008, when he was merely a candidate in the Democrat primary.

ABC News reported the fundraising totals for February showing that Obama and the Democratic National Committee pulled in $45 million dollars, down from $56 million in February of 2008. It’s certainly nothing to scoff at, but it has him far off the the billion dollar pace the Obama campaign was once hoping for. Additionally, not all of this money is reserved solely for the President’s reelection campaign, and it is likely that Obama will see a number similar to that of his January fundraising take (h/t HotAir). It should be noted that in these months where 2008 Obama continues to outpace 2012 Obama, he was still battling Hillary Clinton for the nomination, who was taking up her own substantial share of available Democrat donor dollars.

So why the poor fundraising? Where’s the billion dollar haul? The reason seems to be two-fold to me. Obviously there is the fact that the Obamamania of 2008 has long since worn off and been replaced with a sobering reality that conveys any number of passionate feelings, though “hope” is not likely among them. But the low fundraising also appears to be caused by the absence of a single figure around which the Democrats, and the President’s campaign, can unite against.

Despite many in the Democratic Party’s contempt for much of what Republicans stand for, there just isn’t as much satisfaction in donating to the President’s campaign to beat “generic Republican man.” Because of this, Obama’s fundraising totals have waned.

The poor fundraising by the Obama camp seems to contradict all the doom and gloom rhetoric the Republican establishment espouses on a daily basis about the potential consequences of conservatives not immediately settling for the “inevitable” Mitt Romney. It appears that a brokered convention may actually help the eventual nominee and create a far less one-sided fundraising landscape in the general election, an unintended but welcome consequence.

There is no real strategic reason to not continue supporting your candidate of choice, whoever it may be. A vote that isn’t for Mitt Romney is not merely a protest vote by any stretch of the imagination. In fact, those votes may further stymie President Obama’s fundraising numbers long into the summer, ultimately helping the eventual Republican nominee.

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Comments

So, we should have a brokered convention because OZero’s fundraising numbers aren’t so hot? That would require trusting OZero’s campaign finance reports. And since when has OZero been transparent about ANYTHING?

    Trusting the campaign finance reports is MUCH less a problem for me than trusting anything coming out of the administration over which Obama has direct or indirect control.

    Failing to properly report campaign finance donations is a criminal offense (I’m pretty sure it’s a felony if I remember correctly). Now, granted the criminal provisions are enforced by the Dept. of Justice, so take it’s enforcement against Obama with a grain of salt. But were Obama to willfully fail to do so, it would undercut the ENTIRE Democrat argument about “money in politics” FOREVER.

    Speaking Federal Election Law, (and so NO ONE EVER FORGETS literally the FIRST paragraph under the Crimes and Criminal Procedure portion of the Compiled Federal Election Campaign laws document, listed as Title 18, Chapter 29, Section 594, is INTIMIDATION OF VOTERS and it says that those who intimidate “shall [mandatory, not permissive] be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than one year, or both.”

    Never forget that Atty General Eric Holder FAILED to ENFORCE THE LAW against the BLACK PANTHERS who we have ON VIDEO intimidating voters in Philadelphia because he put race politics above his service to the United States.

I’m down with a brokered convention.

(Sarah…paging Sarah Palin…)

    Her recent high approval rating among Republicans of ALL stripes and conservative-leaning Independents suggest she is the only high profile Republican who could unify the party.

    Palin/West 2012!

      Uncle Samuel in reply to McCoy2k. | March 25, 2012 at 3:17 pm

      NEWT-RYAN

      Sarah Palin – Secretary of Energy

      West – chairman of the House Armed Services Committee.

      Ken Cuccinelli – AG.

        Hope Change in reply to Uncle Samuel. | March 25, 2012 at 5:17 pm

        Hi Uncle Samuel –

        I think my first choice would be Newt – Palin.

        Palin matches Newt’s smarts and Reaganite principles. They would win a decisive victory.

        Imagine President Newt Gingrich and Vice President Sarah Palin.

        And we will know EXACTLY what they will do. It’s all written down.

        This is the chance of a lifetime.

      Uncle Samuel in reply to McCoy2k. | March 25, 2012 at 6:43 pm

      WHEN THIS SARAH PALIN SPEAKS, people listen. One of Sarah’s tweets: Rebecca Felty Krukar, Mike Wintermyer, John Saunders and 12,424 others like this. Sarah Palin Facebook followers: 3,310,580 like this 30,143 talking about this.

      Look at the Sarah movie trailer video (1:12-1:45) to gauge her influence and popularity: http://www.therightscoop.com/palin-game-change-we-can-believe-in/#disqus_thread/

      Compare it with this event: http://www.therightscoop.com/photo-of-the-day-open-thread-2/

      And remember the standing room only for Sarah Palin’s speech at CPAC.

      Be very afraid Obama and RNC and Romney.

      (Don’t get me wrong, I’m still all in for NEWT)

    RWRFAN in reply to Ragspierre. | March 26, 2012 at 7:47 am

    I’m hoping for a brokered convention and the eventual nomination of Palin.She IS the one to go toe to toe with Maobama.The strengh of her polling and her recent interviews and FB and Tweets confirms that she has what it takes to make substantial changes that our nation sorely needs.

    A poster suggested Palin/West. I could live with that.

I just have no stomach for seven months of listening to Rombama “moving to the center” from his already left of center positioning by shifting into his “You think YOU hate Reublicans!” phase. And seven more months of having to listen to the nose holders rationalizing “Anybody but Obama” while continuing their war against conservatives? No thanks.

We are in this deep, deep hole because from square one. too many “conservatives” pledged to vote for whatever liberal Democrat gets crammed down our throats by the GOP elites. There is no point being a conservative Republican if every time I try to fight against Democrat liberalism, the nose-holding Republicans get in the way with their “it’s not the right time”. Well it’s NEVER the right time to do the right thing with Republicans. And so here we are again near the point where once again we are presented with a meaningless choice of having to choose between two liberal Democrats.

We NEED a hard fought, knock-em-down, drag-em-out brokered convention. It’s our last hope for getting one last chance to stem the tide of global totalitarian government. If we end up having to hold our noses to vote for Rombama it will mean that it’s all over.

We might as well start preparing for the next meaningless noseholder exercise by practicing our “Anybody by Hillary!” and “Jebbie is the ONLY ONE who can beat Hillary!” BS for the next “most important election ever” in 2016. Does anyone really believe that voters, never mind conservatives, have a say in anything anymore?

The Dems aren’t happy with their candidate either. We all have more in common with the Occuppiers than with the one-party establishment and their two BS narratives bringing us closer and closer to the same liberal hell hole after each election.

This where we started a year ago and here we are again. Nothing has been won. The noseholderes will vote for the liberal, the blacks and Jews will vote for their liberal, 7-8 million the Southern Reagan Democrats will stay home again and people like me will vote 2nd party. Was it worth it?

    HarrietHT in reply to Pasadena Phil. | March 25, 2012 at 2:40 pm

    “We all have more in common with the Occuppiers than with the one-party establishment and their two BS narratives bringing us closer and closer to the same liberal hell hole after each election.”

    Pasadena Phil: I don’t know about the Occupiers part, but the one-party with two narratives (so it casts a wide enough net to prop up the appearance of an opposition party) clause, and following, are true words if any ever were.

    Here’s another thing, if heaven forbid we get M.R. as our nominee, the dark clouds will roll in with a thunder clap when he starts tacking to the left to attract the precious middle (know-nothings), shedding forever any pretense of conservatism; that conservative portion of the voting public, maybe 30% or more, are going to feel the swift kick in the gut they’ve just been given. That 30% or more is going to realize it’s game, set, and match, and that despotism will not be thwarted peacefully. That’s my take on the dire straights we’re in.

And what of Obama’s ability to use Tax Payer monies to campaign? He’s got the Bulley Pulpit, as well as Air Force 1, etc. to run around and bash “Generic Republican Man.”
I’m not sure I disagree with this post per se, but I can’t get there with the logical laid out.

I wouldn’t mind a brokered convention but for the fact that Ron Paul’s people have been gathering delegates all over the country and they don’t intend to vote for anyone but Paul.
A brokered convention could lead to a man winning the Republican nomination(Paul) with less than 10% of the general public’s support.
I wrote about it here.http://hillbuzz.org/ron-pauls-devious-plan-to-steal-the-presidency-63749

I’m up for a brokered convention. Again, I say it; I don’t like or trust Romney enough to hold my nose and pull the lever for him.

    While I sympathize, the last month demonstrates the level the Democrats will go to win. My eyes are wide open. Not participating in the Presidential election is no longer an option.

    Even if Obama is thwarted by a Republican-dominated Senate as well as the House, his lap dogs in the media will not cover, nor criticize, how dictatorial he will become through the use of executive powers.

    That’s what Obama is signaling by his unconstitutional “Senate Recess” appointment, as well as an arms length of other examples. He is willing to go all the way to totalitarianism (and beyond)to get what he and his party want.

      Subotai Bahadur in reply to McCoy2k. | March 25, 2012 at 1:42 pm

      Accepting this judgment of Obama’s motives and goals [and I do, by the way] means that one logically must realize that electoral politics with these parties are not capable of restraining him. If he is intent on seizing power, the electoral campaign is but a prelude to what will be necessary. It will shape future battlefields, but it will no longer be determinative. We fight for what we believe in, not for the benefit of the bipartisan Political Class, with votes as long as such is possible. But we have to realize that events will continue after the Enemy makes voting moot.

      Subotai Bahadur

        Hope Change in reply to Subotai Bahadur. | March 25, 2012 at 5:46 pm

        Hi Subotai Bahadur — from your comments, I perceive you as seeing the political landscape very similarly to the way I do. You see that this is a serious crossroads and that the Left is planning violence.

        But we can choose a better way. Choose effectiveness. Choose Liberty. Choose resolution of conflict. Choose we win, they lose. PEACEFULLY. LEGALLY.

        The American People are sovereign. We have the power if we will just FIND OUT HOW TO USE IT.

        The SOVEREIGN POWER of the American People is MUCH more powerful than this miserable political class. We are the boss of them. They are not the boss of us.

        This tremendous power is RIGHT IN FRONT OF US. We have the power to elect president, House and Senate, ALL PLEDGED TO RESTORING THE CONSTITUTION, all at once.

        Once you get it, you find inside yourself a deep determination to make this plan work. For the sake of everyone and everything you love. FREEDOM for America.

        Find out how we can have a DRAMATICALLY better future. Check it out.

        The PLAN. Newt’s 2012 CPAC speech. http://newtgingrich360.com/profiles/blogs/newt-2012-cpac-2012-american-campaign-newt-man-with-the-plan   (includes a loose transcript to skim through)

        “2012: VICTORY OR DEATH” THE STRATEGY FOR 2012 – 
http://newtgingrich360.com/profiles/blogs/2012-victory-or-death-newt-s-speeches-links-to-17-speeches

        Listen to the cheers of this crowd. Once people understand, there is unbridled enthusiasm.
        ALABAMA GOP PRESIDENTIAL FORUM – March 12, 2012 http://electad.com/videos/newt-gingrich-participates-in-alabama-presidential-forum-march-12-2012/ – Birmingham, Alabama – 33:21

          Hope Change in reply to Hope Change. | March 25, 2012 at 5:51 pm

          InstaPundit’s quote perhaps says it best” “They’re trying to turn us into beggars, because beggars are easier to please.”

          Clearly, everyone here pretty much sees what they are trying to do.

          They cannot succeed if the sovereign power of the American People is aware and focused.

          WE are incomparably stronger than they are once we unite.

          Find out the game plan. Read the treasure map. You may have an important part to play.

    Milwaukee in reply to persecutor. | March 25, 2012 at 2:27 pm

    Agreed, I don’t care for Romney. But Newt did say that even Romney would be better than 0bama. Besides, 0bama is making Romney look good. I’m pretty sure Romney isn’t going to be playing the race card like Barack Hussein 0bama does.

I agree that many donors might be waiting for the GOP result, but for a slightly different reason: Some might be willing to donate to Romney, if he’s the nominee, instead of Obama.

I’m sure there are some donors that are sitting on their hands (and wallets) now that would choose Santorum, Gingrich or Paul over Obama. But they are probably few and far between.

This goes back to the etch a sketch BS. If there’s less of a perceived difference between Obama and Romney then some old Obama donors would be more likely to be wooed by Mitt.

    hrh40 in reply to Jay Jones. | March 25, 2012 at 12:37 pm

    Many of Obama’s WS donors have already made the switch to Romney.

    Clearly they, along with Soros, don’t see much difference.

There’s a big difference between voting for your candidate of choice in the primaries ahead and attacking Mitt Romney in order to make sure he won’t have enough delegates to force an open convention. Rick Santorum is not running to win. He’s running now to make it harder for Romney to win. Both the primaries and the general. He is taking this race personally and is using the same tactics he accuses Romney of except Santorum doesn’t have enough money to do it using ads so he spews it out of his own mouth. He is coming across as petty and desperate.

And you know what? The Republican establishment would just love it if Santorum came out of the convention the winner. You know why? Because Romney has been so damaged that he probably can’t win now and they know there’s no way Santorum can win so they’d rather see Santorum lose than Romney. That way they can gloat about how conservatism can’t win. They want another Goldwater. And don’t be surprised if all the usual establishment suspects start touting Santorum the closer we get to the convention if Romney doesn’t have the delegates.

Santorum won’t lose because he’s a conservative. He’ll lose because he’s an immature man child who can’t articulate conservatism well enough to get the votes. Santorum turns people off to conservatism because he’s so inarticulate and that’s exactly what the Republican establishment wants.

Could be an interesting election if neither candidate (Obama vs. ?Romney/?Santorum) generates much enthusiasm from their respective parties. Then, the question becomes, which party turns out to vote more consistently? If disenchanted Democrats & disenchanted Republicans both sit this one out, previous voting patterns won’t mean much.

“Again, I say it; I don’t like or trust Romney enough to hold my nose and pull the lever for him.”

Then you will have four years of inhaling the rich aroma of Obama’s fundament. Breath deep the gathering gloom.

    hrh40 in reply to vanderleun. | March 25, 2012 at 12:38 pm

    And you haven’t yet figured out that 4 years of Romney will be only a scintilla better than 4 more years of Obama.

    Sure, they may be slightly better.

    But we need magnitudes of order better to right the course of this ship of state.

    Romney is not the captain that can get that done.

    wodiej in reply to vanderleun. | March 25, 2012 at 12:47 pm

    vs inhaling the odorous fumes of Romney the elite who only pretends to be something he isn’t.

      Uncle Samuel in reply to wodiej. | March 25, 2012 at 3:40 pm

      CORRUPTION Romney = Obama
      LIBERALISM Romney = Obama
      LIES Romney = Obama
      ARTICULATE Romney = Obama
      MATURITY Romney slightly ahead of Obama
      SELF-CONTROL Romney significantly ahead of Obama
      RACISM Romney significantly ahead of Obama
      FOREIGN POLICY Romney significantly ahead of Obama
      POLITICAL IDEOLOGY Romney significantly ahead of Obama

      Agree/Disagree?

I say brokered convention. We have nothing to lose. At least w a BC We the People might actually have a voice and send a message that we will fight.

The fact that Obama donors might shift to Romney doesn’t mean that the two are close.

Rather, it means that those who would give money to what they thought Obama would be, whatever values they projected on him, might actually see the same in Romney.

This isn’t inherently good or bad, Obama was a blank slate back then and lots of people got bamboozled. It just means that there are lots of donors somewhere in the middle.

    Terri in reply to Jay Jones. | March 25, 2012 at 1:12 pm

    “The fact that Obama donors might shift to Romney doesn’t mean that the two are close.”

    Alot of his same donors have already contributed to Romney.

    If Romney gets the nomination, it won’t just be him that prevails, it will be the very same people that have led this country into such straits, such a crisis. The very same people that have wrought economic havoc upon scores of millions of people.
    Well, you vote for the same ole crap, you get the same ole crap!
    http://billmoyers.com/episode/crony-capitalism/
    Let’s see, who fits this description??? Why are both establishments so against Gingrich?
    Compare contibutions once you watch this, you will see who is the same ole crap!
    http://www.opensecrets.org/pres12/contrib.php?id=N00000286

The forces driving us toward a brokered convention have been coming into being for years, not months. It’s a repressed political outrage at the breaking point. I don’t see any way out of it. Every effort by the quivering Romney control-freaks and GOP powdered wigs to avert or suppress it will only make it more likely.

We haven’t seen this outrage cohere in the primaries because of the lack of an adequate vessel for it, beyond the diffuse and leaderless Tea Party. Santorum keeps flailing – he hasn’t the maturity, magnetism or focus to inspire or lead a movement. Gingrich was not really equal to the task of marshaling the outrage he was stirring. I think it scared him a little. In any case, one could almost see him pull back from the brink and assume the safely avuncular role of elder statesman. That was never going to take down Romney.

Our political class is comprised of maniacs and cowards. On this course, we’re finished. We’re finished with Obama, and we’re finished with Romney.

As I see it, it’s a brokered convention and some new recognition and candidate or it’s ruin.

A precipitating event might be if the Supreme Court ruled in favor of Obamacare (that is to say, Romneycare). In that case, it’s “Katy bar the door” for the convention.

    Uncle Samuel in reply to raven. | March 25, 2012 at 3:49 pm

    NEWT has voiced our outrage.
    – at the media
    – at the establishment politicians
    – at the PC liberal agenda propaganda we have been forced to swallow and breathe for so long.
    – at the corruption, cronyism, spending
    – at the lack of accountability….

    NEWT (and Sarah Palin, Bachmann, Rick Santorum to various degrees) voiced our hopes and beliefs
    What they have said has resonated with Mark Levin, Rush, the Tea Party.

Uncle Samuel | March 25, 2012 at 1:32 pm

Dear Republican Party,

This primary has been a slap-dash, devious, manipulated, disorderly, disrespectful of this nation and the people – who are the taxpayers and voters.

Rules, primary schedules, allocation of delegates, registration in different states looks like your party is playing a big political game from the perspective of the people.

No wonder there have been record low votes. This primary has been a disaster.

Why would a sane and competent party have a primary with:
– Open primaries where Democrats and independents can do great mischief,
– Voting without Photo IDs
– Caucuses with voice votes, little slips of paper, shouting matches, constant bickering over rules, arrests.
– Debates run by MSM.
– Obscene amounts of money thrown about when millions are jobless
– Lies, smears, attacks – even on stage at debates and in ads – without penalty and a mandatory public apology.
– Media allowed (or hired) to manipulate elections and shape opinion…(Drudge, Coulter, etc)
– Endorsements on basis of party politics, not credibility and credentials.

Signed,

Disgusted and Disillusioned.

I agree that Brokered Convention is a GOOD THING to get someone other than Romney or a candidate (like Santorum) who will get killed in a general election.

I’m less worried about GOP delegates selling their soul for Romney cash and favors so I’m focused on making sure Ron Paul or Newt Gingrich have an EQUAL number of delegate to Santorum going into the general election.

But Obama ALREADY Has his cash. He’s gotten not just a billion – but BILLIONS from kickbacks already from STIMULUS and TARP. The unions alone will contribute 1/2 Billion.

And Obama’s focus is vote THEFT and chaos – not becoming more popular i think.

    Uncle Samuel in reply to PolitiJim. | March 25, 2012 at 3:52 pm

    Obama has at least a dozen slick and dirty election tricks up his sleeves.

      Uncle Samuel in reply to Uncle Samuel. | March 25, 2012 at 3:57 pm

      As we have seen election fraud is possible from both ends and in the middle:
      1. Voter and vote fraud
      2. Count and manipulation of machines through hacking and software
      3. Media opinion-shaping and psychological warfare (PSYOPS)
      4. Party deal-making
      5. Intimidation and coercion
      6. Block/Organized vote
      7. Violence, riots, sit-ins, etc. only seen in WI, so far, but threatened by both Jimmy Hoffa Jr and Soros. American Spring like Arab Spring threatened by some, like Sharpton, Bell, Wright and other Black Muslim (Nation of Islam) NAACP, etc. leaders.

      We need a NATIONAL VOTER REGISTRY WITH Photo ID. Just a local check of Photo ID is not enough.

      A National Voter Registry and Photo IDs prevents voting:
      1 – By wanted criminals
      2 – Illegal aliens
      3 – Deceased
      4 – Multiple votes by registering multiple residences voting through absentee ballots
      5 – Multiple votes through aka variations – For example, this one name has many aka variations and residences just in FL: http://www.veromi.com/FL/Pamela-Rhodes.aspx)

      No wonder Holder/Obama are fighting so hard to prevent Photo IDs. Just imagine their opposition to a National Voter Registry.

I believe Newt has already said that another candidate may enter the race. I don’t think the media was paying that close attention to his comments though.

But in no way do I want the establishment to blame the conservatives if this happens. It is their fault they didn’t put up a better candidate. If Romney is the nominee, I will in no way be a donor to his campaign. The best I can do is hold my nose and vote. Staying home would be preferable, but this election is way too serious to stay home.

The best we can hope for with Romney is to manage the decay. The establishment will continue with their spending ways and Romney will just rubber stamp it.

    Uncle Samuel in reply to Scorpio51. | March 25, 2012 at 6:57 pm

    IT is a truth universally acknowledged, that a single conservative candidate in
    possession of a good fortune (a healthy campaign chest, supporters, promising political credentials), must be in want of an attack from the opposing liberal left, (and from his or her own supposedly loyal friends) of such great volume, vehemence, and vituperation, that it produces all manner of wavering doubt and fearful indecision to the minds of the voters.

Other than the reasons the Prof. pointed out in the original post, there isn’t really a good reason for hoping for a brokered convention: What could be the results? One of the remaining candidates gets picked and the supporters of his opponents will be more disenfranchised that they would be if one was elected outright. (I highly doubt there would be some deal where everyone was happy).

Assuming the current ratio of delegates doesn’t changes drastically (just enough to keep Romney from clinching) what happens? If Santorum or Gingrich gets picked without the other immediately being named as the VP over one half of the GOP voters will be shat upon.

That leaves the option of picking someone who hasn’t run through the primary. Who do we have? Palin? I like her but she needs a Senate spot or an admin position to be taken seriously. Christie? Another one I like, and probably our best outsider. But he’s sort of a Gingrich/Romney mix. That either could be very good or very bad.

I’m becoming more certain that this will be an election that’s all about picking a lesser of two evils. There is no conservative Arthur to awaken and save us. There is no Reagan this time around.

But despite what I said earlier about there not being a ticket that would make everyone happy, I’d like to put forward my best guess that would make nearly everyone happy.

POTUS: Romney
VPOTUS: Rubio
Press Sec: Gingrich
Tres Sec: Paul
Interior Sec: Palin
Atty Gen: Christie
and
Amb. to the Vatican: Santorum

Paul Ryan stays where he is, simply because he’s in the right spot, right now. I think he’s great, but I don’t know if he can do more net good elsewhere.

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