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Good omen

Good omen

A state senate race in a normally safe Democratic district in New York has Democrats worried.  (h/t reader Tom)

Down to the wire in too-close-to-call Southern Brooklyn Senate race (emphasis mine):

The too-close-to-call state Senate race in southern Brooklyn was down to the  wire Wednesday, with Republican David  Storobin holding a slim lead over Democrat Lew Fidler.

Final results in the race to replace disgraced Sen.  Carl Kruger hinge on hundreds of absentee and paper ballots that will be  counted next week, and both camps claimed victory. As of 7:30 p.m. Wednesday,  Storobin held a lead of 143 votes.

The close tally reflected a strong  showing by Storobin, a lawyer, against Fidler,  a City Councilman who had been considered the favorite. It capped an all out  effort by Republican activists to repeat the upset scored by Rep. Bob Turner on much  of the same southern Brooklyn turf.

Many Fidler supporters may have assumed he was a shoo-in, but the race grew  tighter as Storobin, who immigrated as a child from the Soviet Union , gained  support in Russian neighborhoods and among socially conservative Orthodox Jews  who were inundated with attacks against Fidler.

“We had an overwhelming outpouring of support in the district from rabbis in  the Orthodox community to Russian immigrants who identify very strongly with  David,” said Storobin spokesman David  Simpson.

The unexpected tight race in a district that is heavily Democratic is the  latest bad news for Senate Democrats in their efforts to reclaim the majority  this fall.

“It’s a bad omen,” said Sen. Diane  Savino (D-Staten Island) “We should not be having to compete for races in  Brooklyn. It’s the most Democratic county in the state.”

Blogger Orthodox Pundit (!) says it reflect anti-incumbent sentiment:

I think that on the Orthodox front, more than anything, the last few elections showed that there is a strong anti-establishment mood in the Orthodox community. There is an insurgent segment that hates the inevitability mantle created by politicians around their candidates.

I think this is a good omen for November.

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Comments

From his mouth to G-d’s ears!

If it’s too close to call, is it close enough to steal?

    gs in reply to gs. | March 22, 2012 at 2:19 pm

    I think this is a good omen for November.

    Regardless of who wins, the closeness is a good omen, but one among many.

    Meanwhile, consumer confidence is up, leading indicators are up, and unemployment claims are down.

    But Obama’s reelection probability has edged below 60% at Intrade. Go figure.

    The outcome will be entirely clear and obvious in hindsight. 😉

    Seriously: It’s almost always an uphill struggle to dislodge an incumbent President. Obama is in better shape than he was five months ago, but the election remains worth contesting.

      JackRussellTerrierist in reply to gs. | March 22, 2012 at 3:25 pm

      Yep, he’s in better shape because of the lying slimestream media and the foot-shooting ‘pubs.

      First of all, I’ll believe the economy is soaring again when Obama is given the boot. That’s what’s happening; businesses are feeling good because they feel Obama is on the fast way out of the White House.

    persecutor in reply to gs. | March 22, 2012 at 5:06 pm

    Only if you have a reason to plan for it in the first place. They thought this was a slam dunk like the Congressional seat vacated by Congressman “My email account was hacked!”.

      True, but absentee and paper ballots remain to be counted. When Democrats are in charge, they have a knack for finding a lot of them after close races. I presume that a recount is also a possibility.

      We know the drill: if the voting was close, keep counting till you get a lead, then stop.

      In any event, per our host, the closeness of the race is an encouraging sign.

I’m not sure this is an omen for Democrats. Orthodox Jews and Russian Jews have been trending Republican for a decade. Russian Jews were swing voters before then. What this means for the rest of the electorate remains to be seen.

    NC Mountain Girl in reply to edgeofthesandbox. | March 22, 2012 at 1:49 pm

    There’s an old saw that American Jews live like Episcopalians and vote like Puerto Rico. With their experience under Communism I can see that the new wave of Russian Jews might vote more like Cubans.

      JackRussellTerrierist in reply to NC Mountain Girl. | March 22, 2012 at 3:27 pm

      I used to live near a community with a lot of Russians and Eastern Euros living in it. Every single one of them I ever spoke to detested ‘rats and considered them to be nothing but commies in drag.

        With respect to the Russian vote, and realizing that it’s a bit of a tangent, ideologically Russians are fiscal conservatives foreign policy hawks, mixed on social issues. In the 90s Bill Clinton was personally popular with all Russians pretty much everywhere. Pat Buchanan did well in Republican primaries in 1992, and the Bush was seen as selling out Israel (“[expletive] Jews, they don’t vote for us anyway” comment). Additionally, with welfare reform Democrats had us convinced that Republicans want to throw granny off the cliff. That didn’t happen, though, and, I suppose, you can say that after 9/11 Russian Jews came to their ideological home. But “swing voters” is probably the best description.

Send little Debbie in there or get Hillary to promise them something yet again..yeah, that’ll turn the tide.

    JackRussellTerrierist in reply to clarice. | March 22, 2012 at 3:33 pm

    Yeah. I think that black chick raving on ’08 election night about how The Won was going to pay her rent and fill up her gas tank might not be so quick to believe the promise of goodies anymore. Not that that would stop her from voting for him again because he’s black and just in case he changes his mind and decides to fulfill his promises to Holder’s people.

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