Endgame assessment:
Very good night for Romney, he has all but beaten back the Santorum surge. It’s hard to know if outspending Santorum did the trick; Romney spent only about 1/3 going after Santorum in Michigan as he spent going after Newt in Florida, and didn’t need to bring in the establishment media and political cavalry.
Santorum also had a series of bad days, starting with the debate, then his comments about “vomiting” over JFK’s speech and the college “snob” remark. The robocall seeking to have Democratic union members come to his aid because Romney didn’t support the auto bailout was a low point in a campaign season filled with low points.
The cumulative effect was that Santorum never showed he was ready for prime time. That may sound harsh, but it’s true.
BTW, Newt is looking pretty smart staying out of Arizona and Michigan, and looking to the South on Super Tuesday.
—————————————-
Michigan % Reporting – 88
Romney – 41
Santorum – 38
Paul – 12
Gingrich – 7
—————————————-
10:17 Fox News calls Michigan for Romney
Detailed Fox News Exit Poll data.
Santorum doing better among liberal Democrats than Catholics
Santorum failed to win Catholic vote in either state.
Santorum leading big among Democrats, Romney among Republicans.
9:24 – the numbers have been holding steady at Romney with a 3% lead, Karl Rove says based on county reports, it will be Romney by several percent.
9 p.m. – CNN calls Arizona for Romney at the close of the polls
———————
The polls close at 8 p.m. Eastern in most of Michigan, 9 p.m elsewhere in Michigan and in Arizona.
Arizona is expected to go easily to Romney, so the news of the night will be Michigan. The big story there is Romney’s relative weakness, and Santorum’s robocall trying to get pro-auto bailout Democrats to vote for him.
I’ll post results as they come in, but until then, in Wisconsin the True the Vote effort reports that there are enough questionable or clearly invalid signatures to deny the recall, BUT only by a hair. It remains to be seen if the Wisconsin GAB takes True the Vote objections into account, since Gov. Walker himself is not contesting whether there are enought signatures for a recall. I’ll have more on this as the recall challenge proceeds.
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Comments
[…] it Ariztopia? All the polls close at 9:00 p.m. ET there […]
Over the last two decades, Michigan has had the worst economics of any state in the country, actually going backward. It would appear that this correlates with the average political savvy of its population.
A couple of funny things about the robo-calls. First, Romney did almost the same thing to McCain in Florida in 2008. His campaign sponsored last minute robo-calls accusing McCain of wanting to kill Social Security when the fact was that McCain and Romney had taken the exact same stands on Social Security (a precursor to Romney’s attacks on Perry?).
Second, before the 2008 Michigan primary, Romney was big-time in favor of government support of the Big Three via subsidies, special tax favors, etc. Today, this might be known as “pandering”. It wasn’t until after the government takeover of GM and Chrysler, and the abrogation of a hundred years of bankruptcy law that Romney decided to oppose the auto industry bailouts.
Third (couple++), Romney’s got major cajones for accusing ANYONE of dirty tricks. Romney’s done more dirty tricks than a two dollar hooker at Mardi Gras.
Due to the nature of the Michigan primary, (open), not a lot of stock should be put into it.
The same goes for every “open” primary which by the way did/does not include Florida. Besides, 2008 is ancient history…
If 2008 is Ancient History, we should be shopping for the 3-4 year old vote.
Nevermind, Democrats are already doing that : I wanna I wanna House, I wanna I wanna Diploma, I wanna I wanna Job, I wann wanna Doctor.
Sure sure there you go. Now Please step in the room and mark X on this paper so we can keep you warm and out of the cold. You dont wanna be cold do you? We’ll feed you too , here have some gruel.
You nailed it Steve… Michigan was the first example of democrat mischief making which will be a staple of the Fall campaign.
The way I look at the big picture, using these three factors that are indisputable:
1) Half the nation is smarter than the other half and as such, 2) Half the nation will dominate the other half although being smart may not reveal the entire story, you have to add cunning and.. 3) Half the nation will attempt to screw the other half.
If we take a slightly closer look at #1, and if it’s indeed true, wouldn’t Obama’s call for every one to go to college be impractical since less than half the population is not college material? Of course if the standards are changed due to affirmative action, then the country continues to be dumbed down, yes?
#2 and #3 really do not need further discussion since they play the major roles in the scheme of things. The democrats are prime examples of them in play with the resulting damage to the overall population.
I really hope that this campaign gets nailed down next Tuesday so that the focus can be redirected to the defeat of the Chicago mob currently in charge of our lives. Focus needs to shift to evicting the Obama regime and save what is left of the nation…
Santorum would have lost by more if democrat crossover voters had not supported him. WNDU out of South Bend IN reports that 10% of the voters were democrats. WNDU also reports that Santorum won 53% of those voters. Some were unabashed, gushing Obama supporters (follow this link– http://www.wndu.com/mobi?storyid=140824113 — and don’t just read the article, but watch the video).
Berrien and Cass counties are in the extreme SW corner of the state, bordering on Indiana near Lake Michigan.
OT. Anyone know what is going on with free republic web site? Professor, do you have any info on what the problem is?
I saw a tweet that it has been down today; hopes were for it to be back up tonight. 🙂
Apparently, their server(s) went down. They’re back up as of a couple of hours ago.
Multiplying through the vote by ideology cross tabs CNN put up several minutes ago (from memory, and this is an approximation since the numbers are pre-rounded) has Romney over 40 and Santorum under 38.
Sounds like you know your stuff. You should try blogging some time.
Karl Rove just said based on the votes and districts reported so far, he’s willing to declare Romney the winner.
He could barely contain his glee.
Rove can’t be gleeful – according to gs, Rove was behind Bachmann, then Santorum.
RE: Arizona. Who could have guessed that Mormons were such anti-Catholic bigots.
IMO…I would tend to use the term “loyal” not bigots.
Loyal is fair. It’s just funny that we criticize blacks for voting for Obama mostly because he’s black but have no trouble with Mormons who vote solely based on religion (assuming that most Mormons are pro-life, unlike Romney). On the other hand, as reported above, Catholics in Michigan at least, were more willing to vote for a Mormon than Mormons have been willing to vote for Catholics.
How do you know why Mormons voted for Romney?
Or is that just a bigoted opinion that they did?
LOL Reading too fast & thought you said *bigfooted* opinion.
Idle hands/ devil/ etc. Y’All google “Mormons, Big Foot” for the grins when you get a chance.
He has a special significance in Mormon culture.
Sorry. (No, I’m not) 😉
Wow. Lots of reasons to dislike Romney, but insulting Arizona Mormons ain’t cool. Professor, this ok with you?
Happy Bunny has a quote for you.
Too bad Catholics are such anti-Catholic bigots: Romney won the Catholic vote in both states.
LOL… Of course you might want to add the fact that Santorum is pretty good at, “stepping into it.”
Like Newt, off the cuff remarks sometimes backfire badly…
Hope you enjoy a Romney nomination Prof. You sure defended him against Santorum this week.
I didn’t defend Romney over anything, I merely pointed out the obvious about Santorum’s self-destructive comments and tactics.
Agreed. Santorum’s take on the JFK speech was just awful, for example.
Why can’t it be that Right is Right and Wrong is Wrong? Why does it have to be taken that someone is favoring one over the other just by posting the FACTS? I think that the Professor has been fair in to the “other” candidates. While Newt is my choice, I do want to decide between Santorum and Romney as to which will be my second choice and I want to know the TRUTH, the good, bad and ugly and while I gather you are a Santorum supporter he does have some GBU going on as well, not just Romney or Newt.
Professor Jacobson isn’t suppose to have a favorite or an opinion? He isn’t a classically trained professional journalist with the highest possible ethical standards working for the New York Times. He is a blogger with a viewpoint.
Besides, Santorum is an asshole.
You my friend have really brightened up my evening. Santorum certainly did “step in it,” didn’t he?
He did mention one thing though in his speech last evening ant that was, “…bottom up,” as to process. I hope that Romney will take heed of this as this is the only way to finely hone the operation of any organization including government.
Here’s my headline from before #MI polls closed: ‘Santorum Up in First Raw Votes Out of Michigan’. Santorum’s making his (concession?) speech now. At least I was optimistic.
A social conservative is a vote for Obama.
We need LESS government in private lives not more. Unless you’re a fake conservative.
Government stay out of my pocketbook AND out of my bedroom.
You don’t get to define what a conservative is, Tuttle.
Well, I trudged to the local elementary school today to put in my vote for Gingrich in the Michigan primary. My sister and her husband also voted for Newt. Looks like we were about the only ones though… This election is really going to stink.
Santorum’s “snob” remark, and really his whole statement, made me throw up a little. There he was, sitting with a perfect opportunity to really call out what’s wrong with Obama’s philosophy, he starts of strong, and then just ruined it by essentially saying every college is a liberal indoctrination mill. Stupid, just plain stupid.
Not a comment on Santorum’s statement at all, but other than Hillsdale, can you name one that isn’t?
Indiana Wesleyan-I’m sure there are hundreds more.
Especially in Michigan, home to Hillsdale College, one of the few (only?) conservative American colleges.
Romney wins his home state by 3 percent? I’d say that’s a win for Sweatervest.
My reaction exactly – Michigan should have been a Romney cakewalk.
Romney increased his percentage AND vote total from 2008. Spin that.
He was born there, all right, but last lived there in 1969.
“Romney increased his percentage AND vote total from 2008. Spin that.
He was born there, all right, but last lived there in 1969”
Says the spinner.
1) Who gives a damn about 2008? You site a 3 year old campaign where Romney LOST to the guy who lost against Barry without explaining the relevance to this campaign where he effectively lost his (self described) home state.
2) Your boy is the one refers to Michigan as his home state not I; your “zinger” is all noise and little substance.
Kinda like Romney.
Well, Drudge, Ann Coulter and the rest of the RINOS can congratulate themselves for destroying the Republican party.
They sneer at normal Americans while convincing those same Americans that another elitist RINO is the answer to Obama.
I will vote for Romney, if I have to, but I am sickened by what blind, mindless Americans think is a leader.
So sad for America.
So sad.
Well no way will I vote for Romney. Among the many, many other reasons, I will not vote for a draft dodger to be the commander in chief of my children in the armed services.
…and yet Romney is the ONLY candidate with true leadership experience and successful experience at that.
Time for you to take your blinders off…
Grumpy, Romney is definitely a leader in:
– ruthless business practices
– appropriating billions in taxpayer funds to bail out his government, business, and Olympics
– liberalism while claiming conservatism
– having no absolute conviction, principle or position
– lying…eight times in the last two debates, ads in lies.
– dirty campaigns, using media to attack opponent, leagues of commenters typing nasty smears on blogs
– whining when others attack him
All of the above is documented.
I was all ready for a post of Mitt as a Kitten who lost his Mittens. Oh well. He found them.
“Looking pretty smart”? He’s lost all but one nominating contest, and Santorum’s beaten him more times than vice versa. If Newt gets any “smarter”, he’ll get out of the race.
Actually, that last sentence works without the quotation marks, too.
I wonder if this will be it.
Why get all excited by primaries if none of them are pushing back on Obama?
Perhaps there will be a collective yawn and people will coalesce behind Mitt.
For those keeping score at home, both states tonight are on pace to increase their vote total by 17% over their 2008 totals.
So much for that talking point.
Must be a good night for Mitt because the pro Romney commenters are back after a long dry spell.
That’s a big 10-4, Professor.
Yep, we’re back. Even me. 🙂 Although, I’m heading to bed. Very little I could add which hasn’t already been said. This isn’t the end, but it may finally be the beginning of the end. Super Tuesday really is do or die for the anti-Romney contingent.
I agree that Gingrich was wise to pass over these two states. He never really had a chance; with Santorum’s implausible surge to “frontrunner” status on the decline (I expect him to take an abrupt nosedive in national and Super Tuesday state polls over the next few days), Newt has one last, 11th hour and 59th minute bite at the apple. Can he surge a third time in only a week, with no debates scheduled? It seems unlikely, but stranger things have happened.
However, if Romney wins in every state next week, except (possibly) Georgia, there will be little plausible reason to prolong this circus any further.
It’s nice that you’re happy, BB, but I still am at a loss to understand why anyone would support Romney, and wonder why you seem to show up only to do campaign punditry for Romney.
So, successful executive experience doesn’t count?
So, personal responsibility doesn’t count?
So, not “stepping in it” badly doesn’t count?
As for me, I’ll take the successful leader over career politicians both of whom were DC insiders…
well its easy to not step in it when “it” changes its opinions so often.
I won’t vote for anyone who flat out says he likes the progressive tax setup.
Severe conservatives who own four expensive cars, like trees only at their proper height, and know lots of wealthy NASCAR owners never step in it.
Small correction, Badger. There is not a debate, but Mike Huckabee will be having a forum with Romney, Santorum, and our best hope to turn this mess around (guess who that is) Saturday. More info here
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/02/28/huckabee-will-host-a-presidential-forum-on-fox-news/?partner=rss&emc=rss
NEWT!
I think it’s more fun to sit back, lurk with propped feet, popcorn and a smile and space my pro-Romnia out over time.
This more removed approach has enabled me to more closely observe the progressively desperate logical contortions of the “anybody but Romney” and/or “there is still hope for the third coming of Newt!!” constituencies contained within this small community.
If one only takes a brief remove from the day-to-day parrying and posting here, they will easily witness many LI denizens actively working themselves through the Seven Stages of Grief. Some recent examples:
1. Shock or Disbelief– As much as I respect the person here, almost any post by Hope Change captures the essence of Stage One grief. No one expresses the shock that someone cannot see the obvious merits of Newt as a candidate, or the absolute disbelief that every day that passes closes the walls around him tighter (“Come on people, there is still a chance!!), better than Hope.
2. Denial–
3. Bargaining–
5. Anger–
7. Acceptance and Hope–
^^Well, there’s at least “acceptance” there, if not “hope.”
Willard can place Mother Theresa on the bottom of the ticket and I won’t vote for him. Why? Because I will never vote for “The Father of Socialized Medicine in this Country.”
When Willard doesn’t win it will be the end of the RINO’s. This is their last stand. My generation was the ones who benefited from Reagan. It is those of us who came of age during Reagan who are fighting the hardest against socialist Republicans.
The GOPE believe that if they can just beat back those of us who came of age during Reagan that they’ve won the war, WRONG! We are on a mission to keep the conservative dream alive and bring it to future generations of Americans.
My grandparents didn’t come to America to have me accept socialism. They crossed the ocean in steerage for a better life not so much for their children but for their children’s children and that’s me.
It’s bigger than me this fight for conservatism against the socialists in the Republican party. I am driven by the memory of my grandparents. It is a debt I have to pay that the elites in the Republican party can never compete with.
Willard is going down in flames. Bet on it. Aloha!
I came “of age” at the same time. Apparently, we didn’t learn the same lesson from RR. While you are busy fighting Republicans, I am working my ass off to take down the real socialists.
Socialism didn’t exist when my forebears came to America. They did pass on a valuable lesson though, and I remember it well: If you want real freedom and lasting liberty, sometimes you have to ally yourself with the French.
Never before has “going down in flames” looked so much like (duh) “winning.”
Cheers to you as well!
Everyday another Rombot reminds me once again why I don’t support Mitt the Twit.
Excuse me, I have to go max out my contribution to Newt now and just think, he’ll have your “cop an attitude” in part to thank for it.
Have a nice day. See ya in Georgia!
Every time a Romney detractor feels the need to buttress their little mental gems with “Mittens,” “Rombot,” “Mitt the Twit” or any other variation of the same, a little part of me smiles inside. We all use the tools we have.
Look you can spend your money however you like, but don’t max your limit yet; I have plenty more attitude where that came from!
Thanks, you too! Re: Georgia- Heaven help Newt if he doesn’t win his (other) home state by double digits (sorry about the whole Virginia thing btw, I know that still stings a little…)
Keep it up, what a great strategy: bashing the people you might need to win over. Just like your boss. Glad you are on Romney’s team.
First, thanks Say_What. I am more glad you are not on Team Romney than I am glad to be on it. Fortunately for you, the team you are on “is greater than the sum of its parts…”
Second, I don’t think you understand the difference between strategies and tactics.
Third, you act like we need you. With all of the flailing you and yours do against Romney, it’s a real wonder he doesn’t either want to listen to or talk to any of you. Why would he give a damn about any of you? You hate him and have made no secret of the fact. I wouldn’t listen to you either if I were him. I wouldn’t try to talk to you either. Most of you are just mad that you are not getting your way.
Finally, “Might need to win over”? Are you kidding? Every contest I see where he either wins, or comes in second, in spite of your collective, petulant foot stomping does more to convince me he doesn’t need to win you over. Vote for Newt. Stay home. Donate to Barack. Shake your fist. Make a statement. You have said it yourself, no one cares.
Even your big supporter McCain thinks your guy is handling it wrong and will lose as a result.
Glad you don’t need me, that will save me time campaigning and $2,500 in contributions for the general if your guy gets the nod! BTW does Mitt know what a big help you are out here turning off voters for his campaign:)
Lol, oh now you want to listen to John McCain?? I’m sorry, I couldn’t hear what you were saying over the sound of how awesome Newt et alia is doing right now…
Awww…the world weeps. And we were so close to earning your vote too…
Meanwhile, overheard at Romney Central: “Governor Romney, it looks like we won’t actually be able to count on either Say_What’s all-important endorsement or his life savings!” As much of a blow this will be to the Romney campaigns coffers, no one cares.
Back at Romney HQ: “Sir, it appears we are steadily losing the critical Legal Insurrection vote all thanks to the works of one man!”
Please, like you needed any help being turned off of his campaign. Again though, no one cares.
Woodman of the World,
True anger at evil that is backed by Biblical conviction is something that will not change. It may be moderated by pity and a sadness for lost souls, but it is an eternal anger at the wrongness and destructiveness of sin and injustice that will stand until repentance and justice has been done… despite forgiveness, sin and wrong cannot and should not ever be embraced…or right and truth compromised.
For this reason, I will never vote for a fomenter of spiritual and social evil, i.e., Islam or Mormonism.
Romney is like his religion, his politics and his business practices,… clean and pretty on the outside, but corrupt, distortion, sinister, deceptive, shaky and indefensible on the inside. He backed down and supported every radical social and socialist agenda in Massachusetts. There are spiritual prophecies that cause the Mormons to covet the presidency and hence the hordes of frenzied typists on the blogs putting lies and nasty aspersions on Newt and Rick Santorum.
Obama has also been shaped in the image of Islam, his religion, and of his business and political practices. His three muslim fathers and marxist family on all sides…have created an angry man equal to Hitler and Stalin in ideological ferocity, ruthlessness and single-minded determination. Look up the psychological profiles and signature analyses that have been done.
We become like the law that we serve – the Law of God or the lawlessness of self, world and the devil.
For these reasons, I could not ever vote for either Romney or Obama at gunpoint.
Samuel the Uncle,
Wait a second, I am lost… Is it the anger or the evil that is “backed by Biblical conviction” because the last subject in that sentence was…nevermind…
Seriously, you just went all hellfire and brimstone, wrath and eternal damnation up in this piece. Would that I had the patience right now.
If it weren’t for your blatant bigotry, I would actually tear this torpid tripe apart but seeing as how I am in no mood to be beaten over the head with a jewel-encrusted Jesus bat, I am going to let your self-righteous sermonizing slide.
A Parthian shot my friend: You seem to be confusing the “Laws of God” with the “teachings of Jesus.” Spend some more time in the New Testament (“love thy neighbor as thyself” etc), it might do you some good.
Actually, the Law/Commandments are perfectly congruent with the teachings of Jesus…who is the word incarnate and alive. Jesus did not invalidate the law.
However, both Islam and Mormonism add to, subtract from and distort the Word of God. They are one man’s invented confabulation of Judaism and Christianity. One is a little less violent, but no less dangerous spiritually.
Both men have a sense that the presidency is their right for spiritual reasons. Look up the White Horse prophecy…. read about Jos. Smith’s brief run for the presidency before he was murdered in jail for corruption in business and his cult activities.
If it weren’t for your self-righteous window dressing of Christian values, I would say you sound almost exactly like some of the guys from al-Qaeda and the Taliban that I have been exposed to in the last ten years.
It’s neither the Law/Commandments nor the teachings of Jesus that are either incongruent or inconsistent with one another but it is, rather, you who is both with both. Your read on Christianity in no way reflects Jesus’ actual teachings or actual words. You are fundamentally intolerant of Mormons, Muslims (and Lord knows what else), yet you fail both to understand or admit how hypocritical and blatantly judgmental you are actually being or that this is in no way what Jesus preached or intended.
Take the sermon somewhere else Brother Samuel, I am not the one. I get plenty of radicalism, plenty of religious extremism and plenty of the mindless theocratic justification for political posturing here at work. These guys are professionals, you are not.
Reply II
Nothing self-righteous about it – all true righteousness is imputed from GOD through the death of His righteous lamb without blemish, Jesus Christ. It’s not earned or deserved – ever.
But, the point is, we must not compromise Scripture and Truth.
Well, WoodnWorld, you and I have had many long conversations.
And your current air of above-it-all superiority would lead the uninformed reader to think that it isn’t YOUR country that’s in trouble right now.
And yet, it is. YOUR country.
Grief at the terrible situation our grandchildren may face if we don’t fix this would not be at all unseemly in YOU, WoodnWorld. No matter which candidate you support.
So I stand with the George Washington energy as I understand it. I stand with the “boys of Pointe d’Hoc,” the men who took the beaches. I stand with my uncle, the bombardier, who tells me, “freedom isn’t free.” I stand with the RAF in the Battle of Britain. I stand with the Poles who battled for 10 years to get the Soviets out. I stand with the Falun Gong in China, and anyone else who longs for freedom and a better life for EVERYONE. I stand with the person who works in a government office and just does their job every day with community spirit and no corruption. I stand with Frodo, Aragorn, Galadriel, Gandalf and Bilbo. I don’t restrict my allegiances to non-fictional characters.
When the future of our beloved country is in trouble, it is unseemly for a man who claims to be part of our military to affect an air of condescension and superiority toward the people struggling to make things right.
When your soul wakes up, watch this: Newt’s Citadel talk: http://conservatives4newt.blogspot.com/2012/02/speaker-gingrich-on-conservative.html The Conservative Intellectual Tradition in America – at the Citadel
Or — if you want your soul to wake up, watch it. This is the future of YOUR country.
Yes, yes Hope. Too many conversations. All saying the same thing. It is getting to the point where I could parody one of your posts without ever referring to any one of them directly. They all say the same thing. I like you more than most on here but none of your shilling for Newt has done anything to inform me or change my mind one iota. He gives a good speech. So does Barack Obama.
I will admit though that you are a better advocate for Newt than Newt is for Newt.
Einstein defined insanity as…
So I don’t get the excitement. So the establishment Republicans have determined that it is his turn now (think, Dole, McCain), and are pushing a wishy washy out of touch moderate who was born with a silver spoon in his mouth and has never taken it out and we are at least for now stuck with him. But this time, a group that we could always count on to vote for the true conservative candidate have decided to support him because they practice the same religion (Arizona won due to massive Mormon Support). I know a lot of Baptists pulled the lever for Carter and look how well that turned out. SO please if you only support him because you share the same relgion, perhaps you could rethink your decision. IMHO, Santorum is much more likely to be for the things you are for than Mitt. And for those of you that think he is the most electable, do you remember when Bush the elder lost re-election? One of the pivotal moments was when he asked what the grocery price reading thing was, indiciating that he was out of touch. Romney has made several similar goof ups as well and will be easily targeted as the super rich dude against poor obama that stuggled to get where he is. And let’s not get started on Romneycare. So instead of celebrating, perhaps sackcloth and ashses is more appropriate.
“The cumulative effect was that Santorum never showed he was ready for prime time. That may sound harsh, but it’s true.”
That statement sounds idiotic, but it’s false.
The problem is the media, not Santorum….they will hang anyone they want, misquoting, slanting, smearing…it’s disgusting.
Then there are are thousands of nasty little hacks typing away, flooding the comment sections of every blog with vile Alinsky tactic sound bites.
The media, even PBS is owned by the Romney/Obama/Soros/Bush axis.
What can reasonable people do?
Professor,
I have a question for you. Can you chart for me a realistic path for Newt to get the nomination? I like Newt a lot, I think he’d be a hell of a president. I like Santorum too, he could be a hell of a president. Romney’s poison to Republican hopes as I outlined in a post you linked to the other day. I think he could be an OK president given a conservative Congress, but I really don’t see how he can win against Obama. The idea of a brokered convention is, IMO, foolish, just logistically. Even if zombie Ronald Reagan rose from the dead and won such a convention, how would he establish on the ground campaigns in at least 30 states AND raise 500 million dollars in just 2 months? (Obama’s deep pockets are exaggerated in the press, a billion dollar war chest is a fantasy of libs, but his pockets are still very deep)
As I said, I know you like Newt, I like Newt, but just as a practical matter, how does he win the nomination? Can you tell me because I’ve been turning it over and over in my head and I just don’t see a realistic path for him.
I think it may be time for Santorum to call up Newt and say “Let’s talk”. Completely objectively, I would like the call to go the other way, but what is, is, and I think it’s finally time for conservatives (what the MSM derides as the “not-Romney vote”) to coalesce behind Santorum. If I was Rick, I’d offer Newt carte blanche- VP, SecState, whatever he wants but ideally VP with a mission to spearhead the effort to downsize government, if Newt throws his support behind Santorum. Paul has already sold his soul to Romney for…something. I wish it could be the other way around, but it’s not.
You’re a smart guy, tell me I’m wrong. More than that, tell me how I’m wrong. Please. If wishes were horses, beggars would ride, and if pigs flew, we’d all carry metal umbrellas. We have to deal in reality. Convince me the reality I see is wrong.
Many states left to vote. Frontrunner status brings in more donations. That’s realistic enough for me. Santorum is not on the same hemisphere as Newt let alone the same planet. Don’t be so quick to throw in the towel.
Weirddave,
I don’t have an educated answer for you, but…
Have you listened to this speech by Newt setting out a winning strategy for conservatives in 2009?
http://kitmantv.blogspot.com/2009/11/part-ii-part-iii-part-iv.html
Have you heard this description of Newt, from one who should know?
https://legalinsurrection.com/2011/11/msm-becoming-unhinged-at-thought-of-newt/
Only with God on our side can America be helped.
We have mis-used our splendid freedom and are in need of repentance and return to the unchanging Law (Deuteronomy 5:6-21, 6:4-25) that undergirds our Constitution, Rights, justice and that of all good societies.
The rise of Islam is but a symptom of our fall as the Old Testament teaches. They are but a rod in the hand of The Almighty (Isaiah 10:5). They will fall by the sword of God’s Word only, not the sword of man. (Isaiah 31:8-9, Nehemiah 8:1, II Chronicles 7:14, 20:12, 34:14)
Hi Weirddave — no one can convince anyone else. The Professor can’t do this for you.
You must find this out for yourself. And you will only get it if you’re ready.
Here is a path to the nomination as described by NEWt to Matt Lauer yesterday, Feb 28th. http://conservatives4newt.blogspot.com/2012/02/newt-calls-out-matt-lauer-for-quoting.html
This is about our vital, essential freedoms, that are being taken away by lawless Leftists in Washington, D.C.
So which candidate is most likely to be able to help restore freedom is the only question.
Here’s the link to the Citadel talk. It is AMAZING. The meaning of America. The history of America to secure our liberties. http://conservatives4newt.blogspot.com/2012/02/speaker-gingrich-on-conservative.html The Conservative Intellectual Tradition in America
“These are the times that try men’s souls” is happening NOW.
If George Washington had looked at “reality,” there have been no America. George Washington wasn’t looking at “reality.” He was looking at what he must do to secure freedom. The Citadel talk explains this.
WE are MAKING reality.
If we’re going to give our grandchildren the free life WE were given, we must be part of the long line of people who love freedom and who looked only at the goal of liberty.
Only you can do this.
You guys keep trying to convince me to vote for Newt. That’s not the question here. The question is HOW Newt gets nominated. I haven’t seen any answer to that yet. With both Newt and Santorum in the race, neither guy is likely to get to 1144. Best case scenario is a brokered convention, and anyone who thinks a magical conservative will emerge from that is high. A BC will go with the candidate who is the most organized and best funded on the argument of “reality”, and that ain’t Newt. Or Santorum. I’d love to have Newt be the nominee. Again, tell me how that happens.
Rather than listen to another one of Hope’s (wonderful) links, let me cut to the chase:
I have been asking this very same question for a little over a month now. There is no answer anyone will give you here that will satisfy you. We are not supposed to look at evidence, facts or the math. We are, however, supposed to believe that, once again, “out of the billowing smoke and dust of tweets and trivia [will] emerge[] Gingrich.” Newt is going to win Georgia and then magic will happen… I am not saying it can’t or won’t happen, only that it is unlikely.
I was once open to the idea of batting for Newt when I thought him winning was actually possible. With each week that has passed since South Carolina I have become increasingly convinced it’s not.
I told you. this is your work. No one can do this for someone else.
I posted the link of Newt with Matt Lauer. Henry Hawkins gave you another description.
Support whatever candidate you want.
What I’m trying to do is give you the resources to become an informed citizen, capable of defending your freedoms.
Power to the people. The little people. Power in our hands.
Some people are not ready yet to understand this.
Fortunately, if and when we fix this, their lives will be improved along with everyone else’s.
No one can do this for you, Weirddave.
If you’re sincere, I’m sorry for your confusion. But this is an inside job.
See Weird? I mean, come on. Hope posted a link. With Matt Lauer. He/she/it is just trying to inform you. Those links, and all the others, are all you need to know to make you “capable” to “defend” your “freedom(s).” Hope can’t free your mind for you, and Hope certainly doesn’t need to explain to you how exactly they see Newt winning the nomination, only you can do that for yourself.
Hope’s sorry for your “confusion.” But only if you are “sincere.” He/she/it can only point you towards the path to brilliance; they can’t actually make you walk it. Only the true, penitent, seeker of wisdom can Hope to become self-actualized. It’s the burden they bear. Trying so hard, suffering so much.
Sure, “some” people aren’t “ready” to “understand” that the one little link Hope posted (or the 500 little links Hope posted, whatever) is the key to fixing this great nation but, “fortunately” with a little more introspection and maybe another twenty speeches or so, you may yet evolve.
I’ve never considered Santorum ready for prime time to begin with. If he had not coaxed liberals to cross party lines to vote for him in Michigan, he would have lost by a wider margin. If you can’t win fair and square, then don’t bother. Aside from that, Santorum just doesn’t have the depth to be president. I’m sticking w Gingrich.
…and that’s just a taste of what the democrat attack apparatus is capable of. There won’t be anything “fair ‘n square” in the coming campaign IF we are to be successful with the eviction of the current regime…
I will not advocate mimicking the liberal mindset and behavior. When you get even with someone, that’s what you are-even. No better than them.
Now We Know Why Not Santorum
http://newsok.com/mona-charen-now-we-know-why-not-santorum/article/3651932#ixzz1niipVKcg
Libertarians should vote for Gingrich
http://dailycaller.com/2012/02/27/bob-barr-libertarians-should-vote-for-gingrich/
Cain talks about Newt comeback on Neal Boortz radio show
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h_hJeaTuchM&feature=youtu.be
New Gingrich ad-good stuff
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4om28lD7fSM
wodeij,
Do note the Daily Caller used an unflattering photo of Newt at the Bob Barr article.
Do also note the nasty looking photos and headlines all the rest of the media use when they don’t actually ignore Newt.
Do note all the little demons Paul and Romney have on every blog typing the nastiest exudate about Newt from accusations of mental disorders to lewd remarks about his misbehavior in the past though he has repented and gotten help for his behavior problems and sin.
When I have time, I go and list Romney’s sins and argue against Paul’s insane domestic policies (legalizing drugs and sex-trafficking)… but all of it probably takes a toll on unthinking, self-interested (what will this mean to my check?) uncaring, ignorant and undiscerning voters which sadly are the majority.
Many vote on image, external appearances and with the photos of Romney, Anne and the handsome sons, looking like another ‘Camelot’ presidency, making America proud, and contrasting that with the evil looking photos of Newt and Callista… you have a disaster.
Then there are the bigots the true bigots (largely Leftists, Islamists, agenda groups) of every variation fueled by emotions varying from mere resentments, to covetousness, to family and cultural prejudice to fierce roiling hatred. Bigots are a considerable number.
The professional politicals who run the show….the money-and power holders, media, OWS, Unionists, Party people… don’t really care about the average American people, tax-paying, law-abiding, God-fearing, humanity-loving, hard-working folk. They get theirs no matter what the level of misery the average Joe and Jane endure. Our taxes don’t make much difference if they can manipulate currency and play their big-time games they will profit.
Sorry for a lack of punctuation…I forget mere commas when I am angry….
oh for an edit button.
I already knew all those points you made but feel a great, supportive article about Newt is much more important than a unflattering picture. I realize many people vote on looks but more do not.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/election-2012/post/rick-santorums-michigan-primary-speech-full-text-and-video/2012/02/28/gIQAtFsJhR_blog.html
Here is a transcript of Santorum’s concession speech.
I don’t get it. Does this sound like a leader? I agree, Professor–Not ready for prime time. My favorite line–“The men and women who signed that Declaration of Independence wrote this final phrase: We pledge to each other — we pledge to each other our lives, our fortune, and our sacred honor.”
I listened in agony to the speech. No joke! Why am I feeling that he is channeling things Newt has been talking about lately? Why is it that I feel because of that, he is not sincere? Why does he creep me out? I am not trying to be mean here honest! This is something that I am struggling with in trying to choose my second choice. Sorry!
I couldn’t listen. I read the transcript. I searched for one when I read a tweet about him saying “Men and women who signed the Declaration of Independence.” and another couple of tweets joking about his shale prop. You’re not alone in your thinking. I feel like he must watch Newt’s speeches daily, so he can know what he should talk about.
“The men and women who signed that Declaration of Independence wrote this final phrase: We pledge to each other — we pledge to each other our lives, our fortune, and our sacred honor.”
Is this what you are referring to? He said it the speech from the link you posted earlier. I almost fell out of my seat!
Anyone listen to Mark Levin last night?
I found it very interesting that Levin devoted one hour of his show to let Romney supporters call in and tell everyone WHY they support Romney.
Of course, no surprise here, they could state nothing of substance! Levin asked them about RomneyCare, and they couldn’t even talk about that.
There is no substance to Romney supporters, just like there is no subsance to Mitt.
I’m totally shocked and dismayed at the level, or lack thereof, in intelligence of people that vote. One lady said “Mitt looks Presidential.” What?? I would be ashamed of myself if that was the only reason I voted for someone.
The people in the South have to show the others that you don’t choose a candidate like that. I personally believe that Romney still isn’t an overwhelming winner.
Santorum is still going to win other states, such Oklahoma, Kansas, North Dakota, Tennessee and maybe Texas if they get straightened out. So this is far from over.
Where does Newt fit in? I wish I knew because after what I heard on Levin’s show last night, we are in big trouble if Mitt gets the nomination.
For that matter, I’ve yet to hear a Santorum supporter say they support him other than his religious beliefs and they think he’s a nice guy Will that create a healthy economic environment? No and only 14% of voters are concerned about social issues. That is primarily Santorum’s plank.
Per Real clear Politics’ Sean Trende, Romney has to win something like 50% of the remaining delegates to avoid a brokered convention. (Santorum about 60%, Newt or Paul about 65%). All four have survived vetting and there won’t be any lightning bolts knocking anyone out. All four have sufficient funding to hang in there. Barring something bizarre, regional politics among the remaining primaries means it’s likely not gonna happen for any of them before the convention.
Buddy Roemer has his opening. Think of it… President Buddy. “When all looks muddy, I’m your Buddy!”
Just got an email from the American Spectator asking me to donate to Santorum. That explains a lot – including this and other anti-Newt Gingrich articles:
http://spectator.org/archives/2012/02/16/it-is-time-for-newt-to-go
Guess the Spectator holds to a kind of big bank/big labor ‘conservatism’… social conservatism with a twist or rather, a squeeze would be more appropriate, of socialist big labor organizer.
I hate the labor mob almost as much as I hate Islam and gambling.
Guess it was all those movies of mobs, leg-brakers and collectors beating up old men shop-keepers who wouldn’t pay for protection, or anyone who knew too much, stood in the way or owed them. I have no illusions about corruption of any kind whatsoever, political or business.
Well, since I don’t base my support for Newt on what others think, I’ll take a pass on the article.
It is amusing though, that people would ask Newt to get out now that we are heading to the South and Super Tuesday, kinda makes you almost wonder.
I have been asking myself why certain websites and radio folks have been supporting Rick while at the same time always so easily conceding they’ll support Romney if he wins. It’s been my experience, that political people don’t concede until their guy loses or pulls out. I’ve grown very suspicious about who they really support and that their real job is to use their conservative credibility to keep the conservatives from going rogue against Romney in the general should he happen to win. But I think it’s going to be a lot tougher to corral conservatives than they think.
What the Spectator did was a back-handed kind of stealth endorsement for Santorum. And a nasty put-down of Newt whom I favor.
Since the Spectator depends on donations, it has lost mine as I let him know when the editor wrote that article.
Yep, Cut ’em off – That’s the best thing to do to register your displeasure.
I received an email from Dick Morris, supposedly his sponsor (Rick Santorum) asking for money as well.
Am Spectator did have a great article today in support of Newt:
Obama Loses His First Debate
http://spectator.org/archives/2012/02/29/obama-loses-his-first-debate
45% of Michigan’s counties are rural, Santorum won 63% of Michigan’s counties…
Election results interactive map
http://www.freep.com/article/20120228/NEWS15/120228043/
Those counties that Santorum won line up more with those voters who voted for Newt, Perry, Bachman and Cain.
The ABC exit poll cited shows Santorum leading big among Democrats, Romney among Republicans…. where the exit polls were taken in 75% urban / suburban areas and only 25% rural, these few suburban “rural-cities” are not the same demographic as those 45% “rural-counties” where they largely roll up the sidewalks at six o’clock and such.
Ya know, the true faith , family and freedom bunch where libertarians tend to lean more toward the conservative Tea Party people.
I supported Newt, but any one of these candidates has admirable qualities when compared to Obama. Professor Jacobsen was either lazy, went for shock and awe factor or is letting blind support for Newt cloud his assessment of what really happened here. There was a large effort by democrats to hijack democracy in the urban / suburban areas and it shows in counties that Romney won, although the Santorum robocall tactic was strange, its unknown how prevalent or effective it actually was.
I have no Conservative dog in this fight anymore. Y’all know Perry was my choice for President. I held on till the bitter end, and would still vote for him in a heart beat if he “unsuspended” his campaign.
So, I know how Newt supporters feel, but I really do not see how Newt can possibly win the nomination now. I think Newt staying in will hand the nomination to Romney. I just don’t see a path for Newt to win. I still have to vote on Super Tuesday, so show me the way Obi-Wan. I am willing to be convinced, so show me the numbers.
Well, if only as a point of logic, your inability to see a thing doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist.
The path for Newt is this:
It is clear that Romney cannot secure a majority of GOP voters and relies on a three-way split among his opponents plus outspending opponents 5:1, plus doing so in an egregiously negative manner. None of his necessary situations will exist in the general and the establishment GOP knows it.
Further, (per Sean Trende), Romney needs to win at least 50% of the remaining delegates to avoid a brokered convention. Not gonna happen.
The GOP base and the conservative leaning indies have now sampled everyone, and many have taken a turn atop the polling, some more than one turn. Most recently it was Santorum’s turn at the top and he is now on the downswing due to his own misplays on the campaign trail. There is no ‘new guy’ left to turn to, and it is very obvious they don’t want Romney.
Newt’s opportunity comes if the GOP base and indie conservatives now sort among Santorum, Paul, and Gingrich for their final not-Romney decision. If they do this, their choice will be Newt Gingrich. Newt will do well in the south, at least, and may catch fire yet again. Money follows momentum. This is a genuine possiblity.
You do realize Romney already has well over 50% of the delegates awarded so far, right? He doesn’t have to do any better than he already has. Henry, all he has to do is stay on pace. As long as he keeps chipping away, he will attrit everyone else.
You are right to point out that the base has “sampled” everyone else but if you look closely at the Romney’s purple trend line at Real Clear Politics, you will notice that while everyone else has spiked at least once, Mitt’s trend line is the only one that has been steadily, slowly but surely, climbing over the last few months.
Bottom line? Time is against you.
No, WoodnWorld, time is against YOU.
because if we don’t fix this, YOUR future will be compromised just like everyone else’s.
Good one Hope Change:)
Hey, I can’t fix your guy’s campaign for him. On the whole, I am pretty happy with the way things have been going. I have found myself being right more than usual and am not the least ashamed or shy to admit it.
I don’t buy into the “Chicken Little” routine and do not believe the world will end if we nominate Romney. You should know better by now than to save the sermonizing for someone who is either A. actually listening or, B. convertible. I am neither. The only real argument I have heard for Newt is that he is not Romney. That’s it.
By the way, thank you for swooping in to “save” Say_What. “GOOD ONE.” My man was really struggling on his own and needed all the reinforcements he could get.
100%, Henry Hawkins.
here’s Newt explaining the process to Matt Lauer yesterday, Feb 28th. http://conservatives4newt.blogspot.com/2012/02/newt-calls-out-matt-lauer-for-quoting.html
This is not just a political, cynical, money wins every time, horse race.
You need to get hold inside of you of what you want America to be for your future. That is your north star, no matter what.
Why don’t you ask Perry, he endorsed Newt and is campaigning for him.
But let me state again, that Newt & Rick “together” can deny Mitt enough votes to keep him from getting the nomination prior to the convention.
Ah yes, “Bargaining.” You, my friend, are a “Stage 3 GOP Primary Griever.”
It looks like you’re permanently stuck at Stage #5 – Anger. Maybe you need a grief counselor to get you to the next stage.
Who is angry? I am thrilled! If the world listened to you, Romney would have had his butt handed to him last night and endorsed Newt afterwards because it was the “smart” thing to do.
Believe me, just because I enjoy pointing out how rotten things look from your perspective doesn’t mean I am angry about it. On the contrary…
[…] outpost in Santa Barbara last night, very pleased that Mitt Romney won the primaries in Michigan and Arizona. It seems it was a solid win in my home state of Michigan, too — as he garnered more votes […]
“…in Wisconsin the True the Vote effort reports that there are enough questionable or clearly invalid signatures to deny the recall, BUT only by a hair. It remains to be seen if the Wisconsin GAB takes True the Vote objections into account, since Gov. Walker himself is not contesting whether there are enough signatures for a recall. I’ll have more on this as the recall challenge proceeds…”
We’re still doing data entry. Please keep helping.
Sir, is that your signature on the recall ballot living in Green Bay, Wisconsin? There is a Susan Jacobson listed above your name at the same address in Green Bay.
My apologies, sir, after I posted I realized I didn’t phrase it tactfully and there is no edit button that I could fix it. What I meant to say is there is a William A Jacobson and a Susan Jacobson in Green Bay at the same address.
Did you know Baby Ruth lives in Wisconsin? It is outright funny some of the names on the recall.
[…] Huffington Post here and Professor Jacobson at Legal Insurrection here have good points to make about yesterday’s contests. Read and enjoy the […]
Is my hearing going or did Rush just say something to the effect that McCain said he didn’t think Romney can win because of all the animosity created by Rick & Mitt attacking each other?
This ain’t over yet – Go NEWT 2012
People, don’t feed the trolls. WoodnWorld is not a Romney supporter. He/she/it is a liberal trollbot attempting to sow seeds of discontent among the perceived GOP, and doing rather poorly at it. Ignore as appropriate.
I know .. But .. But .. Henry, I’m having so much fun feeding the Troll:)
Yes, you are soooo clever Say_What.
Thank you!
Now that’s a new one! Hey, if you can’t beat em, ignore em right Hank?
Henry Hawkins, I think you may be right.
The attitudes expressed by WoodnWorld don’t seem to add up to anything but scorched earth and sneering.
And he/she/it is doing a lot of damage to the Romney brand by expressing such meanness here.
It’s probably someone on the same payroll as Caley Bovee over at Power Line.
Thanks, Henry Hawkins!
Awww…am I being mean to you Hope? Damage to the Romney brand? Are you kidding? Do you even listen to yourself? As if anyone could make any of you detest Mitt any more than you do… You can collectively dish it out, you cannot individually take it.
The truth is I absolutely reflect the same sarcastic tone, the same mean-spirited attitude that any one of you do about any subject, and any other candidate you do not endorse here.
No problem. There are very very few effective trolls.
[…] Gonna Love This Banquet! Posted on February 29, 2012 1:30 pm by Bill Quick » Michigan and Arizona primary results – Le·gal In·sur·rec·tion The cumulative effect was that Santorum never showed he was ready for prime time. That may […]
So, I read Henry Hawkins, and perhaps there may still be a path for Newt. My primary isn’t until April 3rd, so by the time it comes around he’ll either be in front or not. I have stayed away from the political blogs for about a month and in the world of the average Joe, Newt is not getting much coverage. I’m still supporting the anti-Romney in the primary, whoever that turns out to be, and in the general the anti-Obama.