The Des Moines Register came out with its final polling last night, and here were the numbers in percentage points: Romney (24), Paul (22), Santorum (15), Gingrich (12), Perry (11), Bachmann (7).
Santorum is surging averaging 10% the first two days of polling, but the second two days put him just below Romney, with 22% in the final day.
41% of voters say they still could change their minds.
But, assuming the results are as the poll indicates, will any of these be the headline?
Romney falls short of 2008 25.3% tally
or
76% of Republican voters still don’t want Romney
or
Santorum percent in Iowa matches percent by which he lost his last Senate race
or
Guy who has no chance of mounting national campaign against Romney surges
or
Despite $10 million in negative ads, Gingrich lives to fight another day
I doubt it. But you can’t take away my bitterness, to which I cling.
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If it’s any consolation, the candidate who finished 4th in Iowa with (I believe) 13% of the vote ended up getting the party’s nomination in 2008. Also, Geo H. Bush lost in 1988, coming in third behind Bob Dole and Pat Robertson (!); and Reagan lost in both 1976 and 1980. In fact, the only time Reagan won the Iowa Caucus was in 1984… when he was unopposed. No matter how the Iowa Caucus turns out this year, its only one primary. And not a terribly predictive one at that.
I’m ok with Gingrich & Perry taking out Romney.
My country, ’tis of thee,
Sweet land of liberty,
To thee I cling
No matter how the Iowa Caucus turns out this year, its only one primary. And not a terribly predictive one at that.
Nor is New Hampshire anymore. South Carolina is where we winnow the wheat from the chaff.
Iowa is too fluid to call. The good news is that the nutball Ron Paul is starting to deflate. Santorum is broke and I don’t see him going on beyond NH.
It would be a hoot if Huntsman dings Mitt in NH.
Perry is in it to at least Super Tuesday & the Texas Primary a month later & he’s still got money to burn.
Paul will bottom out by then.
I think it will be Romney,Perry, & Gingrich going into Super Tuesday.
I’m looking forward to one that says “People Finally Stop Pretending Newt Could Be A President.”
The South will determine this. And it’s a weakness of one particular candidate.
I’m reading that the VA Attorney General. Ken Cuccinelli wants to resolve the ballot dispute before March rolls around.
Well Dear Prof, as one bitter clinger (Cain supporter) to another, at least you can live to fight another day.
The more I read about the Iowa Caucuses the less impressed I am. Some people who have been to past caucuses write about the winner being the candidate who has the best caterer. Others write about how some candidates bring in people on buses which skews the results.
It seems we are obsessed with an event that is really much ado about nothing. With the state of our economy and the other pressing national issues we have to deal with at this time, how are we being so distracted by this non-event?
The next time I’m on I-70 and driving through Iowa, I think I’ll bring my own food and drinks.
GoldenAh | January 1, 2012 at 10:51 am
“The South will determine this. And it’s a weakness of one particular candidate.”
Indeed… hence the barrage of chatter about how inevitable Romney is. They want voters dispirited by the time the southern primaries hit. They’re hoping for a ‘self-fulfilling prophecy’… they hope that if they repeat it enough, it’ll come true. Personally I think they are whistling past the graveyard. I still don’t think that Romney is going to be the nominee. He polls at about 25% and that’s it. He doesn’t seem to be able to get anything beyond his base, regardless of what happens to any given ‘non-Romney’ at any particular moment. Frankly I think most conservative voters will start taking second or third looks at any of the remaining candidates before they jump on ‘Team Romney’. This primary will go the distance… and that does not help Romney at all.
I’m still supporting Perry and hoping that the good people of Iowa will come to their senses and realize that Santorum cannot continue beyond Iowa. it is time to consolidate around a Conservative candidate and Perry has been running some great ads in Iowa and his campaign stops are packed with Iowans. He has the infrastructure and the funds to go all the way against Romney and Paul. Perry 2012.
Iowa is a microcosm of nothing, demographically. Its predominant bloc is social conservative evangelicals. It’s a caucus, not a ballot box vote. Any win is a good win, but Iowa is hardly critical to anyone already certain to move on to NH and SC.
I think Iowa will turn away from Romney at crunch time and Paul or Santorum will win his first and only primary, with Romney second or third, Gingrich fourth. Romney will take NH with Gingrich second. Gingrich will take SC with Romney third. Florida looms and Gingrich is from Georgia.
This is going the distance.
Iowa votes Dem . Hardly conservative evangelicals .In the end it is all for nothing.
If I were a candidate I would give it an entire miss & start working on SC Florida VA & Ohio.
Seriously, it’s time to rethink the caucus “system,” where the extremes especially can make their voices heard, and what percentage really votes anyway?
As for the headlines: Perfect. But the MSM will have “Romney (or X) wins.”
I agree! The 1952 Presidential Primary in Minnesota wasn’t won by Ike but his write-in votes, he was in 3rd place, helped propel him into the GOP nomination. So, the state GOP and DFL were determined never to allow the Hoi Polloi interfere in the presidential nomination process again. Now, we use caucuses to determine the state’s major party choices for that nomination.
Paulians flock to Iowa to skew the primary. How else does Paul win the straw polls when every one understands he is a nut? I doubt he has real support even in Iowa.
Counting down the days until we’ll never have to deal with fricken Paulbots, kookpots and Dr. Paul.
Wow. Far be it from me to deny anyone their bitterness, but some of those headlines were just … not nice.
Still, we have an historic opportunity here: For the first major party-candidate to win both Iowa AND New Hampshire. Yes, those who have won Iowa have failed to become the candidate, as have those who have failed NH; but never has their been a candidate who has failed to win one or the other. South Carolina may be batting a thousand on Republican nominees, but that’s because they’ve been playing tiebreaker between the winners of the first two major contests. Romney wins both, there’s nowhere else to go.
Here’s a couple of headlines, one bitter, one not:
“Romney Makes History, Wins Every Primary/Caucus”
“Romney Wins Against Tragically Weak Opponents”
^Never has there