Via Political Wire, the most recent polls:
A Quinnipiac poll in Florida shows Mitt Romney has a 14 point lead over Newt Gingrich, 43% to 29%, with Ron Paul and Rick Santorum both at 11%. Just 7% are undecided, but 24% say they might change their mind by tomorrow’s primary election.A SurveyUSA poll shows Romney tops Gingrich by 15 points, 41% to 26%, with Santorum and Paul at 12% each.A We Ask America poll shows Romney crushing Gingrich, 50% to 28%, with Santorum at 12% and Paul at 11%.A Public Policy Polling survey shows Romney leads Gingrich by seven points, 39% to 32%, with Santorum at 14% and Paul at 11%.A InsiderAdvantage poll claims the race is down to just five points with Romney leading Gingrich, 36% to 31%, followed by Santorum and Paul each at 12%.
Note that the PPP and Insider Advantage polls for yesterday show only mid-to-high single digit leads, with IA showing a substantial drop in Romney’s lead since its poll last week.
Does this reflect a backlash against the Romney tactics? We’ll find out tomorrow.
And remember the expectations game. At this point, will anything less than a double-digit Romney win breath life into the Newt campaign?
(added) In 2008, Romney received 31% of the vote in Florida, McCain 36%, Rudy 14.7, Huck 13.5, Paul 3.2.
Update: The most important poll of all? (conservative bloggers)
1) If you had to pick the GOP’s 2012 presidential nominee today, which of the following candidates would you select?
4) Ron Paul: 11.6% (8 votes)3) Rick Santorum: 21.7% (15 votes)2) Mitt Romney: 31.9% (22 votes)1) Newt Gingrich: 34.8% (24 votes)
Of course, since the blogger poll does not include Drudge, or other high traffic blogs, it’s just a measure of rightness, not power.
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