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Why a default candidate is not enough

Why a default candidate is not enough

There was an unemployment report released this morning which showed the unemployment rate dropping to 8.6%.

That’s a big plus for Obama, even though the drop almost entirely is the result of people leaving the workforce, as Jame Pethokoukis notes:

The mainstream media pays no attention to the underlying numbers. 8.6% is 8.6%.  If anyone finds a mainstream media headline focusing on the number of people who left the workforce, please post in the comments.  I won’t hold my breath.

Anyone who thinks a default Republican candidate will waltz into the White House in January 2013 based on the “unemployment rate” is sorely mistaken.  The unemployment number that everyone focuses on may not be as “bad” as expected, for reasons the media will ignore.

Update:  Thanks to reader Myk for this Reuters headline.  I wonder if the mainstream papers will run it, since this link is from Reuters own website.

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The country has been accustomed to a 9% or higher rate so anything in the 8s call look good by comparison. Those of us who pay attention remember the rate was in the 4s when Bush was president, a rate which was criticized by the Left.

Rush has said right along that as long as the rate is under 9% — even 8.9% — the MSM will declare Obama’s economy as a success.

please also remember there is always a bump in unemployment stats come the holiday season. wait till January…

not receiving benefits means not counted in the figures.
this figure has always been misleading but gets touted as gospel.

There are many people who, based on where they work or the type of work they do, have remained largely insulated from the harshness. For them the numbers may indeed be the basis for their voting choices. Then there is everyone else, and to everyone else the number is a lie.

It is an especially apparent lie to those who are either out of a job, still helping out those who can’t get back to work, or still have a job, but have been informed that further cuts are just around the corner.

To these people the statistics are simply a slap in the face, a reminder of the gross disconnect between Washington and the real world.

A smart GOP could take advantage of this truth. I rather doubt they will.

I like this from Politico: In a surprising development, the unemployment rate dropped to a stunning 8.6 percent in November, as the country’s economy flashed signs of strength amid uneasiness about a broader global downturn. — The unemployment rate drop from 9 percent …

I guess Im not so “stunned”

Yes, if one was to combine the 8.6% unemployment rate with Obama’s move to lift the ban on horse meat, one might conclude that Obama is “back in the saddle”.

I’ll let myself out, thank you.

The primary issue should be about debt and spending rather jobs and taxes. 47% of Americans pay no federal tax, even those who are working yet 60% receive some form of federal goody.

Demographics indicate that the percentage of those over 40 years of age is greater than the percentage of those under 40 years of age.

Those under the age of 40 will carry the burden of satisfying a $15 trillion debt while satisfying $50 to $100 trillion in unfunded liabilities Social Security and Medicare.

And all those under the age of 40 years of age with their $100,000 indebt college degree will somehow satisfy the enormous debt and spending spree by working in jobs which pay $10 dollars an hour as blue-government smurfs bailing out the world’s poor people.

I found it interesting that a correspondent for the New York Times actually tweeted this.

workingclass artist | December 2, 2011 at 10:52 am

I’m not worried since most of that stat is pumped by the Texas economy. Which is why folks should give Gov. Perry and his plans another look. Of course this strategy works if Perry is the GOP nominee.

If Obama tries to take credit for an improving economy it will be a HOOT to do that to Perry’s face just as it would be if Obama tries to blame it on Bush.

That is how Perry beats Obama in a debate & the facts back that up….No fancy rhetoric needed.

“Rate of Job Growth
To gauge the relative strength of Texas job growth, one of the simplest and most informative ways is comparing the rate of job growth in Texas relative to the U.S. However, those figures alone do not tell us how much Texas is contributing to national performance. Another option is calculating what U.S. job growth would be without Texas. For example, through October 2011, year-to-date annualized Texas job growth was 2.1 percent, compared with a U.S. rate of 1.2 percent. Without the Texas gains, U.S. employment would have expanded 1.0 percent (Table 2).

http://dallasfed.org/research/employment/2011/1110.cfm

It is because of conservative decisions in Texas that we’ve weathered the downturn & Perry can make the case in a simple direct way with a record to back it up. Texas is projected to maintain this trend for the next 5 years. If Perry can move the Federal Govt. out of the way the rest of the states will boom too.

He’s already been fighting Obama & DC for a long time.

I will say this for NPR: they talked about the change today, and properly attributed it to the change in underlying data.

The brutal fact remains that people who run out of unemployment are classed as “non-participants” because they are no longer “actively looking” — that is, reporting to the government.

workingclass artist | December 2, 2011 at 11:04 am

“Just when it looked like things were beginning to turn around, new unemployment claims jumped back over 400,000 last week. After two consecutive weeks below the 400K threshold, the jobless number climbed to 402,000 last week. Experts were predicting the number would come in at 390,000.”

http://reddogreport.com/2011/12/unemployment-claims-jump-above-400000-again/

Ezra Klein, that conservative stalwart (LOL), digs into the BLS report and notes that most of the hiring boost came from retail sales, while hiring was negative in other sectors of the economy, including construction and manufacturing. This could mean that we’re looking at temporary holiday jobs that will be gone by January 2012.

To make matter worse, once it looks like hiring in any numbers has resumed, most of those folks who dropped out labor market will return, driving up the unemployment rate.

Frankly, while this may look like good news for Obama2012, it only sets them up for bad news later.

“Ours is not to reason why … Ours is but to spin and lie.”

—Charge of the Media Brigade

Newt is an educator, and he needs to educate the average American about the U-6 unemployment rate, which is around 16% … that’s what the public is feeling. A week from now everyone should be talking about the outrage of so many people leaving the workforce rather than an “improving” U-3 number, thanks to Newt. Hammer away, Newt. “Raise our awareness,” as the left loves to say.

LukeHandCool (whose wife, in typical Japanese-wife fashion, considers her husband basically unemployed if he has only one job).

    workingclass artist in reply to LukeHandCool. | December 2, 2011 at 12:13 pm

    I know the “intelligentsia” is thrilled by the idea of a professor president Newt (One that even says he’ll teach a course from the Oval Office…C’mon)

    I qualify on paper with an advance degree from an Ivy to be part of the “intelligentsia Newt cheering squad” but I don’t want another professor president…I want an able & effective executive with a broad background in experience who happens to be a conservative with common sense.

    I’ll stick with the Aggie Governor from Texas because results matter. In Texas we work hard and the living is good.

    Perry’s got 600-700 Texas Posse going to campaign/volunteer for him in Iowa. They will bolster the case for the Texas economic model and adopting versions of it in other states. Some of these folks are really good people and heavy hitters in Texas like Atty. Gen Abbott & Comptroller Combs.

    http://reddogreport.com/2011/12/perry-makes-a-play-for-iowa/#comment-14192

    This primary is a wild rodeo.

I suspect the stated unemployment rate is largely irrelevent because people are going to vote based on how things feel rather than on some arbitrary government data point. The fact remains that unemployment remains at catastrophic levels. You can see the signs everywhere.

No incumbent has ever won reelection when GDP increased less than 3% in the year prior to the election. Through the first three quarters this year GDP has grown a mere 1.23% while total debt has grown by over $1 trillion. No amount of number fudging can make that feel right.

workingclass artist said,

“Check out this graph…A picture is worth 1000 words”

A graph can be manipulated just as much as a statistical summary, Most of those jobs are low paying sevice positions of which many are at or near the minimum wage level.

Be sure to read the entire article at:

http://www.factcheck.org/2011/08/texas-size-recovery/

I’ve been a TX resident for over twenty years and while the economy here is better than most of the nation, it’s due to longstanding business friendly policies.

    workingclass artist in reply to GrumpyOne. | December 2, 2011 at 1:45 pm

    I’m a native Texan and I live in Texas too and your argument is a fallacy.

    If Obama as chief executive is accountable through is policies and actions as executive for a failing american economy the same logic applies to a chief executive like Gov Perry for a successful economy in Texas.

    Logic is a wonderful thingy & Truman had it right when he said “The Buck Stops Here”

    During Perry’s tenure as Governor Texas has led the nation in exports for 9 years in a row with the bulk being manufacturing as Texas has diversified it’s economy. Texas has balanced it’s budget & upgraded it’s credit rating.

    I see you on other blogs making the same fallacious argument so if by your standards the executive in Texas doesn’t deserve leadership credit for a successful economy then Obama as leading executive of this disasterous economy doesn’t deserve blame & neither did Jimmy Carter. Which of course undercuts the conservative argument for replacing Obama doesn’t it.

    Perry has been one of the most effective governors in Texas history and if a big part of his job is spent keeping the legislature from enacting bonehead ideas that would affect the economy or depleting the rainy day fund to game the budget then I’m all for that too. He’s got a strong record as a conservative & facts are stubborn things.

    The facts are that Texas weathered the economy better because we continued to make smart conservative choices and as a result we are projected to maintain this trend for the next 5 years. Gov. Perry as leader of the RGA has spurred other governors to compete with Texas using their own versions of the “Texas model” and the results in every state that did this speak for themselves.

    That’s called leadership. Conservative governance works in Texas and it can work in other states.

    workingclass artist in reply to GrumpyOne. | December 2, 2011 at 1:51 pm

    @Grumpyone

    Interesting that you link to factcheck.org

    Try this link with this data.

    http://www.willisms.com/archives/2011/11/texas_adding_pr.html

    That is a lie, and you and FactCheck are liars.

[…] Down by Going Up Posted on December 2, 2011 3:30 pm by Bill Quick » Why a default candidate is not enough – Le·gal In·sur·rec·tion The mainstream media pays no attention to the underlying numbers. 8.6% is 8.6%.  If anyone […]

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