A certain someone already has declared that the media got the primaries all wrong, and that it was going to be Mitt all the time. Others have written off Newt and Perry to the dustbin of history. The emerging media consensus, pushed by the mainstream conservative outlets, is that it’s all but over.
Don’t believe it for a minute. It’s just the Republican version of Operation Demoralize.
Not a single vote has been cast, and the already annointed nominee is polling under his 2008 numbers in Iowa, but we are supposed to believe he is unbeatable?
Here are the Latest Polls for Iowa from Real Clear Politics, and they are all over the place [note: I have not been able to strink the tables to fit, so the last column on the right is cut off, you can view the full charts at the link]:
| Poll | Date | Sample | Romney | Paul | Gingrich | Santorum | Perry | Bachmann | Huntsman | Cain | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCP Average | 12/21 – 12/28 | — | 21.3 | 21.3 | 14.3 | 13.8 | 11.3 | 9.3 | 2.8 | — | Tie |
| Rasmussen Reports | 12/28 – 12/28 | 750 LV | 23 | 22 | 13 | 16 | 13 | 5 | 3 | — | Romney +1 |
| Insider Advantage | 12/28 – 12/28 | 429 LV | 17 | 17 | 17 | 13 | 11 | 12 | 3 | — | Tie |
| PPP (D) | 12/26 – 12/27 | 565 LV | 20 | 24 | 13 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 4 | — | Paul +4 |
| CNN/Time | 12/21 – 12/27 | 452 LV | 25 | 22 | 14 | 16 | 11 | 9 | 1 | — | Romney +3 |
The race in Iowa is far from over.
And nationally while Romney has gained, he’s still in a statistical tie with Newt, again from Real Clear Politics:
| Poll | Date | Sample | Gingrich | Romney | Paul | Perry | Bachmann | Santorum | Huntsman | Cain | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCP Average | 12/14 – 12/28 | — | 27.2 | 25.4 | 12.2 | 6.6 | 6.2 | 3.8 | 2.0 | — | Gingrich +1.8 |
| Gallup Tracking | 12/22 – 12/28 | 1000 RV | 23 | 27 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 2 | — | Romney +4 |
| CNN/Opinion Research | 12/16 – 12/18 | 436 A | 28 | 28 | 14 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 2 | — | Tie |
| PPP (D) | 12/16 – 12/18 | 658 LV | 35 | 22 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 3 | — | Gingrich +13 |
| ABC News/Wash Post | 12/15 – 12/18 | RV | 30 | 30 | 15 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 2 | — | Tie |
| CBS News | 12/14 – 12/18 | 291 RV | 20 | 20 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 1 | — | Tie |
The fact is that Newt survived what David Limbaugh calls the “relentless, unmeasured scorched-earth savagery” of the Republican establishment; that Newt is not in Jon Huntsman territory is astounding considering the onslaught. Rick Perry has stabilized and is mounting a vigorous campaign. Now they are hyping Rick Santorum, knowing he has no chance of mounting a serious challenge to Romney.
The narrative of the primaries being over and Romney being the winner is a false narrative concocted by people with an agenda. Don’t fall for it.
Newt and Perry, at a minimum, need to take this fight into the south.
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