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Wisconsin, May 2012 – Be there

Wisconsin, May 2012 – Be there

The mother of all recall battles is set to launch on November 15, when the 60 day clock starts for Wisconsin Democrats to obtain over 540,206 signatures on recall petitions against Governor Scott Walker.

If suffiicient signatures are obtained (and I assume they will), the recall election likely will be May 2012.

This is the fight they have been looking for, but it really is the fight we should have been looking for.  The recall effort will be a referendum on whether there is any hope of taking back government from public sector employee unions, and whether a swing state is more interested in growing the economy or growing unions.

It’s a battle which is very winnable for Walker.  Wisconsin is doing better than the rest of the nation, there is recall fatigue, and most important, there will be a challenger who will have to make the case why s/he should be Governor.

Take nothing for granted (notwithstanding my prior prediction).  Go all in on this one.  If Democrats and unions lose, it will be a devasting blow coming in the middle of a presidential election year.

And if Walker wins it easily, expect his name to be on the short list for VP nominee.


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“there will be a challenger who will have to make the case why s/he should be Governor.”

The case will be, “Walker is eeeeeevvvvviiiiiilllllllll!”

Many will fall for it. Many will roll their eyes at the childishness. The question is, which group will show up at the polls?

Sorry to say but the “eeevvvviiilll” side is likely far more motivated.

I hope the unions go all-in on this; I’d love to see them waste a ton a money trying to recall Walker that they need more elsewhere.

Thanks for the heads-up professor.

I’m in Wisconsin – we can’t take anything for granted as far as Walker’s ability to survive a recall. Just like the earlier recalls, both sides will avoid the issue that this is really about public sector unions.

If we think our Capital was infested before, wait until the OWS clowns descend on Wisconsin. Thanks for today’s Video – not the usual genre for here, but “Crazy Train” certainly defines OWS.

Will the recall vote occurr on the same day as the GOP primary? If so, there will be lots of motivated participants on the Walker side of the equation.

Thanks for your leadership, Professor, to bring attention to the importance of this showdown in Wisconsin.

The Dems need to decide how to spend what’s left of their treasure in Wisconsin. With Herb Kohl retiring his seat is truly up for grabs. Tammy Baldwin will be the Dem front runner, but they’re going to have to spend an absolute fortune on her campaign. She’s a Madison darling, but outside of Madison… not so much. The national Dems can’t afford to have both Senate seats go Republican in just two years. I’m not sure all of that out-state money that flooded into Wisconsin after Walker’s election will flood in again with the specific purpose of spanking Walker with a recall that is considerably less than a slam dunk.

Wisconsin public sector union ability to launder political money for the Dems isn’t what it used to be. They still make a lot of noise, but there may not be much of a bite following the bark. As always, follow the money. The effort to recall Walker may not live up to expectations.

and I assume they will [get the 540K signatures]

Really? That’s a very high bar in a State which is absolutely sick and tired of politics.

There are 2.8 million non-farm employees in Wisconsin. If 10% of them are Government employees (all levels), that’s only 280K signatures–at best.

    Aarradin in reply to dad29. | October 11, 2011 at 12:51 pm

    I agree.

    There’s only 3.4 million registered voters in the state. If you figure roughly half voted for Walker in the first place and aren’t likely to be willing to sign a recall petition, they’ll need to get the signatures of about 1/3 of those remaining – many of which are independents.

    So, yes, a very high bar. If they manage to clear it, Walker should emulate Obama: hire people to challenge the signatures. It’d be cheaper to defeat the petition than fight a recall election.

    alan markus in reply to dad29. | October 11, 2011 at 2:06 pm

    Hate to be Eeyore here, but a few things to think about. 1) 280,000 PS employees – if they have spouses/partners/family that will sign with them, that may generate more signatures. 2) 3.4 Million registered voters – don’t have to be registered to sign recall petition that is shoved in front of you. Don’t underestimate the “voter registration” process being used to get the necessary signatures. In Milwaukee I expect there will be lots of “informational” events where free barbeque & refreshments are served. In the Darling(R)/Pasch recall against Darling (which she won), a group for Pasch hosted such an event, and then had vans to take people to City Hall to pick up absentee votes. 3) I haven’t seen numbers on Walker’s approval rating to verify, but comments at a few other blogs say he’s the lowest in the country.

[…] Professor Jacobson adds this: This is the fight they have been looking for, but it really is the fight we should have […]

The number I would like to see before Nov. 15:

# of school districts in WI X Average overcharge by WEA Trust X number of years it was mandated by teachers contracts to use WEA Trust.

It has to be in the billions of $ that WI taxpayer’s have been ripped off. I think that might put a damper on the enthusiasm to recall Gov. Walker.

As usual, Bill, you have the pulse of our state. It will be difficult but not impossible for the dems to get the signatures to force the recall election. However, it will be far more difficult to win the election. This is for 2 primary reasons. One, there is not a current viable candidate to run against Gov Walker. Feingold and Barrett have already announced they won’t run. There aren’t many viable candidates left.

Second, Act 10 (Budget Repair Bill) is working. Many school boards and municipalities have been able to balance their budgets and either maintained tax levies or have actually been able to lower their constituents’ taxes. All because of the stand of Gov Walker and the legislature this spring.

Add to this that WI campaign finance law allows Gov Walker an opportunity to raise unlimited funds while the recall is occurring. This will give him an advantage not only if there is a Gov election in 2012 but for his reelection in 2014.

We will fight hard for our governor. Our slogan: Retain Walker.