In late December I posted my “not predictions” for 2011.  (My “predictions” are here.)

Here are the first 10 “not predictions.”  I think I’m doing pretty well, although some still are works in progress:

  1. There will be a government shutdown crisis over the House budget, which will include major spending cuts and defunding of Obamacare.  Someone will blink.  My guess is it will be the Republicans. / VERDICT – Mostly right
  2. The mainstream media will steadily chew through Republican candidates until they find someone they claim to like.  Establishment Republicans will coalesce around the same person, because that person will be viewed as electable.  I just can’t figure out who that person is.   / VERDICT – Getting there, on track
  3. The price of gasoline will rise, and “drill baby drill” will be back. / VERDICT – Right
  4. The housing and the mortgage bubbles will continue to deflate, and the White House will renew its “blame Bush” messaging with even more vigor than before. / VERDICT – Right
  5. Townhall meetings during the summer of 2011 will be hotter, politically, than the summer of 2009. / VERDICT – Remains to be seen
  6. There will be war in the Middle East as a result of the build up of Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iran’s frustration with Israeli and western covert actions against Iran’s nuclear program.  It is impossible to predict the event which will be the spark, but it will be something unexpected. / VERDICT – Remains to be seen
  7. The European economic model will fail; yet it still will be the model pushed by the Democratic base. / VERDICT – Right
  8. The person who emerges as the Republican frontrunner through the process described in #2 above will be torn down by the same mainstream media outlets which promoted the person.  Establishment Republicans will blame the Tea Party movement.  This may not happen until 2012, but I didn’t want to wait until my 2012 “not predictions” to make the point. / VERDICT – On track
  9. The media ”story” of the political year will be Obama as the guy caught in the middle, the sympathetic only sane guy in the room. / VERDICT – Right
  10. Unemployment will be about what it is now, but there will be no further extensions of unemployment insurance payments beyond the current extension.  The debate will be whether to make the current extension permanent.  / VERDICT – Right about unemployment rate, insurance extension remains to be seen.


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