There is a really interesting article by Sean Trende at Real Clear Politics regarding congressional redistricting.
The common mainstream wisdom has been that redistricting really is not helping Republians that much, and that Democrats even may gain a seat or two nationwide. But Trend details how that superficial analysis vastly understates what Republicans are achieving.
The essense of Trend’s analysis is that Republicans are strenghtening districts for existing Republican Congressmen rather than trying to broaden the number of seats. This is a smart use of redistricting power because if Republicans spread themselves too thin (i.e., with just small advantages in a larger number of districts), even a small shift in voter party preference could devastate the Republican majority.
In effect, Republicans are locking the parties into the current seat allocations, with Republicans in the majority. Both parties will have a easier time retaining their current seats, and a harder time gaining seats.
By taking enough marginal districts currently held by Republicans and making them safer, Republicans can make the median congressional district — the 218th most Republican district in the Congress — one that is much more difficult for Democrats to win. Doing this would therefore make winning control of the House much more difficult for Democrats. This is where the “real” story is.
This does not guarantee a Republian majority after the 2012 elections, but makes it much more likely.
Smile, it’s not all bad news out there.
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Comments
Arizona is having a Democrat organization do the redistricting.
How about, “that all depends?”
If the GOP again does what they’ve done so many times in the past… become democrat-lite, then it really won’t make any difference.
The GOP has shown in the past that they’re capable of assuming power. But they’ve also shown themselves monumentally incapable of keeping it. And with the post election idiocy we engaged in during the lame duck session, I’m not remotely convinced.
I’m with K.J. Hinton on this. We know the Dhimocrats are mostly evil and we suspect many GOP are either stupid or avaricious – or both. Paint me doubtful.
Here is a report on North Carolina.
“if the new map or one like it passes – and it’s hard to argue that this is not an improvement over the cynical monstrosity that preceded it – then four Democrats (Mike McIntyre, Brad Miller, Larry Kissell, Heath Shuler) are in varying-but-at-least-severe trouble. Which is, of course, an absolute tragedy.”
Red State
A good overview without much analysis..
The Council of State Governments
Which takes us back to November, 2010..
Devastation: GOP Picks Up 680 State Leg. Seats
“Republicans picked up 680 seats in state legislatures, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures — the most in the modern era. To put that number in perspective: In the 1994 GOP wave, Republicans picked up 472 seats. The previous record was in the post-Watergate election of 1974, when Democrats picked up 628 seats.”
“Republicans now hold the redistricting “trifecta” — both chambers of the state legislature and the governorship — in 15 states. They also control the Nebraska governorship and the unicameral legislature, taking the number up to 16. And in North Carolina — probably the state most gerrymandered to benefit Democrats — Republicans hold both chambers of the state legislature (see Red State post above) and the Democratic governor does not have veto power over redistricting proposals.”
The GOP holds the redistricting trifecta in Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Utah, Texas, Tennessee, South Carolina, Pennsylvania, Oklahoma and Ohio – plus, as noted earlier, Nebraska and North Carolina.
Of those, South Carolina, Utah, Georgia and Texas are projected to gain seats after the census. Florida is also slated to gain, but the state just passed a ballot referendum seeking to take control of redistricting process away from the state legislature.
Ohio and Michigan are also important because they are projected to lose at least one seat, making the redistricting lines all the more important.”
National Post
I see the Council of State Governments link doesn’t seem to work, try this:
The Council of State Governments