Last June, in the midst of the “Gaza Flotilla” in which leftists joined Islamists against Israel, I asked Can Israel Survive A Second Obama Term?:

This past week has seen the coming together of the growing Islamist-Leftist Coalition in the war against Israel.

Leftists who, among other things, claim to believe in freedom of speech, women’s rights and equality for gays, are in political bed with people who would cut their throats for blasphemy, revel in abhorrent misogyny, and execute gays.

The Leftists do not see the sick irony, and the Islamists are happy for the help from these Useful Idiots….

It need not have to come to this.

While the currently fashionable argument is that that unyielding support for Israel is disloyal to the United States (“Israel-Firsters” in their words), in fact this unyielding support has kept the peace between Israel and its three major bordering nations by tamping down any hope that Israel could be destroyed.

This peace through the strength of the U.S.-Israel alliance was in the United States’ interest. By keeping nation states out of the fight against Israel we advanced our own interests….

Obama administration oratory and actions have rekindled hope for the destruction of Israel, and thereby unleashed the beast.

The damage done so far may not be irreparable, but we are on an incredibly destructive trajectory.

I really wonder whether Israel can survive a second Obama term.

Some of the commenters responding to that prior post castigated me, insisting that the threat to Israel was not from a second Obama term, but from the first.

Given where we are today, the situation has deteriorated dramatically.  I fear my readers may have been right. The threat to Israel is immediate, not long term.

The Muslim Brotherhood is staged to exert great influence, if not outright control, over Egypt in the coming year.  The Egyptian Army of 2011 is far superior to anything Israel has faced in the past, with a reported 300 F-16s and thousands of M1 Abrams Tanks, with sophisticated American-made air defense and offensive weapons. 

And it gets worse.  The arms flows to Hamas in Gaza almost certainly will increase not just in quantity but in quality with diminished Egyptian adherence to peace; Lebanon is under the hegemony of Hezbollah; and two of the most repressive and anti-Israel regimes — Iran and Syria — are treated with kid gloves.  Who knows what will happen in Jordan.

Rather than working the past two years to smooth transitions in the Middle East, the Obama administration has undercut allies without laying the foundation for stability or transition.  And into that vacuum will step the worst elements, emboldened by a pattern of the United States abandoning its allies.

Maybe it all will work out.  Perhaps Egyptians will embrace an open society and peace, and the Egyptian model will undermine the tyrannical regimes in Syria and Iran.  But I’m not optimistic.

Related Posts:
Friends of Israel, We Have A Problem
Egyptian Upheaval Shows Why Territory Still Matters for Israel

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