CQ Politics: Hanna v. Arcuri (NY-24) Tightening
Add the race in NY-24 to the list of my Top 10 races (also RI-01 and NY-22) which are tightening in the final two weeks.
From CQ Politics, Richard Hanna has pulled within 5 points of Democrat incumbent Michael Arcuri, down from 8 points just a few weeks ago:
In the 24th district, Arcuri is leading Hanna, 48 to 43 percent. That is slightly down from a poll conducted six weeks ago by Siena, in which Arcuri led 48 to 40 percent. The survey found that Hanna is better known than he was in September.
The tough campaign appears to have taken its toll on both candidates. Six weeks ago they were both viewed favorably by a two to one margin. Now each has unfavorable ratings that are almost as great as their favorable ratings.
“The negative advertising proliferating the airwaves and mailboxes of the 24th CD is having an effect on the way both candidates are viewed by voters,” Greenberg said. He also said that there is significant gender gap, with men favoring Hanna 49 to 42 percent and women backing Arcuri 54 to 36 percent.
While Ithaca is not in the district, we are in the same television market. Arcuri and the DCCC are running around-the-clock ads against Hanna, with pathetic fear-mongering about social security and outright lies (DCCC) about Hanna’s business record.
The Democrats are worried about NY-24. Richard Hanna could use your support in this final week.
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Living in NY-24 I can tell you that Hanna is gaining momentum.
I took my 2 year old son to the barber shop this morning. An elderly gentleman was in the chair getting a trim before retiring to Florida for the winter. Talk turned to politics, as they always seem to do in these settings. This traditional democrat, trying to relive the glory days of the Clinton Administration, describes Richard Hanna as the lesser of two evils. For upstate New York (Cooperstown), this is near heretical thinking. By the way the barber is a supporter because Richard gets his hair cut there every other Saturday. There is a monumental shift taking place, even in Now York.
The problem, as my friend in the chair, noted is that Carl Paladino is a drag on the party and the vote. That he threatened a reporter ends all viability as a candidate regardless of his baseball bat! I am afraid this will limit turnout or preclude a secondary democratic vote for Michael Arcuri or Kirsten Gillibrand.
Joe DioGuardi, who promises a strong finish has been touring the state since June and has overcome tremendous obstacles to be in the position of being the "51st vote" against the Obama, Reid, Pelosi trident, but he lacks cash and traditional media support. I follow the NY political blogs and it is Paladino vs Cuomo all the time. DioGuardi/Gillibrand get little interest in spite of very interesting associations that have been noted in a largely unexamined Senate candidate who has recreated herself from a socially liberal, fiscal conservative to a Chuck Schumer pawn who does what she is told to do.
Throughout her career this is demonstrably true. She ably represented the interests of the Tobacco industry as they committed perjury before congress. She, at a minimum, aided and abetted the housing crisis with her work at HUD. Again, she did what Andrew Cuomo told her to do. Now in the Senate she has been a dependable vote for Schumer, Reid and Obama. She has not a been a leader despite tremendous opportunity to take that role. She is no Hillary Clinton! She is a follower
Back to Hanna, I wouldn't trust the polls. I think the race is much closer than the 5% Siena finds. The question is do you think Paladino is going to be a factor. If he is, multiple congressional races will go from toss up to lean dem. I truly don't know.