No one gives Scott Brown, the Republican primary winner, much chance at defeating Martha Coakley, the Democratic nominee. It’s Massachusetts, and it’s to fill Ted Kennedy’s seat.

But keep an eye on Massachusetts. It’s a special election, and turnout could be low as it was in the primaries, which gives the party with the motivated base an advantage. Throw in some possible bad weather in mid-January, and anything could happen.

Brown is sending the right message:

“I’m going to win by drawing clear distinctions between myself and Martha,” he said. “I’ll bring my message to voters and let them decide if they want an independent voice in Washington watching their wallets and pocketbooks or someone in lock step with Harry Reid and the special interests who’ll raise their taxes.”

Expect Democrats to play heavily on Teddy’s memory, as they have done in the health care debate. The Catholic vote could be important here. Coakley is not just pro-choice, she has made public funding of abortion a litmus test for her support of health care legislation.

So don’t count this one out, yet. If Coakely wins, as expected, but by only single digits, that would be something. If Brown were to win, that would be something else.

You can donate to Brown’s campaign here.


Update: Jules Crittenden’s take is reasonably pessimistic, but he also points out Coakley’s vulnerabilities. I still say it’s too early to give up all hope.

Take a look also at Scott Brown receives GOP nomination, what does it mean? for a decidedly pro-Brown view of the race.

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