But EVERYTHING depends on turnout.
The Des Moines Register just released its final pre-caucus polling.
Trump is up, but its close enough that everything will depend on turnout, as the Register analysis shows:
Donald Trump has muscled ahead in Iowa, regaining his lead on the brink of the first votes being cast in the 2016 presidential race.
Trump stands at 28 percent, while rival Ted Cruz has slid to 23 percent. But there’s still a strong case for Cruz in this race — he’s more popular and respected than Trump, the final Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll shows.
“The drill-down shows, if anything, stronger alignment with Cruz than Trump, except for the horse race,” said J. Ann Selzer, the pollster for the Iowa Poll.
This could be important:
Among first-time caucusgoers, Trump has a 16-point lead. But the universe of experienced caucusgoers is bigger, where Cruz has a 3-point lead.
Here is the rest of the field. Looks like Jeb, at 2, will have some decisions to make.
The Register has detailed analyses of the support and factors by candidate.
I may add to this post later, when I have time. Wanted to get the results up as soon as possible.
Among the Democrats, it’s almost a dead heat, but Sanders has the younger, more motivated vote.
— Des Moines Register (@DMRegister) January 30, 2016
UPDATES: Some more analysis from the polling by people who had more time tonight than I did:
Full field: Trump 28 Cruz 23
Head-to-head: Cruz 53 Trump 35
You always prefer to be in the lead but Cruz is well positioned.
— Phil Kerpen (@kerpen) January 31, 2016
DMR/Bloomberg Poll trends (Oct, Dec, Jan, Final):
Trump net fav: +22, +19, +9, +3
% Trump vote: 19, 21, 22, 28
% new voters: 17, 24, 29, 40
— Adrian Gray (@adrian_gray) January 31, 2016
Multiple Internal campaign & super PAC tracking polls have Rubio above DMR (& thus CW) 15%. He’s winning expectations game before 1st caucus
— Zeke Miller (@ZekeJMiller) January 31, 2016
Can someone please tell her about the DMR poll? She seems nice and I really think she needs to be eased into Mondayhttps://t.co/GrQNbUuQZU
— Colin Diersing (@cdiersing) January 31, 2016
About the Ted Cruz mailer and the Secretary of State chewing him out, turns out he’s a Trump supporter:
— Sen. Frank Niceley (@SenFrankNiceley) January 31, 2016
— Dana Loesch (@DLoesch) January 31, 2016